The Posting System

It's now being reported that talks between the Boston Red Sox and Daisuke Matsuzaka have fallen apart, only a few days before the deadline to sign him. The source complains (which probably means the Red Sox leaked it...I know, I know, I'm as shocked as any of you) that Boras is unwilling to negotiate and "has no interest in getting around the flaws in the posting system".

In actuality the source isn't really wrong. The system is pretty flawed, and now Major League Baseball knows it. From everything rumored, Boston wants to sign Matsuzaka for something in the ballpark of 5 years/50 million (maybe a little less, maybe slightly more) while Boras expects 15-16 million. That's where the problems in the posting system come into play. Defenders of Boston in this case will point out that they already had to bid $51.1 million to even talk to the guy. Detractors will point out that 10 million is what #4 and 5 starters are being paid.

Clearly, Matsuzaka has been touted as an ace pitcher. Boston sees him as an ace, or at worst a #2 starter. They wouldn't have bid $51.1 million if they didn't. And in their mind, offering 50 million for 5 years means they're paying him $101.1 million over 5 years. For a guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors, that's insane. And yet, he wouldn't even see over half that money (not even including Boras' cut). Is that really fair?

The Yankees may be in a similar situation with Igawa, although it is slightly different there. Igawa isn't a free agent in 2008...Matsuzaka would be if he doesn't sign this contract. Igawa may get paid less than he should, but it would be during a time period he'd otherwise be pitching in Japan, as opposed to a time when he could be a free agent. Also, Igawa will be signed as a #5 starter/possible long reliever, not as an ace.

Personally, I think Matsuzaka, based on his stuff and where he will be expected to pitch in the rotation, deserves a lot closer to 15-16 million. Realistically though, thanks to the posting money, that's just not reasonable. However, I find it equally unreasonable to expect your ace starter to earn Ted Lilly money. Sure, that happens with American players (I'm looking at you, Johan Santana...imagine how much he'd make in free agency right now), but at least with them they can simply say "Nope" and go make a deal anywhere else they feel like. Japanese players are virtual slaves to the organization that wins the posting bid. They can either sign a crappy contract that isn't remotely comparable to players of similar ability, or they can refuse and return to Japan, where they didn't want to be pitching in the first place, with a fan base that likely will not respect their decision to "hold out for more cash".

And by the way, can anyone imagine how different baseball would be today if Dominican players weren't allowed to come to the United States and play unless their current team essentially sold them to whatever American team bids the highest? No free agency for David Ortiz, or Manny Ramirez, or Alfonso Soriano, or Albert Pujols, or Miguel Tejada, or (insert name of any of the many excellent Dominican players playing in Major League Baseball right now) . They wouldn't have even made it to the US until they were in their mid to late 20s, and then would have small contracts until they were at an age where they're declining.

I understand why the posting system came into existence, and can't entirely disagree with the need for some kind of rules to be in effect to prevent Japanese players from simply "retiring" and walking out of a contract in order to sign with a US team. But the way it's designed now isn't working either. Unless you think it's fair that if Daisuke Matsuzaka wants to come play in the United States for the next five years, he has to take less money than Gil Meche while dealing with higher expectations than anyone save A-Rod. I sure don't.

Here's an interesting little article about the relationship between Major League Baseball and the Dominican Republic: http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1028-25.htm