We left off on second base, so let's go to shortstop.
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays: There are some concerns about Reyes moving to a new league, playing on the turf, etc, but he's still a great player and the best shortstop in the AL East at this point.
2. Derek Jeter, Yankees: I'm working under the assumption that Jeter doesn't miss much time; if he does, then Nunez would take his place and move farther down this list. Jeter is getting old and I am concerned about his ankle, but he's still a solid player. Even if he can't repeat last year, I still like him more than most of the shortstops in the divison.
3. JJ Hardy, Orioles: I went back and forth on Hardy or Escobar...I ended up going with Hardy, because the power is for real. He's not going to hit for a great average and he's not going to get on base, but at least he provides power at a position that isn't famous for it.
4. Yunel Escobar, Rays: If Escobar had had a better 2012, he'd rank above Hardy. While he has very little power, he's always done a good job getting on base. Last year, though, he had only a .300 OBP (and still no power). Moving to a pitchers park, that worries me a lot.
5. Stephen Drew, Red Sox: Like Jeter, this is dependent on Drew returning soon, although the ranking wouldn't change either way. Drew has had problems staying healthy in recent years, and simply hasn't put up the numbers he used to (which were usually solid but not amazing). Until I see him healthy, I can't rank him any higher.
Third Base:
1. Evan Longoria, Rays: I actually think Longoria is a tad overrated. He's a great hitter, but I think people view him as better than he is. He's had some injury problems and hasn't quite put everything together in the same year. He's still excellent, but the monster season hasn't happened yet. That said, I would not be the least bit shocked if that season does happen, and he's clearly the best third baseman in the division.
2. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: Based mainly on his upside and the fact that he's actually done SOMETHING in the majors, although last year was not very good. He'll start the season on the DL, and I'm not sure how much time he'll miss...if he misses significant time, his replacements drop down to the #5 spot, as I don't like either of the possibilities.
3. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox: I'm actually not a huge Middlebrooks fan; I think he's fine but not as good as he was last year. That said, I can't pretend last year didn't happen, he did a very good job and I do expect him to be solid again this year. He has less upside than Lawrie or Machado, but he had a clearly better year than either guy.
4. Kevin Youkilis/Jayson Nix, Yankees: Again, a platoon here, with Nix playing third against lefties and Youkilis playing third against righties (reportedly). I like Youkilis to bounce back a bit this year, closer to his 2011 numbers over his 2012 numbers. Nix brings it down a bit, although he's okay against lefties.
5. Manny Machado, Orioles: I was prepared to put Machado at #4 based on upside, but actually looking at his numbers, I really need to see more. He wasn't that good in 2012, which is totally understandable for a rookie jumping from AA, but he honestly wasn't that great in 2011 and 2012 either in the minors. He certainly has upside and I would not be at all surprised to see him move up the list here, but until he hits like we think he can, I can't put him higher.
Catcher:
1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: Wieters hasn't quite reached the levels people hoped for, but I think he's clearly the best catcher in the division right now.
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox: Saltalamacchia and Arencibia are actually extremely similar hitters, but Saltalamacchia has a little more power, so I went with him.
3. JP Arencibia, Blue Jays: I'm not a huge fan of Arencibia, but he does have some power, so he'll rank middle of the pack. Outside of Wieters, the catching in the AL East is pretty weak offensively, with some one dimensional players and some defense only guys.
4. Jose Molina, Rays: I expect Molina to be the worst offensively on this list (although it may be close with the two Yankees), but I like his defense, so here he is.
5. Francisco Cervelli/Chris Stewart, Yankees: It's surprising how many times I have to include two players for the Yankees. We don't really know which guy will get more starts at catcher or if they'll split it. Cervelli will likely hit a bit better, but Stewart is probably better defensively. Neither guy is likely to do much hitting. If Cervelli can improve his defense, he could move up a bit based on the ability to kind of get on base, but he still has no power. Catcher is very much a weak spot for the Yankees this year.
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Bautista had a down year last year (compared to 2011) and had an injury that concerns me a bit, but by now he should be fine. He's the best right fielder in the division, in any case.
2. Ben Zobrist, Rays: I'm a big fan of Zobrist. Some of his value comes from his ability to play a ton of different positions, but he still gets on base a lot and contributes in many ways.
3. Nick Markakis, Orioles: Markakis hasn't quite broken out as many thought he might, but Markakis is still going to give you a good average, get on base a decent amount, and hit a lot of doubles. He's a solid player.
4. Shane Victorino, Red Sox: Victorino was bad last year, but I do think he'll bounce back a little bit. He's got more power than Ichiro, which is why he ranks here.
5. Ichiro Suzuki, Yankees: I actually like Ichiro a bit this year, as I could see a power increase (say, 10 home runs and maybe even slightly more with the short porch). His defense remains great, but the days of Ichiro hitting well over .300 with 40 stolen bases may very well be over.
Centerfield:
1. Adam Jones, Orioles: I had a lot of trouble deciding who to put first, but durability put Jones here. 2012 seemed like a breakout year for Jones, and I could definitely see him repeating.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: He has the highest upside of any of the centerfielders here, and he was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2011. That said, I just don't think the power was for real. He'll still steal you a ton of bases with 10ish home runs, and there's tremendous value there. Just not more than Adam Jones. I still might have put him higher based on that one MVP caliber season, but his injury history pushes him down.
