Haven't had much to talk about for a while, but a few days ago the Yankees finally broke their offseason silence and made some big moves.
1. Yankees sign Hiroki Kuroda
May as well start with the more "basic" signing first. I love this move. Is Kuroda an ace? No. He is, however, a good pitcher who should give the Yankees 200ish innings with an ERA around 4 or lower. He's got good stuff and isn't simply a product of the NL West; he has good road numbers, complete with a solid strikeout rate and an elite walk rate. The only real question I'd have is with his home runs, which have fluctuated in his four years stateside. He had a high home run rate in 2011; however, it was actually higher on the road than at home, so it may have been a fluke. In any case, good signing, especially since it won't effect the team past this year anyway.
2. Yankees trade Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos
Whew, this was a crazy trade. When I first saw that the Mariners were finalizing a deal for a young impact bat, I immediately wondered if it could be Montero, and sure enough...
My last posts dealt with the idea of trading Montero. While I did mention Pineda as someone I would have considered trading Montero for, I didn't expect it to actually happen, even if it does make some sense for both teams. If the Yankees were going to trade Montero, though, this is the type of player they should have targeted...a young, high upside pitcher who has already pitched very well in the majors (but still has 5 years to go to reach free agency).
First off, what doesn't this mean? You can already see some of the spin that this means such and such for the future of the team, or how the Yankees must have been down on Montero. I do think it's entirely possible (especially given how September went) that the Yankees were more down on Montero the catcher than they were willing to let on. However, I think that's about the only thing it says. A lot of people have declared this means the Yankees didn't want a DH because A-Rod's going to be moved there in the next couple of years. However, that assumes the Yankees had no intention of ever keeping Montero, and I don't buy that for a second. There was never any indication they were interested in including him for any other pitchers traded...in fact, I think Pineda may have been one of the only possible pitchers he could have been traded for. Felix is unavailable and so is nearly every other ace or #2 type starter that it would have been reasonable to trade Montero for. If the Mariners had (very realistically) decided not to trade Pineda, I firmly believe Jesus Montero would be a Yankee next season and going forward. This trade was made because Pineda became available, not because the Yankees were trying to get rid of Montero.
Could this mean more DH time in the future for Alex Rodriguez? Absolutely. There's no immediate candidate to replace Montero at DH, now or in the future (more on that in another post in the next few days). However, does this mean they made the trade because they're expecting A-Rod to DH a ton soon? No, I don't believe that. The reasoning I brought up a couple months ago still stands.
So, what do I think about the trade? I'm not entirely sure. I'm tentatively in favor of it. I was a huge fan of Montero and didn't want him traded except for very specific circumstances...this was potentially one of them. If Montero is going to be a full time DH, that's less valuable than catching full time. Still valuable, but less so. Meanwhile, this gives the Yankees a #2 starter that is under team control for the next 5 years, who has a chance to become an ace. The possibility of getting Cole Hamels next year hasn't been eliminated either, although it seems less likely now. Imagine a top 3 of Sabathia/Hamels/Pineda? That's an insane top three that would make the Yankees the immediate favorites in any postseason series they're in. Of course, if the Yankees are serious about getting payroll under 189 million by 2014, then Hamels is almost certainly not possible. Regardless, this gives the Yankees more options. I hate to see Montero go, but if you're going to move him, this is the deal to do it in.
The "throw ins" are interesting as well. In the short term they clearly favor the Mariners, as Noesi is ready to contribute right now and Campos is years away. However, Campos actually has upside, with most saying he would have been a clear first round pick had he entered the draft this year. This is an interesting addition for the Yankees, brought on, I suspect, by the new CBA. The new CBA could significantly hurt the Yankees in terms of their farm system. They will have much less money that they can spend in the draft without sacrificing first round draft picks, and they're going to be extremely limited in how much they can spend on international free agents. In addition, because they're the Yankees, the team is always contending and rarely is able to trade players to rebuild their farm; the players they trade are usually younger guys traded away to help the major league team. This gives the Yankees a prospect that will fit into their top 10 (likely somewhere in the middle...5-7 or so). Noesi is a nice back end of the rotation/long reliever type, but he's an interchangeable part on this Yankee team. One out of Hughes/Garcia/Burnett seems certain to take the long relief role (I'll cover the 5th starter situation in another post soon), so Noesi was probably headed back to the minors anyway.
Finally, Pineda. I think there are a few legitimate concerns about him, and a few concerns that aren't fair. I've seen a few people bring up the fact that he has had elbow issues in the past. In 2009, he missed a good amount of the season with elbow soreness. However, from what I understand, it was at least somewhat precautionary. Elbow issues of any kind are a bad thing with pitchers, but the fact is he had elbow soreness 2 years and many innings ago and as far as I'm aware has never had the issue again. Besides, it was soreness, not elbow surgery. I'm not too concerned there.
