Comparing the AL East, Part 3

We left off on second base, so let's go to shortstop.

Shortstop:

1. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays: There are some concerns about Reyes moving to a new league, playing on the turf, etc, but he's still a great player and the best shortstop in the AL East at this point.

2. Derek Jeter, Yankees: I'm working under the assumption that Jeter doesn't miss much time; if he does, then Nunez would take his place and move farther down this list. Jeter is getting old and I am concerned about his ankle, but he's still a solid player. Even if he can't repeat last year, I still like him more than most of the shortstops in the divison.

3. JJ Hardy, Orioles: I went back and forth on Hardy or Escobar...I ended up going with Hardy, because the power is for real. He's not going to hit for a great average and he's not going to get on base, but at least he provides power at a position that isn't famous for it.

4. Yunel Escobar, Rays: If Escobar had had a better 2012, he'd rank above Hardy. While he has very little power, he's always done a good job getting on base. Last year, though, he had only a .300 OBP (and still no power). Moving to a pitchers park, that worries me a lot.

5. Stephen Drew, Red Sox: Like Jeter, this is dependent on Drew returning soon, although the ranking wouldn't change either way. Drew has had problems staying healthy in recent years, and simply hasn't put up the numbers he used to (which were usually solid but not amazing). Until I see him healthy, I can't rank him any higher.


Third Base:

1. Evan Longoria, Rays: I actually think Longoria is a tad overrated. He's a great hitter, but I think people view him as better than he is. He's had some injury problems and hasn't quite put everything together in the same year. He's still excellent, but the monster season hasn't happened yet. That said, I would not be the least bit shocked if that season does happen, and he's clearly the best third baseman in the division.

2. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: Based mainly on his upside and the fact that he's actually done SOMETHING in the majors, although last year was not very good. He'll start the season on the DL, and I'm not sure how much time he'll miss...if he misses significant time, his replacements drop down to the #5 spot, as I don't like either of the possibilities.

3. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox: I'm actually not a huge Middlebrooks fan; I think he's fine but not as good as he was last year. That said, I can't pretend last year didn't happen, he did a very good job and I do expect him to be solid again this year. He has less upside than Lawrie or Machado, but he had a clearly better year than either guy.

4. Kevin Youkilis/Jayson Nix, Yankees: Again, a platoon here, with Nix playing third against lefties and Youkilis playing third against righties (reportedly). I like Youkilis to bounce back a bit this year, closer to his 2011 numbers over his 2012 numbers. Nix brings it down a bit, although he's okay against lefties.

5. Manny Machado, Orioles: I was prepared to put Machado at #4 based on upside, but actually looking at his numbers, I really need to see more. He wasn't that good in 2012, which is totally understandable for a rookie jumping from AA, but he honestly wasn't that great in 2011 and 2012 either in the minors. He certainly has upside and I would not be at all surprised to see him move up the list here, but until he hits like we think he can, I can't put him higher.


Catcher:

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: Wieters hasn't quite reached the levels people hoped for, but I think he's clearly the best catcher in the division right now.

2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox: Saltalamacchia and Arencibia are actually extremely similar hitters, but Saltalamacchia has a little more power, so I went with him.

3. JP Arencibia, Blue Jays: I'm not a huge fan of Arencibia, but he does have some power, so he'll rank middle of the pack. Outside of Wieters, the catching in the AL East is pretty weak offensively, with some one dimensional players and some defense only guys.

4. Jose Molina, Rays: I expect Molina to be the worst offensively on this list (although it may be close with the two Yankees), but I like his defense, so here he is.

5. Francisco Cervelli/Chris Stewart, Yankees: It's surprising how many times I have to include two players for the Yankees. We don't really know which guy will get more starts at catcher or if they'll split it. Cervelli will likely hit a bit better, but Stewart is probably better defensively. Neither guy is likely to do much hitting. If Cervelli can improve his defense, he could move up a bit based on the ability to kind of get on base, but he still has no power. Catcher is very much a weak spot for the Yankees this year.