3. Brett Gardner, Yankees: Granderson will be here eventually, but since May seems to be the best case scenario for Granderson, I'm not including him. I'm a big fan of Gardner, and while there are some guys on this list who have the ability to theoretically get on base a good amount, Ellsbury and Gardner are the only two who have actually done it over a full season. Gardner was a little off in 2011, and missed most of 2012 with an injury, but he's looked solid this spring, and I think you'll get a good season out of him. Plus, defensively, he's one of the best in baseball.
4. Desmond Jennings, Rays: I like Jennings potential, with some good speed and some power. The problem is, as of now he hasn't really gotten on base much in the majors. He had a great OBP in the minors so there's reason to think he could improve there, but for now I have him ranked below the guys who have actually done it in the majors.
5. Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: Rasmus had one really good year in 2010 and that's it. He's had an OBP below .300 for two straight years now. He's got some power, but that's about it. If he could improve his OBP he might be higher, but until then, he's last.
Left Field:
1. Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays: I'm as surprised as you. It speaks more to the ugliness of left field in this division, but still. Melky the past two years has been a very solid player, hitting for a high average with a ton of doubles to go along with double digit home runs and stolen bases. PEDs are definitely a question with him, and there will likely be some regression, but even so, he's a good player.
2. Matt Joyce, Rays: Joyce had an off year in 2012 and has struggled to play a full season, but when healthy he's a solid player with some power.
3. Jackie Bradley Jr./Jonny Gomes, Red Sox: This is a really tough one to rank, because there are a ton of questions. Will Ortiz miss a lot of time, or only a couple of weeks? Is Bradley headed for the minors when he returns no matter what, or can he keep the job? Were they honestly going to play Jonny Gomes everyday or did they have a platoon of some sort? If it's Bradley, this is an upside ranking, because he had a fantastic year in 2012, but really has not had much time in the minors and is jumping straight from AA. If Gomes, he's a solid hitter coming off a great season (in Oakland of all places), but he can't hit righties well and he's constantly injured.
4. Vernon Wells/Maybe Brennan Boesch, Yankees: THAT'S RIGHT. I SAID IT. Wells isn't dead last on the list. Two reasons for this. First, it's possible Boesch is part of a platoon with him, which would greatly increase his value as Wells actually hits lefties quite well in his career (not so much last year, but even in his terrible 2011 he killed lefties). Even if it's just Wells straight up (until Granderson returns), he does have some power. Besides, isn't Wells just the kind of guy who has been bad for an extended period of time, then suddenly sees a resurgence in New York? We can hope, right?
5. Nate McLouth, Orioles: Not a fan of McLouth (clearly). He's been really bad for three years now. He did improve some with the Orioles, but the sample size isn't big enough for me to declare him back after some really bad seasons with Atlanta and some really horrible at bats with the Pirates.
Designated Hitter:
1. David Ortiz, Red Sox: This assumes health. Ortiz is clearly the best DH option in the division and it's not close. Moving on.
2. Travis Hafner, Yankees: A huge drop from Ortiz to Hafner. Hafner has a ton of trouble staying healthy and had a bad year in 2012, but hopefully he can bounce back some. He still hit for good power and did manage a respectable OBP (especially considering how low his batting average got). I could also see Hafner platooning with Boesch, especially once Granderson returns.
3. Adam Lind, Blue Jays: What happened to you, Adam? After a great 2009 he totally fell apart. I could easily see him being lower on this list, but the 20-25 home run power keeps him here. Yikes, though.
4. Nolan Reimold, Orioles: I'd have ranked him higher, but really, he hasn't played more than roughly half a season, ever. Last year was way too small a sample size to be at all meaningful. He did have a solid half a season in 2011 though, so here he is.
5. Luke Scott, Rays: Scott will open the season on the DL, but should be back soon. I'm not a fan. He kills righties but can't hit lefties, and he's coming off a bad season. The injury doesn't help either.
I was going to rank the overall lineups, but the truth is, every single lineup here has some holes. Some are better than others, but none truly stand out and any of these lineups could be the best in the division simply via one player overachieving.
So how do I rank the teams overall? First off, this is VERY close and I could see any team finishing in any spot. I don't expect a near 30 win difference between first and last place, like in previous years.
#1. New York Yankees: This is based on the fact that I like their pitching the best. Their lineup has serious issues and unlike nearly every year in recent memory, I don't believe I would rank their offense #1 in the division...however, I'm not so sure I'd rank them last either, especially since at least some of their injured guys should be returning, and if used properly, they do have some interesting platoon guys.
#2. Tampa Bay Rays: Their pitching is only slightly worse than the Yankees (and could even be better), and their offense is decent enough for the division they're in. The main difference to me is the Rays are essentially what you see is what you get offensively, whereas the Yankees could be getting a lot of injured players back, leaving only catcher as a real hole. If some of these guys stay out longer, different story, but that's why I rank the Rays second.
#3. Toronto Blue Jays: They have the potential to be the #1 team, but I do think people are, as usual, overselling them because they "won the offseason". Bonifacio and Buehrle are nothing special. The other three players they got could be, but every one of them has serious questions. Yhe Jays have multiple holes in their lineup (catcher and center field stand out, Lawrie has to show more when he comes back, their DH hasn't been good in years, etc). If everyone stays healthy and plays to their potential, this could be a World Series winning team, but I'm sorry, I think it's garbage when I see writers declare the worst case scenario for the Yankees, the best case for Toronto, and use that as evidence to show Toronto will be better. Most teams don't hit their best or worst case scenarios, and if that happens, I think the Rays and Yankees are better.
