tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58132862641847519672024-03-13T14:52:50.533-05:00Yankee LegendsKyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-59273385949466707142013-04-01T01:12:00.001-05:002013-04-01T01:12:36.516-05:00Comparing the AL East, Part 3We left off on second base, so let's go to shortstop.<br /><br />Shortstop:<br /><br />1. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays: There are some concerns about Reyes moving to a new league, playing on the turf, etc, but he's still a great player and the best shortstop in the AL East at this point.<br /><br />2. Derek Jeter, Yankees: I'm working under the assumption that Jeter doesn't miss much time; if he does, then Nunez would take his place and move farther down this list. Jeter is getting old and I am concerned about his ankle, but he's still a solid player. Even if he can't repeat last year, I still like him more than most of the shortstops in the divison.<br /><br />3. JJ Hardy, Orioles: I went back and forth on Hardy or Escobar...I ended up going with Hardy, because the power is for real. He's not going to hit for a great average and he's not going to get on base, but at least he provides power at a position that isn't famous for it.<br /><br />4. Yunel Escobar, Rays: If Escobar had had a better 2012, he'd rank above Hardy. While he has very little power, he's always done a good job getting on base. Last year, though, he had only a .300 OBP (and still no power). Moving to a pitchers park, that worries me a lot.<br /><br />5. Stephen Drew, Red Sox: Like Jeter, this is dependent on Drew returning soon, although the ranking wouldn't change either way. Drew has had problems staying healthy in recent years, and simply hasn't put up the numbers he used to (which were usually solid but not amazing). Until I see him healthy, I can't rank him any higher.<br /><br /><br />Third Base:<br /><br />1. Evan Longoria, Rays: I actually think Longoria is a tad overrated. He's a great hitter, but I think people view him as better than he is. He's had some injury problems and hasn't quite put everything together in the same year. He's still excellent, but the monster season hasn't happened yet. That said, I would not be the least bit shocked if that season does happen, and he's clearly the best third baseman in the division.<br /><br />2. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: Based mainly on his upside and the fact that he's actually done SOMETHING in the majors, although last year was not very good. He'll start the season on the DL, and I'm not sure how much time he'll miss...if he misses significant time, his replacements drop down to the #5 spot, as I don't like either of the possibilities.<br /><br />3. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox: I'm actually not a huge Middlebrooks fan; I think he's fine but not as good as he was last year. That said, I can't pretend last year didn't happen, he did a very good job and I do expect him to be solid again this year. He has less upside than Lawrie or Machado, but he had a clearly better year than either guy. <br /><br />4. Kevin Youkilis/Jayson Nix, Yankees: Again, a platoon here, with Nix playing third against lefties and Youkilis playing third against righties (reportedly). I like Youkilis to bounce back a bit this year, closer to his 2011 numbers over his 2012 numbers. Nix brings it down a bit, although he's okay against lefties. <br /><br />5. Manny Machado, Orioles: I was prepared to put Machado at #4 based on upside, but actually looking at his numbers, I really need to see more. He wasn't that good in 2012, which is totally understandable for a rookie jumping from AA, but he honestly wasn't that great in 2011 and 2012 either in the minors. He certainly has upside and I would not be at all surprised to see him move up the list here, but until he hits like we think he can, I can't put him higher.<br /><br /><br />Catcher:<br /><br />1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: Wieters hasn't quite reached the levels people hoped for, but I think he's clearly the best catcher in the division right now.<br /><br />2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox: Saltalamacchia and Arencibia are actually extremely similar hitters, but Saltalamacchia has a little more power, so I went with him.<br /><br />3. JP Arencibia, Blue Jays: I'm not a huge fan of Arencibia, but he does have some power, so he'll rank middle of the pack. Outside of Wieters, the catching in the AL East is pretty weak offensively, with some one dimensional players and some defense only guys. <br /><br />4. Jose Molina, Rays: I expect Molina to be the worst offensively on this list (although it may be close with the two Yankees), but I like his defense, so here he is.<br /><br />5. Francisco Cervelli/Chris Stewart, Yankees: It's surprising how many times I have to include two players for the Yankees. We don't really know which guy will get more starts at catcher or if they'll split it. Cervelli will likely hit a bit better, but Stewart is probably better defensively. Neither guy is likely to do much hitting. If Cervelli can improve his defense, he could move up a bit based on the ability to kind of get on base, but he still has no power. Catcher is very much a weak spot for the Yankees this year.<br /><br /><br />Right Field:<br /><br />1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Bautista had a down year last year (compared to 2011) and had an injury that concerns me a bit, but by now he should be fine. He's the best right fielder in the division, in any case.<br /><br />2. Ben Zobrist, Rays: I'm a big fan of Zobrist. Some of his value comes from his ability to play a ton of different positions, but he still gets on base a lot and contributes in many ways.<br /><br />3. Nick Markakis, Orioles: Markakis hasn't quite broken out as many thought he might, but Markakis is still going to give you a good average, get on base a decent amount, and hit a lot of doubles. He's a solid player.<br /><br />4. Shane Victorino, Red Sox: Victorino was bad last year, but I do think he'll bounce back a little bit. He's got more power than Ichiro, which is why he ranks here.<br /><br />5. Ichiro Suzuki, Yankees: I actually like Ichiro a bit this year, as I could see a power increase (say, 10 home runs and maybe even slightly more with the short porch). His defense remains great, but the days of Ichiro hitting well over .300 with 40 stolen bases may very well be over.<br /><br /><br />Centerfield:<br /><br />1. Adam Jones, Orioles: I had a lot of trouble deciding who to put first, but durability put Jones here. 2012 seemed like a breakout year for Jones, and I could definitely see him repeating.<br /><br />2. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: He has the highest upside of any of the centerfielders here, and he was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2011. That said, I just don't think the power was for real. He'll still steal you a ton of bases with 10ish home runs, and there's tremendous value there. Just not more than Adam Jones. I still might have put him higher based on that one MVP caliber season, but his injury history pushes him down.<br /><br />3. Brett Gardner, Yankees: Granderson will be here eventually, but since May seems to be the best case scenario for Granderson, I'm not including him. I'm a big fan of Gardner, and while there are some guys on this list who have the ability to theoretically get on base a good amount, Ellsbury and Gardner are the only two who have actually done it over a full season. Gardner was a little off in 2011, and missed most of 2012 with an injury, but he's looked solid this spring, and I think you'll get a good season out of him. Plus, defensively, he's one of the best in baseball.<br /><br />4. Desmond Jennings, Rays: I like Jennings potential, with some good speed and some power. The problem is, as of now he hasn't really gotten on base much in the majors. He had a great OBP in the minors so there's reason to think he could improve there, but for now I have him ranked below the guys who have actually done it in the majors.<br /><br />5. Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: Rasmus had one really good year in 2010 and that's it. He's had an OBP below .300 for two straight years now. He's got some power, but that's about it. If he could improve his OBP he might be higher, but until then, he's last.<br /><br /><br />Left Field:<br /><br />1. Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays: I'm as surprised as you. It speaks more to the ugliness of left field in this division, but still. Melky the past two years has been a very solid player, hitting for a high average with a ton of doubles to go along with double digit home runs and stolen bases. PEDs are definitely a question with him, and there will likely be some regression, but even so, he's a good player.<br /><br />2. Matt Joyce, Rays: Joyce had an off year in 2012 and has struggled to play a full season, but when healthy he's a solid player with some power.<br /><br />3. Jackie Bradley Jr./Jonny Gomes, Red Sox: This is a really tough one to rank, because there are a ton of questions. Will Ortiz miss a lot of time, or only a couple of weeks? Is Bradley headed for the minors when he returns no matter what, or can he keep the job? Were they honestly going to play Jonny Gomes everyday or did they have a platoon of some sort? If it's Bradley, this is an upside ranking, because he had a fantastic year in 2012, but really has not had much time in the minors and is jumping straight from AA. If Gomes, he's a solid hitter coming off a great season (in Oakland of all places), but he can't hit righties well and he's constantly injured. <br /><br />4. Vernon Wells/Maybe Brennan Boesch, Yankees: THAT'S RIGHT. I SAID IT. Wells isn't dead last on the list. Two reasons for this. First, it's possible Boesch is part of a platoon with him, which would greatly increase his value as Wells actually hits lefties quite well in his career (not so much last year, but even in his terrible 2011 he killed lefties). Even if it's just Wells straight up (until Granderson returns), he does have some power. Besides, isn't Wells just the kind of guy who has been bad for an extended period of time, then suddenly sees a resurgence in New York? We can hope, right?<br /><br />5. Nate McLouth, Orioles: Not a fan of McLouth (clearly). He's been really bad for three years now. He did improve some with the Orioles, but the sample size isn't big enough for me to declare him back after some really bad seasons with Atlanta and some really horrible at bats with the Pirates.<br /><br /><br />Designated Hitter:<br /><br />1. David Ortiz, Red Sox: This assumes health. Ortiz is clearly the best DH option in the division and it's not close. Moving on.<br /><br />2. Travis Hafner, Yankees: A huge drop from Ortiz to Hafner. Hafner has a ton of trouble staying healthy and had a bad year in 2012, but hopefully he can bounce back some. He still hit for good power and did manage a respectable OBP (especially considering how low his batting average got). I could also see Hafner platooning with Boesch, especially once Granderson returns. <br /><br />3. Adam Lind, Blue Jays: What happened to you, Adam? After a great 2009 he totally fell apart. I could easily see him being lower on this list, but the 20-25 home run power keeps him here. Yikes, though.<br /><br />4. Nolan Reimold, Orioles: I'd have ranked him higher, but really, he hasn't played more than roughly half a season, ever. Last year was way too small a sample size to be at all meaningful. He did have a solid half a season in 2011 though, so here he is.<br /><br />5. Luke Scott, Rays: Scott will open the season on the DL, but should be back soon. I'm not a fan. He kills righties but can't hit lefties, and he's coming off a bad season. The injury doesn't help either.<br /><br /><br />I was going to rank the overall lineups, but the truth is, every single lineup here has some holes. Some are better than others, but none truly stand out and any of these lineups could be the best in the division simply via one player overachieving. <br /><br />So how do I rank the teams overall? First off, this is VERY close and I could see any team finishing in any spot. I don't expect a near 30 win difference between first and last place, like in previous years. <br /><br />#1. New York Yankees: This is based on the fact that I like their pitching the best. Their lineup has serious issues and unlike nearly every year in recent memory, I don't believe I would rank their offense #1 in the division...however, I'm not so sure I'd rank them last either, especially since at least some of their injured guys should be returning, and if used properly, they do have some interesting platoon guys.<br /><br />#2. Tampa Bay Rays: Their pitching is only slightly worse than the Yankees (and could even be better), and their offense is decent enough for the division they're in. The main difference to me is the Rays are essentially what you see is what you get offensively, whereas the Yankees could be getting a lot of injured players back, leaving only catcher as a real hole. If some of these guys stay out longer, different story, but that's why I rank the Rays second. <br /><br />#3. Toronto Blue Jays: They have the potential to be the #1 team, but I do think people are, as usual, overselling them because they "won the offseason". Bonifacio and Buehrle are nothing special. The other three players they got could be, but every one of them has serious questions. Yhe Jays have multiple holes in their lineup (catcher and center field stand out, Lawrie has to show more when he comes back, their DH hasn't been good in years, etc). If everyone stays healthy and plays to their potential, this could be a World Series winning team, but I'm sorry, I think it's garbage when I see writers declare the worst case scenario for the Yankees, the best case for Toronto, and use that as evidence to show Toronto will be better. Most teams don't hit their best or worst case scenarios, and if that happens, I think the Rays and Yankees are better.<br /><br />#4. Boston Red Sox: I actually think the Red Sox will be better than they were last year, by a decent amount. But the bottom line is, I think their pitching is behind the three teams above them in the division, and their lineup, like everyone else, has some holes (catcher outside of some home runs, shortstop) and a huge question mark in left field. If Bradley is as good as they obviously hope or Gomes hits like he did last year and stays mostly healthy, they could have the best lineup in the division, but even then it'd have a couple holes, and that's a lot of ifs. <br /><br />#5. Baltimore Orioles: I just think they overachieved last year. They have some good young hitters but just as many holes as everyone else in the division. The Orioles pitching is what puts them last for me. I just don't think they're as good as they were last year, not even close. I don't think they'll be as bad as some think, but to me we're looking at more of a slightly below .500 or right around .500 team, and I think everyone else in the division is more of a 83-89 win team. <br /><br />Happy Opening Day!<br />Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-70230566111940853522013-03-31T20:45:00.001-05:002013-03-31T20:45:02.497-05:00Comparing the AL East Teams, Part 2Yesterday I compared the starting rotations for the AL East teams; today I''ll look at the closers, and start the position rankings. Bullpens in general fluctuate so much that I'm reluctant to grade the rest of the bullpens...it's difficult to see who is going to pitch in what situation for many of them. The closers are fairly straight forward though.<br /><br />Closer:<br /><br />1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: It's interesting just how good the AL East is for closers. Every single team has a guy I consider a legitimate guy. In this case, the only thing that gives me pause about Mariano is last years injury; however, it shouldn't effect his pitching. I fully expect him to return to the old Mariano.<br /><br />2. Fernando Rodney, Rays: I really, really hesitated on this one, because Fernando Rodney of 2007-2011 is easily the worst of the 5 pitchers we're looking at here. But he was so incredibly dominant last year that I can't put him lower. That said, there was definitely some luck involved, and his walk rate last year was mind boggingly lower than he's ever had before, i just can't see him repeating it. Still, with the Rays defense behind him and the possibility that he did figure something out, I'll rank him here.<br /><br />3. Casey Janssen, Blue Jays: He took over partway through the year and pitched great. He's been borderline elite for two seasons now, and had a fantastic strikeout to walk ratio last year. The only thing that I'm concerned about is offseason shoulder surgery. <br /><br />4. Joel Hanrahan, Red Sox: Hanrahan is a very good pitcher who has been a strong closer for two years now. He's moving to more of a hitters ballpark in a hitters league, but I do expect him to be good. That walk rate keeps me from moving him higher, though.