Right Field:

1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Bautista had a down year last year (compared to 2011) and had an injury that concerns me a bit, but by now he should be fine. He's the best right fielder in the division, in any case.

2. Ben Zobrist, Rays: I'm a big fan of Zobrist. Some of his value comes from his ability to play a ton of different positions, but he still gets on base a lot and contributes in many ways.

3. Nick Markakis, Orioles: Markakis hasn't quite broken out as many thought he might, but Markakis is still going to give you a good average, get on base a decent amount, and hit a lot of doubles. He's a solid player.

4. Shane Victorino, Red Sox: Victorino was bad last year, but I do think he'll bounce back a little bit. He's got more power than Ichiro, which is why he ranks here.

5. Ichiro Suzuki, Yankees: I actually like Ichiro a bit this year, as I could see a power increase (say, 10 home runs and maybe even slightly more with the short porch). His defense remains great, but the days of Ichiro hitting well over .300 with 40 stolen bases may very well be over.


Centerfield:

1. Adam Jones, Orioles: I had a lot of trouble deciding who to put first, but durability put Jones here. 2012 seemed like a breakout year for Jones, and I could definitely see him repeating.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: He has the highest upside of any of the centerfielders here, and he was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2011. That said, I just don't think the power was for real. He'll still steal you a ton of bases with 10ish home runs, and there's tremendous value there. Just not more than Adam Jones. I still might have put him higher based on that one MVP caliber season, but his injury history pushes him down.

3. Brett Gardner, Yankees: Granderson will be here eventually, but since May seems to be the best case scenario for Granderson, I'm not including him. I'm a big fan of Gardner, and while there are some guys on this list who have the ability to theoretically get on base a good amount, Ellsbury and Gardner are the only two who have actually done it over a full season. Gardner was a little off in 2011, and missed most of 2012 with an injury, but he's looked solid this spring, and I think you'll get a good season out of him. Plus, defensively, he's one of the best in baseball.

4. Desmond Jennings, Rays: I like Jennings potential, with some good speed and some power. The problem is, as of now he hasn't really gotten on base much in the majors. He had a great OBP in the minors so there's reason to think he could improve there, but for now I have him ranked below the guys who have actually done it in the majors.

5. Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: Rasmus had one really good year in 2010 and that's it. He's had an OBP below .300 for two straight years now. He's got some power, but that's about it. If he could improve his OBP he might be higher, but until then, he's last.


Left Field:

1. Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays: I'm as surprised as you. It speaks more to the ugliness of left field in this division, but still. Melky the past two years has been a very solid player, hitting for a high average with a ton of doubles to go along with double digit home runs and stolen bases. PEDs are definitely a question with him, and there will likely be some regression, but even so, he's a good player.

2. Matt Joyce, Rays: Joyce had an off year in 2012 and has struggled to play a full season, but when healthy he's a solid player with some power.

3. Jackie Bradley Jr./Jonny Gomes, Red Sox: This is a really tough one to rank, because there are a ton of questions. Will Ortiz miss a lot of time, or only a couple of weeks? Is Bradley headed for the minors when he returns no matter what, or can he keep the job? Were they honestly going to play Jonny Gomes everyday or did they have a platoon of some sort? If it's Bradley, this is an upside ranking, because he had a fantastic year in 2012, but really has not had much time in the minors and is jumping straight from AA. If Gomes, he's a solid hitter coming off a great season (in Oakland of all places), but he can't hit righties well and he's constantly injured.

4. Vernon Wells/Maybe Brennan Boesch, Yankees: THAT'S RIGHT. I SAID IT. Wells isn't dead last on the list. Two reasons for this. First, it's possible Boesch is part of a platoon with him, which would greatly increase his value as Wells actually hits lefties quite well in his career (not so much last year, but even in his terrible 2011 he killed lefties). Even if it's just Wells straight up (until Granderson returns), he does have some power. Besides, isn't Wells just the kind of guy who has been bad for an extended period of time, then suddenly sees a resurgence in New York? We can hope, right?