#4. Boston Red Sox: I actually think the Red Sox will be better than they were last year, by a decent amount. But the bottom line is, I think their pitching is behind the three teams above them in the division, and their lineup, like everyone else, has some holes (catcher outside of some home runs, shortstop) and a huge question mark in left field. If Bradley is as good as they obviously hope or Gomes hits like he did last year and stays mostly healthy, they could have the best lineup in the division, but even then it'd have a couple holes, and that's a lot of ifs.
#5. Baltimore Orioles: I just think they overachieved last year. They have some good young hitters but just as many holes as everyone else in the division. The Orioles pitching is what puts them last for me. I just don't think they're as good as they were last year, not even close. I don't think they'll be as bad as some think, but to me we're looking at more of a slightly below .500 or right around .500 team, and I think everyone else in the division is more of a 83-89 win team.
Happy Opening Day!
Monday, April 1, 2013
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Comparing the AL East Teams, Part 2
Yesterday I compared the starting rotations for the AL East teams; today I''ll look at the closers, and start the position rankings. Bullpens in general fluctuate so much that I'm reluctant to grade the rest of the bullpens...it's difficult to see who is going to pitch in what situation for many of them. The closers are fairly straight forward though.
Closer:
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: It's interesting just how good the AL East is for closers. Every single team has a guy I consider a legitimate guy. In this case, the only thing that gives me pause about Mariano is last years injury; however, it shouldn't effect his pitching. I fully expect him to return to the old Mariano.
2. Fernando Rodney, Rays: I really, really hesitated on this one, because Fernando Rodney of 2007-2011 is easily the worst of the 5 pitchers we're looking at here. But he was so incredibly dominant last year that I can't put him lower. That said, there was definitely some luck involved, and his walk rate last year was mind boggingly lower than he's ever had before, i just can't see him repeating it. Still, with the Rays defense behind him and the possibility that he did figure something out, I'll rank him here.
3. Casey Janssen, Blue Jays: He took over partway through the year and pitched great. He's been borderline elite for two seasons now, and had a fantastic strikeout to walk ratio last year. The only thing that I'm concerned about is offseason shoulder surgery.
4. Joel Hanrahan, Red Sox: Hanrahan is a very good pitcher who has been a strong closer for two years now. He's moving to more of a hitters ballpark in a hitters league, but I do expect him to be good. That walk rate keeps me from moving him higher, though.
5. Jim Johnson, Orioles: Johnson had a great year in 2012, and I think he's better than most people think. That said, he doesn't strike guys out. I really considered moving him above Hanrahan, but I decided not to based on that. Honestly, though, the AL East is strong in closers.
Combined with the starting rotation, I'm fairly comfortable saying the Yankees and Rays are neck and neck for best pitching in the AL East, and I give the slight edge to the Yankees. I would also not be surprised at all if the Blue Jays ended the year with the best pitching; they have the talent. The Red Sox are a step behind but still have solid pitching. The Orioles have a decent bullpen but a lot of starters that probably overachieved last year; we'll see if I'm wrong about that, but I'd rank them last for now.
The hitting is likely a different story, so let's start ranking that. I'm going by CBSSports projected lineups as of a couple days ago, if I'm wrong about who is playing the position I'll correct it.
First Base:
1. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: First base is really ugly in the AL East, with Encarnacion being the only good one here. I don't think he quite repeats last year, but he's far and away the best first baseman in the division. I'd rank him higher even if Teixeira returns fairly quickly and shows no ill effects.
2. Mike Napoli, Red Sox: I'm a Napoli fan but the injury issue is a problem. Still, I think he's better than the other options here.
3. Chris Davis, Orioles: Chris Davis is not an amazing hitter. His average is at best acceptable and he doesn't get on base a ton. He does, however, hit home runs, and that alone puts him third on the list. I also think last years numbers were not that out of the ordinary and are repeatable for him.
4. Lyle Overbay/Kevin Youkilis, Yankees: I put both since the current word is to expect a platoon, with Youkilis playing first against lefties and Overbay against righties. I'll cover Youkilis more when we get to third base. Overbay is what he is; he's not very good at this stage, but he'll play some solid defense, and perhaps Yankee Stadium plus sitting more against lefties will help his overall numbers.
5. James Loney, Rays: Loney is more or less the same as Overbay, I just think Overbay has a bit more upside, and Loney is coming off a worse year.
Second Base:
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: A legitimate MVP candidate. I'm undecided whether he'll take a bit of a hit this year due to a worse lineup around him (less chances to drive in runners, less chances of being driven in) or if he'll do just as well if not better by getting his numbers with RiSP up (he's done it in the past, so bad luck may have been involved). Either way he's the best second baseman in the division.
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: The clear #2 second baseman after Cano. A great player who had a bit of an off year, but I expect him to keep doing what he does.
3. Kelly Johnson, Rays: I'm not a Kelly Johnson fan, at all, and I debated putting Bonifacio higher, but Johnson has a lot more power and will still steal you 10-15 bases. He won't get on base much and won't come anywhere close to even Pedroia's power, let alone Cano, but he's not worthless.
4. Emilio Bonifacio, Blue Jays: I don't really like Bonifacio, but he's going to give the Jays a lot of steals with an okay (not great, but not below .300 either) OBP. Nothing special but I'd still put him here.
5. Brian Roberts, Orioles: I REALLY wanted to rank Roberts higher, but he hasn't had anywhere in the ballpark of a full seasons stats since 2009. If you add up 2010-2012, you STILL don't get a full seasons stats, and when he's actually managed to play the last two years, he's been awful. He has the upside to be the #3 second baseman in the division, but he really has to stay healthy and actually show something before I can move him higher.
