Game #1 is in roughly 11 hours now. The final roster is set, and as it turns out, Rasner didn't make it after all, despite Girardi saying he wanted a long man. Instead both Ohlendorf and Bruney made it, while Albaladejo also made the team (although he'll likely be replaced as soon as Pettitte is ready). Patterson did not and was apparently never in the running, although he certainly thought he was. Girardi did imply that there would be a long man at some point, likely when the bullpen appears to be getting worn out, so it's possible we'll still see Rasner soon.
I found my overall predictions, so here they are based on not much more than gut instincts (I'm a stat guy in many ways, but I just don't have any real interest in forming some projection system to mathematically determine likely numbers...more power to those that do though, I enjoy seeing them). Obviously, these numbers aren't going to pan out, because guys will get hurt, guys will be ineffective, guys will get called up. But I don't predict for injuries or anything, so these are theoretical predictions if the 25 man roster as it stands right now (plus Pettitte and minus Albaladejo) plays the entire season intact. It won't, but I'm not predicting for that.
I'm also not entirely happy with some of them because I originally did it with the idea that Duncan and Betemit would split time at first. I altered my original predictions a bit to account for more playing time for Giambi, a lot less for Betemit, and probably a decent amount less for Duncan (especially since I also had to add Ensberg) but I didn't want to rework the whole thing, so they're not perfect. I also stuck Phil at 160 IP, no idea what his limit is.
Alex Rodriguez: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs
Bobby Abreu: .291/.398/.470, 19 Home Runs, 103 RBIs, 23 SBs
Hideki Matsui: .288/.370/.482, 23 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 3 SBs
Jorge Posada: .280/.384/.483, 21 Home Runs, 86 RBIs, 1 SB
Robinson Cano: .317/.362/.491, 18 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 5 SBs
Derek Jeter: .312/.380/.454, 14 Home Runs, 82 RBIs, 19 SBs
Jason Giambi: .252/.392/.502, 32 Home Runs, 91 RBIs, 0 SBs
Johnny Damon: .275/.358/.435, 14 Home Runs, 64 RBIs, 21 SBs
Melky Cabrera: .284/.341/.414, 11 Home Runs, 65 RBIs, 11 SBs
Shelley Duncan: .243/.320/.488, 11 Home Runs, 40 RBIs, 1 SB
Wilson Betemit: .249/.338/.451, 8 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 2 SBs
Jose Molina: .242/.281/.341, 2 Home Runs, 21 RBIs, 0 SBs
Morgan Ensberg: .250/.354/.445, 7 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 1 SB
Chien Ming Wang: 19-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 118 Ks, 211 IP
Andy Pettitte: 17-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 137 Ks, 210 IP
Phil Hughes: 12-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 142 Ks, 160 IP
Ian Kennedy: 12-8, 4.12 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 139 Ks, 165 IP
Mike Mussina: 11-9, 4.68 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 85 Ks, 130 IP
Joba Chamberlain: 9-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 145 Ks, 142 IP
Mariano Rivera: 3-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 70 Ks, 72 IP, 34 Saves
Kyle Farnsworth: 2-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 60 Ks, 61 IP
LaTroy Hawkins: 3-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 32 Ks, 58 IP
Ross Ohlendorf: 4-4, 4.15 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 55 Ks, 65 IP
Brian Bruney: 2-5, 4.40 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 70 Ks, 66 IP
Billy Traber: 1-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 22 Ks, 35 IP
Traber's numbers are also partly based on the idea that he'd be primarily a guy who faces lefties. If he gets into facing righties often I'd expect more innings but a higher ERA and WHIP.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Opening Day Nearing...
So as you can see I stopped doing the predictions, because frankly I've been too busy. I may still have them written down somewhere and if I do, I'll post them without any real explanation just for the heck of it.
The season starts Monday for the Yankees, and the roster is close to being finalized. I surprisingly (to me) wasn't that far off, although it isn't set yet. I had Nick Green rather than Morgan Ensberg, but the original post went up before Ensberg was even a possibility. And it looks like Rasner will make the roster, while Patterson has really opened some eyes and could get that last spot.