5. Nate McLouth, Orioles: Not a fan of McLouth (clearly). He's been really bad for three years now. He did improve some with the Orioles, but the sample size isn't big enough for me to declare him back after some really bad seasons with Atlanta and some really horrible at bats with the Pirates.


Designated Hitter:

1. David Ortiz, Red Sox: This assumes health. Ortiz is clearly the best DH option in the division and it's not close. Moving on.

2. Travis Hafner, Yankees: A huge drop from Ortiz to Hafner. Hafner has a ton of trouble staying healthy and had a bad year in 2012, but hopefully he can bounce back some. He still hit for good power and did manage a respectable OBP (especially considering how low his batting average got). I could also see Hafner platooning with Boesch, especially once Granderson returns.

3. Adam Lind, Blue Jays: What happened to you, Adam? After a great 2009 he totally fell apart. I could easily see him being lower on this list, but the 20-25 home run power keeps him here. Yikes, though.

4. Nolan Reimold, Orioles: I'd have ranked him higher, but really, he hasn't played more than roughly half a season, ever. Last year was way too small a sample size to be at all meaningful. He did have a solid half a season in 2011 though, so here he is.

5. Luke Scott, Rays: Scott will open the season on the DL, but should be back soon. I'm not a fan. He kills righties but can't hit lefties, and he's coming off a bad season. The injury doesn't help either.


I was going to rank the overall lineups, but the truth is, every single lineup here has some holes. Some are better than others, but none truly stand out and any of these lineups could be the best in the division simply via one player overachieving.

So how do I rank the teams overall? First off, this is VERY close and I could see any team finishing in any spot. I don't expect a near 30 win difference between first and last place, like in previous years.

#1. New York Yankees: This is based on the fact that I like their pitching the best. Their lineup has serious issues and unlike nearly every year in recent memory, I don't believe I would rank their offense #1 in the division...however, I'm not so sure I'd rank them last either, especially since at least some of their injured guys should be returning, and if used properly, they do have some interesting platoon guys.

#2. Tampa Bay Rays: Their pitching is only slightly worse than the Yankees (and could even be better), and their offense is decent enough for the division they're in. The main difference to me is the Rays are essentially what you see is what you get offensively, whereas the Yankees could be getting a lot of injured players back, leaving only catcher as a real hole. If some of these guys stay out longer, different story, but that's why I rank the Rays second.

#3. Toronto Blue Jays: They have the potential to be the #1 team, but I do think people are, as usual, overselling them because they "won the offseason". Bonifacio and Buehrle are nothing special. The other three players they got could be, but every one of them has serious questions. Yhe Jays have multiple holes in their lineup (catcher and center field stand out, Lawrie has to show more when he comes back, their DH hasn't been good in years, etc). If everyone stays healthy and plays to their potential, this could be a World Series winning team, but I'm sorry, I think it's garbage when I see writers declare the worst case scenario for the Yankees, the best case for Toronto, and use that as evidence to show Toronto will be better. Most teams don't hit their best or worst case scenarios, and if that happens, I think the Rays and Yankees are better.

#4. Boston Red Sox: I actually think the Red Sox will be better than they were last year, by a decent amount. But the bottom line is, I think their pitching is behind the three teams above them in the division, and their lineup, like everyone else, has some holes (catcher outside of some home runs, shortstop) and a huge question mark in left field. If Bradley is as good as they obviously hope or Gomes hits like he did last year and stays mostly healthy, they could have the best lineup in the division, but even then it'd have a couple holes, and that's a lot of ifs.

#5. Baltimore Orioles: I just think they overachieved last year. They have some good young hitters but just as many holes as everyone else in the division. The Orioles pitching is what puts them last for me. I just don't think they're as good as they were last year, not even close. I don't think they'll be as bad as some think, but to me we're looking at more of a slightly below .500 or right around .500 team, and I think everyone else in the division is more of a 83-89 win team.

Happy Opening Day!