That's all for now, but I'll post more later.
Closer:
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: It's interesting just how good the AL East is for closers. Every single team has a guy I consider a legitimate guy. In this case, the only thing that gives me pause about Mariano is last years injury; however, it shouldn't effect his pitching. I fully expect him to return to the old Mariano.
2. Fernando Rodney, Rays: I really, really hesitated on this one, because Fernando Rodney of 2007-2011 is easily the worst of the 5 pitchers we're looking at here. But he was so incredibly dominant last year that I can't put him lower. That said, there was definitely some luck involved, and his walk rate last year was mind boggingly lower than he's ever had before, i just can't see him repeating it. Still, with the Rays defense behind him and the possibility that he did figure something out, I'll rank him here.
3. Casey Janssen, Blue Jays: He took over partway through the year and pitched great. He's been borderline elite for two seasons now, and had a fantastic strikeout to walk ratio last year. The only thing that I'm concerned about is offseason shoulder surgery.
4. Joel Hanrahan, Red Sox: Hanrahan is a very good pitcher who has been a strong closer for two years now. He's moving to more of a hitters ballpark in a hitters league, but I do expect him to be good. That walk rate keeps me from moving him higher, though.
5. Jim Johnson, Orioles: Johnson had a great year in 2012, and I think he's better than most people think. That said, he doesn't strike guys out. I really considered moving him above Hanrahan, but I decided not to based on that. Honestly, though, the AL East is strong in closers.
Combined with the starting rotation, I'm fairly comfortable saying the Yankees and Rays are neck and neck for best pitching in the AL East, and I give the slight edge to the Yankees. I would also not be surprised at all if the Blue Jays ended the year with the best pitching; they have the talent. The Red Sox are a step behind but still have solid pitching. The Orioles have a decent bullpen but a lot of starters that probably overachieved last year; we'll see if I'm wrong about that, but I'd rank them last for now.
The hitting is likely a different story, so let's start ranking that. I'm going by CBSSports projected lineups as of a couple days ago, if I'm wrong about who is playing the position I'll correct it.
First Base:
1. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: First base is really ugly in the AL East, with Encarnacion being the only good one here. I don't think he quite repeats last year, but he's far and away the best first baseman in the division. I'd rank him higher even if Teixeira returns fairly quickly and shows no ill effects.
2. Mike Napoli, Red Sox: I'm a Napoli fan but the injury issue is a problem. Still, I think he's better than the other options here.
3. Chris Davis, Orioles: Chris Davis is not an amazing hitter. His average is at best acceptable and he doesn't get on base a ton. He does, however, hit home runs, and that alone puts him third on the list. I also think last years numbers were not that out of the ordinary and are repeatable for him.
4. Lyle Overbay/Kevin Youkilis, Yankees: I put both since the current word is to expect a platoon, with Youkilis playing first against lefties and Overbay against righties. I'll cover Youkilis more when we get to third base. Overbay is what he is; he's not very good at this stage, but he'll play some solid defense, and perhaps Yankee Stadium plus sitting more against lefties will help his overall numbers.
5. James Loney, Rays: Loney is more or less the same as Overbay, I just think Overbay has a bit more upside, and Loney is coming off a worse year.
Second Base:
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: A legitimate MVP candidate. I'm undecided whether he'll take a bit of a hit this year due to a worse lineup around him (less chances to drive in runners, less chances of being driven in) or if he'll do just as well if not better by getting his numbers with RiSP up (he's done it in the past, so bad luck may have been involved). Either way he's the best second baseman in the division.
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: The clear #2 second baseman after Cano. A great player who had a bit of an off year, but I expect him to keep doing what he does.
3. Kelly Johnson, Rays: I'm not a Kelly Johnson fan, at all, and I debated putting Bonifacio higher, but Johnson has a lot more power and will still steal you 10-15 bases. He won't get on base much and won't come anywhere close to even Pedroia's power, let alone Cano, but he's not worthless.
4. Emilio Bonifacio, Blue Jays: I don't really like Bonifacio, but he's going to give the Jays a lot of steals with an okay (not great, but not below .300 either) OBP. Nothing special but I'd still put him here.
5. Brian Roberts, Orioles: I REALLY wanted to rank Roberts higher, but he hasn't had anywhere in the ballpark of a full seasons stats since 2009. If you add up 2010-2012, you STILL don't get a full seasons stats, and when he's actually managed to play the last two years, he's been awful. He has the upside to be the #3 second baseman in the division, but he really has to stay healthy and actually show something before I can move him higher.
That's all for now, but I'll post more later.
Comparing the AL East teams
After constantly hearing how the Yankees are sure to finish dead last, I thought I'd compare the 5 AL East teams, position by position, to try to get a better idea of just how the Yankees line up, position by position, with the other teams in the division. The Rules: Anyone on the DL to start the season is not counted unless they are expected back very soon. Hence, Hughes will be considered as the #4 starter, but Teixeira will not be considered as the first baseman.
#1 Starter:
1. David Price, Rays: Probably the best starter in the division. Both Cy Young winners are in the AL East now, but Price is the one I see coming closer to repeating.
2. CC Sabathia, Yankees: Sabathia's durability finally showed some cracks last year, but even with injuries and missing 5-6 starts, he still threw 200 innings with an ERA in the low 3's.
3. RA Dickey, Blue Jays: The NL Cy Young winner had a fantastic year and I think, to some extent, it was for real. However, I just can't see him repeating that, and knuckleball or no, you're talking about a 38 year old moving to the American League. I think some people don't realize how good he was in 2010 and 2011...he's not a one year wonder. However, that strikeout rate that helped propel him to the Cy Young is way higher than anything he's done before. He could move up this list, but I can't reasonably put him above Price or Sabathia.
