Yankee Legends

The Recent Moves

2012-01-18T20:03:00.004-05:00

Haven't had much to talk about for a while, but a few days ago the Yankees finally broke their offseason silence and made some big moves.

1. Yankees sign Hiroki Kuroda

May as well start with the more "basic" signing first. I love this move. Is Kuroda an ace? No. He is, however, a good pitcher who should give the Yankees 200ish innings with an ERA around 4 or lower. He's got good stuff and isn't simply a product of the NL West; he has good road numbers, complete with a solid strikeout rate and an elite walk rate. The only real question I'd have is with his home runs, which have fluctuated in his four years stateside. He had a high home run rate in 2011; however, it was actually higher on the road than at home, so it may have been a fluke. In any case, good signing, especially since it won't effect the team past this year anyway.

2. Yankees trade Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos

Whew, this was a crazy trade. When I first saw that the Mariners were finalizing a deal for a young impact bat, I immediately wondered if it could be Montero, and sure enough...

My last posts dealt with the idea of trading Montero. While I did mention Pineda as someone I would have considered trading Montero for, I didn't expect it to actually happen, even if it does make some sense for both teams. If the Yankees were going to trade Montero, though, this is the type of player they should have targeted...a young, high upside pitcher who has already pitched very well in the majors (but still has 5 years to go to reach free agency).

First off, what doesn't this mean? You can already see some of the spin that this means such and such for the future of the team, or how the Yankees must have been down on Montero. I do think it's entirely possible (especially given how September went) that the Yankees were more down on Montero the catcher than they were willing to let on. However, I think that's about the only thing it says. A lot of people have declared this means the Yankees didn't want a DH because A-Rod's going to be moved there in the next couple of years. However, that assumes the Yankees had no intention of ever keeping Montero, and I don't buy that for a second. There was never any indication they were interested in including him for any other pitchers traded...in fact, I think Pineda may have been one of the only possible pitchers he could have been traded for. Felix is unavailable and so is nearly every other ace or #2 type starter that it would have been reasonable to trade Montero for. If the Mariners had (very realistically) decided not to trade Pineda, I firmly believe Jesus Montero would be a Yankee next season and going forward. This trade was made because Pineda became available, not because the Yankees were trying to get rid of Montero.

Could this mean more DH time in the future for Alex Rodriguez? Absolutely. There's no immediate candidate to replace Montero at DH, now or in the future (more on that in another post in the next few days). However, does this mean they made the trade because they're expecting A-Rod to DH a ton soon? No, I don't believe that. The reasoning I brought up a couple months ago still stands.

So, what do I think about the trade? I'm not entirely sure. I'm tentatively in favor of it. I was a huge fan of Montero and didn't want him traded except for very specific circumstances...this was potentially one of them. If Montero is going to be a full time DH, that's less valuable than catching full time. Still valuable, but less so. Meanwhile, this gives the Yankees a #2 starter that is under team control for the next 5 years, who has a chance to become an ace. The possibility of getting Cole Hamels next year hasn't been eliminated either, although it seems less likely now. Imagine a top 3 of Sabathia/Hamels/Pineda? That's an insane top three that would make the Yankees the immediate favorites in any postseason series they're in. Of course, if the Yankees are serious about getting payroll under 189 million by 2014, then Hamels is almost certainly not possible. Regardless, this gives the Yankees more options. I hate to see Montero go, but if you're going to move him, this is the deal to do it in.

The "throw ins" are interesting as well. In the short term they clearly favor the Mariners, as Noesi is ready to contribute right now and Campos is years away. However, Campos actually has upside, with most saying he would have been a clear first round pick had he entered the draft this year. This is an interesting addition for the Yankees, brought on, I suspect, by the new CBA. The new CBA could significantly hurt the Yankees in terms of their farm system. They will have much less money that they can spend in the draft without sacrificing first round draft picks, and they're going to be extremely limited in how much they can spend on international free agents. In addition, because they're the Yankees, the team is always contending and rarely is able to trade players to rebuild their farm; the players they trade are usually younger guys traded away to help the major league team. This gives the Yankees a prospect that will fit into their top 10 (likely somewhere in the middle...5-7 or so). Noesi is a nice back end of the rotation/long reliever type, but he's an interchangeable part on this Yankee team. One out of Hughes/Garcia/Burnett seems certain to take the long relief role (I'll cover the 5th starter situation in another post soon), so Noesi was probably headed back to the minors anyway.

Finally, Pineda. I think there are a few legitimate concerns about him, and a few concerns that aren't fair. I've seen a few people bring up the fact that he has had elbow issues in the past. In 2009, he missed a good amount of the season with elbow soreness. However, from what I understand, it was at least somewhat precautionary. Elbow issues of any kind are a bad thing with pitchers, but the fact is he had elbow soreness 2 years and many innings ago and as far as I'm aware has never had the issue again. Besides, it was soreness, not elbow surgery. I'm not too concerned there.

The second concern I've seen raised is the home run rate. First off, let's be clear on this: Pineda is going to give up some home runs. He's a fly ball pitcher and Yankee Stadium has the short porch. That said, I think some of the concern is over the top. One of the reasons Yankee Stadium allows so many home runs is that the Yankees themselves are the best home run hitting team in baseball. That's somewhat of a "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?" argument, but it does have to factor in. Meanwhile, the Mariners are the second worst home run hitting team in the American League (and if Morneau had played a full year, they probably would be worse than the Twins). Again, part of this is due to their park, but the team itself simply has no power. That's only a small part of it though; of course it's easier to hit a home run in Yankee Stadium than it is at Safeco. Pineda, though, oddly enough, had a better home run rate on the road than he did at home. Whether this suggests he got a little lucky on the road or whether it suggests he got a little unlucky at home, I don't know. His minor league home run rate was actually quite good. I suspect the end result for Pineda is going to be a home run rate about what he did last year, or slightly higher. Last year his home run rate was 0.9 per 9 innings, I expect something close to that, perhaps as high as 1 per 9. I don't think he's going to skyrocket up to 1.2 per 9 like some seem to think. Time will tell there, but I'm not too concerned about the home run rate.

The final main complaint is about Pineda's poor second half. It's true that Pineda's second half was worse than his first, in terms of ERA. Some of his other numbers were not that different, though. His K/9 and BB/9 were close to the same, which suggests he may have just gotten unlucky. Also, Pineda went through three terrible starts in a row in mid July...if you take those out, his second half ERA was, I believe, under 4.00, and his overall ERA is closer to 3.00 than 4.00. The reason I mention that is we don't really know why he got knocked around in those three starts. If he just got knocked around for no particular reason, then yes, that's something we may have to see every year. If, however, Pineda had a mechanical issue he needed to work out or a minor injury he didn't disclose, it's not fair to expect starts like that every year. I'd also point out that toward the end of the year, the Mariners were attempting to limit Pineda's innings. He was skipped at least twice, pushed back a day here or there, and taken out after 90 pitches multiple times (even when pitching well). His final start came on 11 days rest and lasted 80 pitches. It's tough to take a lot out of that, when so many pitchers thrive with consistency.

What does Pineda do right? He has a fantastic strikeout rate. Even if it goes down slightly in the AL East (no guarantee, the hitters are certainly better but it doesn't necessarily mean they strike out less), it's still an elite strikeout rate. What is perhaps even more interesting is the excellent walk rate. That's great to see from such a young pitcher with such good stuff.

If Pineda can stay healthy, he should be a strong pitcher for the Yankees for many years. I think Montero is going to be a very good hitter, and it hurts to lose him, but the Yankees have greatly improved their rotation without having to give out an enormous long term contract. Now, they have the option to try to get payroll down or to hand out that big contract to make a "super rotation" comparable to the Phillies. This trade is going to take awhile to fairly judge, though.

Should Montero Be Traded?

2011-10-10T17:21:00.004-05:00

Yesterday I pointed out how silly the claim of "The Yankees can't keep Montero if he's a DH!" is, and why it would be stupid to trade him for "anything they can get" as some have suggested. However, there's another question...should Montero be traded? A lot of people have this assumption that ace pitchers are always available at all times, but is that actually true? I went through all the teams and pinpointed players I'd even be willing to trade Montero for. Rule #1: If they're going to be a free agent, they obviously don't count. Rule #2: If they have only one year left on their contract, I'm not interested. Montero has too much potential for too little money to justify trading him for a one year rental at this point. While you can make a case for a top, top pitcher (ala Cliff Lee), there aren't any guys of that caliber with one year remaining.

Over in the NL West, the Rockies have nobody I'd be at all interested in. The Diamondbacks only have Ian Kennedy, and he's not worth Montero at this point, even if he did have a great year. The Padres pitchers always scare me because of the Petco factor, and the only guy that even particularly interests me there is Latos, and I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Over on the Giants, there are two pitchers of interest, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Matt Cain is out for me...while I like him, I think he's more of a #2/#3 type pitcher, and he's only signed through 2012. I wouldn't be against trading for him, but not at the cost of Montero. Lincecum could be a different story, he's an ace. His walk rate is a little high but otherwise he'd probably be a top of the rotation guy anywhere. He's under contract for two more seasons. I can't imagine the Giants would ever do it but I'd probably go for that one. With Posey and Belt around and no DH though, it doesn't make much sense for them. The Dodgers have one pitcher I'd jump on, Clayton Kershaw. I'd make that trade in a second, but the Dodgers have even less reason to do that than the Giants. Kershaw is only just becoming eligible for arbitration; he'll be a bargain for years to come. So, from the NL West, we have Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, and neither figures to be at all available.

Over in the NL Central, I don't think there's a single player I'd trade Montero for. Wainwright is coming off an injury, Carpenter is getting old and isn't as dominant (Game 5 of the NLDS aside). The Reds, Astros, and Pirates don't have anyone I'd be particularly interested in. I'd be a bit interested in Garza from the Cubs but certainly wouldn't trade Montero for him. That leaves the Brewers, but Marcum isn't worth Montero, and Greinke has concerns about pitching in New York and would be a free agent after 2012 anyway. That leaves only Gallardo, who is a bit more interesting as he's under contract through 2014, but he allows too many home runs and I just wouldn't trust him enough. So, nobody from the NL Central.

Over in the NL East, the Mets have nobody of interest. The Marlins and Braves both have an interesting pitcher, but they're coming off serious injuries to their arms/shoulders that would immediately stop me in my tracks. Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson could both be aces or definitive #2 starters, but there is no way I'd trade Montero for either under the current circumstances, not until we know they're healthy. Those types of injuries are huge question marks. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, and I'm back and forth on him. On the one hand, he's also coming off a major injury; however, he's actually returned and pitched some, and looked good doing it. He doesn't seem to have lost a step. The question is, are there more injuries in his future? I think I would reluctantly do it; the Nationals never would. The Phillies have three interesting pitchers, but Hamels only has one year remaining, so I wouldn't do that trade. Lee and Halladay I would, but they obviously wouldn't be available. So, from the NL West, you have Lee, Halladay, and Strasburg, and none of them would be available. Seeing a pattern? From the entire NL, not one pitcher worth trading Montero for figures to be available, and I don't mean that we're guessing they probably aren't available, I mean it makes no logical sense at all that they would be.

Moving to the American League, let's start with the AL East. First off, it bears mentioning that it'd be extremely difficult to make any kind of a trade in division. The Red Sox have Lester, but obviously would never make a deal with the Yankees for players of that caliber. The Orioles have nobody interesting. The Rays have a lot of interesting pitchers, however. Price and Moore are both of great interest, although it's extremely doubtful either would be at all available, and certainly not to the Yankees. The realistic guy there is James Shields. I could definitely see James Shields getting traded. The question is, is he worth trading Montero for? My gut is no. If you knew you were getting the James Shields of this year, then of course, but James Shields prior to this year was solid to bad every other year. Before this year you'd never consider trading Montero for him, and I'm not sure anything has really changed right now. Not that the Rays would be at all likely to trade Shields and his three remaining years in division. As for the Blue Jays, the only pitcher of any interest is Ricky Romero, who has a shockingly great contract for the Blue Jays (he's signed cheap through 2015 with a relatively cheap 2016 option). I'm not the biggest Romero fan around but based solely on how good that contract is and how effective he has been in the AL East, you'd have to at least consider it. So for the AL East, you have Lester, Price, Moore, and perhaps Romero, but none of them would figure to be available, and certainly not to the Yankees.

