Friday, October 3, 2008

Offseason!

Yay offseason!

Okay, not so much. Obviously the Yankees did not get it done this year, but we knew inevitably this would happen sooner or later. There were a lot of factors that fed into this...the Rays taking off this year rather than next year or in 2010 was one thing, the Yanks would have theoretically won the Wild Card if the Rays had won 88 games or less (which still would have been very impressive). Losing Wang for the year and Joba as a starter for the last two months were both huge, huge losses. Losing Posada's bat hurt as well, although Molina did a great job defensively and perhaps helped the pitching staff. Plus it didn't help that overall Cano pretty much sucked and Melky got really bad really fast. Other teams got hurt too, no excuses, but Wang and Posada missed most of the season rather than just a month or two, and their replacements were getting hurt as well. It makes things difficult. There were problems with the team anyway, but they shouldn't have been as inconsistent as they ended up being, and I suspect that if Wang, Posada, and Joba had stayed healthy, the Yankees might still be playing.

Or hey, maybe not. That's baseball.

So what do we have for next year?

I'd say the following players are sure things short of a trade (and I'm not gonna assume one at the moment):

1. Derek Jeter (Shortstop)
2. Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)
3. Johnny Damon (Left Field)
4. Hideki Matsui (DH)
5. Robinson Cano (Second Base)
6. Jorge Posada (Catcher)
7. Jose Molina (Backup Catcher)
8. Xavier Nady (Right Field probably)
9. Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder...I don't think he's a free agent yet)
10. Chien Ming Wang (Starter)
11. Joba Chamberlain (Starter)
12. Mariano Rivera (Closer)

And that's pretty much it. Those are the guys who, short of a trade, are guaranteed spots. I put Joba as a starter based on Cashman saying the plan now is for him to start all season, obviously that could change. I'm also not positive on Betemit's status, but I think he's signed through 2009. There's also some question on Posada, but for now I'm assuming he's a catcher.

That leaves a lot of work. Center field, first base, backup outfielder, additional bench player, three more starters, and probably 6 more guys in the bullpen. Obviously some will be filled with guys on the team. Phil Coke certainly looks likely to fill a bullpen spot, if he doesn't get turned into a starter. Brian Bruney also looked great and is a pretty good assumption for a bullpen spot. So let's add those two.

13. Phil Coke (Reliever)
14. Brian Bruney (Reliever)

Here's where we start venturing away from "Here are the sure things" into "What would you do?".

I think Brett Gardner is a good bet for some spot on this team. He's either going to be the starting centerfielder or the backup outfielder I suspect, depending on whether the Yankees sign a free agent centerfielder. Personally, I'd pass and give Gardner a shot. Risky, yes, because if he hits like he did when he first got called up, that's a huge hole that will do a lot of damage to the lineup. But if he can hit even halfway decent, his speed and strong defense will allow him to fill the centerfield and 9th in the order spots at least until Austin Jackson is ready. For me, I'm going to fill him into my starting centerfielder spot.

15. Brett Gardner (Centerfield)

The fourth outfielder should probably be either Melky or Christian. I've soured on Melky at this point, and I think it might be better to go with Christian, who can be used as a pinch runner as well.

16. Justin Christian (Backup Outfielder)

Let's see, back to that bullpen. Four more spots to fill, and no easy choices. Sanchez and Melancon both interest me, but they might not be ready. There's also Marte to consider, who has an option that may get picked up. He struggled in August but looked good in September. If Sanchez or Melancon seem ready, I'd let him walk and take the draft pick...if they're not, the Yanks might need him. Veras struggled toward the end of the year, but he was overall solid, and while he may not be a closer or even setup man, I think he can be a useful reliever. Edwar is more difficult, because he got REALLY terrible in August and September. Robertson didn't look fantastic but he did have a good strikeout rate; I'd give him another shot. A long man might be nice as well, but it could depend on who makes the team as a starter. I'll give it to Dan Giese for now because he did look solid enough and I think the potential starting rotation guys that don't make the team may be better served starting in AAA until they're needed.

17. Jose Veras (Reliever)
18. David Robertson (Reliever)
19. Damaso Marte (Reliever)
20. Dan Giese (Long Reliever)

That leaves us with three starters, a first baseman, and then the last bench guy. Start with an easy one, how about first base? Well, he may not want to come, but I throw money at Mark Teixeira. He's young enough, he's very good defensively, he's a good hitter as well.

21. Mark Teixeira (First Base)

How about those three starters? Again, one is an easy choice if he's willing to come here, and that's CC Sabathia. He gives the Yanks the ace they need, and costs only draft picks. I'm a bit concerned about overuse (over 250 innings pre playoffs? Yikes), but I'd still throw the money at him. That gives you CC as your number 1, Wang as your number 2. I'm making Joba the number 5 for these purposes due to his likely innings restrictions...he'll probably need to serve as the 5th starter to keep the innings down. So the Yanks still need a 3rd and 4th. First off, I'd like Mussina to return. I'm not so sure he will, however. If he agrees to then I absolutely resign him and plug him into the rotation. If he doesn't I suppose Andy Pettitte can replace him, but I'm somewhat concerned about Pettitte right now. For the other spot, you can use one of the kids (Aceves, Hughes), but you can argue relying on the kids without a real backup plan is what hurt the Yankees this year. Also Hughes might be best served by spending a little time in AAA. I'd like to sign an innings eater...perhaps Lowe or Garland. There's also a possibility that both Pettitte and Moose return, but I'd personally rather avoid Andy unless Mussina retires. I wouldn't want to sign both Lowe and Garland though, there's not much of a need for the Yankees to sign two middle rotation guys to "long term" contracts (by that I mean longer than the one or maybe two years Pettitte would probably want). Also, AJ Burnett has the most upside of any of these guys except CC, but may also cost more money/more years than is ideal, and the injury risk is there.

22. CC Sabathia (Starter)
23. Mike Mussina (Starter)
24. Derek Lowe (Starter)

And that last bench spot can go to anyone, it doesn't really matter at this point. Preferably a slugger of some kind, but I'm not sure who offhand.

This would give the Yanks a 2009 team of:

1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
4. Mark Teixeira (1B)
5. Xavier Nady (RF)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Jorge Posada (C)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Brett Gardner (LF)

Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien Ming Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Derek Lowe
5. Joba Chamberlain

Bullpen:

1. Mariano Rivera
2. Damaso Marte
3. Brian Bruney
4. Phil Coke
5. Jose Veras
6. David Robertson
7. Dan Giese

Bench:

1. Wilson Betemit
2. Justin Christian
3. Jose Molina
4. ?

Not too bad. The lineup isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the past, but it's potentially very solid and would help the improved starting rotation and (hopefully) improved bullpen.