4. Jon Lester, Red Sox: Lester was not good at all last season, the story of a lot of Red Sox players. Lester's strikeout rate and home runs allowed have been trending in the wrong direction for years, but his biggest issue last year seemed to be a ton more hits falling in. I'm not so sure he returns to his former low 3 ERA self, but I do expect him to be much better than last year.
5. Jason Hammel, Orioles: The real question with Hammel is did he get very lucky last year, or did he figure something out? Here's a guy with a career ERA (AFTER last season) of 4.78. Before last year, he only managed to be even an average pitcher one time. His 2012 season was excellent, with a much better strikeout rate, many less hits allowed, and less home runs allowed than ever before. It is worth pointing out he had been in Colorado from 2009-2011. Do I think he's as good as he was last year, no. Do I think he's better than he was prior to 2012? I do, but I can't reasonably put him anywhere but fifth.
#2 Starter:
1. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees: I'm a big fan of Kuroda, and was thrilled when the Yankees signed him. He gave the Yankees a great season, and I feel comfortable putting him at the top of this list. The one real concern is his age, but he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down yet.
2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: Look, I'm not going to sit here and say Hellickson isn't for real. I thought that after his 36 innings in 2010. I thought that after he put up an ERA under 3 in 2011. Now, though, after 2 years and 402 career innings with an ERA of 3.06, at some point we have to acknowledge that he has some ability to "outpitch" his mediocre hit, walk, strikeout, and home run rates. Part of that is undoubtedly his home ballpark and the defense behind him, but he does still have a 3.32 ERA on the road in his career. However, because of those bad rates, I feel like, even if he does have a strong defense, a good home ballpark, and some ability to control his hits, he's walking a tightrope that sooner or later he'll fall off of.
3. Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays: Now here's a guy who finally may have put it together. His strikeout rate plummeted (although it's still strong), but perhaps that was actually to his benefit. His walk rate has been improving for years now. I don't feel comfortable putting him any higher than 3 when we're talking about 124 innings one year, but I do think it's possible he's a legitimate #2 starter.
4. Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles: Chen had a decent rookie season. His home run rate was too high, but everything else was pretty solid. I'm not sure he'll repeat it, but I'm interested to see how he does this year.
5. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: I'm not really a big Buchholz fan. His strikeout rate isn't very good, he has trouble staying healthy, his home run rate is mediocre to bad...he had some success in 2010 and 2011, but a lot of that seemed to be luck. I originally had him above Chen, but I ended up moving him down because Chen's walk rate was better than Buchholz has ever had, and his strikeout rate was better than Buchholz has had since 2008, not to mention he immediately threw more innings than Buchholz has ever managed. He could move up in the list, but I just don't trust him.
#3 Starter:
1. Matt Moore, Rays: This was one of the tougher ones. I considered Pettitte here, but his injury last year, plus the defense behind him, made me move Moore to the first spot. I don't know that Moore will be as amazing as he's been hyped to be in the past, but I think he's going to be a very solid starter.
2. Andy Pettitte, Yankees: It's somewhat odd that after 4 straight years of ERAs over 4, Andy's last 200 innings, spread out over 3 years (with him not even playing in 2011) have seen an ERA barely above 3.00. He's limited his hits but otherwise hasn't done much else, which could suggest some luck is involved. Still, he's a proven guy who, when healthy, has been great since 2009. Unfortunately, at his age and coming off an injury, he does have to be considered a potential injury risk.
3. Ryan Dempster, Red Sox: I debated moving Dempster past Pettitte, based mainly on having less of an injury history (although he did have an issue last year, but it wasn't as bad as Pettitte's). I hesitated because of how bad he was with the Rangers last year (albeit in a small sample size). After an entire career in the NL, it might take him longer to adapt to the American League. I think his performance in the end will be somewhere in between his 2011 and 2012 numbers.
4. Mark Buehrle, Blue Jays: First off, I based the starters on who the teams have chosen to start in order...the Jays have Buehrle listed as their #3, so that's who goes here. I'm not a Buehrle guy at all. He's had plenty of success in his career, clearly, and he's a good bet to throw 200 innings, but he'll have a poor strikeout rate and a ton of hits allowed, and he doesn't actually have an incredibly low home run rate. He doesn't walk guys and he's durable, but that's about it.
5. Miguel Gonzalez, Orioles: Another Oriole who I think got very lucky last year. He's not a terrible pitcher and I could see him being better than Buehrle, but until he throws more than 105 innings, I can't put him any higher.
#4 Starter:
1. Josh Johnson, Blue Jays: I actually think he'll be much better than Mark Buehrle, but hey, he's listed as their #4 starter, so this is where he goes. The one issue with Josh Johnson is, obviously, health. However, while he does seem to be good for an injury every year, he's been a LITTLE more durable than people think. He's thrown 180+ innings 3 out of the past 4 years...not great, but certainly not the 100 innings or less I suspect most people think he puts up every year. His upside is clearly the highest of the #4 guys (and the #3 guys for that matter, except for perhaps Matt Moore). I think he's for real and I think he stays relatively healthy...he's the #1 here by a lot.