The second concern I've seen raised is the home run rate. First off, let's be clear on this: Pineda is going to give up some home runs. He's a fly ball pitcher and Yankee Stadium has the short porch. That said, I think some of the concern is over the top. One of the reasons Yankee Stadium allows so many home runs is that the Yankees themselves are the best home run hitting team in baseball. That's somewhat of a "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?" argument, but it does have to factor in. Meanwhile, the Mariners are the second worst home run hitting team in the American League (and if Morneau had played a full year, they probably would be worse than the Twins). Again, part of this is due to their park, but the team itself simply has no power. That's only a small part of it though; of course it's easier to hit a home run in Yankee Stadium than it is at Safeco. Pineda, though, oddly enough, had a better home run rate on the road than he did at home. Whether this suggests he got a little lucky on the road or whether it suggests he got a little unlucky at home, I don't know. His minor league home run rate was actually quite good. I suspect the end result for Pineda is going to be a home run rate about what he did last year, or slightly higher. Last year his home run rate was 0.9 per 9 innings, I expect something close to that, perhaps as high as 1 per 9. I don't think he's going to skyrocket up to 1.2 per 9 like some seem to think. Time will tell there, but I'm not too concerned about the home run rate.
The final main complaint is about Pineda's poor second half. It's true that Pineda's second half was worse than his first, in terms of ERA. Some of his other numbers were not that different, though. His K/9 and BB/9 were close to the same, which suggests he may have just gotten unlucky. Also, Pineda went through three terrible starts in a row in mid July...if you take those out, his second half ERA was, I believe, under 4.00, and his overall ERA is closer to 3.00 than 4.00. The reason I mention that is we don't really know why he got knocked around in those three starts. If he just got knocked around for no particular reason, then yes, that's something we may have to see every year. If, however, Pineda had a mechanical issue he needed to work out or a minor injury he didn't disclose, it's not fair to expect starts like that every year. I'd also point out that toward the end of the year, the Mariners were attempting to limit Pineda's innings. He was skipped at least twice, pushed back a day here or there, and taken out after 90 pitches multiple times (even when pitching well). His final start came on 11 days rest and lasted 80 pitches. It's tough to take a lot out of that, when so many pitchers thrive with consistency.
What does Pineda do right? He has a fantastic strikeout rate. Even if it goes down slightly in the AL East (no guarantee, the hitters are certainly better but it doesn't necessarily mean they strike out less), it's still an elite strikeout rate. What is perhaps even more interesting is the excellent walk rate. That's great to see from such a young pitcher with such good stuff.
If Pineda can stay healthy, he should be a strong pitcher for the Yankees for many years. I think Montero is going to be a very good hitter, and it hurts to lose him, but the Yankees have greatly improved their rotation without having to give out an enormous long term contract. Now, they have the option to try to get payroll down or to hand out that big contract to make a "super rotation" comparable to the Phillies. This trade is going to take awhile to fairly judge, though.
Showing posts with label Montero. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Montero. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Monday, October 10, 2011
Should Montero Be Traded?
Yesterday I pointed out how silly the claim of "The Yankees can't keep Montero if he's a DH!" is, and why it would be stupid to trade him for "anything they can get" as some have suggested. However, there's another question...should Montero be traded? A lot of people have this assumption that ace pitchers are always available at all times, but is that actually true? I went through all the teams and pinpointed players I'd even be willing to trade Montero for. Rule #1: If they're going to be a free agent, they obviously don't count. Rule #2: If they have only one year left on their contract, I'm not interested. Montero has too much potential for too little money to justify trading him for a one year rental at this point. While you can make a case for a top, top pitcher (ala Cliff Lee), there aren't any guys of that caliber with one year remaining.
Over in the NL West, the Rockies have nobody I'd be at all interested in. The Diamondbacks only have Ian Kennedy, and he's not worth Montero at this point, even if he did have a great year. The Padres pitchers always scare me because of the Petco factor, and the only guy that even particularly interests me there is Latos, and I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Over on the Giants, there are two pitchers of interest, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Matt Cain is out for me...while I like him, I think he's more of a #2/#3 type pitcher, and he's only signed through 2012. I wouldn't be against trading for him, but not at the cost of Montero. Lincecum could be a different story, he's an ace. His walk rate is a little high but otherwise he'd probably be a top of the rotation guy anywhere. He's under contract for two more seasons. I can't imagine the Giants would ever do it but I'd probably go for that one. With Posey and Belt around and no DH though, it doesn't make much sense for them. The Dodgers have one pitcher I'd jump on, Clayton Kershaw. I'd make that trade in a second, but the Dodgers have even less reason to do that than the Giants. Kershaw is only just becoming eligible for arbitration; he'll be a bargain for years to come. So, from the NL West, we have Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, and neither figures to be at all available.