<br /><br />5. Jim Johnson, Orioles: Johnson had a great year in 2012, and I think he's better than most people think. That said, he doesn't strike guys out. I really considered moving him above Hanrahan, but I decided not to based on that. Honestly, though, the AL East is strong in closers. <br /><br />Combined with the starting rotation, I'm fairly comfortable saying the Yankees and Rays are neck and neck for best pitching in the AL East, and I give the slight edge to the Yankees. I would also not be surprised at all if the Blue Jays ended the year with the best pitching; they have the talent. The Red Sox are a step behind but still have solid pitching. The Orioles have a decent bullpen but a lot of starters that probably overachieved last year; we'll see if I'm wrong about that, but I'd rank them last for now.<br /><br />The hitting is likely a different story, so let's start ranking that. I'm going by CBSSports projected lineups as of a couple days ago, if I'm wrong about who is playing the position I'll correct it.<br /><br />First Base:<br /><br />1. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: First base is really ugly in the AL East, with Encarnacion being the only good one here. I don't think he quite repeats last year, but he's far and away the best first baseman in the division. I'd rank him higher even if Teixeira returns fairly quickly and shows no ill effects. <br /><br />2. Mike Napoli, Red Sox: I'm a Napoli fan but the injury issue is a problem. Still, I think he's better than the other options here. <br /><br />3. Chris Davis, Orioles: Chris Davis is not an amazing hitter. His average is at best acceptable and he doesn't get on base a ton. He does, however, hit home runs, and that alone puts him third on the list. I also think last years numbers were not that out of the ordinary and are repeatable for him.<br /><br />4. Lyle Overbay/Kevin Youkilis, Yankees: I put both since the current word is to expect a platoon, with Youkilis playing first against lefties and Overbay against righties. I'll cover Youkilis more when we get to third base. Overbay is what he is; he's not very good at this stage, but he'll play some solid defense, and perhaps Yankee Stadium plus sitting more against lefties will help his overall numbers.<br /><br />5. James Loney, Rays: Loney is more or less the same as Overbay, I just think Overbay has a bit more upside, and Loney is coming off a worse year.<br /><br /><br />Second Base: <br /><br />1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: A legitimate MVP candidate. I'm undecided whether he'll take a bit of a hit this year due to a worse lineup around him (less chances to drive in runners, less chances of being driven in) or if he'll do just as well if not better by getting his numbers with RiSP up (he's done it in the past, so bad luck may have been involved). Either way he's the best second baseman in the division.<br /><br />2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: The clear #2 second baseman after Cano. A great player who had a bit of an off year, but I expect him to keep doing what he does.<br /><br />3. Kelly Johnson, Rays: I'm not a Kelly Johnson fan, at all, and I debated putting Bonifacio higher, but Johnson has a lot more power and will still steal you 10-15 bases. He won't get on base much and won't come anywhere close to even Pedroia's power, let alone Cano, but he's not worthless.<br /><br />4. Emilio Bonifacio, Blue Jays: I don't really like Bonifacio, but he's going to give the Jays a lot of steals with an okay (not great, but not below .300 either) OBP. Nothing special but I'd still put him here.<br /><br />5. Brian Roberts, Orioles: I REALLY wanted to rank Roberts higher, but he hasn't had anywhere in the ballpark of a full seasons stats since 2009. If you add up 2010-2012, you STILL don't get a full seasons stats, and when he's actually managed to play the last two years, he's been awful. He has the upside to be the #3 second baseman in the division, but he really has to stay healthy and actually show something before I can move him higher.<br /><br />That's all for now, but I'll post more later.<br />Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-91547193479424300392013-03-31T00:10:00.001-05:002013-03-31T00:10:26.617-05:00Comparing the AL East teamsAfter constantly hearing how the Yankees are sure to finish dead last, I thought I'd compare the 5 AL East teams, position by position, to try to get a better idea of just how the Yankees line up, position by position, with the other teams in the division. The Rules: Anyone on the DL to start the season is not counted unless they are expected back very soon. Hence, Hughes will be considered as the #4 starter, but Teixeira will not be considered as the first baseman. <br /><br />#1 Starter:<br /><br />1. David Price, Rays: Probably the best starter in the division. Both Cy Young winners are in the AL East now, but Price is the one I see coming closer to repeating.<br /><br />2. CC Sabathia, Yankees: Sabathia's durability finally showed some cracks last year, but even with injuries and missing 5-6 starts, he still threw 200 innings with an ERA in the low 3's. <br /><br />3. RA Dickey, Blue Jays: The NL Cy Young winner had a fantastic year and I think, to some extent, it was for real. However, I just can't see him repeating that, and knuckleball or no, you're talking about a 38 year old moving to the American League. I think some people don't realize how good he was in 2010 and 2011...he's not a one year wonder. However, that strikeout rate that helped propel him to the Cy Young is way higher than anything he's done before. He could move up this list, but I can't reasonably put him above Price or Sabathia.<br /><br />4. Jon Lester, Red Sox: Lester was not good at all last season, the story of a lot of Red Sox players. Lester's strikeout rate and home runs allowed have been trending in the wrong direction for years, but his biggest issue last year seemed to be a ton more hits falling in. I'm not so sure he returns to his former low 3 ERA self, but I do expect him to be much better than last year.<br /><br />5. Jason Hammel, Orioles: The real question with Hammel is did he get very lucky last year, or did he figure something out? Here's a guy with a career ERA (AFTER last season) of 4.78. Before last year, he only managed to be even an average pitcher one time. His 2012 season was excellent, with a much better strikeout rate, many less hits allowed, and less home runs allowed than ever before. It is worth pointing out he had been in Colorado from 2009-2011. Do I think he's as good as he was last year, no. Do I think he's better than he was prior to 2012? I do, but I can't reasonably put him anywhere but fifth.<br /><br />#2 Starter:<br /><br />1. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees: I'm a big fan of Kuroda, and was thrilled when the Yankees signed him. He gave the Yankees a great season, and I feel comfortable putting him at the top of this list. The one real concern is his age, but he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down yet. <br /><br />2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: Look, I'm not going to sit here and say Hellickson isn't for real. I thought that after his 36 innings in 2010. I thought that after he put up an ERA under 3 in 2011. Now, though, after 2 years and 402 career innings with an ERA of 3.06, at some point we have to acknowledge that he has some ability to "outpitch" his mediocre hit, walk, strikeout, and home run rates. Part of that is undoubtedly his home ballpark and the defense behind him, but he does still have a 3.32 ERA on the road in his career. However, because of those bad rates, I feel like, even if he does have a strong defense, a good home ballpark, and some ability to control his hits, he's walking a tightrope that sooner or later he'll fall off of. <br /><br />3. Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays: Now here's a guy who finally may have put it together. His strikeout rate plummeted (although it's still strong), but perhaps that was actually to his benefit. His walk rate has been improving for years now. I don't feel comfortable putting him any higher than 3 when we're talking about 124 innings one year, but I do think it's possible he's a legitimate #2 starter.<br /><br />4. Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles: Chen had a decent rookie season. His home run rate was too high, but everything else was pretty solid. I'm not sure he'll repeat it, but I'm interested to see how he does this year.<br /><br />5. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: I'm not really a big Buchholz fan. His strikeout rate isn't very good, he has trouble staying healthy, his home run rate is mediocre to bad...he had some success in 2010 and 2011, but a lot of that seemed to be luck. I originally had him above Chen, but I ended up moving him down because Chen's walk rate was better than Buchholz has ever had, and his strikeout rate was better than Buchholz has had since 2008, not to mention he immediately threw more innings than Buchholz has ever managed. He could move up in the list, but I just don't trust him.<br /><br />#3 Starter:<br /><br />1. Matt Moore, Rays: This was one of the tougher ones. I considered Pettitte here, but his injury last year, plus the defense behind him, made me move Moore to the first spot. I don't know that Moore will be as amazing as he's been hyped to be in the past, but I think he's going to be a very solid starter. <br /><br />2. Andy Pettitte, Yankees: It's somewhat odd that after 4 straight years of ERAs over 4, Andy's last 200 innings, spread out over 3 years (with him not even playing in 2011) have seen an ERA barely above 3.00. He's limited his hits but otherwise hasn't done much else, which could suggest some luck is involved. Still, he's a proven guy who, when healthy, has been great since 2009. Unfortunately, at his age and coming off an injury, he does have to be considered a potential injury risk. <br /><br />3. Ryan Dempster, Red Sox: I debated moving Dempster past Pettitte, based mainly on having less of an injury history (although he did have an issue last year, but it wasn't as bad as Pettitte's). I hesitated because of how bad he was with the Rangers last year (albeit in a small sample size). After an entire career in the NL, it might take him longer to adapt to the American League. I think his performance in the end will be somewhere in between his 2011 and 2012 numbers.<br /><br />4. Mark Buehrle, Blue Jays: First off, I based the starters on who the teams have chosen to start in order...the Jays have Buehrle listed as their #3, so that's who goes here. I'm not a Buehrle guy at all. He's had plenty of success in his career, clearly, and he's a good bet to throw 200 innings, but he'll have a poor strikeout rate and a ton of hits allowed, and he doesn't actually have an incredibly low home run rate. He doesn't walk guys and he's durable, but that's about it.<br /><br />5. Miguel Gonzalez, Orioles: Another Oriole who I think got very lucky last year. He's not a terrible pitcher and I could see him being better than Buehrle, but until he throws more than 105 innings, I can't put him any higher.<br /><br />#4 Starter:<br /><br />1. Josh Johnson, Blue Jays: I actually think he'll be much better than Mark Buehrle, but hey, he's listed as their #4 starter, so this is where he goes. The one issue with Josh Johnson is, obviously, health. However, while he does seem to be good for an injury every year, he's been a LITTLE more durable than people think. He's thrown 180+ innings 3 out of the past 4 years...not great, but certainly not the 100 innings or less I suspect most people think he puts up every year. His upside is clearly the highest of the #4 guys (and the #3 guys for that matter, except for perhaps Matt Moore). I think he's for real and I think he stays relatively healthy...he's the #1 here by a lot.<br /><br />2. Phil Hughes, Yankees: I actually would have put Hughes lower, because while I've always been a big Hughes fan and rooted for him to succeed, he just has never quite put it all together. That said, the 180-190 innings with a low 4 ERA he gave the Yankees last year and in 2010 (his two mostly healthy years) are better than those ranked below him. He'll start the year on the DL but is already throwing, and is only expected to miss a start or two at most. The home run rate is terrible with Hughes, but the walkrate is solid to strong and he strikes out a good amount of guys. If he can start keeping the ball in the park he could be the Yankees second best starter after CC, but at this point that might require a move to a team with a bigger ballpark. <br /><br />3. Alex Cobb, Rays: It's tough to determine whether Cobb should have been 2 or 3 here, since we don't have as big a track record, but I do like Cobb. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outpitched Hughes this year. That said, I don't think we're talking about a future ace here. He's a solid middle of the rotation guy.<br /><br />4. Felix Doubront, Red Sox: Doubront had a great strikeout rate last year, but the bottom line is he gives up too many hits and walks way too many guys with a mediocre to bad home run rate. I could see him having a solid year if he can get the walks down to where they were in the minor leagues, but I can't place him any higher until we see something out of him.<br /><br />5. Jake Arrieta, Orioles: Arrieta actually had really solid numbers last year...if you look at his strikeout to walk rate (3.11). Unfortunately, he also had a 6.20 ERA, allowed way too many hits, and enters the year with a career 5.33 ERA. There's only so much a great strikeout to walk rate can do for you until you start showing some results. I might have considered him higher if he had an ERA in, say, the mid 4's, but 6.20? Can't do it.<br /><br />#5 Starter:<br /><br />1. Chris Tillman, Orioles: Hey, the Orioles are out of the basement! First off, this was probably the toughest group to pick. This is less a thumbs up for Tillman and more an indictment of the group as a whole. That said, I do think Tillman is headed in the right direction. Like practically every Oriole starter, I don't expect a repeat of 2012, but I also think he'll be much better than he was from 2009-2011. The walk rate may go back up (or perhaps he figured something out), and he'll probably give up more hits, but I don't think you'll see a hit rate well over 10 per 9 again.<br /><br />2. Ivan Nova, Yankees: This could actually be David Phelps instead, once Hughes comes back, but my guess is Nova gets the initial shot. I actually like Phelps a bit better, but whatever. Nova had a bad 2012 after a strong 2011, but he actually seemed to make some strides in his strikeout rate. His biggest problem last year was home runs, but this is a guy with a career minor league home run rate of 0.6 per 9, with a very strong home run rate in 2011 as well. I'm not sure the strikeout rate is real, but I don't believe last years home run rate was either, so I think he'll be better. I've never been a Nova fan, but he could be a decent #5 starter.<br /><br />3. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays: Mostly based on a decent strikeout rate, because he doesn't have much else going for him. If not for Lackey's health issues he wouldn't even be this high.<br /><br />4. John Lackey, Red Sox: He has the potential to be the highest in this group, but there are serious problems here. He's had a terrible ERA in his Red Sox career and is coming off missing an entire season. In one way he's almost the anti Josh Johnson in terms of reputation, as prior to 2011 I recall him having a reputation of being a durable guy, but actually looking at it, he's missed time in 4 of his last 5 seasons (including all of last year) and the one time he actually threw 200 innings during that span, they were mediocre. He's gotta come back and show something before I can move him higher.<br /><br />5. The Artist Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona (AKA Roberto Hernandez), Rays: So let me get this straight, here. The Yankees lose a couple guys to free agency and a couple to injury, and it's the end of the world. The Rays lose their centerfielder and their second best starter who pitched as well as an ace at times, replacing the latter with FAUSTO CARMONA, and nobody says a word? Rays win a billion games and easily destroy the Yankees? Oh, okay. Carmona sucks. He'll get a slight boost from a strong defense but he's bad. <br /><br />The Overall Rotations:<br /><br />1. Yankees: This was VERY close with the Rays, and I nearly gave the Rays the edge because of their better defense (I'm not including home ballpark because I'm not really trying to compare who pitches in a better park here, the Yankee opponents will have to pitch in Yankee Stadium too, and the Rays opponents will pitch at their home park as well. Defense is different though, it's team specific). The Yankees have their ace in Sabathia, two very solid starters in Kuroda and Pettitte, and a few high upside guys in Hughes and Nova with a solid #6 in Phelps. I give them the slight edge.<br /><br />2. Rays: The Rays pitchers have a great defense behind them, the best pitcher in the AL East, one of the highest upside guys in the AL East, and a couple of solid guys who benefit from that defense. They also have Fausto Carmona. So they're #2.