Over in the AL Central, there is essentially one and only one pitcher that jumps out at me, and that's Justin Verlander. The Twins, Indians, Royals, and White Sox don't have anyone that interests me enough to trade Montero. Naturally, especially after the year Verlander had, I'd trade Montero for him, but of course the Tigers wouldn't.

Finally, the AL West. The Rangers have nobody interesting. CJ Wilson is a free agent and nobody else interests me enough to consider trading Montero for them. The A's have a couple interesting players and people have been linking the Yankees to Gio Gonzalez as recently as the trade deadline, but it's not a trade I'd make. The Angels have Weaver, who I might have been interested in, but his desire to stay on the West coast makes that a no go. I like Haren quite a bit and wanted the Yankees to get him last year, but at this point I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Finally, the Mariners. I might do it for Pineda, but the Mariners wouldn't go for that.

Which finally, leaves us with perhaps the only realistic option. Every single player I've said I would trade Montero for is almost certain to not be traded. The guys who could be traded only have one year left on their contracts, or simply aren't good enough (or have too many injuries in recent years) to justify it. However, the one player who could perhaps get traded, the one ace who doesn't play for a team with realistic expectations of contention, who has a large contract the team could want to move, is Felix Hernandez.

There are a few problems with Felix. For starters, he didn't look like his recent self this season. He looked more like the Felix of 2006-2008, who was very good but not really one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his strikeout rate was the best of his career and his walk rate remained low; this could just be a fluke. Also, with three years remaining on his contract, if the Mariners would even entertain offers for him (and it's a big if, albeit realistic unlike many of the other aces in baseball), it would certainly cost more than Montero. Montero would likely have to be included in any offer, since the Mariners badly need offense, but they'd want more. Montero and Nova is a realistic start to the offer, with probably one additional player (likely not Banuelos, as that would probably be too high of a price, but Hughes/Betances would be possibilities). I actually don't think I'd do a deal of Montero/Nova/Hughes for Felix. It would create too many holes on the major league team, and if the Yankees took on Felix' salary (18.5 million in 2012), they'd be right up against the payroll limit Hal and Hank seemingly set last year. While they could probably be convinced to go a little higher, you're not going to fill those multiple empty spots. Everyone is down on Hughes, but he at least fills a starting pitching role on the team; trading him plus Nova opens up two holes while only filling one, in what is a terrible free agent market for pitchers (and that's assuming CC resigns with the Yankees), in addition to opening up a hole at the DH position. Betances and Banuelos have a lot of potential but simply aren't ready. I would, however, probably do a deal that included Montero, one of the starters, and Betances or a lesser prospect. Betances has a world of potential but has to get his walks under control, and it's possible he never does that. I'd hate to do that deal since I don't want to see Montero traded, but realistically you have to give up something of worth.

All that said, in all of Major League Baseball, looking at every single team, I found one single pitcher who I would trade Montero for this offseason that has any shot of realistically being available, and even that's guessing with him; there's no real reason why the Mariners couldn't simply wait til the trade deadline, or really, wait until the trade deadline of the 2014 season to trade him. If he keeps pitching well his value isn't going to go down, and they don't figure to contend next year no matter what they trade Felix for. You could even make the argument they'd be better off waiting and trading him for younger players under team control longer, once they feel they're within a few years on contention. Perhaps they feel that way now, and if so, they could make the trade, but if they don't, I'd keep Montero. The options aren't that good and I'm not at all interested in trading away the best hitting prospect the Yankees have had in a very long time, who killed the ball in September, for a one year wonder or back end starting pitcher.

The Myth of the DH

2011-10-09T18:21:00.004-05:00

Lately, I've seen a lot of people calling for Montero to be traded, and not just for an ace pitcher; for whatever the Yankees can get. The argument generally boils down to 2 points:

1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.

2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.

First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.

The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.

A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope).

Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open now because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all.

So when people say Montero needs to be traded because the DH spot needs to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through.

A better question is should Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).

Potential Starters for 2012

2011-10-07T18:21:00.003-05:00

So, we've established now that overall, the Yankees can pretty easily fill 23 of the 25 spots on their roster for 2012 (again, assuming no injuries or trades, which are both possibilities but are tough to predict right now). But that starting pitching looks really suspect right now, with Nova the only one that's even close to a sure thing, and we're really working off a small sample size of half a season, his first half wasn't too good. Obviously, the one name that jumps out is CC Sabathia. He has the ability to opt out and most feel that he will, especially with the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market. While he didn't look quite as good in September and October, resigning CC is a must. There simply aren't other options for aces right now, and even if the Yankees were to pull off a huge trade, you'd only be replacing him (and losing top prospects to do it). Besides, let's be honest...while he was far from sharp in Game 3, he was getting squeezed pretty badly on that outside corner to right handed hitters. That game might have gone very differently if he wasn't. Let's work under the assumption that the Yankees do bring Sabathia back...he seems to love it in New York and the Yankees really do need him back. That leaves one empty pitching spot on the roster (at least, as Hughes or even Burnett could end up bumped from the rotation...but I think that's unlikely at this point).

To be honest, if you're looking at the free agent market and want a pitcher who can pitch toward the top of the rotation, rather than a 4 or 5 starter at best, there's only a single guy who would likely be worth it, and that's CJ Wilson. There are a couple decent options such as Roy Oswalt, but he's getting older, has pitched his whole career in the NL, and has an option for 2012. Hiroki Kuroda is also a free agent but seems to prefer to stay on the West Coast. That leaves CJ Wilson and a whole lot of meh. I've gone back and forth on CJ Wilson, personally. Prior to this season I wanted no part of him, but he had a really good year. Here are the pros and cons on him.

Pros:
- Has thrown 200 innings the last two seasons (was a reliever before that)
- Strong strikeout rate
- Pitches in the AL in a hitters ballpark, so there's reason to think he could succeed anywhere
- Left handed pitcher, always a plus at Yankee Stadium
- Doesn't allow a lot of hits, while this can always change based on luck, it's good to see a consistently low hits per 9 rate.
- Limits home runs despite being in a hitters ballpark

Cons:
- Very high walk rate. 3.0 per 9 (his walk rate for 2011) is workable, but before that he was around 4.0 per 9 or more, and that's just too many, especially pitching in the AL West for the one above average offensive team in the division. His walk rate could go even higher in the AL East.
- Went from being a reliever to suddenly throwing 200 IP two years in a row, including 223 this season. He didn't seem to have a problem this year, so it may not matter, but anytime you see that innings jump there are going to be at least questions about arm troubles.
- Is more of a #2 starter who could be paid ace money, due to being the only good free agent pitcher on the market if Sabathia stays with the Yankees, and due to currently being on Texas, who has money to spend as evidenced by their pursuit of Cliff Lee.

If the Yankees were to sign CJ Wilson (and resign CC Sabathia), I think I'd be okay with it, but I wouldn't have a problem with it if they didn't. The walks are the big concern for me. Did we see Wilson figure it out this season? Or was it a fluke and he'll be back to walking 4 per 9 again? Also, I know people like to just say "Yankees have money, who cares", but these things do matter. There are limits on payroll as we've seen recently. The Yankees are losing Jorge Posada and should be able to replace him with the league minimum Jesus Montero, but that's about all they're losing right now, and they do have to be wary of the fact that after 2013, Robinson Cano might have to be resigned to an enormous, superstar level contract. In addition, Felix Hernandez always looms as a possibility, and his 20 million a year salary likely wouldn't be possible if CJ Wilson were signed.

Speaking of Felix, he seems to be the only ace type pitcher who even might be available via trade this offseason (which isn't to say he even will be available). The Yankees could probably put together a good package for him, especially since Montero looked so good in September. However, any trade for Felix would create other holes, such as at DH, that would need to be filled, with little money to do it.

If Wilson returns to the Rangers, that leaves the Yankees in a tough situation. In that case, they might be best served doing what they did this year...signing a pair of back end starters to take a chance on (ala Garcia and Colon) and having Betances and Banuelos ready should they develop the way we hope they do. Neither guy is ready to make the team out of Spring Training, but both could be ready soon after. This would enable the Yankees to get by for another year and go after Cole Hamels after the 2012 season, or to hope the kids develop to an extent that they can full all the necessary roles in the rotation. It's also possible the Yankees could make a more minor trade without using Montero, to try to get someone like Matt Garza or Matt Cain.

One wild card in the whole thing is Yu Darvish, who is expected to be posted this offseason by Japan. His stuff is off the charts, but there are of course potential problems there. For starters, he'd cost a lot of money since any team would have to pay the posting fee as well as signing him to a contract. Second, while I'm not of the "Japanese pitchers all suck!" mindset that a lot of people seem to have, I do think Japan is different from the US, and it'd really be preferable for any Japanese pitcher coming to the US to spend some time in the minor leagues, to adapt to pitching every 5 days instead of every 6, to learn to face hitters who are more likely to take a walk or hit for power. The problem is, with so much money invested in these players via the posting fee, there's a lot of pressure on the team that gets them to have them in the rotation immediately. I could see Yu Darvish doing that; Daisuke Matsuzaka is the general go to for "great stuff but struggled in the US", but I like Darvish better. Look him up on YouTube to see him pitch; it's pretty impressive. Darvish is very much a difficult guy to predict, though, because there's no guarantee the Yankees would even win the rights to him (a place where offering the biggest contract doesn't work), and even if they do, he could be anything from an ace to a guy with great stuff that can't quite adapt. It'd certainly be a risky move.

One other name that should be mentioned, since he could become a trade target this offseason, is James Shields. While I certainly wouldn't mind having him, I imagine the Yankees would have to greatly overpay, beyond everyone else, considering the Rays are a constantly contending team and wouldn't want to trade him to one of their two main competitors.

It's very difficult to predict at this point what the Yankees will do in terms of starting pitching. Resigning Sabathia is an obvious move, but beyond that, they have a number of things they could do with that last rotation spot.

The Offseason Begins

2011-10-07T17:35:00.003-05:00

Last night was a tough loss for the Yankees, and with it, the speculation begins as to what the Yankees will do to prepare for the 2012 season.

For starters, let's look at the guys, minus a trade or an injury, who will be guaranteed to be on the roster to start next season.

1. Derek Jeter
2. Robinson Cano (technically has to have his option picked up, an obvious no brainer)
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Brett Gardner
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. AJ Burnett
9. Phil Hughes
10. Ivan Nova
11. Mariano Rivera
12. David Robertson
13. Boone Logan
14. Rafael Soriano (unless he opts out, which would be a surprise)
15. Cory Wade

In addition to those guys, we have Martin. I would assume he'll be kept by the Yankees. While they only signed him to a one year deal, Martin is not eligible for free agency until after 2012, as he was previously nontendered by the Dodgers. I imagine he stays with the Yankees, but I put him seperately just in case.

16. Russell Martin

You also have Nick Swisher, who has a relatively cheap option. A few people are completely overreacting to a few small sample size games in October. Swisher had a rough start to the year but picked it up quite a bit after that. Especially considering the lack of good free agent outfielders aside from Carlos Beltran, this seems like an obvious move.

17. Nick Swisher

Jorge Posada is almost certainly gone now, after a great and underrated career with the Yankees. Assuming that is the case, it also seems obvious Jesus Montero will take his spot on the roster (again, barring a trade) as the full time DH and perhaps occasional catcher in an emergency.

18. Jesus Montero

I left Francisco Cervelli off the definites only as a "just in case", since he hasn't exactly been amazing, but he has been the backup catcher, Austin Romine isn't ready, and I find it unlikely they'd make Jesus Montero the backup catcher and still have him DH every day.

19. Francisco Cervelli

That leaves only 6 open roster spots...the starting nine is essentially already filled, assuming Martin and Swisher return and Montero is the DH. The backup infield spot and backup catcher are filled as well. That leaves two bench players (one backup outfielder, one other), two bullpen spots, and two starting pitching spots. There aren't nearly as many open spots as people may think. The bullpen spots could be filled by virtually anyone...Joba may fill one shortly after the season starts if he's healthy by then, the Yankees could sign a long man who could also start in case of injuries, they could try signing another lefty again (assuming Feliciano can't pitch), or they could just call someone up from the minors. The core of the bullpen remains intact. As for bench spots, I'd try hard to resign Jones, he can play left field adequately and he can hit lefties really well. For the last bench spot, I'd look for someone who can play third and hit a little bit, ideally.