2. Phil Hughes, Yankees: I actually would have put Hughes lower, because while I've always been a big Hughes fan and rooted for him to succeed, he just has never quite put it all together. That said, the 180-190 innings with a low 4 ERA he gave the Yankees last year and in 2010 (his two mostly healthy years) are better than those ranked below him. He'll start the year on the DL but is already throwing, and is only expected to miss a start or two at most. The home run rate is terrible with Hughes, but the walkrate is solid to strong and he strikes out a good amount of guys. If he can start keeping the ball in the park he could be the Yankees second best starter after CC, but at this point that might require a move to a team with a bigger ballpark.
3. Alex Cobb, Rays: It's tough to determine whether Cobb should have been 2 or 3 here, since we don't have as big a track record, but I do like Cobb. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outpitched Hughes this year. That said, I don't think we're talking about a future ace here. He's a solid middle of the rotation guy.
4. Felix Doubront, Red Sox: Doubront had a great strikeout rate last year, but the bottom line is he gives up too many hits and walks way too many guys with a mediocre to bad home run rate. I could see him having a solid year if he can get the walks down to where they were in the minor leagues, but I can't place him any higher until we see something out of him.
5. Jake Arrieta, Orioles: Arrieta actually had really solid numbers last year...if you look at his strikeout to walk rate (3.11). Unfortunately, he also had a 6.20 ERA, allowed way too many hits, and enters the year with a career 5.33 ERA. There's only so much a great strikeout to walk rate can do for you until you start showing some results. I might have considered him higher if he had an ERA in, say, the mid 4's, but 6.20? Can't do it.
#5 Starter:
1. Chris Tillman, Orioles: Hey, the Orioles are out of the basement! First off, this was probably the toughest group to pick. This is less a thumbs up for Tillman and more an indictment of the group as a whole. That said, I do think Tillman is headed in the right direction. Like practically every Oriole starter, I don't expect a repeat of 2012, but I also think he'll be much better than he was from 2009-2011. The walk rate may go back up (or perhaps he figured something out), and he'll probably give up more hits, but I don't think you'll see a hit rate well over 10 per 9 again.
2. Ivan Nova, Yankees: This could actually be David Phelps instead, once Hughes comes back, but my guess is Nova gets the initial shot. I actually like Phelps a bit better, but whatever. Nova had a bad 2012 after a strong 2011, but he actually seemed to make some strides in his strikeout rate. His biggest problem last year was home runs, but this is a guy with a career minor league home run rate of 0.6 per 9, with a very strong home run rate in 2011 as well. I'm not sure the strikeout rate is real, but I don't believe last years home run rate was either, so I think he'll be better. I've never been a Nova fan, but he could be a decent #5 starter.
3. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays: Mostly based on a decent strikeout rate, because he doesn't have much else going for him. If not for Lackey's health issues he wouldn't even be this high.
4. John Lackey, Red Sox: He has the potential to be the highest in this group, but there are serious problems here. He's had a terrible ERA in his Red Sox career and is coming off missing an entire season. In one way he's almost the anti Josh Johnson in terms of reputation, as prior to 2011 I recall him having a reputation of being a durable guy, but actually looking at it, he's missed time in 4 of his last 5 seasons (including all of last year) and the one time he actually threw 200 innings during that span, they were mediocre. He's gotta come back and show something before I can move him higher.
5. The Artist Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona (AKA Roberto Hernandez), Rays: So let me get this straight, here. The Yankees lose a couple guys to free agency and a couple to injury, and it's the end of the world. The Rays lose their centerfielder and their second best starter who pitched as well as an ace at times, replacing the latter with FAUSTO CARMONA, and nobody says a word? Rays win a billion games and easily destroy the Yankees? Oh, okay. Carmona sucks. He'll get a slight boost from a strong defense but he's bad.
The Overall Rotations:
1. Yankees: This was VERY close with the Rays, and I nearly gave the Rays the edge because of their better defense (I'm not including home ballpark because I'm not really trying to compare who pitches in a better park here, the Yankee opponents will have to pitch in Yankee Stadium too, and the Rays opponents will pitch at their home park as well. Defense is different though, it's team specific). The Yankees have their ace in Sabathia, two very solid starters in Kuroda and Pettitte, and a few high upside guys in Hughes and Nova with a solid #6 in Phelps. I give them the slight edge.
2. Rays: The Rays pitchers have a great defense behind them, the best pitcher in the AL East, one of the highest upside guys in the AL East, and a couple of solid guys who benefit from that defense. They also have Fausto Carmona. So they're #2.
3. Blue Jays: The Jays made some great moves to improve their staff, and I would not be surprised if they ranked #1. Johnson isn't quite as horribly injury prone as some think (albeit not durable), Dickey isn't the one year wonder a lot of people think, and Morrow could realistically have made some strides. There are just so many question marks in every single guy in that rotation though that I can't reasonably put them above the Yankees or Rays.
4. Red Sox: I definitely think we'll see better seasons from Lester and Buchholz this year, and a healthy Lackey, even if he's not good, could at least keep the Red Sox from running out terrible pitchers as they were forced to do in September 2011. In the end though, they just don't have the depth or the upside of the three rotations above them.
5. Orioles: Their rotation is really not very good. They could get some help from the minors, but they had a ton of starters get ridiculously lucky last year, and the only one I think even has a chance of repeating what he did is Chen (and he was solid, not dominant). Not a fan at all.
That's it for tonight, next time I'll look at the bullpen and maybe the offenses as well.
#1 Starter:
1. David Price, Rays: Probably the best starter in the division. Both Cy Young winners are in the AL East now, but Price is the one I see coming closer to repeating.
2. CC Sabathia, Yankees: Sabathia's durability finally showed some cracks last year, but even with injuries and missing 5-6 starts, he still threw 200 innings with an ERA in the low 3's.