<br /><br />3. Blue Jays: The Jays made some great moves to improve their staff, and I would not be surprised if they ranked #1. Johnson isn't quite as horribly injury prone as some think (albeit not durable), Dickey isn't the one year wonder a lot of people think, and Morrow could realistically have made some strides. There are just so many question marks in every single guy in that rotation though that I can't reasonably put them above the Yankees or Rays.<br /><br />4. Red Sox: I definitely think we'll see better seasons from Lester and Buchholz this year, and a healthy Lackey, even if he's not good, could at least keep the Red Sox from running out terrible pitchers as they were forced to do in September 2011. In the end though, they just don't have the depth or the upside of the three rotations above them.<br /><br />5. Orioles: Their rotation is really not very good. They could get some help from the minors, but they had a ton of starters get ridiculously lucky last year, and the only one I think even has a chance of repeating what he did is Chen (and he was solid, not dominant). Not a fan at all.<br /><br />That's it for tonight, next time I'll look at the bullpen and maybe the offenses as well. <br />Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-1417702809672085422012-01-18T20:03:00.004-05:002012-01-18T20:48:01.419-05:00The Recent MovesHaven't had much to talk about for a while, but a few days ago the Yankees finally broke their offseason silence and made some big moves.<br /><br />1. Yankees sign Hiroki Kuroda<br /><br />May as well start with the more "basic" signing first. I love this move. Is Kuroda an ace? No. He is, however, a good pitcher who should give the Yankees 200ish innings with an ERA around 4 or lower. He's got good stuff and isn't simply a product of the NL West; he has good road numbers, complete with a solid strikeout rate and an elite walk rate. The only real question I'd have is with his home runs, which have fluctuated in his four years stateside. He had a high home run rate in 2011; however, it was actually higher on the road than at home, so it may have been a fluke. In any case, good signing, especially since it won't effect the team past this year anyway.<br /><br />2. Yankees trade Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos<br /><br />Whew, this was a crazy trade. When I first saw that the Mariners were finalizing a deal for a young impact bat, I immediately wondered if it could be Montero, and sure enough...<br /><br />My last posts dealt with the idea of trading Montero. While I did mention Pineda as someone I would have considered trading Montero for, I didn't expect it to actually happen, even if it does make some sense for both teams. If the Yankees were going to trade Montero, though, this is the type of player they should have targeted...a young, high upside pitcher who has already pitched very well in the majors (but still has 5 years to go to reach free agency).<br /><br />First off, what <span style="font-weight:bold;">doesn't</span> this mean? You can already see some of the spin that this means such and such for the future of the team, or how the Yankees must have been down on Montero. I do think it's entirely possible (especially given how September went) that the Yankees were more down on Montero the catcher than they were willing to let on. However, I think that's about the only thing it says. A lot of people have declared this means the Yankees didn't want a DH because A-Rod's going to be moved there in the next couple of years. However, that assumes the Yankees had no intention of ever keeping Montero, and I don't buy that for a second. There was never any indication they were interested in including him for any other pitchers traded...in fact, I think Pineda may have been one of the only possible pitchers he could have been traded for. Felix is unavailable and so is nearly every other ace or #2 type starter that it would have been reasonable to trade Montero for. If the Mariners had (very realistically) decided not to trade Pineda, I firmly believe Jesus Montero would be a Yankee next season and going forward. This trade was made because Pineda became available, not because the Yankees were trying to get rid of Montero.<br /><br />Could this mean more DH time in the future for Alex Rodriguez? Absolutely. There's no immediate candidate to replace Montero at DH, now or in the future (more on that in another post in the next few days). However, does this mean they made the trade <span style="font-weight:bold;">because</span> they're expecting A-Rod to DH a ton soon? No, I don't believe that. The reasoning I brought up a couple months ago still stands.<br /><br />So, what do I think about the trade? I'm not entirely sure. I'm tentatively in favor of it. I was a huge fan of Montero and didn't want him traded except for very specific circumstances...this was potentially one of them. If Montero is going to be a full time DH, that's less valuable than catching full time. Still valuable, but less so. Meanwhile, this gives the Yankees a #2 starter that is under team control for the next 5 years, who has a chance to become an ace. The possibility of getting Cole Hamels next year hasn't been eliminated either, although it seems less likely now. Imagine a top 3 of Sabathia/Hamels/Pineda? That's an insane top three that would make the Yankees the immediate favorites in any postseason series they're in. Of course, if the Yankees are serious about getting payroll under 189 million by 2014, then Hamels is almost certainly not possible. Regardless, this gives the Yankees more options. I hate to see Montero go, but if you're going to move him, this is the deal to do it in. <br /><br />The "throw ins" are interesting as well. In the short term they clearly favor the Mariners, as Noesi is ready to contribute right now and Campos is years away. However, Campos actually has upside, with most saying he would have been a clear first round pick had he entered the draft this year. This is an interesting addition for the Yankees, brought on, I suspect, by the new CBA. The new CBA could significantly hurt the Yankees in terms of their farm system. They will have much less money that they can spend in the draft without sacrificing first round draft picks, and they're going to be extremely limited in how much they can spend on international free agents. In addition, because they're the Yankees, the team is always contending and rarely is able to trade players to rebuild their farm; the players they trade are usually younger guys traded away to help the major league team. This gives the Yankees a prospect that will fit into their top 10 (likely somewhere in the middle...5-7 or so). Noesi is a nice back end of the rotation/long reliever type, but he's an interchangeable part on this Yankee team. One out of Hughes/Garcia/Burnett seems certain to take the long relief role (I'll cover the 5th starter situation in another post soon), so Noesi was probably headed back to the minors anyway. <br /><br />Finally, Pineda. I think there are a few legitimate concerns about him, and a few concerns that aren't fair. I've seen a few people bring up the fact that he has had elbow issues in the past. In 2009, he missed a good amount of the season with elbow soreness. However, from what I understand, it was at least somewhat precautionary. Elbow issues of any kind are a bad thing with pitchers, but the fact is he had elbow soreness 2 years and many innings ago and as far as I'm aware has never had the issue again. Besides, it was soreness, not elbow surgery. I'm not too concerned there. <br /><br />The second concern I've seen raised is the home run rate. First off, let's be clear on this: Pineda is going to give up some home runs. He's a fly ball pitcher and Yankee Stadium has the short porch. That said, I think some of the concern is over the top. One of the reasons Yankee Stadium allows so many home runs is that the Yankees themselves are the best home run hitting team in baseball. That's somewhat of a "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?" argument, but it does have to factor in. Meanwhile, the Mariners are the second worst home run hitting team in the American League (and if Morneau had played a full year, they probably would be worse than the Twins). Again, part of this is due to their park, but the team itself simply has no power. That's only a small part of it though; of course it's easier to hit a home run in Yankee Stadium than it is at Safeco. Pineda, though, oddly enough, had a better home run rate on the road than he did at home. Whether this suggests he got a little lucky on the road or whether it suggests he got a little unlucky at home, I don't know. His minor league home run rate was actually quite good. I suspect the end result for Pineda is going to be a home run rate about what he did last year, or slightly higher. Last year his home run rate was 0.9 per 9 innings, I expect something close to that, perhaps as high as 1 per 9. I don't think he's going to skyrocket up to 1.2 per 9 like some seem to think. Time will tell there, but I'm not too concerned about the home run rate.<br /><br />The final main complaint is about Pineda's poor second half. It's true that Pineda's second half was worse than his first, in terms of ERA. Some of his other numbers were not that different, though. His K/9 and BB/9 were close to the same, which suggests he may have just gotten unlucky. Also, Pineda went through three terrible starts in a row in mid July...if you take those out, his second half ERA was, I believe, under 4.00, and his overall ERA is closer to 3.00 than 4.00. The reason I mention that is we don't really know why he got knocked around in those three starts. If he just got knocked around for no particular reason, then yes, that's something we may have to see every year. If, however, Pineda had a mechanical issue he needed to work out or a minor injury he didn't disclose, it's not fair to expect starts like that every year. I'd also point out that toward the end of the year, the Mariners were attempting to limit Pineda's innings. He was skipped at least twice, pushed back a day here or there, and taken out after 90 pitches multiple times (even when pitching well). His final start came on 11 days rest and lasted 80 pitches. It's tough to take a lot out of that, when so many pitchers thrive with consistency. <br /><br />What does Pineda do right? He has a fantastic strikeout rate. Even if it goes down slightly in the AL East (no guarantee, the hitters are certainly better but it doesn't necessarily mean they strike out less), it's still an elite strikeout rate. What is perhaps even more interesting is the excellent walk rate. That's great to see from such a young pitcher with such good stuff. <br /><br />If Pineda can stay healthy, he should be a strong pitcher for the Yankees for many years. I think Montero is going to be a very good hitter, and it hurts to lose him, but the Yankees have greatly improved their rotation without having to give out an enormous long term contract. Now, they have the option to try to get payroll down or to hand out that big contract to make a "super rotation" comparable to the Phillies. This trade is going to take awhile to fairly judge, though.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-89694344430362930742011-10-10T17:21:00.004-05:002011-10-10T18:17:38.788-05:00Should Montero Be Traded?Yesterday I pointed out how silly the claim of "The Yankees can't keep Montero if he's a DH!" is, and why it would be stupid to trade him for "anything they can get" as some have suggested. However, there's another question...<span style="font-weight:bold;">should</span> Montero be traded? A lot of people have this assumption that ace pitchers are always available at all times, but is that actually true? I went through all the teams and pinpointed players I'd even be willing to trade Montero for. Rule #1: If they're going to be a free agent, they obviously don't count. Rule #2: If they have only one year left on their contract, I'm not interested. Montero has too much potential for too little money to justify trading him for a one year rental at this point. While you can make a case for a top, top pitcher (ala Cliff Lee), there aren't any guys of that caliber with one year remaining. <br /><br />Over in the NL West, the Rockies have nobody I'd be at all interested in. The Diamondbacks only have Ian Kennedy, and he's not worth Montero at this point, even if he did have a great year. The Padres pitchers always scare me because of the Petco factor, and the only guy that even particularly interests me there is Latos, and I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Over on the Giants, there are two pitchers of interest, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Matt Cain is out for me...while I like him, I think he's more of a #2/#3 type pitcher, and he's only signed through 2012. I wouldn't be against trading for him, but not at the cost of Montero. Lincecum could be a different story, he's an ace. His walk rate is a little high but otherwise he'd probably be a top of the rotation guy anywhere. He's under contract for two more seasons. I can't imagine the Giants would ever do it but I'd probably go for that one. With Posey and Belt around and no DH though, it doesn't make much sense for them. The Dodgers have one pitcher I'd jump on, Clayton Kershaw. I'd make that trade in a second, but the Dodgers have even less reason to do that than the Giants. Kershaw is only just becoming eligible for arbitration; he'll be a bargain for years to come. So, from the NL West, we have Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, and neither figures to be at all available.<br /><br />Over in the NL Central, I don't think there's a single player I'd trade Montero for. Wainwright is coming off an injury, Carpenter is getting old and isn't as dominant (Game 5 of the NLDS aside). The Reds, Astros, and Pirates don't have anyone I'd be particularly interested in. I'd be a bit interested in Garza from the Cubs but certainly wouldn't trade Montero for him. That leaves the Brewers, but Marcum isn't worth Montero, and Greinke has concerns about pitching in New York and would be a free agent after 2012 anyway. That leaves only Gallardo, who is a bit more interesting as he's under contract through 2014, but he allows too many home runs and I just wouldn't trust him enough. So, nobody from the NL Central.<br /><br />Over in the NL East, the Mets have nobody of interest. The Marlins and Braves both have an interesting pitcher, but they're coming off serious injuries to their arms/shoulders that would immediately stop me in my tracks. Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson could both be aces or definitive #2 starters, but there is no way I'd trade Montero for either under the current circumstances, not until we know they're healthy. Those types of injuries are huge question marks. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, and I'm back and forth on him. On the one hand, he's also coming off a major injury; however, he's actually returned and pitched some, and looked good doing it. He doesn't seem to have lost a step. The question is, are there more injuries in his future? I think I would reluctantly do it; the Nationals never would. The Phillies have three interesting pitchers, but Hamels only has one year remaining, so I wouldn't do that trade. Lee and Halladay I would, but they obviously wouldn't be available. So, from the NL West, you have Lee, Halladay, and Strasburg, and none of them would be available. Seeing a pattern? From the entire NL, not one pitcher worth trading Montero for figures to be available, and I don't mean that we're guessing they probably aren't available, I mean it makes no logical sense at all that they would be. <br /><br />Moving to the American League, let's start with the AL East. First off, it bears mentioning that it'd be extremely difficult to make any kind of a trade in division. The Red Sox have Lester, but obviously would never make a deal with the Yankees for players of that caliber. The Orioles have nobody interesting. The Rays have a lot of interesting pitchers, however. Price and Moore are both of great interest, although it's extremely doubtful either would be at all available, and certainly not to the Yankees. The realistic guy there is James Shields. I could definitely see James Shields getting traded. The question is, is he worth trading Montero for? My gut is no. If you knew you were getting the James Shields of this year, then of course, but James Shields prior to this year was solid to bad every other year. Before this year you'd never consider trading Montero for him, and I'm not sure anything has really changed right now. Not that the Rays would be at all likely to trade Shields and his three remaining years in division. As for the Blue Jays, the only pitcher of any interest is Ricky Romero, who has a shockingly great contract for the Blue Jays (he's signed cheap through 2015 with a relatively cheap 2016 option). I'm not the biggest Romero fan around but based solely on how good that contract is and how effective he has been in the AL East, you'd have to at least consider it. So for the AL East, you have Lester, Price, Moore, and perhaps Romero, but none of them would figure to be available, and certainly not to the Yankees.