I'll cover the starting pitcher spots in another post.

The moves so far...

2008-12-16T01:54:00.003-05:00

May as well update this thing from time to time.

My thoughts on the moves so far:

1. Sabathia: Great! Couldn't be happier about it. Are there some potential concerns, sure, he did have a ridiculous amount of innings the past two years. On the other hand CC has yet to show he can't handle it. I don't like the "poor postseason numbers" argument. It's a small sample size. 2007 could have been a case of "He's thrown way more innings than ever before and it's catching up". In 2008 he threw even more, and he was working on 3 days rest for something like 4 starts in a row. If it was pressure getting to him, why was he pitching well for the Brewers down the stretch in a tight pennant race? I think CC will be fine.

2. AJ Burnett: I've gone back and forth on Burnett since the season ended, but I'm currently in the pro Burnett corner. I wish it could have been for 4 years rather than 5, but otherwise I think the potential upside here trumps anything else. Does he miss starts most years? Yes, although I tend to think this has been overblown. He's still got excellent stuff. Also, I've seen people point out that, okay, maybe he misses a few starts during the season, but the possibility of his stuff (and his apparent ability to pitch well in big games, albeit never in the postseason...we're pretty much talking about his strong performances against the Yankees and Boston I think) in the playoffs could make up for that. The deal could work out great, it could be terrible, but I think given the choices, this was probably the best move.

3. Nick Swisher: I like this move, quite a bit actually. I think last year was more flukeish than anything. Swisher had some bad luck, for starters. He also wasn't comfortable leading off or playing centerfield. He also has stated that he felt he wasn't adjusted to playing for a new team, and claims he learned a lot last year.

From a pure statistical perspective, I expect Swisher to improve which means we'll get a solid OBP and solid power at first base with some solid defense as well. But one thing I like that I normally wouldn't care about is that Swisher seems really enthusiastic to be here. Maybe it's just his natural personality, but reading posts he has made on his website or hearing him in an interview, he doesn't sound like someone who is *cue robot voice* 'glad he is a Yankee and looking forward to the opportunity to win'. He sounds genuinely excited about being a Yankee. I'm looking forward to seeing Swisher in action.

4. Damaso Marte: Resigned him for 3 years. I'm alright with it, although this is another move I've flipped on. I did want Marte back this season so I don't think I would have just offered arbitration and let him go elsewhere, but I thought picking up his option for one year (albeit at a slightly higher salary for 2009) and taking the picks at the end of the season would have been a better option. I still think that might be the case, but I have no problem with Marte returning. Marte got lit up by Texas early in August, and then struggled a bit with the Angels and Twins later that month, which soured a lot of people on him, but he was very good from that point on. While the kids in the bullpen showed a lot last season, having one veteran that might actually be able to get the job done in a setup role is nice.

I think that's essentially it for moves (unless I'm forgetting one).

As far as other rumored moves:

I'd definitely trade Melky for Cameron. Melky is what he is at this point, and I think last years Melky is probably more like the real Melky. I also like Gardner, but I'm not sold on whether he'll be able to man CF full time. I like him better as the 4th outfielder. Cameron's problem is he costs 10 million for the one season, but I think it's a move that the Yankees should consider making. If Gardner/Melky are ineffective in center again, the team is one injury to a Posada/Matsui/Damon/A-Rod/etc. away from being crippled. Cameron gives you some insurance.

Teixeira: I just don't see this happening. Do I like Teixeira, yes. Signing him gives you a great hitter at first base for a long time (although he could of course decline). Then you can move Swisher to right field and either trade Nady or make him your fourth outfielder. The issue that a lot of people are failing to understand when arguing that the Yankees shouldn't trade for Cameron because they can use that 10 million toward Teixeira is that there's a lot more to it than just this year. If Teixeira approached the Yankees right now and said "Okay, I'll take a one year deal for 23 million, let's do that!" I have no doubt the Yankees would have him signed tomorrow. But tying up 70-75 million in 3 players for 7 years is not a good idea no matter how good they are. There's no flexibility there.

Manny: I really don't know. The Yankees could use another hitter, but is Manny really the answer? He's a great hitter, no question. But you have to trade someone to make room. If it's Nady, fine, but who plays right, Damon or Manny? Not sure either is ideal, that's a lot of ground for Manny to cover and that's a lot of guys going first to third on Damon's arm. So you can move Damon, your leadoff hitter, or you can move Matsui, who probably can't play the field full time and so would have to be traded to an AL team with an opening at DH that believes they can contend this year and has 13 million to spend. Oh, and Matsui has to agree to it. Doesn't seem too likely to me. Plus Manny's a headcase. And how well will he and Girardi really get along? Seems like a big personality clash waiting to happen there.

5th rotation spot: Ideally, just give it to Pettitte and call it a day. There seems to be concerns over Sheets medical records (not surprisingly) and while I was interested in him before Burnett signed, I'm less thrilled with the idea of two guys with injury question marks like that. I also don't like the idea of Lowe in that spot, I'd rather not give him a 4 year contract and it would essentially tie up all rotation spots for the next 4 years leaving no room for someone like Hughes.

Offseason!

2008-10-03T02:32:00.002-05:00

Yay offseason!

Okay, not so much. Obviously the Yankees did not get it done this year, but we knew inevitably this would happen sooner or later. There were a lot of factors that fed into this...the Rays taking off this year rather than next year or in 2010 was one thing, the Yanks would have theoretically won the Wild Card if the Rays had won 88 games or less (which still would have been very impressive). Losing Wang for the year and Joba as a starter for the last two months were both huge, huge losses. Losing Posada's bat hurt as well, although Molina did a great job defensively and perhaps helped the pitching staff. Plus it didn't help that overall Cano pretty much sucked and Melky got really bad really fast. Other teams got hurt too, no excuses, but Wang and Posada missed most of the season rather than just a month or two, and their replacements were getting hurt as well. It makes things difficult. There were problems with the team anyway, but they shouldn't have been as inconsistent as they ended up being, and I suspect that if Wang, Posada, and Joba had stayed healthy, the Yankees might still be playing.

Or hey, maybe not. That's baseball.

So what do we have for next year?

I'd say the following players are sure things short of a trade (and I'm not gonna assume one at the moment):

1. Derek Jeter (Shortstop)
2. Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)
3. Johnny Damon (Left Field)
4. Hideki Matsui (DH)
5. Robinson Cano (Second Base)
6. Jorge Posada (Catcher)
7. Jose Molina (Backup Catcher)
8. Xavier Nady (Right Field probably)
9. Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder...I don't think he's a free agent yet)
10. Chien Ming Wang (Starter)
11. Joba Chamberlain (Starter)
12. Mariano Rivera (Closer)

And that's pretty much it. Those are the guys who, short of a trade, are guaranteed spots. I put Joba as a starter based on Cashman saying the plan now is for him to start all season, obviously that could change. I'm also not positive on Betemit's status, but I think he's signed through 2009. There's also some question on Posada, but for now I'm assuming he's a catcher.

That leaves a lot of work. Center field, first base, backup outfielder, additional bench player, three more starters, and probably 6 more guys in the bullpen. Obviously some will be filled with guys on the team. Phil Coke certainly looks likely to fill a bullpen spot, if he doesn't get turned into a starter. Brian Bruney also looked great and is a pretty good assumption for a bullpen spot. So let's add those two.

13. Phil Coke (Reliever)
14. Brian Bruney (Reliever)

Here's where we start venturing away from "Here are the sure things" into "What would you do?".

I think Brett Gardner is a good bet for some spot on this team. He's either going to be the starting centerfielder or the backup outfielder I suspect, depending on whether the Yankees sign a free agent centerfielder. Personally, I'd pass and give Gardner a shot. Risky, yes, because if he hits like he did when he first got called up, that's a huge hole that will do a lot of damage to the lineup. But if he can hit even halfway decent, his speed and strong defense will allow him to fill the centerfield and 9th in the order spots at least until Austin Jackson is ready. For me, I'm going to fill him into my starting centerfielder spot.

15. Brett Gardner (Centerfield)

The fourth outfielder should probably be either Melky or Christian. I've soured on Melky at this point, and I think it might be better to go with Christian, who can be used as a pinch runner as well.

16. Justin Christian (Backup Outfielder)

Let's see, back to that bullpen. Four more spots to fill, and no easy choices. Sanchez and Melancon both interest me, but they might not be ready. There's also Marte to consider, who has an option that may get picked up. He struggled in August but looked good in September. If Sanchez or Melancon seem ready, I'd let him walk and take the draft pick...if they're not, the Yanks might need him. Veras struggled toward the end of the year, but he was overall solid, and while he may not be a closer or even setup man, I think he can be a useful reliever. Edwar is more difficult, because he got REALLY terrible in August and September. Robertson didn't look fantastic but he did have a good strikeout rate; I'd give him another shot. A long man might be nice as well, but it could depend on who makes the team as a starter. I'll give it to Dan Giese for now because he did look solid enough and I think the potential starting rotation guys that don't make the team may be better served starting in AAA until they're needed.

17. Jose Veras (Reliever)
18. David Robertson (Reliever)
19. Damaso Marte (Reliever)
20. Dan Giese (Long Reliever)

That leaves us with three starters, a first baseman, and then the last bench guy. Start with an easy one, how about first base? Well, he may not want to come, but I throw money at Mark Teixeira. He's young enough, he's very good defensively, he's a good hitter as well.

21. Mark Teixeira (First Base)

How about those three starters? Again, one is an easy choice if he's willing to come here, and that's CC Sabathia. He gives the Yanks the ace they need, and costs only draft picks. I'm a bit concerned about overuse (over 250 innings pre playoffs? Yikes), but I'd still throw the money at him. That gives you CC as your number 1, Wang as your number 2. I'm making Joba the number 5 for these purposes due to his likely innings restrictions...he'll probably need to serve as the 5th starter to keep the innings down. So the Yanks still need a 3rd and 4th. First off, I'd like Mussina to return. I'm not so sure he will, however. If he agrees to then I absolutely resign him and plug him into the rotation. If he doesn't I suppose Andy Pettitte can replace him, but I'm somewhat concerned about Pettitte right now. For the other spot, you can use one of the kids (Aceves, Hughes), but you can argue relying on the kids without a real backup plan is what hurt the Yankees this year. Also Hughes might be best served by spending a little time in AAA. I'd like to sign an innings eater...perhaps Lowe or Garland. There's also a possibility that both Pettitte and Moose return, but I'd personally rather avoid Andy unless Mussina retires. I wouldn't want to sign both Lowe and Garland though, there's not much of a need for the Yankees to sign two middle rotation guys to "long term" contracts (by that I mean longer than the one or maybe two years Pettitte would probably want). Also, AJ Burnett has the most upside of any of these guys except CC, but may also cost more money/more years than is ideal, and the injury risk is there.

22. CC Sabathia (Starter)
23. Mike Mussina (Starter)
24. Derek Lowe (Starter)

And that last bench spot can go to anyone, it doesn't really matter at this point. Preferably a slugger of some kind, but I'm not sure who offhand.

This would give the Yanks a 2009 team of:

1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
4. Mark Teixeira (1B)
5. Xavier Nady (RF)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Jorge Posada (C)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Brett Gardner (LF)

Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien Ming Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Derek Lowe
5. Joba Chamberlain

Bullpen:

1. Mariano Rivera
2. Damaso Marte
3. Brian Bruney
4. Phil Coke
5. Jose Veras
6. David Robertson
7. Dan Giese

Bench:

1. Wilson Betemit
2. Justin Christian
3. Jose Molina
4. ?

Not too bad. The lineup isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the past, but it's potentially very solid and would help the improved starting rotation and (hopefully) improved bullpen.

Game #1 coming soon

2008-03-31T00:48:00.002-05:00

Game #1 is in roughly 11 hours now. The final roster is set, and as it turns out, Rasner didn't make it after all, despite Girardi saying he wanted a long man. Instead both Ohlendorf and Bruney made it, while Albaladejo also made the team (although he'll likely be replaced as soon as Pettitte is ready). Patterson did not and was apparently never in the running, although he certainly thought he was. Girardi did imply that there would be a long man at some point, likely when the bullpen appears to be getting worn out, so it's possible we'll still see Rasner soon.