3. RA Dickey, Blue Jays: The NL Cy Young winner had a fantastic year and I think, to some extent, it was for real. However, I just can't see him repeating that, and knuckleball or no, you're talking about a 38 year old moving to the American League. I think some people don't realize how good he was in 2010 and 2011...he's not a one year wonder. However, that strikeout rate that helped propel him to the Cy Young is way higher than anything he's done before. He could move up this list, but I can't reasonably put him above Price or Sabathia.
4. Jon Lester, Red Sox: Lester was not good at all last season, the story of a lot of Red Sox players. Lester's strikeout rate and home runs allowed have been trending in the wrong direction for years, but his biggest issue last year seemed to be a ton more hits falling in. I'm not so sure he returns to his former low 3 ERA self, but I do expect him to be much better than last year.
5. Jason Hammel, Orioles: The real question with Hammel is did he get very lucky last year, or did he figure something out? Here's a guy with a career ERA (AFTER last season) of 4.78. Before last year, he only managed to be even an average pitcher one time. His 2012 season was excellent, with a much better strikeout rate, many less hits allowed, and less home runs allowed than ever before. It is worth pointing out he had been in Colorado from 2009-2011. Do I think he's as good as he was last year, no. Do I think he's better than he was prior to 2012? I do, but I can't reasonably put him anywhere but fifth.
#2 Starter:
1. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees: I'm a big fan of Kuroda, and was thrilled when the Yankees signed him. He gave the Yankees a great season, and I feel comfortable putting him at the top of this list. The one real concern is his age, but he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down yet.
2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: Look, I'm not going to sit here and say Hellickson isn't for real. I thought that after his 36 innings in 2010. I thought that after he put up an ERA under 3 in 2011. Now, though, after 2 years and 402 career innings with an ERA of 3.06, at some point we have to acknowledge that he has some ability to "outpitch" his mediocre hit, walk, strikeout, and home run rates. Part of that is undoubtedly his home ballpark and the defense behind him, but he does still have a 3.32 ERA on the road in his career. However, because of those bad rates, I feel like, even if he does have a strong defense, a good home ballpark, and some ability to control his hits, he's walking a tightrope that sooner or later he'll fall off of.
3. Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays: Now here's a guy who finally may have put it together. His strikeout rate plummeted (although it's still strong), but perhaps that was actually to his benefit. His walk rate has been improving for years now. I don't feel comfortable putting him any higher than 3 when we're talking about 124 innings one year, but I do think it's possible he's a legitimate #2 starter.
4. Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles: Chen had a decent rookie season. His home run rate was too high, but everything else was pretty solid. I'm not sure he'll repeat it, but I'm interested to see how he does this year.
5. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: I'm not really a big Buchholz fan. His strikeout rate isn't very good, he has trouble staying healthy, his home run rate is mediocre to bad...he had some success in 2010 and 2011, but a lot of that seemed to be luck. I originally had him above Chen, but I ended up moving him down because Chen's walk rate was better than Buchholz has ever had, and his strikeout rate was better than Buchholz has had since 2008, not to mention he immediately threw more innings than Buchholz has ever managed. He could move up in the list, but I just don't trust him.
#3 Starter:
1. Matt Moore, Rays: This was one of the tougher ones. I considered Pettitte here, but his injury last year, plus the defense behind him, made me move Moore to the first spot. I don't know that Moore will be as amazing as he's been hyped to be in the past, but I think he's going to be a very solid starter.
2. Andy Pettitte, Yankees: It's somewhat odd that after 4 straight years of ERAs over 4, Andy's last 200 innings, spread out over 3 years (with him not even playing in 2011) have seen an ERA barely above 3.00. He's limited his hits but otherwise hasn't done much else, which could suggest some luck is involved. Still, he's a proven guy who, when healthy, has been great since 2009. Unfortunately, at his age and coming off an injury, he does have to be considered a potential injury risk.
3. Ryan Dempster, Red Sox: I debated moving Dempster past Pettitte, based mainly on having less of an injury history (although he did have an issue last year, but it wasn't as bad as Pettitte's). I hesitated because of how bad he was with the Rangers last year (albeit in a small sample size). After an entire career in the NL, it might take him longer to adapt to the American League. I think his performance in the end will be somewhere in between his 2011 and 2012 numbers.
4. Mark Buehrle, Blue Jays: First off, I based the starters on who the teams have chosen to start in order...the Jays have Buehrle listed as their #3, so that's who goes here. I'm not a Buehrle guy at all. He's had plenty of success in his career, clearly, and he's a good bet to throw 200 innings, but he'll have a poor strikeout rate and a ton of hits allowed, and he doesn't actually have an incredibly low home run rate. He doesn't walk guys and he's durable, but that's about it.
5. Miguel Gonzalez, Orioles: Another Oriole who I think got very lucky last year. He's not a terrible pitcher and I could see him being better than Buehrle, but until he throws more than 105 innings, I can't put him any higher.
#4 Starter:
1. Josh Johnson, Blue Jays: I actually think he'll be much better than Mark Buehrle, but hey, he's listed as their #4 starter, so this is where he goes. The one issue with Josh Johnson is, obviously, health. However, while he does seem to be good for an injury every year, he's been a LITTLE more durable than people think. He's thrown 180+ innings 3 out of the past 4 years...not great, but certainly not the 100 innings or less I suspect most people think he puts up every year. His upside is clearly the highest of the #4 guys (and the #3 guys for that matter, except for perhaps Matt Moore). I think he's for real and I think he stays relatively healthy...he's the #1 here by a lot.