<br /><br />Over in the AL Central, there is essentially one and only one pitcher that jumps out at me, and that's Justin Verlander. The Twins, Indians, Royals, and White Sox don't have anyone that interests me enough to trade Montero. Naturally, especially after the year Verlander had, I'd trade Montero for him, but of course the Tigers wouldn't. <br /><br />Finally, the AL West. The Rangers have nobody interesting. CJ Wilson is a free agent and nobody else interests me enough to consider trading Montero for them. The A's have a couple interesting players and people have been linking the Yankees to Gio Gonzalez as recently as the trade deadline, but it's not a trade I'd make. The Angels have Weaver, who I might have been interested in, but his desire to stay on the West coast makes that a no go. I like Haren quite a bit and wanted the Yankees to get him last year, but at this point I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Finally, the Mariners. I might do it for Pineda, but the Mariners wouldn't go for that. <br /><br />Which finally, leaves us with perhaps the only realistic option. Every single player I've said I would trade Montero for is almost certain to not be traded. The guys who could be traded only have one year left on their contracts, or simply aren't good enough (or have too many injuries in recent years) to justify it. However, the one player who could perhaps get traded, the one ace who doesn't play for a team with realistic expectations of contention, who has a large contract the team could want to move, is Felix Hernandez. <br /><br />There are a few problems with Felix. For starters, he didn't look like his recent self this season. He looked more like the Felix of 2006-2008, who was very good but not really one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his strikeout rate was the best of his career and his walk rate remained low; this could just be a fluke. Also, with three years remaining on his contract, if the Mariners would even entertain offers for him (and it's a big if, albeit realistic unlike many of the other aces in baseball), it would certainly cost more than Montero. Montero would likely have to be included in any offer, since the Mariners badly need offense, but they'd want more. Montero and Nova is a realistic start to the offer, with probably one additional player (likely not Banuelos, as that would probably be too high of a price, but Hughes/Betances would be possibilities). I actually don't think I'd do a deal of Montero/Nova/Hughes for Felix. It would create too many holes on the major league team, and if the Yankees took on Felix' salary (18.5 million in 2012), they'd be right up against the payroll limit Hal and Hank seemingly set last year. While they could probably be convinced to go a little higher, you're not going to fill those multiple empty spots. Everyone is down on Hughes, but he at least fills a starting pitching role on the team; trading him plus Nova opens up two holes while only filling one, in what is a terrible free agent market for pitchers (and that's assuming CC resigns with the Yankees), in addition to opening up a hole at the DH position. Betances and Banuelos have a lot of potential but simply aren't ready. I would, however, probably do a deal that included Montero, one of the starters, and Betances or a lesser prospect. Betances has a world of potential but has to get his walks under control, and it's possible he never does that. I'd hate to do that deal since I don't want to see Montero traded, but realistically you have to give up something of worth. <br /><br />All that said, in all of Major League Baseball, looking at every single team, I found one single pitcher who I would trade Montero for this offseason that has any shot of realistically being available, and even that's guessing with him; there's no real reason why the Mariners couldn't simply wait til the trade deadline, or really, wait until the trade deadline of the 2014 season to trade him. If he keeps pitching well his value isn't going to go down, and they don't figure to contend next year no matter what they trade Felix for. You could even make the argument they'd be better off waiting and trading him for younger players under team control longer, once they feel they're within a few years on contention. Perhaps they feel that way now, and if so, they could make the trade, but if they don't, I'd keep Montero. The options aren't that good and I'm not at all interested in trading away the best hitting prospect the Yankees have had in a very long time, who killed the ball in September, for a one year wonder or back end starting pitcher.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-51736438014239978202011-10-09T18:21:00.004-05:002011-10-09T18:44:16.136-05:00The Myth of the DHLately, I've seen a lot of people calling for Montero to be traded, and not just for an ace pitcher; for whatever the Yankees can get. The argument generally boils down to 2 points:<br /><br />1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.<br /><br />2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.<br /><br />First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.<br /><br />The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.<br /><br />A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope). <br /><br />Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open <span style="font-weight:bold;">now</span> because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all. <br /><br />So when people say Montero <span style="font-weight:bold;">needs</span> to be traded because the DH spot <span style="font-weight:bold;">needs</span> to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through. <br /><br />A better question is <span style="font-weight:bold;">should</span> Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-12811683483674527012011-10-07T18:21:00.003-05:002011-10-07T19:18:14.842-05:00Potential Starters for 2012So, we've established now that overall, the Yankees can pretty easily fill 23 of the 25 spots on their roster for 2012 (again, assuming no injuries or trades, which are both possibilities but are tough to predict right now). But that starting pitching looks really suspect right now, with Nova the only one that's even close to a sure thing, and we're really working off a small sample size of half a season, his first half wasn't too good. Obviously, the one name that jumps out is CC Sabathia. He has the ability to opt out and most feel that he will, especially with the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market. While he didn't look quite as good in September and October, resigning CC is a must. There simply aren't other options for aces right now, and even if the Yankees were to pull off a huge trade, you'd only be replacing him (and losing top prospects to do it). Besides, let's be honest...while he was far from sharp in Game 3, he was getting squeezed pretty badly on that outside corner to right handed hitters. That game might have gone very differently if he wasn't. Let's work under the assumption that the Yankees do bring Sabathia back...he seems to love it in New York and the Yankees really do need him back. That leaves one empty pitching spot on the roster (at least, as Hughes or even Burnett could end up bumped from the rotation...but I think that's unlikely at this point). <br /><br />To be honest, if you're looking at the free agent market and want a pitcher who can pitch toward the top of the rotation, rather than a 4 or 5 starter at best, there's only a single guy who would likely be worth it, and that's CJ Wilson. There are a couple decent options such as Roy Oswalt, but he's getting older, has pitched his whole career in the NL, and has an option for 2012. Hiroki Kuroda is also a free agent but seems to prefer to stay on the West Coast. That leaves CJ Wilson and a whole lot of meh. I've gone back and forth on CJ Wilson, personally. Prior to this season I wanted no part of him, but he had a really good year. Here are the pros and cons on him.<br /><br />Pros: <br />- Has thrown 200 innings the last two seasons (was a reliever before that)<br />- Strong strikeout rate<br />- Pitches in the AL in a hitters ballpark, so there's reason to think he could succeed anywhere<br />- Left handed pitcher, always a plus at Yankee Stadium<br />- Doesn't allow a lot of hits, while this can always change based on luck, it's good to see a consistently low hits per 9 rate.<br />- Limits home runs despite being in a hitters ballpark<br /><br />Cons:<br />- Very high walk rate. 3.0 per 9 (his walk rate for 2011) is workable, but before that he was around 4.0 per 9 or more, and that's just too many, especially pitching in the AL West for the one above average offensive team in the division. His walk rate could go even higher in the AL East.<br />- Went from being a reliever to suddenly throwing 200 IP two years in a row, including 223 this season. He didn't seem to have a problem this year, so it may not matter, but anytime you see that innings jump there are going to be at least questions about arm troubles. <br />- Is more of a #2 starter who could be paid ace money, due to being the only good free agent pitcher on the market if Sabathia stays with the Yankees, and due to currently being on Texas, who has money to spend as evidenced by their pursuit of Cliff Lee.<br /><br />If the Yankees were to sign CJ Wilson (and resign CC Sabathia), I think I'd be okay with it, but I wouldn't have a problem with it if they didn't. The walks are the big concern for me. Did we see Wilson figure it out this season? Or was it a fluke and he'll be back to walking 4 per 9 again? Also, I know people like to just say "Yankees have money, who cares", but these things do matter. There are limits on payroll as we've seen recently. The Yankees are losing Jorge Posada and should be able to replace him with the league minimum Jesus Montero, but that's about all they're losing right now, and they do have to be wary of the fact that after 2013, Robinson Cano might have to be resigned to an enormous, superstar level contract. In addition, Felix Hernandez always looms as a possibility, and his 20 million a year salary likely wouldn't be possible if CJ Wilson were signed.<br /><br />Speaking of Felix, he seems to be the only ace type pitcher who even might be available via trade this offseason (which isn't to say he even will be available). The Yankees could probably put together a good package for him, especially since Montero looked so good in September. However, any trade for Felix would create other holes, such as at DH, that would need to be filled, with little money to do it. <br /><br />If Wilson returns to the Rangers, that leaves the Yankees in a tough situation. In that case, they might be best served doing what they did this year...signing a pair of back end starters to take a chance on (ala Garcia and Colon) and having Betances and Banuelos ready should they develop the way we hope they do. Neither guy is ready to make the team out of Spring Training, but both could be ready soon after. This would enable the Yankees to get by for another year and go after Cole Hamels after the 2012 season, or to hope the kids develop to an extent that they can full all the necessary roles in the rotation. It's also possible the Yankees could make a more minor trade without using Montero, to try to get someone like Matt Garza or Matt Cain. <br /><br />One wild card in the whole thing is Yu Darvish, who is expected to be posted this offseason by Japan. His stuff is off the charts, but there are of course potential problems there. For starters, he'd cost a lot of money since any team would have to pay the posting fee as well as signing him to a contract. Second, while I'm not of the "Japanese pitchers all suck!" mindset that a lot of people seem to have, I do think Japan is different from the US, and it'd really be preferable for any Japanese pitcher coming to the US to spend some time in the minor leagues, to adapt to pitching every 5 days instead of every 6, to learn to face hitters who are more likely to take a walk or hit for power. The problem is, with so much money invested in these players via the posting fee, there's a lot of pressure on the team that gets them to have them in the rotation immediately. I could see Yu Darvish doing that; Daisuke Matsuzaka is the general go to for "great stuff but struggled in the US", but I like Darvish better. Look him up on YouTube to see him pitch; it's pretty impressive. Darvish is very much a difficult guy to predict, though, because there's no guarantee the Yankees would even win the rights to him (a place where offering the biggest contract doesn't work), and even if they do, he could be anything from an ace to a guy with great stuff that can't quite adapt. It'd certainly be a risky move.<br /><br />One other name that should be mentioned, since he could become a trade target this offseason, is James Shields. While I certainly wouldn't mind having him, I imagine the Yankees would have to greatly overpay, beyond everyone else, considering the Rays are a constantly contending team and wouldn't want to trade him to one of their two main competitors.<br /><br />It's very difficult to predict at this point what the Yankees will do in terms of starting pitching. Resigning Sabathia is an obvious move, but beyond that, they have a number of things they could do with that last rotation spot.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-5055897959632579112011-10-07T17:35:00.003-05:002011-10-07T17:53:29.208-05:00The Offseason BeginsLast night was a tough loss for the Yankees, and with it, the speculation begins as to what the Yankees will do to prepare for the 2012 season.<br /><br />For starters, let's look at the guys, minus a trade or an injury, who will be guaranteed to be on the roster to start next season.<br /><br />1. Derek Jeter<br />2. Robinson Cano (technically has to have his option picked up, an obvious no brainer)<br />3. Mark Teixeira<br />4. Alex Rodriguez<br />5. Curtis Granderson<br />6. Brett Gardner<br />7. Eduardo Nunez<br />8. AJ Burnett<br />9. Phil Hughes<br />10. Ivan Nova<br />11. Mariano Rivera<br />12. David Robertson<br />13. Boone Logan<br />14. Rafael Soriano (unless he opts out, which would be a surprise)<br />15. Cory Wade<br /><br />In addition to those guys, we have Martin. I would assume he'll be kept by the Yankees. While they only signed him to a one year deal, Martin is not eligible for free agency until after 2012, as he was previously nontendered by the Dodgers. I imagine he stays with the Yankees, but I put him seperately just in case. <br /><br />16. Russell Martin<br /><br />You also have Nick Swisher, who has a relatively cheap option. A few people are completely overreacting to a few small sample size games in October. Swisher had a rough start to the year but picked it up quite a bit after that. Especially considering the lack of good free agent outfielders aside from Carlos Beltran, this seems like an obvious move.<br /><br />17. Nick Swisher<br /><br />Jorge Posada is almost certainly gone now, after a great and underrated career with the Yankees. Assuming that is the case, it also seems obvious Jesus Montero will take his spot on the roster (again, barring a trade) as the full time DH and perhaps occasional catcher in an emergency. <br /><br />18. Jesus Montero<br /><br />I left Francisco Cervelli off the definites only as a "just in case", since he hasn't exactly been amazing, but he has been the backup catcher, Austin Romine isn't ready, and I find it unlikely they'd make Jesus Montero the backup catcher and still have him DH every day.<br /><br />19. Francisco Cervelli<br /><br />That leaves only 6 open roster spots...the starting nine is essentially already filled, assuming Martin and Swisher return and Montero is the DH. The backup infield spot and backup catcher are filled as well. That leaves two bench players (one backup outfielder, one other), two bullpen spots, and two starting pitching spots. There aren't nearly as many open spots as people may think. The bullpen spots could be filled by virtually anyone...Joba may fill one shortly after the season starts if he's healthy by then, the Yankees could sign a long man who could also start in case of injuries, they could try signing another lefty again (assuming Feliciano can't pitch), or they could just call someone up from the minors. The core of the bullpen remains intact. As for bench spots, I'd try hard to resign Jones, he can play left field adequately and he can hit lefties really well. For the last bench spot, I'd look for someone who can play third and hit a little bit, ideally.<br /><br />I'll cover the starting pitcher spots in another post.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-76584448496584566932008-12-16T01:54:00.003-05:002008-12-16T02:23:27.970-05:00The moves so far...May as well update this thing from time to time.<br /><br />My thoughts on the moves so far:<br /><br />1. Sabathia: Great! Couldn't be happier about it. Are there some potential concerns, sure, he did have a ridiculous amount of innings the past two years. On the other hand CC has yet to show he can't handle it. I don't like the "poor postseason numbers" argument. It's a small sample size. 2007 could have been a case of "He's thrown way more innings than ever before and it's catching up". In 2008 he threw even more, and he was working on 3 days rest for something like 4 starts in a row. If it was pressure getting to him, why was he pitching well for the Brewers down the stretch in a tight pennant race? I think CC will be fine.