Over in the NL Central, I don't think there's a single player I'd trade Montero for. Wainwright is coming off an injury, Carpenter is getting old and isn't as dominant (Game 5 of the NLDS aside). The Reds, Astros, and Pirates don't have anyone I'd be particularly interested in. I'd be a bit interested in Garza from the Cubs but certainly wouldn't trade Montero for him. That leaves the Brewers, but Marcum isn't worth Montero, and Greinke has concerns about pitching in New York and would be a free agent after 2012 anyway. That leaves only Gallardo, who is a bit more interesting as he's under contract through 2014, but he allows too many home runs and I just wouldn't trust him enough. So, nobody from the NL Central.
Over in the NL East, the Mets have nobody of interest. The Marlins and Braves both have an interesting pitcher, but they're coming off serious injuries to their arms/shoulders that would immediately stop me in my tracks. Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson could both be aces or definitive #2 starters, but there is no way I'd trade Montero for either under the current circumstances, not until we know they're healthy. Those types of injuries are huge question marks. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, and I'm back and forth on him. On the one hand, he's also coming off a major injury; however, he's actually returned and pitched some, and looked good doing it. He doesn't seem to have lost a step. The question is, are there more injuries in his future? I think I would reluctantly do it; the Nationals never would. The Phillies have three interesting pitchers, but Hamels only has one year remaining, so I wouldn't do that trade. Lee and Halladay I would, but they obviously wouldn't be available. So, from the NL West, you have Lee, Halladay, and Strasburg, and none of them would be available. Seeing a pattern? From the entire NL, not one pitcher worth trading Montero for figures to be available, and I don't mean that we're guessing they probably aren't available, I mean it makes no logical sense at all that they would be.
Moving to the American League, let's start with the AL East. First off, it bears mentioning that it'd be extremely difficult to make any kind of a trade in division. The Red Sox have Lester, but obviously would never make a deal with the Yankees for players of that caliber. The Orioles have nobody interesting. The Rays have a lot of interesting pitchers, however. Price and Moore are both of great interest, although it's extremely doubtful either would be at all available, and certainly not to the Yankees. The realistic guy there is James Shields. I could definitely see James Shields getting traded. The question is, is he worth trading Montero for? My gut is no. If you knew you were getting the James Shields of this year, then of course, but James Shields prior to this year was solid to bad every other year. Before this year you'd never consider trading Montero for him, and I'm not sure anything has really changed right now. Not that the Rays would be at all likely to trade Shields and his three remaining years in division. As for the Blue Jays, the only pitcher of any interest is Ricky Romero, who has a shockingly great contract for the Blue Jays (he's signed cheap through 2015 with a relatively cheap 2016 option). I'm not the biggest Romero fan around but based solely on how good that contract is and how effective he has been in the AL East, you'd have to at least consider it. So for the AL East, you have Lester, Price, Moore, and perhaps Romero, but none of them would figure to be available, and certainly not to the Yankees.
Over in the AL Central, there is essentially one and only one pitcher that jumps out at me, and that's Justin Verlander. The Twins, Indians, Royals, and White Sox don't have anyone that interests me enough to trade Montero. Naturally, especially after the year Verlander had, I'd trade Montero for him, but of course the Tigers wouldn't.
Finally, the AL West. The Rangers have nobody interesting. CJ Wilson is a free agent and nobody else interests me enough to consider trading Montero for them. The A's have a couple interesting players and people have been linking the Yankees to Gio Gonzalez as recently as the trade deadline, but it's not a trade I'd make. The Angels have Weaver, who I might have been interested in, but his desire to stay on the West coast makes that a no go. I like Haren quite a bit and wanted the Yankees to get him last year, but at this point I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Finally, the Mariners. I might do it for Pineda, but the Mariners wouldn't go for that.
Which finally, leaves us with perhaps the only realistic option. Every single player I've said I would trade Montero for is almost certain to not be traded. The guys who could be traded only have one year left on their contracts, or simply aren't good enough (or have too many injuries in recent years) to justify it. However, the one player who could perhaps get traded, the one ace who doesn't play for a team with realistic expectations of contention, who has a large contract the team could want to move, is Felix Hernandez.