2. Phil Hughes, Yankees: I actually would have put Hughes lower, because while I've always been a big Hughes fan and rooted for him to succeed, he just has never quite put it all together. That said, the 180-190 innings with a low 4 ERA he gave the Yankees last year and in 2010 (his two mostly healthy years) are better than those ranked below him. He'll start the year on the DL but is already throwing, and is only expected to miss a start or two at most. The home run rate is terrible with Hughes, but the walkrate is solid to strong and he strikes out a good amount of guys. If he can start keeping the ball in the park he could be the Yankees second best starter after CC, but at this point that might require a move to a team with a bigger ballpark.
3. Alex Cobb, Rays: It's tough to determine whether Cobb should have been 2 or 3 here, since we don't have as big a track record, but I do like Cobb. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outpitched Hughes this year. That said, I don't think we're talking about a future ace here. He's a solid middle of the rotation guy.
4. Felix Doubront, Red Sox: Doubront had a great strikeout rate last year, but the bottom line is he gives up too many hits and walks way too many guys with a mediocre to bad home run rate. I could see him having a solid year if he can get the walks down to where they were in the minor leagues, but I can't place him any higher until we see something out of him.
5. Jake Arrieta, Orioles: Arrieta actually had really solid numbers last year...if you look at his strikeout to walk rate (3.11). Unfortunately, he also had a 6.20 ERA, allowed way too many hits, and enters the year with a career 5.33 ERA. There's only so much a great strikeout to walk rate can do for you until you start showing some results. I might have considered him higher if he had an ERA in, say, the mid 4's, but 6.20? Can't do it.
#5 Starter:
1. Chris Tillman, Orioles: Hey, the Orioles are out of the basement! First off, this was probably the toughest group to pick. This is less a thumbs up for Tillman and more an indictment of the group as a whole. That said, I do think Tillman is headed in the right direction. Like practically every Oriole starter, I don't expect a repeat of 2012, but I also think he'll be much better than he was from 2009-2011. The walk rate may go back up (or perhaps he figured something out), and he'll probably give up more hits, but I don't think you'll see a hit rate well over 10 per 9 again.
2. Ivan Nova, Yankees: This could actually be David Phelps instead, once Hughes comes back, but my guess is Nova gets the initial shot. I actually like Phelps a bit better, but whatever. Nova had a bad 2012 after a strong 2011, but he actually seemed to make some strides in his strikeout rate. His biggest problem last year was home runs, but this is a guy with a career minor league home run rate of 0.6 per 9, with a very strong home run rate in 2011 as well. I'm not sure the strikeout rate is real, but I don't believe last years home run rate was either, so I think he'll be better. I've never been a Nova fan, but he could be a decent #5 starter.
3. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays: Mostly based on a decent strikeout rate, because he doesn't have much else going for him. If not for Lackey's health issues he wouldn't even be this high.
4. John Lackey, Red Sox: He has the potential to be the highest in this group, but there are serious problems here. He's had a terrible ERA in his Red Sox career and is coming off missing an entire season. In one way he's almost the anti Josh Johnson in terms of reputation, as prior to 2011 I recall him having a reputation of being a durable guy, but actually looking at it, he's missed time in 4 of his last 5 seasons (including all of last year) and the one time he actually threw 200 innings during that span, they were mediocre. He's gotta come back and show something before I can move him higher.
5. The Artist Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona (AKA Roberto Hernandez), Rays: So let me get this straight, here. The Yankees lose a couple guys to free agency and a couple to injury, and it's the end of the world. The Rays lose their centerfielder and their second best starter who pitched as well as an ace at times, replacing the latter with FAUSTO CARMONA, and nobody says a word? Rays win a billion games and easily destroy the Yankees? Oh, okay. Carmona sucks. He'll get a slight boost from a strong defense but he's bad.
The Overall Rotations:
1. Yankees: This was VERY close with the Rays, and I nearly gave the Rays the edge because of their better defense (I'm not including home ballpark because I'm not really trying to compare who pitches in a better park here, the Yankee opponents will have to pitch in Yankee Stadium too, and the Rays opponents will pitch at their home park as well. Defense is different though, it's team specific). The Yankees have their ace in Sabathia, two very solid starters in Kuroda and Pettitte, and a few high upside guys in Hughes and Nova with a solid #6 in Phelps. I give them the slight edge.
2. Rays: The Rays pitchers have a great defense behind them, the best pitcher in the AL East, one of the highest upside guys in the AL East, and a couple of solid guys who benefit from that defense. They also have Fausto Carmona. So they're #2.
3. Blue Jays: The Jays made some great moves to improve their staff, and I would not be surprised if they ranked #1. Johnson isn't quite as horribly injury prone as some think (albeit not durable), Dickey isn't the one year wonder a lot of people think, and Morrow could realistically have made some strides. There are just so many question marks in every single guy in that rotation though that I can't reasonably put them above the Yankees or Rays.
4. Red Sox: I definitely think we'll see better seasons from Lester and Buchholz this year, and a healthy Lackey, even if he's not good, could at least keep the Red Sox from running out terrible pitchers as they were forced to do in September 2011. In the end though, they just don't have the depth or the upside of the three rotations above them.
5. Orioles: Their rotation is really not very good. They could get some help from the minors, but they had a ton of starters get ridiculously lucky last year, and the only one I think even has a chance of repeating what he did is Chen (and he was solid, not dominant). Not a fan at all.
That's it for tonight, next time I'll look at the bullpen and maybe the offenses as well.
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