<br /><br />2. AJ Burnett: I've gone back and forth on Burnett since the season ended, but I'm currently in the pro Burnett corner. I wish it could have been for 4 years rather than 5, but otherwise I think the potential upside here trumps anything else. Does he miss starts most years? Yes, although I tend to think this has been overblown. He's still got excellent stuff. Also, I've seen people point out that, okay, maybe he misses a few starts during the season, but the possibility of his stuff (and his apparent ability to pitch well in big games, albeit never in the postseason...we're pretty much talking about his strong performances against the Yankees and Boston I think) in the playoffs could make up for that. The deal could work out great, it could be terrible, but I think given the choices, this was probably the best move.<br /><br />3. Nick Swisher: I like this move, quite a bit actually. I think last year was more flukeish than anything. Swisher had some bad luck, for starters. He also wasn't comfortable leading off or playing centerfield. He also has stated that he felt he wasn't adjusted to playing for a new team, and claims he learned a lot last year. <br /><br />From a pure statistical perspective, I expect Swisher to improve which means we'll get a solid OBP and solid power at first base with some solid defense as well. But one thing I like that I normally wouldn't care about is that Swisher seems really enthusiastic to be here. Maybe it's just his natural personality, but reading posts he has made on his website or hearing him in an interview, he doesn't sound like someone who is *cue robot voice* 'glad he is a Yankee and looking forward to the opportunity to win'. He sounds genuinely excited about being a Yankee. I'm looking forward to seeing Swisher in action.<br /><br />4. Damaso Marte: Resigned him for 3 years. I'm alright with it, although this is another move I've flipped on. I did want Marte back this season so I don't think I would have just offered arbitration and let him go elsewhere, but I thought picking up his option for one year (albeit at a slightly higher salary for 2009) and taking the picks at the end of the season would have been a better option. I still think that might be the case, but I have no problem with Marte returning. Marte got lit up by Texas early in August, and then struggled a bit with the Angels and Twins later that month, which soured a lot of people on him, but he was very good from that point on. While the kids in the bullpen showed a lot last season, having one veteran that might actually be able to get the job done in a setup role is nice. <br /><br />I think that's essentially it for moves (unless I'm forgetting one).<br /><br />As far as other rumored moves:<br /><br />I'd definitely trade Melky for Cameron. Melky is what he is at this point, and I think last years Melky is probably more like the real Melky. I also like Gardner, but I'm not sold on whether he'll be able to man CF full time. I like him better as the 4th outfielder. Cameron's problem is he costs 10 million for the one season, but I think it's a move that the Yankees should consider making. If Gardner/Melky are ineffective in center again, the team is one injury to a Posada/Matsui/Damon/A-Rod/etc. away from being crippled. Cameron gives you some insurance. <br /><br />Teixeira: I just don't see this happening. Do I like Teixeira, yes. Signing him gives you a great hitter at first base for a long time (although he could of course decline). Then you can move Swisher to right field and either trade Nady or make him your fourth outfielder. The issue that a lot of people are failing to understand when arguing that the Yankees shouldn't trade for Cameron because they can use that 10 million toward Teixeira is that there's a lot more to it than just this year. If Teixeira approached the Yankees right now and said "Okay, I'll take a one year deal for 23 million, let's do that!" I have no doubt the Yankees would have him signed tomorrow. But tying up 70-75 million in 3 players for 7 years is not a good idea no matter how good they are. There's no flexibility there. <br /><br />Manny: I really don't know. The Yankees could use another hitter, but is Manny really the answer? He's a great hitter, no question. But you have to trade someone to make room. If it's Nady, fine, but who plays right, Damon or Manny? Not sure either is ideal, that's a lot of ground for Manny to cover and that's a lot of guys going first to third on Damon's arm. So you can move Damon, your leadoff hitter, or you can move Matsui, who probably can't play the field full time and so would have to be traded to an AL team with an opening at DH that believes they can contend this year and has 13 million to spend. Oh, and Matsui has to agree to it. Doesn't seem too likely to me. Plus Manny's a headcase. And how well will he and Girardi really get along? Seems like a big personality clash waiting to happen there. <br /><br />5th rotation spot: Ideally, just give it to Pettitte and call it a day. There seems to be concerns over Sheets medical records (not surprisingly) and while I was interested in him before Burnett signed, I'm less thrilled with the idea of two guys with injury question marks like that. I also don't like the idea of Lowe in that spot, I'd rather not give him a 4 year contract and it would essentially tie up all rotation spots for the next 4 years leaving no room for someone like Hughes.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-86478544834819824562008-10-03T02:32:00.002-05:002008-10-03T03:14:47.292-05:00Offseason!Yay offseason!<br /><br />Okay, not so much. Obviously the Yankees did not get it done this year, but we knew inevitably this would happen sooner or later. There were a lot of factors that fed into this...the Rays taking off this year rather than next year or in 2010 was one thing, the Yanks would have theoretically won the Wild Card if the Rays had won 88 games or less (which still would have been very impressive). Losing Wang for the year and Joba as a starter for the last two months were both huge, huge losses. Losing Posada's bat hurt as well, although Molina did a great job defensively and perhaps helped the pitching staff. Plus it didn't help that overall Cano pretty much sucked and Melky got really bad really fast. Other teams got hurt too, no excuses, but Wang and Posada missed most of the season rather than just a month or two, and their replacements were getting hurt as well. It makes things difficult. There were problems with the team anyway, but they shouldn't have been as inconsistent as they ended up being, and I suspect that if Wang, Posada, and Joba had stayed healthy, the Yankees might still be playing.<br /><br />Or hey, maybe not. That's baseball. <br /><br />So what do we have for next year?<br /><br />I'd say the following players are sure things short of a trade (and I'm not gonna assume one at the moment):<br /><br />1. Derek Jeter (Shortstop)<br />2. Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)<br />3. Johnny Damon (Left Field)<br />4. Hideki Matsui (DH)<br />5. Robinson Cano (Second Base)<br />6. Jorge Posada (Catcher)<br />7. Jose Molina (Backup Catcher)<br />8. Xavier Nady (Right Field probably)<br />9. Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder...I don't think he's a free agent yet)<br />10. Chien Ming Wang (Starter)<br />11. Joba Chamberlain (Starter)<br />12. Mariano Rivera (Closer)<br /><br />And that's pretty much it. Those are the guys who, short of a trade, are guaranteed spots. I put Joba as a starter based on Cashman saying the plan now is for him to start all season, obviously that could change. I'm also not positive on Betemit's status, but I think he's signed through 2009. There's also some question on Posada, but for now I'm assuming he's a catcher.<br /><br />That leaves a lot of work. Center field, first base, backup outfielder, additional bench player, three more starters, and probably 6 more guys in the bullpen. Obviously some will be filled with guys on the team. Phil Coke certainly looks likely to fill a bullpen spot, if he doesn't get turned into a starter. Brian Bruney also looked great and is a pretty good assumption for a bullpen spot. So let's add those two.<br /><br />13. Phil Coke (Reliever)<br />14. Brian Bruney (Reliever)<br /><br />Here's where we start venturing away from "Here are the sure things" into "What would you do?".<br /><br />I think Brett Gardner is a good bet for some spot on this team. He's either going to be the starting centerfielder or the backup outfielder I suspect, depending on whether the Yankees sign a free agent centerfielder. Personally, I'd pass and give Gardner a shot. Risky, yes, because if he hits like he did when he first got called up, that's a huge hole that will do a lot of damage to the lineup. But if he can hit even halfway decent, his speed and strong defense will allow him to fill the centerfield and 9th in the order spots at least until Austin Jackson is ready. For me, I'm going to fill him into my starting centerfielder spot.<br /><br />15. Brett Gardner (Centerfield)<br /><br />The fourth outfielder should probably be either Melky or Christian. I've soured on Melky at this point, and I think it might be better to go with Christian, who can be used as a pinch runner as well. <br /><br />16. Justin Christian (Backup Outfielder)<br /><br />Let's see, back to that bullpen. Four more spots to fill, and no easy choices. Sanchez and Melancon both interest me, but they might not be ready. There's also Marte to consider, who has an option that may get picked up. He struggled in August but looked good in September. If Sanchez or Melancon seem ready, I'd let him walk and take the draft pick...if they're not, the Yanks might need him. Veras struggled toward the end of the year, but he was overall solid, and while he may not be a closer or even setup man, I think he can be a useful reliever. Edwar is more difficult, because he got REALLY terrible in August and September. Robertson didn't look fantastic but he did have a good strikeout rate; I'd give him another shot. A long man might be nice as well, but it could depend on who makes the team as a starter. I'll give it to Dan Giese for now because he did look solid enough and I think the potential starting rotation guys that don't make the team may be better served starting in AAA until they're needed.<br /><br />17. Jose Veras (Reliever)<br />18. David Robertson (Reliever)<br />19. Damaso Marte (Reliever)<br />20. Dan Giese (Long Reliever)<br /><br />That leaves us with three starters, a first baseman, and then the last bench guy. Start with an easy one, how about first base? Well, he may not want to come, but I throw money at Mark Teixeira. He's young enough, he's very good defensively, he's a good hitter as well.<br /><br />21. Mark Teixeira (First Base)<br /><br />How about those three starters? Again, one is an easy choice if he's willing to come here, and that's CC Sabathia. He gives the Yanks the ace they need, and costs only draft picks. I'm a bit concerned about overuse (over 250 innings pre playoffs? Yikes), but I'd still throw the money at him. That gives you CC as your number 1, Wang as your number 2. I'm making Joba the number 5 for these purposes due to his likely innings restrictions...he'll probably need to serve as the 5th starter to keep the innings down. So the Yanks still need a 3rd and 4th. First off, I'd like Mussina to return. I'm not so sure he will, however. If he agrees to then I absolutely resign him and plug him into the rotation. If he doesn't I suppose Andy Pettitte can replace him, but I'm somewhat concerned about Pettitte right now. For the other spot, you can use one of the kids (Aceves, Hughes), but you can argue relying on the kids without a real backup plan is what hurt the Yankees this year. Also Hughes might be best served by spending a little time in AAA. I'd like to sign an innings eater...perhaps Lowe or Garland. There's also a possibility that both Pettitte and Moose return, but I'd personally rather avoid Andy unless Mussina retires. I wouldn't want to sign both Lowe and Garland though, there's not much of a need for the Yankees to sign two middle rotation guys to "long term" contracts (by that I mean longer than the one or maybe two years Pettitte would probably want). Also, AJ Burnett has the most upside of any of these guys except CC, but may also cost more money/more years than is ideal, and the injury risk is there.<br /><br />22. CC Sabathia (Starter)<br />23. Mike Mussina (Starter)<br />24. Derek Lowe (Starter) <br /><br />And that last bench spot can go to anyone, it doesn't really matter at this point. Preferably a slugger of some kind, but I'm not sure who offhand. <br /><br />This would give the Yanks a 2009 team of:<br /><br />1. Johnny Damon (LF)<br />2. Derek Jeter (SS)<br />3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)<br />4. Mark Teixeira (1B)<br />5. Xavier Nady (RF)<br />6. Hideki Matsui (DH)<br />7. Jorge Posada (C)<br />8. Robinson Cano (2B)<br />9. Brett Gardner (LF)<br /><br />Rotation:<br /><br />1. CC Sabathia<br />2. Chien Ming Wang<br />3. Mike Mussina<br />4. Derek Lowe<br />5. Joba Chamberlain<br /><br />Bullpen:<br /><br />1. Mariano Rivera<br />2. Damaso Marte<br />3. Brian Bruney<br />4. Phil Coke<br />5. Jose Veras<br />6. David Robertson<br />7. Dan Giese<br /><br />Bench:<br /><br />1. Wilson Betemit<br />2. Justin Christian<br />3. Jose Molina<br />4. ?<br /><br />Not too bad. The lineup isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the past, but it's potentially very solid and would help the improved starting rotation and (hopefully) improved bullpen.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-24619013297828423082008-03-31T00:48:00.002-05:002008-03-31T01:17:29.668-05:00Game #1 coming soonGame #1 is in roughly 11 hours now. The final roster is set, and as it turns out, Rasner didn't make it after all, despite Girardi saying he wanted a long man. Instead both Ohlendorf and Bruney made it, while Albaladejo also made the team (although he'll likely be replaced as soon as Pettitte is ready). Patterson did not and was apparently never in the running, although he certainly thought he was. Girardi did imply that there would be a long man at some point, likely when the bullpen appears to be getting worn out, so it's possible we'll still see Rasner soon. <br /><br />I found my overall predictions, so here they are based on not much more than gut instincts (I'm a stat guy in many ways, but I just don't have any real interest in forming some projection system to mathematically determine likely numbers...more power to those that do though, I enjoy seeing them). Obviously, these numbers aren't going to pan out, because guys will get hurt, guys will be ineffective, guys will get called up. But I don't predict for injuries or anything, so these are theoretical predictions if the 25 man roster as it stands right now (plus Pettitte and minus Albaladejo) plays the entire season intact. It won't, but I'm not predicting for that.<br /><br />I'm also not entirely happy with some of them because I originally did it with the idea that Duncan and Betemit would split time at first. I altered my original predictions a bit to account for more playing time for Giambi, a lot less for Betemit, and probably a decent amount less for Duncan (especially since I also had to add Ensberg) but I didn't want to rework the whole thing, so they're not perfect. I also stuck Phil at 160 IP, no idea what his limit is. <br /><br />Alex Rodriguez: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs<br />Bobby Abreu: .291/.398/.470, 19 Home Runs, 103 RBIs, 23 SBs<br />Hideki Matsui: .288/.370/.482, 23 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 3 SBs<br />Jorge Posada: .280/.384/.483, 21 Home Runs, 86 RBIs, 1 SB<br />Robinson Cano: .317/.362/.491, 18 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 5 SBs<br />Derek Jeter: .312/.380/.454, 14 Home Runs, 82 RBIs, 19 SBs<br />Jason Giambi: .252/.392/.502, 32 Home Runs, 91 RBIs, 0 SBs<br />Johnny Damon: .275/.358/.435, 14 Home Runs, 64 RBIs, 21 SBs<br />Melky Cabrera: .284/.341/.414, 11 Home Runs, 65 RBIs, 11 SBs<br />Shelley Duncan: .243/.320/.488, 11 Home Runs, 40 RBIs, 1 SB<br />Wilson Betemit: .249/.338/.451, 8 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 2 SBs<br />Jose Molina: .242/.281/.341, 2 Home Runs, 21 RBIs, 0 SBs<br />Morgan Ensberg: .250/.354/.445, 7 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 1 SB<br /><br />Chien Ming Wang: 19-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 118 Ks, 211 IP <br />Andy Pettitte: 17-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 137 Ks, 210 IP<br />Phil Hughes: 12-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 142 Ks, 160 IP <br />Ian Kennedy: 12-8, 4.12 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 139 Ks, 165 IP<br />Mike Mussina: 11-9, 4.68 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 85 Ks, 130 IP<br />Joba Chamberlain: 9-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 145 Ks, 142 IP<br />Mariano Rivera: 3-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 70 Ks, 72 IP, 34 Saves<br />Kyle Farnsworth: 2-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 60 Ks, 61 IP<br />LaTroy Hawkins: 3-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 32 Ks, 58 IP<br />Ross Ohlendorf: 4-4, 4.15 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 55 Ks, 65 IP<br />Brian Bruney: 2-5, 4.40 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 70 Ks, 66 IP<br />Billy Traber: 1-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 22 Ks, 35 IP<br /><br />Traber's numbers are also partly based on the idea that he'd be primarily a guy who faces lefties. If he gets into facing righties often I'd expect more innings but a higher ERA and WHIP.