I found my overall predictions, so here they are based on not much more than gut instincts (I'm a stat guy in many ways, but I just don't have any real interest in forming some projection system to mathematically determine likely numbers...more power to those that do though, I enjoy seeing them). Obviously, these numbers aren't going to pan out, because guys will get hurt, guys will be ineffective, guys will get called up. But I don't predict for injuries or anything, so these are theoretical predictions if the 25 man roster as it stands right now (plus Pettitte and minus Albaladejo) plays the entire season intact. It won't, but I'm not predicting for that.

I'm also not entirely happy with some of them because I originally did it with the idea that Duncan and Betemit would split time at first. I altered my original predictions a bit to account for more playing time for Giambi, a lot less for Betemit, and probably a decent amount less for Duncan (especially since I also had to add Ensberg) but I didn't want to rework the whole thing, so they're not perfect. I also stuck Phil at 160 IP, no idea what his limit is.

Alex Rodriguez: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs
Bobby Abreu: .291/.398/.470, 19 Home Runs, 103 RBIs, 23 SBs
Hideki Matsui: .288/.370/.482, 23 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 3 SBs
Jorge Posada: .280/.384/.483, 21 Home Runs, 86 RBIs, 1 SB
Robinson Cano: .317/.362/.491, 18 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 5 SBs
Derek Jeter: .312/.380/.454, 14 Home Runs, 82 RBIs, 19 SBs
Jason Giambi: .252/.392/.502, 32 Home Runs, 91 RBIs, 0 SBs
Johnny Damon: .275/.358/.435, 14 Home Runs, 64 RBIs, 21 SBs
Melky Cabrera: .284/.341/.414, 11 Home Runs, 65 RBIs, 11 SBs
Shelley Duncan: .243/.320/.488, 11 Home Runs, 40 RBIs, 1 SB
Wilson Betemit: .249/.338/.451, 8 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 2 SBs
Jose Molina: .242/.281/.341, 2 Home Runs, 21 RBIs, 0 SBs
Morgan Ensberg: .250/.354/.445, 7 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 1 SB

Chien Ming Wang: 19-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 118 Ks, 211 IP
Andy Pettitte: 17-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 137 Ks, 210 IP
Phil Hughes: 12-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 142 Ks, 160 IP
Ian Kennedy: 12-8, 4.12 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 139 Ks, 165 IP
Mike Mussina: 11-9, 4.68 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 85 Ks, 130 IP
Joba Chamberlain: 9-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 145 Ks, 142 IP
Mariano Rivera: 3-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 70 Ks, 72 IP, 34 Saves
Kyle Farnsworth: 2-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 60 Ks, 61 IP
LaTroy Hawkins: 3-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 32 Ks, 58 IP
Ross Ohlendorf: 4-4, 4.15 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 55 Ks, 65 IP
Brian Bruney: 2-5, 4.40 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 70 Ks, 66 IP
Billy Traber: 1-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 22 Ks, 35 IP

Traber's numbers are also partly based on the idea that he'd be primarily a guy who faces lefties. If he gets into facing righties often I'd expect more innings but a higher ERA and WHIP.

Opening Day Nearing...

2008-03-27T14:59:00.002-05:00

So as you can see I stopped doing the predictions, because frankly I've been too busy. I may still have them written down somewhere and if I do, I'll post them without any real explanation just for the heck of it.

The season starts Monday for the Yankees, and the roster is close to being finalized. I surprisingly (to me) wasn't that far off, although it isn't set yet. I had Nick Green rather than Morgan Ensberg, but the original post went up before Ensberg was even a possibility. And it looks like Rasner will make the roster, while Patterson has really opened some eyes and could get that last spot.

Looks to me like we have 24 spots essentuiually filled, and a three man race for the final spot.

1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Robinson Cano
4. Jorge Posada
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Jason Giambi
10. Wilson Betemit
11. Jose Molina
12. Shelley Duncan
13. Morgan Ensberg
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Mike Mussina
16. Andy Pettitte
17. Ian Kennedy
18. Phil Hughes
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Joba Chamberlain
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Kyle Farnsworth
23. Billy Traber
24. Darrell Rasner
25. ?

Traber's the only non Igawa lefty left as far as I remember, with Henn on the DL and Phillips sent down. He's pretty much made the team unless Girardi changes his mind about carrying a lefty. As for the long man spot that Girardi has said he wants, Igawa hasn't pitched well at all, and Karstens appears to have been injured today, which leaves Rasner as the only real option (and the person I would have picked anyway).

That leaves one spot. Seems like it's a three man race at this point, between Ross Ohlendorf, Brian Bruney, and Scott Patterson. Ohlendorf seems least likely to me right now (with 2 more games remaining for that to change). He's pitched very well but has allowed the most hits out of the three (none have walked a lot of guys) and in theory could gain some benefit from being in AAA for a little bit. Patterson has pitched far and away better than any of the three, and better than anyone in camp too. It's not even close. But he's also never pitched above AA, so they may want to see what he can do in AAA first. Bruney has pitched very well and probably has the least to gain from being sent to the minors; at this point he'd just be sitting around waiting for a callup.

All three have options remaining as is my understanding, so that wouldn't factor in. I think it's between Bruney and Patterson right now, and it will depend solely on whether Patterson was ever really "in the race" or whether it was always intended he'd be sent down unless every other reliever was god awful. Ohlendorf still has a shot though.

The Moose

2008-02-17T02:01:00.002-05:00

According to a few different people, Mark Feinsand and Peter Abraham amond others) Mike Mussina had Phil Hughes' locker moved from between Pettitte and Pavano to the spot next to his. Ian Kennedy is already on the other side of Mussina.

I've always been a fan of Mussina. He gets a lot of criticism, some deserved, some not, but I'll always remember some of his biggest games for the Yankees. Remember the Jeter Flip? Moose was the one who had the Yankees in a position to win by pitching a shutout. Remember Aaron Boone hitting that home run off Wakefield? Of course you do, but it's unfortunate that less people remember the fact that if not for Mike Mussina brilliantly escaping an inherited first and third, nobody out jam followed by two more scoreless innings, the Yankees are headed home. Seriously, if Mike Mussina allows a sacrifice fly and then a double play, everyone would have said he did a good job, and yet the Yankees would have lost. But he got out of it without allowing a run. Everytime someone claims he can't pitch in big spots (and sometimes he has come up short, like...you know...most pitchers), there's an example of him being out of his element (relieving), pitching in one of the biggest games of his life in one of the toughest situations you'll ever see.

Anyway, I digress. Mussina had a good 2006, but otherwise has struggled for years now. Last year he was overall pretty terrible. But the bottom line is the Yankees need someone to fill a rotation spot. With Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba all on innings counts, Wang and Pettitte alone aren't going to cut it. Maybe you can find someone at this point that can put up slightly better numbers than Mussina (but I stress maybe, pickings are slim), but it may not be so easy to find that veteran presence. Wang's a kid too, in baseball years. Pettitte's a veteran presence, but he has his own problems to deal with. That leaves Mike Mussina, and you know what, Ian and Phil can do a heck of a lot worse. I think it's great to see Mussina step up, ready and willing to teach the kids whatever he can, and not just because someone tells him he should. One of these kids could be knocking him out of the rotation this year, but he's still willing to teach them. I think thats great. So thumbs up to Mike Mussina, and if Hughes and Kennedy can have anywhere close to the career and consistency Mussina has had prior to 2004, Yankee fans will be very, very happy with the results.

Dynasty? Really?

2008-02-17T01:46:00.001-05:00

So apparently a book about the new Red Sox dynasty is coming out.

Look, the Red Sox are an excellent team right now. And yes, they're the only team so far this decade to win it all more than once. But dynasty? Oh come on. The 2004 team and the 2007 team aren't even that similar. You have a few of the same core players (Ortiz, Manny, Varitek, Schilling) and a couple guys who are steady contributors but not the big time players (Wakefield, Timlin) but beyond that, not a heck of a lot. No Papelbon, no Pedroia in 2004. Youkilis wasn't a full time player. No Beckett, no Matsuzaka, no Lester, no Lowell, no Lugo, no Crisp, no Drew, no Okajima, the list goes on. Hell, Boston got swept in the first round in 2005, and then didn't even come in second in their division in 2006. Am I supposed to believe the amazing ability of the 2004 team carried over all the way to 2007 to form this new dynasty?

Could this team become a dynasty? Sure. I'm not trying to bash the Red Sox here, they have a very good team. But the 2004 team has little to do with the 2007 team, and even if they had almost the same players, it takes a lot more than two wins in four years to be a dynasty. The Blue Jays did better than that in the early 90s, winning back to back...are they a dynasty? Of course not.

Anyway, hey, spring training is here!

Alex Rodriguez

2008-02-14T22:45:00.002-05:00

Alex Rodriguez

2007 Stats: .314/.422/.645, 54 Home Runs, 156 RBIs, 24 Stolen Bases

Last year, Alex had one of the better seasons you'll ever see. He easily won the MVP...now, can he repeat it?

Probably not, but that's not exactly a knock on him. When someone has a year like that, it's not fair to expect them to put up those numbers again. That doesn't mean he can't have another MVP caliber season however, and I fully expect him to. I think he may have turned a bit of a corner last year in that he seemed to have stopped letting the crowd and media reactions dictate how he plays. In 2006 it was clear that he was effected by the booing, and while he didn't really have to deal with it much this past season (getting off to such a strong start in April with two walkoffs will do that for you), he had plenty of other things going on that the media wouldn't leave him alone about. It didn't appear to effect him at all, and if he can keep that going, there's no reason to think he can't continue to put up MVP caliber seasons for a bit longer.

Prediction: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs

Yeah, it's down a little, but I'd sign for those numbers right now, and really, who wouldn't?

Predictions

2008-02-11T19:28:00.000-05:00

Leading up to the start of the season, I'm going to start taking a look at the players who will be on the team (barring injury, of course). A little early, sure, but pitchers and catchers are reporting soon, and I don't intend to do more than one a day (and I know I won't have one every single day), so now's a good time to start. I'll start out with guys we know (again, barring injury) will be on the team, and hopefully by the time I get to the end, some of the other spots will be a little clearer.

Morgan Ensberg

2008-01-31T22:40:00.000-05:00

Add Ensberg to the list of players who could potentially make the 25 man. Will he? I'm not sure. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, then it's probably a no brainer. If he is, I think Ensberg still has a chance as he's probably the best hitter out of anyone else who could fill the final bench spot (if the Yankees decide to carry 12 pitchers), but it may not make much sense. He'd essentially fill the same role as Shelley Duncan, except he can play third base instead of the corner outfield spots.

I can see a scenario where you have both Duncan and Ensberg starting against a tough lefty (with one at first base and the other DHing, with both Giambi and Damon sitting), but I don't think that's too likely. Still, Ensberg is as much a possibility as any of the others based on his bat and potential.

Santana

2008-01-30T02:21:00.000-05:00

The long national nightmare is almost over. After months of speculation, news stories, speculation, trade offers, speculation, and oh, did I mention speculation, Johan Santana has been freed from his confines in Minnesota and will be headed to New York. But not, as hoped/feared (depending on which side you take), as a member of the Yankees.

Seems to me that the Twins GM did overplay his hand. The Yankees apparently were out of it entirely at this point, and there are differing reports on whether Boston was really offering much at this point. I was never crazy about the Red Sox offer, but it was probably more of a sure thing than what the Twins had to settle for. And maybe it's just me, but I thought Hughes was the best player offered in any deal, and perhaps the Twins made an error in judgement by waiting too long, as that window closed prety quickly.

But right now I'm glad it went down the way it did. Boston doesn't get Santana and the Yankees get to keep Hughes (not to mention Melky, Kennedy, and any other prospects that might have been involved). Would Santana have been nice, sure, but on the other hand he also would have cost a lot of money and expected a long contract. If you're going to give it to any pitcher, it's got to be Santana, but still. I'm a big fan of Phil's, and I'm glad I'll get to see him pitch as a Yankee.

The Relievers

2008-01-24T21:59:00.000-05:00

First, rumors are that Cano and the Yankees are close on a deal for a 4 year, 30 million dollar contract, with the possibility of one or two option years. Without the option years it's somewhat pointless, just a means to avoid going to arbitration. With them, it could be a potentially very valuable deal. Smart move, in my opinion.