Looks to me like we have 24 spots essentuiually filled, and a three man race for the final spot.
1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Robinson Cano
4. Jorge Posada
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Jason Giambi
10. Wilson Betemit
11. Jose Molina
12. Shelley Duncan
13. Morgan Ensberg
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Mike Mussina
16. Andy Pettitte
17. Ian Kennedy
18. Phil Hughes
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Joba Chamberlain
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Kyle Farnsworth
23. Billy Traber
24. Darrell Rasner
25. ?
Traber's the only non Igawa lefty left as far as I remember, with Henn on the DL and Phillips sent down. He's pretty much made the team unless Girardi changes his mind about carrying a lefty. As for the long man spot that Girardi has said he wants, Igawa hasn't pitched well at all, and Karstens appears to have been injured today, which leaves Rasner as the only real option (and the person I would have picked anyway).
That leaves one spot. Seems like it's a three man race at this point, between Ross Ohlendorf, Brian Bruney, and Scott Patterson. Ohlendorf seems least likely to me right now (with 2 more games remaining for that to change). He's pitched very well but has allowed the most hits out of the three (none have walked a lot of guys) and in theory could gain some benefit from being in AAA for a little bit. Patterson has pitched far and away better than any of the three, and better than anyone in camp too. It's not even close. But he's also never pitched above AA, so they may want to see what he can do in AAA first. Bruney has pitched very well and probably has the least to gain from being sent to the minors; at this point he'd just be sitting around waiting for a callup.
All three have options remaining as is my understanding, so that wouldn't factor in. I think it's between Bruney and Patterson right now, and it will depend solely on whether Patterson was ever really "in the race" or whether it was always intended he'd be sent down unless every other reliever was god awful. Ohlendorf still has a shot though.
The season starts Monday for the Yankees, and the roster is close to being finalized. I surprisingly (to me) wasn't that far off, although it isn't set yet. I had Nick Green rather than Morgan Ensberg, but the original post went up before Ensberg was even a possibility. And it looks like Rasner will make the roster, while Patterson has really opened some eyes and could get that last spot.
Looks to me like we have 24 spots essentuiually filled, and a three man race for the final spot.
1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Robinson Cano
4. Jorge Posada
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Jason Giambi
10. Wilson Betemit
11. Jose Molina
12. Shelley Duncan
13. Morgan Ensberg
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Mike Mussina
16. Andy Pettitte
17. Ian Kennedy
18. Phil Hughes
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Joba Chamberlain
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Kyle Farnsworth
23. Billy Traber
24. Darrell Rasner
25. ?
Traber's the only non Igawa lefty left as far as I remember, with Henn on the DL and Phillips sent down. He's pretty much made the team unless Girardi changes his mind about carrying a lefty. As for the long man spot that Girardi has said he wants, Igawa hasn't pitched well at all, and Karstens appears to have been injured today, which leaves Rasner as the only real option (and the person I would have picked anyway).
That leaves one spot. Seems like it's a three man race at this point, between Ross Ohlendorf, Brian Bruney, and Scott Patterson. Ohlendorf seems least likely to me right now (with 2 more games remaining for that to change). He's pitched very well but has allowed the most hits out of the three (none have walked a lot of guys) and in theory could gain some benefit from being in AAA for a little bit. Patterson has pitched far and away better than any of the three, and better than anyone in camp too. It's not even close. But he's also never pitched above AA, so they may want to see what he can do in AAA first. Bruney has pitched very well and probably has the least to gain from being sent to the minors; at this point he'd just be sitting around waiting for a callup.
All three have options remaining as is my understanding, so that wouldn't factor in. I think it's between Bruney and Patterson right now, and it will depend solely on whether Patterson was ever really "in the race" or whether it was always intended he'd be sent down unless every other reliever was god awful. Ohlendorf still has a shot though.
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