LOCKS
Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Jose Molina, Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Wilson Betemit
The first 17 guys are fairly obvious and don't really need any explanation. The only one I want to add anything to is Betemit. Cashman seemed to imply there was going to be a race for the 1st base spot, which Betemit will likely be a part of...however, it's a certainty that even if someone else ends up as the full time first baseman (as opposed to the platoon that currently seems likely), Betemit will be on the team in some role.
NEAR LOCKS
These guys are almost certainly going to be on the team, but there's just enough of a question mark that I didn't want to include them above.
Shelley Duncan: Assuming health, Shelley's almost certain to make the team. Currently, it seems that he'll end up as part of a first base platoon with Wilson Betemit...his ability to also play the outfield in an emergency is helpful as well. However, if someone else (Juan Miranda for example) manages to win the first base job, Duncan isn't an absolute lock (like Betemit is) to be on the 25 man in some way. It's extremely likely Duncan breaks camp with the team, but you never know.
Joba Chamberlain: Again, almost certain that Joba enters the 2008 season on the major league team in some capacity, either as a reliever or a starter. However, it's not absolutely out of the question that, in an attempt to have him ease back into the starters role, to work on the changeup, and to keep his innings down, that the Yankees could send him down to AAA for a month to start the season. At the end of 2007 I thought this was the best option, but the Yankees seem to imply that he will definitely be on the team in some capacity right from day one. However, just in case, I include him here.
Mike Mussina: I include him here only because of that slight possibility he looks so god awful in spring training, while Joba and Kennedy look so dominant, that the Yankees just cut their losses. Extremely, extremely unlikely, but there it is.
That gives us 20 guys. 12 hitters, 8 pitchers (including 5 starters). So how about those other 5 spots?
THE OTHER SPOTS
Ian Kennedy: This is tough to call. The thing is, Kennedy's ready. He's probably even more ready than Joba in terms of needing less development (Joba's changeup could use some work). Plus he threw more innings than Joba this past season, so he's more capable than him (and probably even Hughes) to pitch a full season. He also doesn't have the stuff of either Hughes or Joba, and he's not a potential ace. Since Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes are all definite locks for the rotation, and Mussina is almost certainly there too, it depends on what the Yankees do with Joba. If Joba starts the year in the bullpen to keep his innings down, then it's a no brainer that Kennedy makes the team. If the Yankees change their mind and send Joba to AAA to start the season, Kennedy makes the team. But if Joba does begin the year as a starter, as the Yankees keep saying, then I honestly don't know. It just seems a waste to make Kennedy a reliever, but he really doesn't seem to have much to do in the minors. My guess is Kennedy makes the team in some way, but he may get shoved into the spot starter/long relief role until someone falters, which I don't think is a great idea.
Beyond Ian, the Yankees will carry at least one more hitter. This one depends on a lot of factors, though. The possibilities, going by the 40 man roster and the 26 non roster invitees:
Juan Miranda: He would make the team as the first baseman, if he made it at all. I doubt he does. I could definitely see Miranda getting a mid season callup if he does well, but I doubt he starts the year in the majors. However, Cashman hinted that he was in the mix for the first base job, so he should be brought up.
Jason Lane: He's another candidate for the first base job. I just don't see it happening, though. He hasn't played much first base, and I don't see him beating out Duncan or Betemit. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, Lane would probably make it in his spot, but otherwise, I doubt it.
Bernie Castro: A candidate for the utility job, if Betemit is the first baseman (or a major part of a platoon). Very unlikely, really only played second base in the past. But he was invited, so there you are.
Cody Ransom: Another non roster invitee and candidate for the utility job. He's got a better shot than Castro, but I still think it's unlikely.
Nick Green: One of the two major candidates for the utility job, I suspect. He's done this before, and it's probably between him and Alberto Gonzalez.
Alberto Gonzalez: As mentioned, it may be between him and Green for the utility job. Neither guy has shown much hitting wise, and both are good defensively. The question is, do you want to go for the younger guy with more theoretical potential (since we already know what we'll get from Green)? Or do you want Gonzalez to stay in AAA and see if he can get any better? The problem is he really isnt likely to get many at bats as a utility infielder for the Yankees, especially since there are three first baseman already (Duncan, Betemit, Giambi). All of his at bats would have to come from replacing Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano, three guys who rarely miss games and are too important to the offense to afford them missing many games. To me, it depends on how you view Gonzalez. If you think he can get better, leave him in AAA. If you think what he is now is what you're going to get, give him a shot at the majors.
So based on everything above, that gives us a theoretical opening day roster of:
1. Jorge Posada
2. Robinson Cano
3. Derek Jeter
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Johnny Damon
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Shelley Duncan
11. Jason Giambi
12. Jose Molina
13. Alberto Gonzalez/Nick Green
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Phil Hughes
17. Joba Chamberlain
18. Mike Mussina
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Kyle Farnsworth
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Ian Kennedy (in some role)
I'd say except for the possibility of Kennedy opening the season in AAA, and the fact that Spring Training may determine whether Gonzalez or Green breaks camp with the major league team, those 22 are very likely.
In my next post I'll look at the pitching possibilities for the final three bullpen spots.
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