Last time I looked at the spots in the 25 man roster that were likely set in stone, as well as who might fill the final offensive spots. Now I'll take a look at which pitchers are going to be attending Spring Training (as of now) and who might find themselves on the major league roster to start the season. For the purposes of this, I didn't bother with Carl Pavano, Humberto Sanchez, or Andrew Brackman, all on the 40 man roster. Brackman won't even be ready for the minors until 2009 in all likelihood (certainly not to start the season), and Pavano probably won't be back with the Yankees at all, and again, certainly not before the end of the season. Sanchez is an interesting case as he could have an impact with the Yankees this season, but he won't be ready to start the season. I'll also seperate the guys into righties and lefties, simply because one of the lefties may end up making the team even though the righties are more plentiful and probably could be better.

RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS

Ross Ohlendorf: Ohlendorf received a September callup in 2007 and pitched very well (albeit in 6 innings). He struggled in his one inning in the playoffs, but the fact that he even made the roster should tell you something. Ohlendorf seems like a decent bet to make the team to start the season, although it's not out of the question that he could go back to the minors for a little while.

Edwar Ramirez: I really don't know what to make of Edwar. His changeup is just disgustingly good and his minor league numbers are fantastic. If he had a second good pitch I'd write the poor major league numbers off as extenuating circumstances and give him a shot right out of Spring Training. But realistically, Edwar's fastball just isn't that great. If hitters are able to sit on it, he's going to have a problem in the majors, no matter how great his changeup is. He's got as good a shot as anyone to make the team out of Spring Training, but he's another guy who I expect to be on a short leash. I'd love to see him succeed, especially with that great changeup, but he may need something more.

Brian Bruney: Bruney might be out of options, I'm actually not sure. When he can keep his control even somewhat in line, he does have very good stuff, and Yankee fans saw that from time to time last season. Unfortunately, he doesn't always manage that very well, and Yankee fans saw that as well. He's also got a good chance to make the team if he has a strong spring, but he, like almost everyone on this list, is going to be on a very short leash.

Mark Melancon: Added for the sake of completeness. He won't make the team out of Spring Training, that's pretty much a certainty. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him on the Yankees later this season, if he has a strong showing in the minors.

Chris Britton: Poor Chris couldn't buy a callup last season it seemed. And when he did make it, he pitched fairly well for the most part but still wasn't trusted. Perhaps Girardi will be different. Britton actually has some success in the AL East (he had a good season in Baltimore), so he really should get a shot at least.

Jeff Marquez: Nope, he's likely to be back in the minors as a starter, although he could see time during the season in case of injuries.

Jose Veras: Here's another possibility after a decent September (he was better than his final numbers show, almost all of his earned runs came in a single game). He too made the playoff roster, so like Ohlendorf, that does show the Yankees are high enough on him that he likely has a shot at making the 25 man out of Spring Training.

Jonathan Albaladejo: For those who don't recall, he's the guy who came over from the Nationals in the Tyler Clippard trade. He did decent but not great in AA last season, but was excellent in AAA and had a strong September with the Nats. He's certainly a possibility to make it out of Spring Training, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him sent to AAA so the Yankees can see firsthand what they got before sending him to the majors (not unlike Chris Britton).

Jeff Karstens: If Kennedy and Joba are both on the roster, then forget it. If not, then Karstens is a possibility for a long relief role. I'm not a huge fan though, to be honest. He struggled greatly last year when not injured, and I don't think he's a great option out of the bullpen.

Darrell Rasner: Another guy Yankee fans have seen for the past couple of years, Rasner was actually taken off the 40 man, which may not be a good sign for how the organization views him. However, I like Rasner. Realistically the Yankee organization is not the place for him, since there are way too many starting options above him. However, if Kennedy (or Joba I suppose) starts the season in the minors, I think Rasner would be an excellent option for a long relief role.

Daniel McCutchen: Nope. He could end up as a reliever, but at the moment he's a starter. He'll head back to the minors for now, but it's not out of the question we could see him this year. I'd expect him in 2009 though.

Alan Horne: Here's an interesting one. Horne had an excellent season in the minors last year as a starter, and he could continue down that path. However, there are a few guys ahead of him, and Horne does have stuff that would probably translate well to the bullpen. I doubt he makes it out of Spring Training, I expect the Yankees to have him continue to pitch as a starter in the minors for the time being, but he's a guy we could see sometime during the season, as a reliever or starter depending on how he is needed.

Steven Jackson: I doubt he has any real shot at making the team as a reliever short of something very bizarre happening. Eventually I suppose it's a possibility, but he still has things to work on in the minors.

Steven White: Here's someone I think we will see sometime this season, and perhaps even right out of Spring Training if he does very well. White's been with the organization for a bit now and just finished a season at AAA. The Yankees are going to need to make a decision about him soon. He's probably going to be blocked as a starter unless a few injuries occur, so the Yanks may as well try him out in the bullpen.

Scott Patterson: Patterson has done very well in the minors so far, but he's not thought as highly of as many others. He should have a shot though if he does well in Spring Training, and unless he starts struggling in the minors, he's a good bet to at least be given a chance to do something in the majors at some point this season.

Daniel Giese: The nice thing about Giese is that he doesn't walk a lot of people (remember how frustrated we as Yankee fans would get when we had Farnsworth, Proctor, and Bruney all walking the ballpark?). He will give up his share of hits, but he's got a chance at making the bullpen. If not, we could still see him at some point this year.

Scott Strickland: Strickland is interesting in that he actually has some major league experience (although all in the NL), where he did pretty well. But he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2005, and there only for 4 innings. I expect him to head to AAA, but he could be an option at some point.

LEFT HANDED PITCHERS

Kei Igawa: At some point the Yankees are likely to do something with Igawa, they're paying him enough. He may initially be viewed as a starting option in cae of injury to multiple pitchers, but at some point they should try to either trade him or see if he can work in the bullpen at all. I'd be shocked if he made the team out of spring training, but we'll probably end up seeing him at some point this season, in some role.

Heath Phillips: I suppose he's a possibility, but it doesn't seem too likely.

Chase Wright: Here's someone we saw as a starter last season. I expect Chase to be converted to the bullpen, and it might be pretty soon, but I wouldn't expect him to make the team out of spring training.

Sean Henn: Henn occasionally showed some flashes of brilliance, but overall has struggled everytime he pitched in the majors. He's quickly running out of chances, and he may not even get one this time. However, he's probably a better bet to make the team (should they decide they need a left handed reliever) than Wright, Phillips, or Igawa.

Billy Traber: Traber may not be a great bet and normally would be ignored, however, if you look at his career splits against lefties, they're quite good. He may not be ideal, especially since the splits against righties are, well, not at all good. But if it's between him or Henn, he has a good chance at making the team.

That's everyone. So who do the Yankees go with? I honestly don't know. I think Ohlendorf is going to make the team, so that's one of the three remaining spots. I'm also going to guess Bruney makes it, because I believe he's out of options. If it was me, I'd probably cut ties with him or at least try to send him down to the minors, but we'll see. That leaves one spot. I'd rather see a guy like Britton, Albaladejo, or Veras get a shot (or perhaps Edwar), but if the Yankees choose to go with a lefty, I'll guess that Traber makes it.

So my best guess for a final roster:

1. Jorge Posada
2. Robinson Cano
3. Derek Jeter
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Johnny Damon
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Shelley Duncan
11. Jason Giambi
12. Jose Molina
13. Nick Green
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Phil Hughes
17. Joba Chamberlain
18. Mike Mussina
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Kyle Farnsworth
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Ian Kennedy
23. Ross Ohlendorf
24. Brian Bruney
25. Billy Traber

Nick Green could be replaced with Alberto Gonzalez, Kennedy could be replaced by Rasner or Karstens, and those last three could be switched out with any number of guys, but I think that's a good possibility for the opening day roster, if there are no more trades and people stay healthy.

Opening Day Roster?

2008-01-19T21:19:00.000-05:00

We're not there yet, but we're getting closer, so let's take a look at who will be on the team, who is likely to be on the team, and who might fill those remaining spots on the 25 man roster come the start of the 2008 season. This, of course, is assuming no more trades and everyone stays healthy.

LOCKS

Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Jose Molina, Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Wilson Betemit

The first 17 guys are fairly obvious and don't really need any explanation. The only one I want to add anything to is Betemit. Cashman seemed to imply there was going to be a race for the 1st base spot, which Betemit will likely be a part of...however, it's a certainty that even if someone else ends up as the full time first baseman (as opposed to the platoon that currently seems likely), Betemit will be on the team in some role.

NEAR LOCKS

These guys are almost certainly going to be on the team, but there's just enough of a question mark that I didn't want to include them above.

Shelley Duncan: Assuming health, Shelley's almost certain to make the team. Currently, it seems that he'll end up as part of a first base platoon with Wilson Betemit...his ability to also play the outfield in an emergency is helpful as well. However, if someone else (Juan Miranda for example) manages to win the first base job, Duncan isn't an absolute lock (like Betemit is) to be on the 25 man in some way. It's extremely likely Duncan breaks camp with the team, but you never know.

Joba Chamberlain: Again, almost certain that Joba enters the 2008 season on the major league team in some capacity, either as a reliever or a starter. However, it's not absolutely out of the question that, in an attempt to have him ease back into the starters role, to work on the changeup, and to keep his innings down, that the Yankees could send him down to AAA for a month to start the season. At the end of 2007 I thought this was the best option, but the Yankees seem to imply that he will definitely be on the team in some capacity right from day one. However, just in case, I include him here.

Mike Mussina: I include him here only because of that slight possibility he looks so god awful in spring training, while Joba and Kennedy look so dominant, that the Yankees just cut their losses. Extremely, extremely unlikely, but there it is.

That gives us 20 guys. 12 hitters, 8 pitchers (including 5 starters). So how about those other 5 spots?

THE OTHER SPOTS

Ian Kennedy: This is tough to call. The thing is, Kennedy's ready. He's probably even more ready than Joba in terms of needing less development (Joba's changeup could use some work). Plus he threw more innings than Joba this past season, so he's more capable than him (and probably even Hughes) to pitch a full season. He also doesn't have the stuff of either Hughes or Joba, and he's not a potential ace. Since Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes are all definite locks for the rotation, and Mussina is almost certainly there too, it depends on what the Yankees do with Joba. If Joba starts the year in the bullpen to keep his innings down, then it's a no brainer that Kennedy makes the team. If the Yankees change their mind and send Joba to AAA to start the season, Kennedy makes the team. But if Joba does begin the year as a starter, as the Yankees keep saying, then I honestly don't know. It just seems a waste to make Kennedy a reliever, but he really doesn't seem to have much to do in the minors. My guess is Kennedy makes the team in some way, but he may get shoved into the spot starter/long relief role until someone falters, which I don't think is a great idea.

Beyond Ian, the Yankees will carry at least one more hitter. This one depends on a lot of factors, though. The possibilities, going by the 40 man roster and the 26 non roster invitees:

Juan Miranda: He would make the team as the first baseman, if he made it at all. I doubt he does. I could definitely see Miranda getting a mid season callup if he does well, but I doubt he starts the year in the majors. However, Cashman hinted that he was in the mix for the first base job, so he should be brought up.

Jason Lane: He's another candidate for the first base job. I just don't see it happening, though. He hasn't played much first base, and I don't see him beating out Duncan or Betemit. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, Lane would probably make it in his spot, but otherwise, I doubt it.

Bernie Castro: A candidate for the utility job, if Betemit is the first baseman (or a major part of a platoon). Very unlikely, really only played second base in the past. But he was invited, so there you are.

Cody Ransom: Another non roster invitee and candidate for the utility job. He's got a better shot than Castro, but I still think it's unlikely.

Nick Green: One of the two major candidates for the utility job, I suspect. He's done this before, and it's probably between him and Alberto Gonzalez.

Alberto Gonzalez: As mentioned, it may be between him and Green for the utility job. Neither guy has shown much hitting wise, and both are good defensively. The question is, do you want to go for the younger guy with more theoretical potential (since we already know what we'll get from Green)? Or do you want Gonzalez to stay in AAA and see if he can get any better? The problem is he really isnt likely to get many at bats as a utility infielder for the Yankees, especially since there are three first baseman already (Duncan, Betemit, Giambi). All of his at bats would have to come from replacing Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano, three guys who rarely miss games and are too important to the offense to afford them missing many games. To me, it depends on how you view Gonzalez. If you think he can get better, leave him in AAA. If you think what he is now is what you're going to get, give him a shot at the majors.