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-10377741085359429472008-03-27T14:59:00.002-05:002008-03-27T15:12:00.467-05:00Opening Day Nearing...So as you can see I stopped doing the predictions, because frankly I've been too busy. I may still have them written down somewhere and if I do, I'll post them without any real explanation just for the heck of it. <br /><br />The season starts Monday for the Yankees, and the roster is close to being finalized. I surprisingly (to me) wasn't that far off, although it isn't set yet. I had Nick Green rather than Morgan Ensberg, but the original post went up before Ensberg was even a possibility. And it looks like Rasner will make the roster, while Patterson has really opened some eyes and could get that last spot.<br /><br />Looks to me like we have 24 spots essentuiually filled, and a three man race for the final spot.<br /><br />1. Johnny Damon<br />2. Derek Jeter<br />3. Robinson Cano<br />4. Jorge Posada<br />5. Alex Rodriguez<br />6. Hideki Matsui<br />7. Melky Cabrera<br />8. Bobby Abreu<br />9. Jason Giambi<br />10. Wilson Betemit<br />11. Jose Molina<br />12. Shelley Duncan<br />13. Morgan Ensberg<br />14. Chien Ming Wang<br />15. Mike Mussina<br />16. Andy Pettitte<br />17. Ian Kennedy<br />18. Phil Hughes<br />19. Mariano Rivera<br />20. Joba Chamberlain<br />21. LaTroy Hawkins<br />22. Kyle Farnsworth<br />23. Billy Traber<br />24. Darrell Rasner<br />25. ?<br /><br />Traber's the only non Igawa lefty left as far as I remember, with Henn on the DL and Phillips sent down. He's pretty much made the team unless Girardi changes his mind about carrying a lefty. As for the long man spot that Girardi has said he wants, Igawa hasn't pitched well at all, and Karstens appears to have been injured today, which leaves Rasner as the only real option (and the person I would have picked anyway). <br /><br />That leaves one spot. Seems like it's a three man race at this point, between Ross Ohlendorf, Brian Bruney, and Scott Patterson. Ohlendorf seems least likely to me right now (with 2 more games remaining for that to change). He's pitched very well but has allowed the most hits out of the three (none have walked a lot of guys) and in theory could gain some benefit from being in AAA for a little bit. Patterson has pitched far and away better than any of the three, and better than anyone in camp too. It's not even close. But he's also never pitched above AA, so they may want to see what he can do in AAA first. Bruney has pitched very well and probably has the least to gain from being sent to the minors; at this point he'd just be sitting around waiting for a callup. <br /><br />All three have options remaining as is my understanding, so that wouldn't factor in. I think it's between Bruney and Patterson right now, and it will depend solely on whether Patterson was ever really "in the race" or whether it was always intended he'd be sent down unless every other reliever was god awful. Ohlendorf still has a shot though.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-5945404000943323702008-02-17T02:01:00.002-05:002008-02-17T02:13:32.036-05:00The MooseAccording to a few different people, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/yankees/">Mark Feinsand</a> and <a href="http://yankees.lhblogs.com/">Peter Abraham</a> amond others) Mike Mussina had Phil Hughes' locker moved from between Pettitte and Pavano to the spot next to his. Ian Kennedy is already on the other side of Mussina.<br /><br />I've always been a fan of Mussina. He gets a lot of criticism, some deserved, some not, but I'll always remember some of his biggest games for the Yankees. Remember the Jeter Flip? Moose was the one who had the Yankees in a position to win by pitching a shutout. Remember Aaron Boone hitting that home run off Wakefield? Of course you do, but it's unfortunate that less people remember the fact that if not for Mike Mussina brilliantly escaping an inherited first and third, nobody out jam followed by two more scoreless innings, the Yankees are headed home. Seriously, if Mike Mussina allows a sacrifice fly and then a double play, everyone would have said he did a good job, and yet the Yankees would have lost. But he got out of it without allowing a run. Everytime someone claims he can't pitch in big spots (and sometimes he has come up short, like...you know...most pitchers), there's an example of him being out of his element (relieving), pitching in one of the biggest games of his life in one of the toughest situations you'll ever see. <br /><br />Anyway, I digress. Mussina had a good 2006, but otherwise has struggled for years now. Last year he was overall pretty terrible. But the bottom line is the Yankees need someone to fill a rotation spot. With Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba all on innings counts, Wang and Pettitte alone aren't going to cut it. Maybe you can find someone at this point that can put up slightly better numbers than Mussina (but I stress maybe, pickings are slim), but it may not be so easy to find that veteran presence. Wang's a kid too, in baseball years. Pettitte's a veteran presence, but he has his own problems to deal with. That leaves Mike Mussina, and you know what, Ian and Phil can do a heck of a lot worse. I think it's great to see Mussina step up, ready and willing to teach the kids whatever he can, and not just because someone tells him he should. One of these kids could be knocking him out of the rotation this year, but he's still willing to teach them. I think thats great. So thumbs up to Mike Mussina, and if Hughes and Kennedy can have anywhere close to the career and consistency Mussina has had prior to 2004, Yankee fans will be very, very happy with the results.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-84304131066630716962008-02-17T01:46:00.001-05:002008-02-17T01:53:58.134-05:00Dynasty? Really?<a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0312385676/netshrinecom-20"></a><br /><br />So apparently a book about the new Red Sox dynasty is coming out. <br /><br />Look, the Red Sox are an excellent team right now. And yes, they're the only team so far this decade to win it all more than once. But dynasty? Oh come on. The 2004 team and the 2007 team aren't even that similar. You have a few of the same core players (Ortiz, Manny, Varitek, Schilling) and a couple guys who are steady contributors but not the big time players (Wakefield, Timlin) but beyond that, not a heck of a lot. No Papelbon, no Pedroia in 2004. Youkilis wasn't a full time player. No Beckett, no Matsuzaka, no Lester, no Lowell, no Lugo, no Crisp, no Drew, no Okajima, the list goes on. Hell, Boston got swept in the first round in 2005, and then didn't even come in second in their division in 2006. Am I supposed to believe the amazing ability of the 2004 team carried over all the way to 2007 to form this new dynasty? <br /><br />Could this team become a dynasty? Sure. I'm not trying to bash the Red Sox here, they have a very good team. But the 2004 team has little to do with the 2007 team, and even if they had almost the same players, it takes a lot more than two wins in four years to be a dynasty. The Blue Jays did better than that in the early 90s, winning back to back...are they a dynasty? Of course not. <br /><br />Anyway, hey, spring training is here!Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-40867770608385258232008-02-14T22:45:00.002-05:002008-02-14T22:53:54.262-05:00Alex RodriguezAlex Rodriguez<br /><br />2007 Stats: .314/.422/.645, 54 Home Runs, 156 RBIs, 24 Stolen Bases<br /><br />Last year, Alex had one of the better seasons you'll ever see. He easily won the MVP...now, can he repeat it? <br /><br />Probably not, but that's not exactly a knock on him. When someone has a year like that, it's not fair to expect them to put up those numbers again. That doesn't mean he can't have another MVP caliber season however, and I fully expect him to. I think he may have turned a bit of a corner last year in that he seemed to have stopped letting the crowd and media reactions dictate how he plays. In 2006 it was clear that he was effected by the booing, and while he didn't really have to deal with it much this past season (getting off to such a strong start in April with two walkoffs will do that for you), he had plenty of other things going on that the media wouldn't leave him alone about. It didn't appear to effect him at all, and if he can keep that going, there's no reason to think he can't continue to put up MVP caliber seasons for a bit longer. <br /><br /><strong>Prediction: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs</strong><br /><br />Yeah, it's down a little, but I'd sign for those numbers right now, and really, who wouldn't?Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-3175662214445759822008-02-11T19:28:00.000-05:002008-02-11T19:52:35.229-05:00PredictionsLeading up to the start of the season, I'm going to start taking a look at the players who will be on the team (barring injury, of course). A little early, sure, but pitchers and catchers are reporting soon, and I don't intend to do more than one a day (and I know I won't have one every single day), so now's a good time to start. I'll start out with guys we know (again, barring injury) will be on the team, and hopefully by the time I get to the end, some of the other spots will be a little clearer.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-72229942971665715612008-01-31T22:40:00.000-05:002008-01-31T22:48:01.825-05:00Morgan EnsbergAdd Ensberg to the list of players who could potentially make the 25 man. Will he? I'm not sure. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, then it's probably a no brainer. If he is, I think Ensberg still has a chance as he's probably the best hitter out of anyone else who could fill the final bench spot (if the Yankees decide to carry 12 pitchers), but it may not make much sense. He'd essentially fill the same role as Shelley Duncan, except he can play third base instead of the corner outfield spots. <br /><br />I can see a scenario where you have both Duncan and Ensberg starting against a tough lefty (with one at first base and the other DHing, with both Giambi and Damon sitting), but I don't think that's too likely. Still, Ensberg is as much a possibility as any of the others based on his bat and potential.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-86177403545202276982008-01-30T02:21:00.000-05:002008-01-30T02:27:22.410-05:00SantanaThe long national nightmare is almost over. After months of speculation, news stories, speculation, trade offers, speculation, and oh, did I mention speculation, Johan Santana has been freed from his confines in Minnesota and will be headed to New York. But not, as hoped/feared (depending on which side you take), as a member of the Yankees. <br /><br />Seems to me that the Twins GM did overplay his hand. The Yankees apparently were out of it entirely at this point, and there are differing reports on whether Boston was really offering much at this point. I was never crazy about the Red Sox offer, but it was probably more of a sure thing than what the Twins had to settle for. And maybe it's just me, but I thought Hughes was the best player offered in any deal, and perhaps the Twins made an error in judgement by waiting too long, as that window closed prety quickly.<br /><br />But right now I'm glad it went down the way it did. Boston doesn't get Santana and the Yankees get to keep Hughes (not to mention Melky, Kennedy, and any other prospects that might have been involved). Would Santana have been nice, sure, but on the other hand he also would have cost a lot of money and expected a long contract. If you're going to give it to any pitcher, it's got to be Santana, but still. I'm a big fan of Phil's, and I'm glad I'll get to see him pitch as a Yankee.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-25147195484343559622008-01-24T21:59:00.000-05:002008-01-24T23:00:33.983-05:00The RelieversFirst, rumors are that Cano and the Yankees are close on a deal for a 4 year, 30 million dollar contract, with the possibility of one or two option years. Without the option years it's somewhat pointless, just a means to avoid going to arbitration. With them, it could be a potentially very valuable deal. Smart move, in my opinion.<br /><br />Last time I looked at the spots in the 25 man roster that were likely set in stone, as well as who might fill the final offensive spots. Now I'll take a look at which pitchers are going to be attending Spring Training (as of now) and who might find themselves on the major league roster to start the season. For the purposes of this, I didn't bother with Carl Pavano, Humberto Sanchez, or Andrew Brackman, all on the 40 man roster. Brackman won't even be ready for the minors until 2009 in all likelihood (certainly not to start the season), and Pavano probably won't be back with the Yankees at all, and again, certainly not before the end of the season. Sanchez is an interesting case as he could have an impact with the Yankees this season, but he won't be ready to start the season. I'll also seperate the guys into righties and lefties, simply because one of the lefties may end up making the team even though the righties are more plentiful and probably could be better.<br /><br /><div align="center"><strong>RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS</strong></div><br /><strong>Ross Ohlendorf:</strong> Ohlendorf received a September callup in 2007 and pitched very well (albeit in 6 innings). He struggled in his one inning in the playoffs, but the fact that he even made the roster should tell you something. Ohlendorf seems like a decent bet to make the team to start the season, although it's not out of the question that he could go back to the minors for a little while.<br /><br /><strong>Edwar Ramirez: </strong>I really don't know what to make of Edwar. His changeup is just disgustingly good and his minor league numbers are fantastic. If he had a second good pitch I'd write the poor major league numbers off as extenuating circumstances and give him a shot right out of Spring Training. But realistically, Edwar's fastball just isn't that great. If hitters are able to sit on it, he's going to have a problem in the majors, no matter how great his changeup is. He's got as good a shot as anyone to make the team out of Spring Training, but he's another guy who I expect to be on a short leash. I'd love to see him succeed, especially with that great changeup, but he may need something more.<br /><br /><strong>Brian Bruney: </strong>Bruney might be out of options, I'm actually not sure. When he can keep his control even somewhat in line, he does have very good stuff, and Yankee fans saw that from time to time last season. Unfortunately, he doesn't always manage that very well, and Yankee fans saw that as well. He's also got a good chance to make the team if he has a strong spring, but he, like almost everyone on this list, is going to be on a very short leash.<br /><br /><strong>Mark Melancon: </strong>Added for the sake of completeness. He won't make the team out of Spring Training, that's pretty much a certainty. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him on the Yankees later this season, if he has a strong showing in the minors.<br /><br /><strong>Chris Britton:</strong> Poor Chris couldn't buy a callup last season it seemed. And when he did make it, he pitched fairly well for the most part but still wasn't trusted. Perhaps Girardi will be different. Britton actually has some success in the AL East (he had a good season in Baltimore), so he really should get a shot at least.<br /><br /><strong>Jeff Marquez:</strong> Nope, he's likely to be back in the minors as a starter, although he could see time during the season in case of injuries.<br /><br /><strong>Jose Veras: </strong>Here's another possibility after a decent September (he was better than his final numbers show, almost all of his earned runs came in a single game). He too made the playoff roster, so like Ohlendorf, that does show the Yankees are high enough on him that he likely has a shot at making the 25 man out of Spring Training.<br /><br /><strong>Jonathan Albaladejo: </strong>For those who don't recall, he's the guy who came over from the Nationals in the Tyler Clippard trade. He did decent but not great in AA last season, but was excellent in AAA and had a strong September with the Nats. He's certainly a possibility to make it out of Spring Training, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him sent to AAA so the Yankees can see firsthand what they got before sending him to the majors (not unlike Chris Britton).