So based on everything above, that gives us a theoretical opening day roster of:

1. Jorge Posada
2. Robinson Cano
3. Derek Jeter
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Johnny Damon
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Shelley Duncan
11. Jason Giambi
12. Jose Molina
13. Alberto Gonzalez/Nick Green
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Phil Hughes
17. Joba Chamberlain
18. Mike Mussina
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Kyle Farnsworth
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Ian Kennedy (in some role)

I'd say except for the possibility of Kennedy opening the season in AAA, and the fact that Spring Training may determine whether Gonzalez or Green breaks camp with the major league team, those 22 are very likely.

In my next post I'll look at the pitching possibilities for the final three bullpen spots.

Arbitration figures!

2008-01-19T20:58:00.000-05:00

So the Yankees have four players who were eligible for arbitration. They already reached a deal with Wilson Betemit, leaving three left.

Brian Bruney wants $845,000, the Yankees are offering $640,000. I imagine they'll come to an agreement relatively soon. Overall Bruney really wasn't that good last year, and aside from small sample sizes, has yet to be anywhere. I think $640,000 is more than reasonable, but they're close enough that they should be able to find a middle ground.

Chien Ming Wang wants 4.6 million, the Yankees are offering 4 million. Again, they're pretty close together here, I imagine they'll come to a deal.

The big question is Robinson Cano. Cano wants 4.55 million...the Yankees are offering only 3.2 million. That's a huge gap, and really kind of surprises me. I expected the Yankees to make similar offers to Wang and Cano, but that's quite a bit off. In 2006 Cano was contending for a batting title at the end of the season, and this past year, he was one of the best hitters on the team after the all star break, putting up very good numbers while playing a strong second base. I'd like to say they come to a deal without going to a hearing, but they're off by an awful lot. I don't know that 4.55 million is a great number, but I imagine it's more likely to be chosen over 3.2 million, which just seems low.

Of course, the other question is "Hey, why not sign these guys to long term deals?" I like Cashman a lot, but the idea of never giving extensions or not signing the younger guys to longer deals is one I disagree with. Look, I understand the idea behind not doing it, and I don't want extensions to become common, nor do I want every young guy signed to long contracts when we really don't know what we'll get from them. But Cano and Wang have been very good, consistently, for 2 and a half years now. Cano in particular just isn't going to be replaced anytime soon...how can you? A longer deal not only buys out a couple of his free agent years at a cheaper price while also making him happy (presumably, I suppose it's possible he doesn't WANT a longer deal), but it avoids the need to go to arbitration every off season, which can save money in and of itself. Maybe the Yankees want to give it another season, I don't know, but these types of things can hurt the team. Same with the extensions...remember how Posada and Mariano wanted extensions at the beginning of 2007? Short of a serious career ending injury (which can happen anytime anyway) everyone knew the Yanks would be trying to resign both guys. If they went for an extension, they probably could have gotten Mariano to come back for quite a bit less money per year, and they probably could have given Posada a 3 year extension instead of signing him to a 4 year contract. Maybe this ends up hurting the Yankees too, maybe not, but in my mind, sometimes it's okay to consider long term deals or extensions.

Mussina

2007-08-27T20:33:00.000-05:00

So, here's the thing. I know everyone is calling for Mussina's head right now (and deservedly so). People want him out of the rotation. All well and good, but who do you replace him with? Unfortunately, we can't just magically take him out of the rotation and all is well, you have to put someone else into that spot, and that's where the problem comes up. Let's take a look at the pitchers on the 40 man roster:

TJ Beam: Reliever
Andrew Brackman: Just drafted, getting Tommy John surgery
Chris Britton: Reliever, may have killed a family member of Joe Torre or Brian Cashman
Jim Brower: Reliever, struggled in his short time with the Yankees
Brian Bruney: Reliever, already in the majors
Joba Chamberlain: Near his innings count, incredibly effective out of the bullpen, unlikely to make the move from starter to bullpen back to starter (followed by back to bullpen in all likelihood) for this season
Roger Clemens: In the rotation
Tyler Clippard: Struggling big time, has yet to recover, poor MLB numbers overall this year
Matt DeSalvo: Mediocre at best in his time in the majors. Sadly, may actually be the best option.
Kyle Farnsworth: Reliever
Sean Henn: Reliever, struggling in that role, doesn't have the pitches to be an effective starter
Phil Hughes: In the rotation
Kei Igawa: Has struggled big time in multiple trips to the majors
Jeff Karstens: Awful in the majors this year, although he has pitched pretty decent in the minors, in a small sample size.
Mike Mussina: In the rotation for now
Carl Pavano: 60 Day DL, Yankee career is probably over anyway
Andy Pettitte: In the rotation
Edwar Ramirez: Reliever
Darrell Rasner: Unfortunately, on the 60 Day DL. I believe his season is over. He probably would have been the best option.
Mariano Rivera: Reliever
Humberto Sanchez: 60 Day DL, season over
Jose Veras: 60 Day DL, reliever anyway
Ron Villone: 15 day DL, one time spot starter at best, has struggled recently
Luis Vizcaino: Reliever
Chien Ming Wang: In the rotation
Chase Wright: Struggled in his time in the majors, hasn't been all that good in the minors this year after a strong start

And that's everyone on the 40 man. Anyone else would require a 40 man roster move (a difficult decision even before you consider Mientkiewicz is likely to come off the 60 day DL soon). Even if the Yankees made a move, who do you call up? My understanding is Ian Kennedy is either at or very close to his innings limit. Alan Horne is probably around there too. The only other name I even see as a possibility is Steven White (who is around or just below 100 IP), who has been pretty good in AAA this season. But I'm not sure if he is someone the Yankees would want to call up, especially considering the required 40 man roster move.

That pretty much leaves you with a choice between Mussina, Igawa, Karstens, or DeSalvo. None of them have had good years. For me, I'd have to reluctantly go with Mussina unless he struggles mightily in his next start (which would be against Tampa Bay). Prior to this recent horrific stretch, Mussina had been pitching quite well against bad teams. In September, the Yankees have one series against Boston, one against Seattle, and then a lot against mediocre to awful teams. Mussina may be awful against good teams right now, but let's be honest here. Igawa was awful against BAD teams. Karstens hasn't shown anything against good or bad teams. The best you can say about DeSalvo is he had two good starts against Seattle. Other than that, he was bad, against bad teams.

Mussina sucks right now. No question. But in this case, the potential replacements aren't any better, and at least Mussina has pitched well against bad teams at the major league level, something Igawa, Karstens, and DeSalvo can't say. I'm as frustrated as anyone with Mussina, and unless he really shows some dominance the rest of the season he shouldn't be anywhere near the starting rotation in the playoffs (should the Yankees make it), but realistically, unless I'm mistaken about Kennedy, Horne, or perhaps White, there's nobody else likely to be much better.

Yankees (Rasner) VS A's (Blanton), Game 10

2007-04-15T00:35:00.000-05:00

Game 10: New York Yankees VS Oakland A's

The Starter: Rasner pitched really well tonight. It looked like we'd be in for a rough ride after he gave up 4 hits in the first inning and allowed 3 runs (all unearned thanks to a Jeter error, though), but from that point on he only gave up one more hit, and walked nobody. He had a great strike to ball ratio too. The one glaring problem was that he only went 5 and 1/3rd IP (not his fault, Torre pulled him way too early as the rest of the game would show). I'd say he earned himself another start after that.

The Bullpen: Yet again, the bullpen pitches ridiculously well and bails the Yankees out yet again. And this time there was no screwing around...every single pitcher in the bullpen made an appearance. They pitched 7 and 2/3rd innings of scoreless ball. Yeah, there were some hits and walks scattered around, but they got the job done, period. This bullpen has seriously bailed the Yankees out this year. Words can't quite describe how ridiculously good the bullpen has been for the most part. Farnsworth has had some problems (although he pitched a scoreless inning tonight) and Proctor struggled a little to start, but that's it. Everyone knew Mariano would be lights out and I thought Vizcaino would be good, but Henn and Bruney in particular have been absolutely lights out. And special credit to Bruney tonight.

The Offense: Well, it could have been better. They had their chances to win this game earlier than the 13th inning and didn't get it done, but Blanton also pitched well, and Street always pitches well against the Yanks. A-Rod had another important home run, Posada had a big pinch hit double, and of course, Giambi finally gets another home run to take the lead in the 13th. He hasn't been hitting well this year, but his two home runs have both been huge. Nice job for Cano, too. 3 for 4 and 2 walks, with 2 runs scored. A very good game for him.

The Defense: Okay. Overall, good lord, this was bad. Four errors on the day! Jeter's error in the first was particularly bad as it cost the Yankees all 3 runs. But in spite of the sloppy game again, there were a few nice plays. Jeter made a couple, and Melky did as well, including gunning down Crosby to end the first inning when he tried to score. Doesn't sound that big since it was the first, but guess what? That run scores and the Yanks lose. Think about that, all you "early runs don't count" folks who always used that to bash A-Rod. So while the defense was insanely sloppy today and four errors is clearly bad, at least this time there were a couple nice game saving plays.

Player of the Game: I'm going to give it to Brian Bruney. Giambi had the huge home run in the 13th that the Yankees really badly needed. Bruney was clearly shot and couldn't have pitched a 14th in all likelihood, which means that unless Pavano is healthier than we've been led to believe, Andy Pettitte was coming into that game and we would have to go scrounge up another pitcher from the minors to start tomorrow. So big, big home run for Giambi.

But I feel like I need to give credit to Brian Bruney. Last night in a loss that was barely his fault (the triple was, but he really should have been out of that in the end), he threw 36 pitches and supposedly wasn't even going to be available today. But with everyone else used, Bruney had to come in in the 12th, and pitched a perfect inning. Then he came back out for the 13th after Giambi hit the home run and, while very clearly running on fumes alone, walked the first batter on four straight pitches, gave up two long outs, and then struck out the final batter to end the game. Bruney went way above and beyond what he should have been asked to do considering the circumstances, but because the alternative was bringing in tomorrow's starter, Bruney went back out there and got the job done. He shouldn't have even had to pitch one inning after yesterday; instead he pitches two. I give Giambi a world of credit for his huge home run and normally I would have given it to him, but it was partly because he wasn't hitting beforehand that the Yanks were even in the 13th. The bullpen stepped up big time tonight, and nobody moreso than Brian Bruney. Yet again, the bullpen is the reason why we won this game.

Overall Thoughts: Pettitte better pitch a complete game tomorrow, because this is killing me here. Someone needs to check the pulse of the bullpen, because they're practically dead after the last two nights. Mariano can go for an inning tomorrow, and I'm sure a couple more such as Henn can throw a bit, but there is no way Bruney pitches tomorrow, and Farnsworth, Vizcaino, and Proctor all pitched the last two days. Henn can definitely go a couple innings if necessary, but it'd be nice if he didn't have to. Great win for the Yanks tonight, and it's a real blessing that Monday is an off day. This bullpen needs about a week off, and deserves it too.

Yankees (Pavano) VS Twins (Ponson), Game 6

2007-04-10T01:43:00.000-05:00

Game 6: New York Yankees VS Minnesota Twins

The Starter: Much, much, much better. Pavano went 7 innings and gave up 2 runs, 6 hits, and no walks. And really, if he felt like it, Torre could have left him in another inning. He only threw 79 pitches. A very encouraging start especially based on the fact that Pavano pitched well until he tired out in the 5th inning in his first start. Hopefully this is the Pavano we'll see more often than not.

The Bullpen: Perhaps the best part of Pavano's start was that the bullpen actually got a little rest. Brian Bruney threw an easy inning. He looks absolutely nasty right now, with 7 strikeouts in 3 and 2/3rd innings pitched (while allowing 1 hit, 1 walk, and no runs). Farnsworth walked a batter but otherwise pitched a good 9th inning. The bullpen continues its dominance.

The Offense: Good job by the offense today. Abreu had 4 RBIs and an excellent at bat against Ponson that resulted in a 2 run home run. A-Rod picked up his 5th home run of the season (the fastest any Yankee has ever hit five). Damon saw his batting average plummet today as he went 2 for 4. Jeter picked up 3 hits as well, and Posada contributed with a two run ground rule double. The bottom of the lineup struggled, however, but when the top scores 8 runs, I think all Yankee fans can live with that.

The Defense: Much better. Melky got a late jump on a ball that he probably could have caught (which resulted in an RBI double), but the infield defense looked great today. Jeter, Mientkiewicz, and Cano all made excellent plays.

Player of the Game: Although Abreu's 4 RBIs make a strong case, it really has to go to Carl Pavano. I commented at one point before the game that after the first five games, if Pavano went 6 innings and have up 4 runs, he'd be a hero in New York. He went above and beyond, pitching 7 innings (and really, he could have given more, but Torre is being cautious) and only giving up two runs (and both long after the Yankees had scored plenty of runs). The Twins don't exactly have the best offense all around, but they do have some solid hitters (such as the AL Batting champion and the AL MVP). Pavano shut Morneau down completely. He's the easy choice for player of the game.

Overall Thoughts: A good game for the Yanks today. The bullpen got some rest, Pavano had a good start, the offense got it done, and A-Rod continued his hot streak. Plus, the strong defense was a nice touch.

Yankees (Igawa) VS Orioles (Trachsel), Game 4

2007-04-07T17:39:00.000-05:00

Just got back from the game. Too bad for all those people who left early. Guess what? The game isn't over until it's over. I've never left a game early, and today is one of the reasons why.

Game 4 - New York Yankees VS Baltimore Orioles

The Starter: Igawa didn't look good at all (although, on the bright side, he made it a whole 5 innings!). 8 hits and 3 walks (to go along with 7 runs) in only 5 innings is a bad line. That said, while Igawa did get hit pretty hard all night, the big blow was a simple unlucky bloop double that barely fell between Mientkiewicz, Abreu, and Cano. I'm not letting him off the hook, he put the runners on in the first place. But if that gets caught, we're talking about how he had a disappointing start, but at least he outpitched the other three by going 5 innings. Hopefully he'll improve next time out...he simply wasn't throwing strikes.

The Bullpen: With all the talk about A-Rod's huge hit (and having lost Game 3), what's going to go missing in all this is the fact that in two days, the bullpen has pitched 9 innings and given up a grand total of 2 hits, 2 walks, and zero earned runs (with both hits being singles, by the way). Today, Brian Bruney, Mike Myers, Luis Vizcaino, and Mariano Rivera combined for 4 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, and 5 strikeouts. A-Rod will get much deserved praise for his offensive performance today, but the bullpen is the reason he was even in that position. The Yankees may have lost yesterday, but the only reason that game was even close was because of the bullpen. As awful as the Yankee starters have been this season (and they've been awful), the bullpen has been just as good.

The Offense: Well, the offense started off not very good again. A-Rod was the only one hitting through the first few innings. But in the last two innings the Yankees finally showed what they were missing the last two days. This time, when they got opportunities, they capitalized on them. Giambi launched the three run home run to make it a one run game, and then with 2 outs and the bases empty, Cano singled, Jeter walked, Abreu got hit by a pitch, and A-Rod came through with the huge walkoff Grand Slam. That's what they were missing in Games 2 and 3. Sure, most of the offense may have been shoved into the final two innings, but it's very hard to argue with 10 runs on the day. The Yankee bats came through when it mattered and that's what really counts.

The Defense: Nothing really standout either way. The error was on Igawa, after he booted a ball. Not a really big deal, and Mientkiewicz made a great play to simply stop a second error. I haven't watched the game on television yet (since I was at the game), but it looked like Jeter misplayed the throw to second on the bloop "double", which allowed that third runner to cross the plate. It wasn't called an error though. Still nothing amazing, but at least it wasn't as horrific as the first two games.

Player of the Game: Gee, I wonder who it could be? Alex Rodriguez was 3 for 4 with 2 home runs, 6 RBIs, and a walkoff grand slam. Yeah, it's him. Honorable mention to Jason Giambi for closing the lead from 4 to 1, and also honorable mention to the whole Yankee bullpen. They are the reason why A-Rod and Giambi were given the opportunity to do their thing. The Devil Rays and Orioles aren't exactly the Yankees and Mets in terms of offense, but they've got some very good hitters who were all over every Yankee starter so far. With the exception of Proctor and Vizcaino struggling a bit on Thursday, the bullpen has been completely lights out.

Overall Thoughts: It was a pretty ugly game early on for the Yankees. From the 6th inning on, it was fantastic, a really fun game. A-Rod really needed that hit, and he came through. Giambi needed a big hit too, and he came through. Igawa struggled, but the bullpen picked him up big time, with Bruney striking out the side, Myers pitching a whole inning, and Vizcaino throwing a perfect inning as well. Mariano, of course, is Mariano. A bloop single was the only blemish on his record. And poor, poor Freddie Bynum. The Orioles threw him to the wolves there, bringing him in in the 8th so that his only at bat is against Mariano Rivera. Ouch. Not surprising, he struck out.

Hopefully this game buys A-Rod a little leeway. I know his walkoff last year didn't, but it was right in the middle of multiple poor performances. Let's give the guy a break, huh? He came through huge this time.

Yankees (Mussina) VS Orioles (Loewen), Game 3

2007-04-06T21:25:00.000-05:00

Game 3 - New York Yankees VS Baltimore Orioles

The Starter: Mussina simply didn't look good tonight. This time it wasn't the Yankee defense that killed him (although there was one bad play that led to a run), he just didn't have his control tonight. He walked too many guys, gave up too many hits, and struggled throughout the game. Hopefully for the Yankees Igawa shows them something tomorrow, because no Yankee starter has even made it through 5 innings yet.

The Bullpen: Excellent tonight. Sean Henn was fantastic, giving up only 1 hit in 3 innings and keeping the game close. Myers got his two lefties out. Proctor had a scare on a hard hit ball, but it was caught, and so all is well. In 5 innings the bullpen allowed one hit (a single to Melvin Mora) and one walk (Myers walked Roberts, who was batting right handed). I'll take that gladly.

The Offense: Not good, not good, not good. The Yankees had a lot of opportunities to score more than 4 runs, and they didn't capitalize. Matsui, Posada, and Cano all got RBIs, but the rest of the team didn't get it done when it mattered. Still, it's a formidable offense, so I'm sure things will improve in that regard. Would have been nice if they worked the bullpen a bit, though, since they do have two more games in a row against Baltimore. Baez, Bradford, and Ray barely had to work.

The Defense: Well, certainly better than the first two games. The only glaring mistake was the failure of anyone to cover second on a stolen base attempt (which led to a run when the hitter singled). The Yankees can't allow that kind of thing to happen. Errors are always going to be there, but there's no excuse for not even covering the base.

Player of the Game: Probably Loewen, although he wasn't as good as he was most of last year against the Yanks. He got out of jams well though, and the Yankees couldn't capitalize much.

If you're going to pick a Yankee, Sean Henn would be my easy choice. His three scoreless innings after Baltimore scored 6 runs in the first 4 innings kept this game close. If the offense had managed to knock in just a couple of those runs, he'd be the reason why they even had that opportunity.

Overall Thoughts: Another poor game for the Yankees. It's not that they're getting beaten that bugs me, it's that they're beating themselves. Let's hope Igawa can pitch well tomorrow and actually make it 5 innings.

Yankees (Pettitte) VS Devil Rays (Seo), Game 2

2007-04-06T01:44:00.000-05:00

Game 2 - New York Yankees VS Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The Starter: Andy Pettitte really didn't look very good tonight. He looked alright initially, but then struggled. Of course, the errors behind him really didn't help any. Considering the cold and the fact that he had a shortened Spring Training, I'm willing to give him a pass. Still, it could have been a lot better. Hopefully his next start will give us a better indication of what to expect.

The Bullpen: Mixed Results here. Proctor got beaten up, and Vizcaino struggled too. Farnsworth had another good outing though, as did Bruney. Myers did fine as well.

The Offense: Meh. Sure, they did get 6 runs and 14 hits, but many times they had the opportunity to drive in runners, and failed to do so. Mientkiewicz picked up another pair of hits though, and Posada contributed offensively with 3 singles.

The Defense: Unfortunately, the same can't be said for the defense. For the second game in a row, the Yankees looked awful defensively. Cano blew a play early on (although he wasn't given an error, oddly enough), Jeter picked up 2 errors (although one was a bit iffy). Mientkiewicz picked up an error, but I don't think it was a fair one at all. Pettitte fielded a ball and had to throw it off balance, throwing it directly over the plate as the runner reached it. Could Doug technically have caught that ball? Sure, if he wanted to miss the next few months with a broken arm. There was no possible way Doug could have made that play without risking a major injury...Pettitte simply wasn't able to make a good throw since he was off balance.

Beyond the errors, Posada looked horrible at the plate. Balls were constantly getting away from him (sometimes the pitchers fault, sometimes his), and it allowed some of those runs to score.

Pettitte did make a nice little play at home (on another of those passed balls) to get a runner out, but other than that, another very sloppy defensive day for the Yankees. They really need to fix that, soon.

Overall Thoughts: Poor showing tonight, but it's still just one game. The problem once again

was the defense. The pitching wasn't great, but the Yankees win that game if they played better defense. They need to really work on that.

Yankees (Pavano) VS Devil Rays (Kazmir), Game 1

2007-04-02T22:05:00.000-05:00

Game 1: New York Yankees VS Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The Starter: Carl Pavano ended the day with 4 and 1/3rd IP, 5 runs allowed (4 of which were earned, as well as 6 hits and 2 walks. Face value, not so good, but there are extenuating circumstances. The defense behind Pavano was god awful, to the tune of three errors. It's ironic, but the error that gets the most focus was the only one that didn't have any real effect on the game. A-Rod overran a foul popup in the first inning, but Pavano got a groundout two pitches later. The second error, Jeter's poor throw that Phelps couldn't come up with, not only resulted in an unearned run, but forced Pavano to throw another 10 pitches or so. In the 5th inning, Pavano started falling apart, but even didn't have to be as bad as it turned out to be. Phelps threw a ball into center field after Crawford got stuck between 1st and 2nd base. Couple that with poor throws by Posada on attempted steals for the most part, and poor throws to home plate on theoretical plays at the plate, and Pavano got absolutely nothing to work with behind him. Also, it bears keeping in mind this is his first major league game in almost 2 years. I was more concerned with his early performance prior to the game than later on (when he would undoubtedly be tiring), and he looked good early on. It's something to build on. It wasn't a great start and he doesn't come up with a win, but it's something to work on.

The Bullpen: Very good. I liked what I saw. Bruney allowed one of Pavano's runners to score, but only gave up the one hit. Vizcaino needed 5 pitches to get through the 7th inning and earn himself a win. Kyle Farnsworth looked just fine, allowing one single but nothing else. Mariano Rivera made his three hitters look silly, striking out the side. If anyone ever earned an extension, it's him. I'm just saying.

The Offense: Pretty much what we've come to expect from this team. They worked Kazmir out of the game after 5 innings, they scored a bunch of runs using both small ball and the home run. Giambi got himself 3 RBIs, Jeter had a big bases loaded game tying hit. It's also unfortunate that everyone is going to remember that stupid dropped pop up and strikeout in the first inning, because Alex did exactly what the haters claim he can't do. With the score tied, he got a rocket hit through the shortstop, stole second, scored the go ahead run on Giambi's single, and then hit a big 2 run home run in the 8th inning. I know people have already started saying it's just stat padding because the Yanks already had a 2 run lead with Mariano on the mound, but you know what, as much confidence as I have in Mariano, I'll take those 2 runs anyday. You never know when some bloop hits will lead to a run or two.

Also, thumbs up to the 9 hole guys. After all the "Blah blah blah, this turns the Yankees into an automatic out National League team" garbage, the 9 hole guys were 1 for 1 with 2 walks and a sacrifice bunt. Naturally that's not going to continue forever. Mientkiewicz really isn't all that great of a hitter, but if he can simply hit better than his 2004 and 2005 seasons, he should be good enough, especially with Phelps spotting him against lefties. Could the Yankees improve there, probably, but is it absolutely necessary? No, I don't think so. But then again, a big injury could change that, and I'll wait and see what happens when Nieves has to give Posada a day off.