<br /><br /><strong>Jeff Karstens: </strong>If Kennedy and Joba are both on the roster, then forget it. If not, then Karstens is a possibility for a long relief role. I'm not a huge fan though, to be honest. He struggled greatly last year when not injured, and I don't think he's a great option out of the bullpen.<br /><br /><strong>Darrell Rasner:</strong> Another guy Yankee fans have seen for the past couple of years, Rasner was actually taken off the 40 man, which may not be a good sign for how the organization views him. However, I like Rasner. Realistically the Yankee organization is not the place for him, since there are way too many starting options above him. However, if Kennedy (or Joba I suppose) starts the season in the minors, I think Rasner would be an excellent option for a long relief role.<br /><br /><strong>Daniel McCutchen: </strong>Nope. He could end up as a reliever, but at the moment he's a starter. He'll head back to the minors for now, but it's not out of the question we could see him this year. I'd expect him in 2009 though.<br /><br /><strong>Alan Horne: </strong>Here's an interesting one. Horne had an excellent season in the minors last year as a starter, and he could continue down that path. However, there are a few guys ahead of him, and Horne does have stuff that would probably translate well to the bullpen. I doubt he makes it out of Spring Training, I expect the Yankees to have him continue to pitch as a starter in the minors for the time being, but he's a guy we could see sometime during the season, as a reliever or starter depending on how he is needed.<br /><br /><strong>Steven Jackson:</strong> I doubt he has any real shot at making the team as a reliever short of something very bizarre happening. Eventually I suppose it's a possibility, but he still has things to work on in the minors.<br /><br /><strong>Steven White: </strong>Here's someone I think we will see sometime this season, and perhaps even right out of Spring Training if he does very well. White's been with the organization for a bit now and just finished a season at AAA. The Yankees are going to need to make a decision about him soon. He's probably going to be blocked as a starter unless a few injuries occur, so the Yanks may as well try him out in the bullpen.<br /><br /><strong>Scott Patterson: </strong>Patterson has done very well in the minors so far, but he's not thought as highly of as many others. He should have a shot though if he does well in Spring Training, and unless he starts struggling in the minors, he's a good bet to at least be given a chance to do something in the majors at some point this season.<br /><br /><strong>Daniel Giese: </strong>The nice thing about Giese is that he doesn't walk a lot of people (remember how frustrated we as Yankee fans would get when we had Farnsworth, Proctor, and Bruney all walking the ballpark?). He will give up his share of hits, but he's got a chance at making the bullpen. If not, we could still see him at some point this year.<br /><br /><strong>Scott Strickland:</strong> Strickland is interesting in that he actually has some major league experience (although all in the NL), where he did pretty well. But he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2005, and there only for 4 innings. I expect him to head to AAA, but he could be an option at some point.<br /><br /><div align="center"><strong>LEFT HANDED PITCHERS</strong></div><br /><br /><strong>Kei Igawa: </strong>At some point the Yankees are likely to do something with Igawa, they're paying him enough. He may initially be viewed as a starting option in cae of injury to multiple pitchers, but at some point they should try to either trade him or see if he can work in the bullpen at all. I'd be shocked if he made the team out of spring training, but we'll probably end up seeing him at some point this season, in some role.<br /><br /><strong>Heath Phillips:</strong> I suppose he's a possibility, but it doesn't seem too likely. <br /><br /><strong>Chase Wright: </strong>Here's someone we saw as a starter last season. I expect Chase to be converted to the bullpen, and it might be pretty soon, but I wouldn't expect him to make the team out of spring training.<br /><br /><strong>Sean Henn: </strong>Henn occasionally showed some flashes of brilliance, but overall has struggled everytime he pitched in the majors. He's quickly running out of chances, and he may not even get one this time. However, he's probably a better bet to make the team (should they decide they need a left handed reliever) than Wright, Phillips, or Igawa.<br /><br /><strong>Billy Traber:</strong> Traber may not be a great bet and normally would be ignored, however, if you look at his career splits against lefties, they're quite good. He may not be ideal, especially since the splits against righties are, well, not at all good. But if it's between him or Henn, he has a good chance at making the team.<br /><br />That's everyone. So who do the Yankees go with? I honestly don't know. I think Ohlendorf is going to make the team, so that's one of the three remaining spots. I'm also going to guess Bruney makes it, because I believe he's out of options. If it was me, I'd probably cut ties with him or at least try to send him down to the minors, but we'll see. That leaves one spot. I'd rather see a guy like Britton, Albaladejo, or Veras get a shot (or perhaps Edwar), but if the Yankees choose to go with a lefty, I'll guess that Traber makes it. <br /><br />So my best guess for a final roster:<br /><br />1. Jorge Posada<br />2. Robinson Cano<br />3. Derek Jeter<br />4. Alex Rodriguez<br />5. Hideki Matsui<br />6. Johnny Damon<br />7. Melky Cabrera<br />8. Bobby Abreu<br />9. Wilson Betemit<br />10. Shelley Duncan<br />11. Jason Giambi<br />12. Jose Molina<br />13. Nick Green<br />14. Chien Ming Wang<br />15. Andy Pettitte<br />16. Phil Hughes<br />17. Joba Chamberlain<br />18. Mike Mussina<br />19. Mariano Rivera<br />20. Kyle Farnsworth<br />21. LaTroy Hawkins<br />22. Ian Kennedy<br />23. Ross Ohlendorf<br />24. Brian Bruney<br />25. Billy Traber<br /><br />Nick Green could be replaced with Alberto Gonzalez, Kennedy could be replaced by Rasner or Karstens, and those last three could be switched out with any number of guys, but I think that's a good possibility for the opening day roster, if there are no more trades and people stay healthy.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-44568957938276967262008-01-19T21:19:00.000-05:002008-01-19T23:23:52.210-05:00Opening Day Roster?We're not there yet, but we're getting closer, so let's take a look at who will be on the team, who is likely to be on the team, and who might fill those remaining spots on the 25 man roster come the start of the 2008 season. This, of course, is assuming no more trades and everyone stays healthy.<br /><br /><br /><br /><div align="center"><strong>LOCKS</strong></div><div align="left"><br /><strong></strong>Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Jose Molina, Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Wilson Betemit<br /><br />The first 17 guys are fairly obvious and don't really need any explanation. The only one I want to add anything to is Betemit. Cashman seemed to imply there was going to be a race for the 1st base spot, which Betemit will likely be a part of...however, it's a certainty that even if someone else ends up as the full time first baseman (as opposed to the platoon that currently seems likely), Betemit will be on the team in some role.<br /><br /></div><strong></strong><div align="center"><strong>NEAR LOCKS</strong></div><div align="center"></div><div align="left"><strong></strong></div>These guys are almost certainly going to be on the team, but there's just enough of a question mark that I didn't want to include them above.<br /><br /><strong>Shelley Duncan</strong>: Assuming health, Shelley's almost certain to make the team. Currently, it seems that he'll end up as part of a first base platoon with Wilson Betemit...his ability to also play the outfield in an emergency is helpful as well. However, if someone else (Juan Miranda for example) manages to win the first base job, Duncan isn't an absolute lock (like Betemit is) to be on the 25 man in some way. It's extremely likely Duncan breaks camp with the team, but you never know.<br /><br /><strong>Joba Chamberlain</strong>: Again, almost certain that Joba enters the 2008 season on the major league team in some capacity, either as a reliever or a starter. However, it's not absolutely out of the question that, in an attempt to have him ease back into the starters role, to work on the changeup, and to keep his innings down, that the Yankees could send him down to AAA for a month to start the season. At the end of 2007 I thought this was the best option, but the Yankees seem to imply that he will definitely be on the team in some capacity right from day one. However, just in case, I include him here.<br /><br /><strong>Mike Mussina</strong>: I include him here only because of that slight possibility he looks so god awful in spring training, while Joba and Kennedy look so dominant, that the Yankees just cut their losses. Extremely, extremely unlikely, but there it is.<br /><br />That gives us 20 guys. 12 hitters, 8 pitchers (including 5 starters). So how about those other 5 spots?<br /><br /><br /><br /><div align="center"><strong>THE OTHER SPOTS</strong></div><br /><strong>Ian Kennedy</strong>: This is tough to call. The thing is, Kennedy's ready. He's probably even more ready than Joba in terms of needing less development (Joba's changeup could use some work). Plus he threw more innings than Joba this past season, so he's more capable than him (and probably even Hughes) to pitch a full season. He also doesn't have the stuff of either Hughes or Joba, and he's not a potential ace. Since Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes are all definite locks for the rotation, and Mussina is almost certainly there too, it depends on what the Yankees do with Joba. If Joba starts the year in the bullpen to keep his innings down, then it's a no brainer that Kennedy makes the team. If the Yankees change their mind and send Joba to AAA to start the season, Kennedy makes the team. But if Joba does begin the year as a starter, as the Yankees keep saying, then I honestly don't know. It just seems a waste to make Kennedy a reliever, but he really doesn't seem to have much to do in the minors. My guess is Kennedy makes the team in some way, but he may get shoved into the spot starter/long relief role until someone falters, which I don't think is a great idea.<br /><br />Beyond Ian, the Yankees will carry at least one more hitter. This one depends on a lot of factors, though. The possibilities, going by the 40 man roster and the 26 non roster invitees:<br /><br /><strong>Juan Miranda</strong>: He would make the team as the first baseman, if he made it at all. I doubt he does. I could definitely see Miranda getting a mid season callup if he does well, but I doubt he starts the year in the majors. However, Cashman hinted that he was in the mix for the first base job, so he should be brought up.<br /><br /><strong>Jason Lane</strong>: He's another candidate for the first base job. I just don't see it happening, though. He hasn't played much first base, and I don't see him beating out Duncan or Betemit. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, Lane would probably make it in his spot, but otherwise, I doubt it.<br /><br /><strong>Bernie Castro</strong>: A candidate for the utility job, if Betemit is the first baseman (or a major part of a platoon). Very unlikely, really only played second base in the past. But he was invited, so there you are.<br /><br /><strong>Cody Ransom</strong>: Another non roster invitee and candidate for the utility job. He's got a better shot than Castro, but I still think it's unlikely.<br /><br /><strong>Nick Green</strong>: One of the two major candidates for the utility job, I suspect. He's done this before, and it's probably between him and Alberto Gonzalez.<br /><br /><strong>Alberto Gonzalez</strong>: As mentioned, it may be between him and Green for the utility job. Neither guy has shown much hitting wise, and both are good defensively. The question is, do you want to go for the younger guy with more theoretical potential (since we already know what we'll get from Green)? Or do you want Gonzalez to stay in AAA and see if he can get any better? The problem is he really isnt likely to get many at bats as a utility infielder for the Yankees, especially since there are three first baseman already (Duncan, Betemit, Giambi). All of his at bats would have to come from replacing Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano, three guys who rarely miss games and are too important to the offense to afford them missing many games. To me, it depends on how you view Gonzalez. If you think he can get better, leave him in AAA. If you think what he is now is what you're going to get, give him a shot at the majors.<br /><br />So based on everything above, that gives us a theoretical opening day roster of:<br /><br />1. Jorge Posada<br />2. Robinson Cano<br />3. Derek Jeter<br />4. Alex Rodriguez<br />5. Hideki Matsui<br />6. Johnny Damon<br />7. Melky Cabrera<br />8. Bobby Abreu<br />9. Wilson Betemit<br />10. Shelley Duncan<br />11. Jason Giambi<br />12. Jose Molina<br />13. Alberto Gonzalez/Nick Green<br />14. Chien Ming Wang<br />15. Andy Pettitte<br />16. Phil Hughes<br />17. Joba Chamberlain<br />18. Mike Mussina<br />19. Mariano Rivera<br />20. Kyle Farnsworth<br />21. LaTroy Hawkins<br />22. Ian Kennedy (in some role)<br /><br />I'd say except for the possibility of Kennedy opening the season in AAA, and the fact that Spring Training may determine whether Gonzalez or Green breaks camp with the major league team, those 22 are very likely.<br /><br />In my next post I'll look at the pitching possibilities for the final three bullpen spots.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-76651234634272551232008-01-19T20:58:00.000-05:002008-01-19T21:11:28.799-05:00Arbitration figures!So the Yankees have four players who were eligible for arbitration. They already reached a deal with Wilson Betemit, leaving three left.<br /><br />Brian Bruney wants $845,000, the Yankees are offering $640,000. I imagine they'll come to an agreement relatively soon. Overall Bruney really wasn't that good last year, and aside from small sample sizes, has yet to be anywhere. I think $640,000 is more than reasonable, but they're close enough that they should be able to find a middle ground.<br /><br />Chien Ming Wang wants 4.6 million, the Yankees are offering 4 million. Again, they're pretty close together here, I imagine they'll come to a deal.<br /><br />The big question is Robinson Cano. Cano wants 4.55 million...the Yankees are offering only 3.2 million. That's a huge gap, and really kind of surprises me. I expected the Yankees to make similar offers to Wang and Cano, but that's quite a bit off. In 2006 Cano was contending for a batting title at the end of the season, and this past year, he was one of the best hitters on the team after the all star break, putting up very good numbers while playing a strong second base. I'd like to say they come to a deal without going to a hearing, but they're off by an awful lot. I don't know that 4.55 million is a great number, but I imagine it's more likely to be chosen over 3.2 million, which just seems low.<br /><br />Of course, the other question is "Hey, why not sign these guys to long term deals?" I like Cashman a lot, but the idea of never giving extensions or not signing the younger guys to longer deals is one I disagree with. Look, I understand the idea behind not doing it, and I don't want extensions to become common, nor do I want every young guy signed to long contracts when we really don't know what we'll get from them. But Cano and Wang have been very good, consistently, for 2 and a half years now. Cano in particular just isn't going to be replaced anytime soon...how can you? A longer deal not only buys out a couple of his free agent years at a cheaper price while also making him happy (presumably, I suppose it's possible he doesn't WANT a longer deal), but it avoids the need to go to arbitration every off season, which can save money in and of itself. Maybe the Yankees want to give it another season, I don't know, but these types of things can hurt the team. Same with the extensions...remember how Posada and Mariano wanted extensions at the beginning of 2007? Short of a serious career ending injury (which can happen anytime anyway) everyone knew the Yanks would be trying to resign both guys. If they went for an extension, they probably could have gotten Mariano to come back for quite a bit less money per year, and they probably could have given Posada a 3 year extension instead of signing him to a 4 year contract. Maybe this ends up hurting the Yankees too, maybe not, but in my mind, sometimes it's okay to consider long term deals or extensions.