The Defense: Awful. Bad bad bad. No real great plays of note and 3 errors on the day. On the bright side, they're not going to make 3 errors every game. Isn't it nice that the Yankees actually won the game where they played awful defense? Still, Phelps didn't look good (not a huge problem, since he's only really there against lefties, unless he sets the world on fire with his hitting while Mientkiewicz does nothing), and Jeter threw a couple in the dirt. A-Rod's popup isn't nearly as big a deal as some make it out to be. It didn't lead to a run, it wasn't exactly an easy play since he had to run down the line pretty far, and he's never been good with popups anyway. The Yanks looked bad in the field, but hopefully it'll improve some.

Player of the Game: I would go with Giambi. Sure, Jeter had the big game tying hit, but Jason singled in two runs right off the bat to give the Yankees the initial lead of the game, and then broke the 5-5 tie again later on. And not that I make a big deal of it, but Giambi and Phelps were the only starters not to leave anyone on base.

Overall Thoughts: Except for the awful defense, it was a good game. The bullpen looked good, there are reasons to think positively about Pavano's start, and the offense did its thing. The defense was bad (I'm not sure if I've painted a clear enough picture of just how bad they looked defensively today...) but these days happen. The Yanks aren't an amazing defensive team by any stretch, but they're good enough that this isn't going to happen consistently.

Wednesday Pettitte faces off against Jae Seo. The bottom line is if the D-Rays were going to take a game, Game 1 was the time to do it. They didn't. Obviously anything can happen in this game, but the Yankees really shouldn't have much of a problem in Games 2 and 3.

6 years, 52 million?!?

2006-12-13T15:18:00.001-05:00

If the reports are true, Daisuke Matsuzaka has signed for 6 years, 52 million dollars. An absolutely, without question awful deal for him, and a fantastic one for Boston. Matsuzaka is making less than Gil Meche monetarily, with an extra year added. Horrible, horrible deal for him. If he was going to sign for so little money, there's no way he should have signed for 6 years. He could have gotten out after 4 or 5 and signed a huge deal. Now it's just an extra year of making crap money, and he'll be another year older and another year removed from the prime of his career.

Not to mention that this is a bad deal for him in the present market. It's probably going to be even worse in 4 or 5 years.

I know he didn't have much to work with due to the limitations of the system, but Boras got owned here. Badly.

This posting system needs to be fixed or done away with immediately.

The Posting System

2006-12-10T20:27:00.000-05:00

It's now being reported that talks between the Boston Red Sox and Daisuke Matsuzaka have fallen apart, only a few days before the deadline to sign him. The source complains (which probably means the Red Sox leaked it...I know, I know, I'm as shocked as any of you) that Boras is unwilling to negotiate and "has no interest in getting around the flaws in the posting system".

In actuality the source isn't really wrong. The system is pretty flawed, and now Major League Baseball knows it. From everything rumored, Boston wants to sign Matsuzaka for something in the ballpark of 5 years/50 million (maybe a little less, maybe slightly more) while Boras expects 15-16 million. That's where the problems in the posting system come into play. Defenders of Boston in this case will point out that they already had to bid $51.1 million to even talk to the guy. Detractors will point out that 10 million is what #4 and 5 starters are being paid.

Clearly, Matsuzaka has been touted as an ace pitcher. Boston sees him as an ace, or at worst a #2 starter. They wouldn't have bid $51.1 million if they didn't. And in their mind, offering 50 million for 5 years means they're paying him $101.1 million over 5 years. For a guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors, that's insane. And yet, he wouldn't even see over half that money (not even including Boras' cut). Is that really fair?

The Yankees may be in a similar situation with Igawa, although it is slightly different there. Igawa isn't a free agent in 2008...Matsuzaka would be if he doesn't sign this contract. Igawa may get paid less than he should, but it would be during a time period he'd otherwise be pitching in Japan, as opposed to a time when he could be a free agent. Also, Igawa will be signed as a #5 starter/possible long reliever, not as an ace.

Personally, I think Matsuzaka, based on his stuff and where he will be expected to pitch in the rotation, deserves a lot closer to 15-16 million. Realistically though, thanks to the posting money, that's just not reasonable. However, I find it equally unreasonable to expect your ace starter to earn Ted Lilly money. Sure, that happens with American players (I'm looking at you, Johan Santana...imagine how much he'd make in free agency right now), but at least with them they can simply say "Nope" and go make a deal anywhere else they feel like. Japanese players are virtual slaves to the organization that wins the posting bid. They can either sign a crappy contract that isn't remotely comparable to players of similar ability, or they can refuse and return to Japan, where they didn't want to be pitching in the first place, with a fan base that likely will not respect their decision to "hold out for more cash".

And by the way, can anyone imagine how different baseball would be today if Dominican players weren't allowed to come to the United States and play unless their current team essentially sold them to whatever American team bids the highest? No free agency for David Ortiz, or Manny Ramirez, or Alfonso Soriano, or Albert Pujols, or Miguel Tejada, or (insert name of any of the many excellent Dominican players playing in Major League Baseball right now) . They wouldn't have even made it to the US until they were in their mid to late 20s, and then would have small contracts until they were at an age where they're declining.

I understand why the posting system came into existence, and can't entirely disagree with the need for some kind of rules to be in effect to prevent Japanese players from simply "retiring" and walking out of a contract in order to sign with a US team. But the way it's designed now isn't working either. Unless you think it's fair that if Daisuke Matsuzaka wants to come play in the United States for the next five years, he has to take less money than Gil Meche while dealing with higher expectations than anyone save A-Rod. I sure don't.

Here's an interesting little article about the relationship between Major League Baseball and the Dominican Republic: http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1028-25.htm

Potential 2007 roster

2006-12-08T16:52:00.000-05:00

Obviously, this isn't done, but just to see where the Yankees are at right now, a theoretical Opening Day roster (assuming everyone is healthy and Igawa gets signed):

1. Jorge Posada (C)
2. Andy Phillips (1B)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Derek Jeter (SS)
5. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
6. Hideki Matsui (LF)
7. Johnny Damon (CF)
8. Bobby Abreu (RF)
9. Jason Giambi (DH)
10. Melky Cabrera (Backup Outfielder)
11. Miguel Cairo (Backup Infielder)
12. Wil Nieves (Backup Catcher)
13. Kevin Thompson (Backup Outfielder)
14. Chien Ming Wang (SP)
15. Mike Mussina (SP)
16. Andy Pettitte (SP)
17. Randy Johnson (SP)
18. Carl Pavano (SP)
19. Kei Igawa (Long Relief/lefty out of bullpen)
20. Chris Britton (Middle Relief)
21. Mike Myers (Lefty One Out Guy)
22. Brian Bruney (Middle Relief)
23. Scott Proctor (Middle relief/Setup)
24. Kyle Farnsworth (Setup)
25. Mariano Rivera (Closer)

Obviously I'm guessing at the Yanks resigning Miguel Cairo (I think they can do better but I don't hate Cairo). And they can certainly improve at first base. Backup catcher is a tossup...Nieves isn't anything special, but the Yankees haven't had a backup catcher who can hit in awhile. It's a miracle that Posada stays as healthy as he does. Say what you will about injuries to anyone else on the team, a Posada injury could do serious damage to the Yankees, more than possibly anyone else save maybe a long term injury to Mariano Rivera. There's simply no replacement for Posada offensively. Zero. None. But traditionally the Yanks go with a John Flaherty/Kelly Stinnett/Sal Fasano type, so Nieves wouldn't be completely out of place.

And I stuck Thompson in for the 25th man, but that could also go to an Aaron Guiel type (my pick for the 25th man since he can play both outfield and first base, but Thompson is already on the team and all). Much as I love Bernie, it's one thing being asked to be the fourth outfielder and part time DH...it's quite another to ask him to be the 25th man on an American League team. Unless Torre uses him constantly instead of Melky, he'd never play.

So a potential everyday lineup of:

1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jason Giambi
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Robinson Cano
8. Jorge Posada
9. Andy Phillips

with the possibility of putting someone better than Andy in? Sounds good to me. The pitching staff has question marks but carrying 6 guys plus Karstens/Rasner/Sanchez/Hughes in the minors should help that and prevent a repeat of 2005's musical chairs game.

Andy Pettitte signed

2006-12-08T16:33:00.000-05:00

Buster Olney and The Houston Chronicle are both reporting that Andy Pettitte has signed with the New York Yankees. The deal is for 16 million, 1 year, with a player option for 2008.

Great move by the Yanks in my opinion. I mentioned it yesterday, but Andy was possibly the best option for the Yankees due to not wanting a 4 or 5 year contract. One year means Hughes has an open spot for 2008, and if Pettitte does go with the option, the Yankees will have more depth and can always move Pavano or someone else for Hughes (unless Igawa doesn't sign, in which case Randy Johnson's departure would leave an open spot).

Is 16 million a lot? Maybe, especially with the luxury tax, but overpaying for one year of Pettitte is fine by me. The Yankees have been hurt in the past not by paying too much cash, but by giving too many years. Very good deal.

Winter Meetings Over

2006-12-07T22:26:00.000-05:00

The Winter Meetings are over now. Not too many huge moves, but a few surprising ones. Ted Lilly to the Cubs makes sense, and nice job passing by Cashman...I don't even care about the money, but 4 years for a #5 starter when the Yanks have plenty of pitching depth in the minors is a bad thing. If you're going to block them with a big time starter, so be it, but if you're going to block them with Ted Lilly, there's a problem.

Gil Meche to the Royals. Apparently they drove up to his house and dumped a huge pile of money on his lawn. 5 years, 55 million (or 60, whatever it actually is) for someone with his numbers is insane, especially when those numbers came from a pitchers park. On the bright side, Yankee fans can rest easy. With every signing made this offseason, Carl Pavano's deal looks better and better. Sure, he's still been a total waste, but now 4 years 40 million is what they give to #5 starters. Imagine what he would have cost in this market.

For that matter, both Matsui and Damon's deals look insanely good now.

The Royals? Really? Speaking of, they have apparently signed Dotel to a 1 year, 5 million dollar contract. I guess that one can't bite them in the ass long term, and Dotel has the potential of course, but he didn't look good to end the year. It's not that it's necessarily a bad deal (especially in this market), but the Royals? Really?

Incidently, this can only help Gagne. Gagne's often injured too, but his upside has to be higher than Dotel's. Supposedly the Red Sox were balking at a one year, 5 million dollar contract for Gagne. I guess that makes sense though, they gave out 2 years and 4 million for a backup infielder, so 5 million for a closer is clearly too high a price.

Speaking of Boston, 5 years and 70 million for JD Drew? I mean, I thought they were so against going beyond 4 years...they're waiving that for Drew? Drew's a good enough player when healthy, but that's a lot.

Lugo was a good signing though. I'm not as high on him as some are, but he's still a good hitter and a clear upgrade for Boston.

Piazza to the A's is a good signing as well, I think.

Schmidt to Dodgers, okay. Surprised he only got 3 years though. I thought for sure he'd get 4 the way the market is going, but I think the Dodgers were smart to only go 3, even if they paid a lot per year.

And Bonds signs with the Giants for a year. Not surprising. What is surprising is their contract for Bengie Molina. I know catchers aren't exactly plentiful, but...wow. They couldn't get him cheaper or for less years? It didn't seem like many teams were out there begging for Bengie Molina to come be their full time catcher.

As for trades, the Braves and Mariners swapped Horacio Ramirez and Rafael Soriano. Not much more to say to that than wow. What were the Mariners smoking? Can I get some?

Garcia to the Phils, good move for them. I'll wait and see from the White Sox perspective. I know they needed to open a spot.

And the big moves from the Yankees are...nothing. Yet. Rumors are flying about Pettitte though. I think Pettitte would be a great signing, and the best possible fit for the Yankees this offseason. Not because of a nostalgia trip, but because he's a solid pitcher, he'd had success in New York before, and most importantly he doesn't want a 4 year or even 3 year contract. 1 year would be fantastic, giving the Yanks depth while leaving a spot for Hughes next year. 2 years would be workable, if Hughes is ready to go in 2008, the Yanks can always trade Pavano for a bag of baseballs or something, assuming a 2008 rotation of Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes, and Igawa. So yes, I think the Yanks should definitely go for Pettitte.

Go Yanks!

2006-12-06T18:42:00.000-05:00

So I decided to start a blog to put my opinions, mainly on the Yanks but really on any MLB related subject, because...I felt like it.

I'm a lifelong Yankee fan (win or lose, no bandwagon stuff here). I'll post about stuff not necessarily related to the Yankees at times, but I'm mainly going to talk about them.