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-46968644468730238882007-08-27T20:33:00.000-05:002007-08-27T21:10:08.210-05:00MussinaSo, here's the thing. I know everyone is calling for Mussina's head right now (and deservedly so). People want him out of the rotation. All well and good, but who do you replace him with? Unfortunately, we can't just magically take him out of the rotation and all is well, you have to put someone else into that spot, and that's where the problem comes up. Let's take a look at the pitchers on the 40 man roster:<br /><br /><strong>TJ Beam</strong>: Reliever<br /><strong>Andrew Brackman</strong>: Just drafted, getting Tommy John surgery<br /><strong>Chris Britton</strong>: Reliever, may have killed a family member of Joe Torre or Brian Cashman<br /><strong>Jim Brower</strong>: Reliever, struggled in his short time with the Yankees<br /><strong>Brian Bruney</strong>: Reliever, already in the majors<br /><strong>Joba Chamberlain</strong>: Near his innings count, incredibly effective out of the bullpen, unlikely to make the move from starter to bullpen back to starter (followed by back to bullpen in all likelihood) for this season<br /><strong>Roger Clemens</strong>: In the rotation<br /><strong>Tyler Clippard</strong>: Struggling big time, has yet to recover, poor MLB numbers overall this year<br /><strong>Matt DeSalvo</strong>: Mediocre at best in his time in the majors. Sadly, may actually be the best option.<br /><strong>Kyle Farnsworth</strong>: Reliever<br /><strong>Sean Henn</strong>: Reliever, struggling in that role, doesn't have the pitches to be an effective starter<br /><strong>Phil Hughes</strong>: In the rotation<br /><strong>Kei Igawa</strong>: Has struggled big time in multiple trips to the majors<br /><strong>Jeff Karstens</strong>: Awful in the majors this year, although he has pitched pretty decent in the minors, in a small sample size.<br /><strong>Mike Mussina</strong>: In the rotation for now<br /><strong>Carl Pavano</strong>: 60 Day DL, Yankee career is probably over anyway<br /><strong>Andy Pettitte</strong>: In the rotation<br /><strong>Edwar Ramirez</strong>: Reliever<br /><strong>Darrell Rasner</strong>: Unfortunately, on the 60 Day DL. I believe his season is over. He probably would have been the best option.<br /><strong>Mariano Rivera</strong>: Reliever<br /><strong>Humberto Sanchez</strong>: 60 Day DL, season over<br /><strong>Jose Veras</strong>: 60 Day DL, reliever anyway<br /><strong>Ron Villone</strong>: 15 day DL, one time spot starter at best, has struggled recently<br /><strong>Luis Vizcaino</strong>: Reliever<br /><strong>Chien Ming Wang</strong>: In the rotation<br /><strong>Chase Wright</strong>: Struggled in his time in the majors, hasn't been all that good in the minors this year after a strong start<br /><br />And that's everyone on the 40 man. Anyone else would require a 40 man roster move (a difficult decision even before you consider Mientkiewicz is likely to come off the 60 day DL soon). Even if the Yankees made a move, who do you call up? My understanding is Ian Kennedy is either at or very close to his innings limit. Alan Horne is probably around there too. The only other name I even see as a possibility is Steven White (who is around or just below 100 IP), who has been pretty good in AAA this season. But I'm not sure if he is someone the Yankees would want to call up, especially considering the required 40 man roster move.<br /><br />That pretty much leaves you with a choice between Mussina, Igawa, Karstens, or DeSalvo. None of them have had good years. For me, I'd have to reluctantly go with Mussina unless he struggles mightily in his next start (which would be against Tampa Bay). Prior to this recent horrific stretch, Mussina had been pitching quite well against bad teams. In September, the Yankees have one series against Boston, one against Seattle, and then a lot against mediocre to awful teams. Mussina may be awful against good teams right now, but let's be honest here. Igawa was awful against BAD teams. Karstens hasn't shown anything against good or bad teams. The best you can say about DeSalvo is he had two good starts against Seattle. Other than that, he was bad, against bad teams.<br /><br />Mussina sucks right now. No question. But in this case, the potential replacements aren't any better, and at least Mussina has pitched well against bad teams at the major league level, something Igawa, Karstens, and DeSalvo can't say. I'm as frustrated as anyone with Mussina, and unless he really shows some dominance the rest of the season he shouldn't be anywhere near the starting rotation in the playoffs (should the Yankees make it), but realistically, unless I'm mistaken about Kennedy, Horne, or perhaps White, there's nobody else likely to be much better.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-60555936904020356672007-04-15T00:35:00.000-05:002007-04-15T00:57:48.666-05:00Yankees (Rasner) VS A's (Blanton), Game 10<strong>Game 10: New York Yankees VS Oakland A's</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>The Starter: </strong>Rasner pitched really well tonight. It looked like we'd be in for a rough ride after he gave up 4 hits in the first inning and allowed 3 runs (all unearned thanks to a Jeter error, though), but from that point on he only gave up one more hit, and walked nobody. He had a great strike to ball ratio too. The one glaring problem was that he only went 5 and 1/3rd IP (not his fault, Torre pulled him way too early as the rest of the game would show). I'd say he earned himself another start after that.<br /><br /><strong>The Bullpen: </strong>Yet again, the bullpen pitches ridiculously well and bails the Yankees out yet again. And this time there was no screwing around...every single pitcher in the bullpen made an appearance. They pitched 7 and 2/3rd innings of scoreless ball. Yeah, there were some hits and walks scattered around, but they got the job done, period. This bullpen has seriously bailed the Yankees out this year. Words can't quite describe how ridiculously good the bullpen has been for the most part. Farnsworth has had some problems (although he pitched a scoreless inning tonight) and Proctor struggled a little to start, but that's it. Everyone knew Mariano would be lights out and I thought Vizcaino would be good, but Henn and Bruney in particular have been absolutely lights out. And special credit to Bruney tonight.<br /><br /><strong>The Offense: </strong>Well, it could have been better. They had their chances to win this game earlier than the 13th inning and didn't get it done, but Blanton also pitched well, and Street always pitches well against the Yanks. A-Rod had another important home run, Posada had a big pinch hit double, and of course, Giambi finally gets another home run to take the lead in the 13th. He hasn't been hitting well this year, but his two home runs have both been huge. Nice job for Cano, too. 3 for 4 and 2 walks, with 2 runs scored. A very good game for him.<br /><br /><strong>The Defense: </strong>Okay. Overall, good lord, this was bad. Four errors on the day! Jeter's error in the first was particularly bad as it cost the Yankees all 3 runs. But in spite of the sloppy game again, there were a few nice plays. Jeter made a couple, and Melky did as well, including gunning down Crosby to end the first inning when he tried to score. Doesn't sound that big since it was the first, but guess what? That run scores and the Yanks lose. Think about that, all you "early runs don't count" folks who always used that to bash A-Rod. So while the defense was insanely sloppy today and four errors is clearly bad, at least this time there were a couple nice game saving plays.<br /><br /><strong>Player of the Game: </strong>I'm going to give it to Brian Bruney. Giambi had the huge home run in the 13th that the Yankees really badly needed. Bruney was clearly shot and couldn't have pitched a 14th in all likelihood, which means that unless Pavano is healthier than we've been led to believe, Andy Pettitte was coming into that game and we would have to go scrounge up another pitcher from the minors to start tomorrow. So big, big home run for Giambi.<br /><br />But I feel like I need to give credit to Brian Bruney. Last night in a loss that was barely his fault (the triple was, but he really should have been out of that in the end), he threw 36 pitches and supposedly wasn't even going to be available today. But with everyone else used, Bruney had to come in in the 12th, and pitched a perfect inning. Then he came back out for the 13th after Giambi hit the home run and, while very clearly running on fumes alone, walked the first batter on four straight pitches, gave up two long outs, and then struck out the final batter to end the game. Bruney went way above and beyond what he should have been asked to do considering the circumstances, but because the alternative was bringing in tomorrow's starter, Bruney went back out there and got the job done. He shouldn't have even had to pitch one inning after yesterday; instead he pitches two. I give Giambi a world of credit for his huge home run and normally I would have given it to him, but it was partly because he wasn't hitting beforehand that the Yanks were even in the 13th. The bullpen stepped up big time tonight, and nobody moreso than Brian Bruney. Yet again, the bullpen is the reason why we won this game.<br /><br /><strong>Overall Thoughts:</strong> Pettitte better pitch a complete game tomorrow, because this is killing me here. Someone needs to check the pulse of the bullpen, because they're practically dead after the last two nights. Mariano can go for an inning tomorrow, and I'm sure a couple more such as Henn can throw a bit, but there is no way Bruney pitches tomorrow, and Farnsworth, Vizcaino, and Proctor all pitched the last two days. Henn can definitely go a couple innings if necessary, but it'd be nice if he didn't have to. Great win for the Yanks tonight, and it's a real blessing that Monday is an off day. This bullpen needs about a week off, and deserves it too.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-42206738696605807492007-04-10T01:43:00.000-05:002007-04-10T02:03:17.203-05:00Yankees (Pavano) VS Twins (Ponson), Game 6<strong>Game 6: New York Yankees VS Minnesota Twins</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>The Starter: </strong>Much, much, much better. Pavano went 7 innings and gave up 2 runs, 6 hits, and no walks. And really, if he felt like it, Torre could have left him in another inning. He only threw 79 pitches. A very encouraging start especially based on the fact that Pavano pitched well until he tired out in the 5th inning in his first start. Hopefully this is the Pavano we'll see more often than not.<br /><br /><strong>The Bullpen: </strong>Perhaps the best part of Pavano's start was that the bullpen actually got a little rest. Brian Bruney threw an easy inning. He looks absolutely nasty right now, with 7 strikeouts in 3 and 2/3rd innings pitched (while allowing 1 hit, 1 walk, and no runs). Farnsworth walked a batter but otherwise pitched a good 9th inning. The bullpen continues its dominance.<br /><br /><strong>The Offense: </strong>Good job by the offense today. Abreu had 4 RBIs and an excellent at bat against Ponson that resulted in a 2 run home run. A-Rod picked up his 5th home run of the season (the fastest any Yankee has ever hit five). Damon saw his batting average plummet today as he went 2 for 4. Jeter picked up 3 hits as well, and Posada contributed with a two run ground rule double. The bottom of the lineup struggled, however, but when the top scores 8 runs, I think all Yankee fans can live with that.<br /><br /><strong>The Defense: </strong>Much better. Melky got a late jump on a ball that he probably could have caught (which resulted in an RBI double), but the infield defense looked great today. Jeter, Mientkiewicz, and Cano all made excellent plays.<br /><br /><strong>Player of the Game: </strong>Although Abreu's 4 RBIs make a strong case, it really has to go to Carl Pavano. I commented at one point before the game that after the first five games, if Pavano went 6 innings and have up 4 runs, he'd be a hero in New York. He went above and beyond, pitching 7 innings (and really, he could have given more, but Torre is being cautious) and only giving up two runs (and both long after the Yankees had scored plenty of runs). The Twins don't exactly have the best offense all around, but they do have some solid hitters (such as the AL Batting champion and the AL MVP). Pavano shut Morneau down completely. He's the easy choice for player of the game.<br /><br /><strong>Overall Thoughts: </strong>A good game for the Yanks today. The bullpen got some rest, Pavano had a good start, the offense got it done, and A-Rod continued his hot streak. Plus, the strong defense was a nice touch.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5813286264184751967.post-76315000650953476342007-04-07T17:39:00.000-05:002007-04-07T18:06:13.098-05:00Yankees (Igawa) VS Orioles (Trachsel), Game 4Just got back from the game. Too bad for all those people who left early. Guess what? The game isn't over until it's over. I've never left a game early, and today is one of the reasons why.<br /><br /><strong>Game 4 - New York Yankees VS Baltimore Orioles</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>The Starter: </strong>Igawa didn't look good at all (although, on the bright side, he made it a whole 5 innings!). 8 hits and 3 walks (to go along with 7 runs) in only 5 innings is a bad line. That said, while Igawa did get hit pretty hard all night, the big blow was a simple unlucky bloop double that barely fell between Mientkiewicz, Abreu, and Cano. I'm not letting him off the hook, he put the runners on in the first place. But if that gets caught, we're talking about how he had a disappointing start, but at least he outpitched the other three by going 5 innings. Hopefully he'll improve next time out...he simply wasn't throwing strikes.<br /><br /><strong>The Bullpen: </strong>With all the talk about A-Rod's huge hit (and having lost Game 3), what's going to go missing in all this is the fact that in two days, the bullpen has pitched 9 innings and given up a grand total of 2 hits, 2 walks, and zero earned runs (with both hits being singles, by the way). Today, Brian Bruney, Mike Myers, Luis Vizcaino, and Mariano Rivera combined for 4 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, and 5 strikeouts. A-Rod will get much deserved praise for his offensive performance today, but the bullpen is the reason he was even in that position. The Yankees may have lost yesterday, but the only reason that game was even close was because of the bullpen. As awful as the Yankee starters have been this season (and they've been awful), the bullpen has been just as good.<br /><br /><strong>The Offense: </strong>Well, the offense started off not very good again. A-Rod was the only one hitting through the first few innings. But in the last two innings the Yankees finally showed what they were missing the last two days. This time, when they got opportunities, they capitalized on them. Giambi launched the three run home run to make it a one run game, and then with 2 outs and the bases empty, Cano singled, Jeter walked, Abreu got hit by a pitch, and A-Rod came through with the huge walkoff Grand Slam. That's what they were missing in Games 2 and 3. Sure, most of the offense may have been shoved into the final two innings, but it's very hard to argue with 10 runs on the day. The Yankee bats came through when it mattered and that's what really counts.<br /><br /><strong>The Defense: </strong>Nothing really standout either way. The error was on Igawa, after he booted a ball. Not a really big deal, and Mientkiewicz made a great play to simply stop a second error. I haven't watched the game on television yet (since I was at the game), but it looked like Jeter misplayed the throw to second on the bloop "double", which allowed that third runner to cross the plate. It wasn't called an error though. Still nothing amazing, but at least it wasn't as horrific as the first two games.<br /><br /><strong>Player of the Game: </strong>Gee, I wonder who it could be? Alex Rodriguez was 3 for 4 with 2 home runs, 6 RBIs, and a walkoff grand slam. Yeah, it's him. Honorable mention to Jason Giambi for closing the lead from 4 to 1, and also honorable mention to the whole Yankee bullpen. They are the reason why A-Rod and Giambi were given the opportunity to do their thing. The Devil Rays and Orioles aren't exactly the Yankees and Mets in terms of offense, but they've got some very good hitters who were all over every Yankee starter so far. With the exception of Proctor and Vizcaino struggling a bit on Thursday, the bullpen has been completely lights out.<br /><br /><strong>Overall Thoughts: </strong>It was a pretty ugly game early on for the Yankees. From the 6th inning on, it was fantastic, a really fun game. A-Rod really needed that hit, and he came through. Giambi needed a big hit too, and he came through. Igawa struggled, but the bullpen picked him up big time, with Bruney striking out the side, Myers pitching a whole inning, and Vizcaino throwing a perfect inning as well. Mariano, of course, is Mariano. A bloop single was the only blemish on his record. And poor, poor Freddie Bynum. The Orioles threw him to the wolves there, bringing him in in the 8th so that his only at bat is against Mariano Rivera. Ouch. Not surprising, he struck out.<br /><br />Hopefully this game buys A-Rod a little leeway. I know his walkoff last year didn't, but it was right in the middle of multiple poor performances. Let's give the guy a break, huh? He came through huge this time.Kyle Litkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07444986881762426741noreply@blogger.com0