There are a few problems with Felix. For starters, he didn't look like his recent self this season. He looked more like the Felix of 2006-2008, who was very good but not really one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his strikeout rate was the best of his career and his walk rate remained low; this could just be a fluke. Also, with three years remaining on his contract, if the Mariners would even entertain offers for him (and it's a big if, albeit realistic unlike many of the other aces in baseball), it would certainly cost more than Montero. Montero would likely have to be included in any offer, since the Mariners badly need offense, but they'd want more. Montero and Nova is a realistic start to the offer, with probably one additional player (likely not Banuelos, as that would probably be too high of a price, but Hughes/Betances would be possibilities). I actually don't think I'd do a deal of Montero/Nova/Hughes for Felix. It would create too many holes on the major league team, and if the Yankees took on Felix' salary (18.5 million in 2012), they'd be right up against the payroll limit Hal and Hank seemingly set last year. While they could probably be convinced to go a little higher, you're not going to fill those multiple empty spots. Everyone is down on Hughes, but he at least fills a starting pitching role on the team; trading him plus Nova opens up two holes while only filling one, in what is a terrible free agent market for pitchers (and that's assuming CC resigns with the Yankees), in addition to opening up a hole at the DH position. Betances and Banuelos have a lot of potential but simply aren't ready. I would, however, probably do a deal that included Montero, one of the starters, and Betances or a lesser prospect. Betances has a world of potential but has to get his walks under control, and it's possible he never does that. I'd hate to do that deal since I don't want to see Montero traded, but realistically you have to give up something of worth.
All that said, in all of Major League Baseball, looking at every single team, I found one single pitcher who I would trade Montero for this offseason that has any shot of realistically being available, and even that's guessing with him; there's no real reason why the Mariners couldn't simply wait til the trade deadline, or really, wait until the trade deadline of the 2014 season to trade him. If he keeps pitching well his value isn't going to go down, and they don't figure to contend next year no matter what they trade Felix for. You could even make the argument they'd be better off waiting and trading him for younger players under team control longer, once they feel they're within a few years on contention. Perhaps they feel that way now, and if so, they could make the trade, but if they don't, I'd keep Montero. The options aren't that good and I'm not at all interested in trading away the best hitting prospect the Yankees have had in a very long time, who killed the ball in September, for a one year wonder or back end starting pitcher.
Over in the NL West, the Rockies have nobody I'd be at all interested in. The Diamondbacks only have Ian Kennedy, and he's not worth Montero at this point, even if he did have a great year. The Padres pitchers always scare me because of the Petco factor, and the only guy that even particularly interests me there is Latos, and I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Over on the Giants, there are two pitchers of interest, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Matt Cain is out for me...while I like him, I think he's more of a #2/#3 type pitcher, and he's only signed through 2012. I wouldn't be against trading for him, but not at the cost of Montero. Lincecum could be a different story, he's an ace. His walk rate is a little high but otherwise he'd probably be a top of the rotation guy anywhere. He's under contract for two more seasons. I can't imagine the Giants would ever do it but I'd probably go for that one. With Posey and Belt around and no DH though, it doesn't make much sense for them. The Dodgers have one pitcher I'd jump on, Clayton Kershaw. I'd make that trade in a second, but the Dodgers have even less reason to do that than the Giants. Kershaw is only just becoming eligible for arbitration; he'll be a bargain for years to come. So, from the NL West, we have Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, and neither figures to be at all available.
Over in the NL Central, I don't think there's a single player I'd trade Montero for. Wainwright is coming off an injury, Carpenter is getting old and isn't as dominant (Game 5 of the NLDS aside). The Reds, Astros, and Pirates don't have anyone I'd be particularly interested in. I'd be a bit interested in Garza from the Cubs but certainly wouldn't trade Montero for him. That leaves the Brewers, but Marcum isn't worth Montero, and Greinke has concerns about pitching in New York and would be a free agent after 2012 anyway. That leaves only Gallardo, who is a bit more interesting as he's under contract through 2014, but he allows too many home runs and I just wouldn't trust him enough. So, nobody from the NL Central.
Over in the NL East, the Mets have nobody of interest. The Marlins and Braves both have an interesting pitcher, but they're coming off serious injuries to their arms/shoulders that would immediately stop me in my tracks. Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson could both be aces or definitive #2 starters, but there is no way I'd trade Montero for either under the current circumstances, not until we know they're healthy. Those types of injuries are huge question marks. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, and I'm back and forth on him. On the one hand, he's also coming off a major injury; however, he's actually returned and pitched some, and looked good doing it. He doesn't seem to have lost a step. The question is, are there more injuries in his future? I think I would reluctantly do it; the Nationals never would. The Phillies have three interesting pitchers, but Hamels only has one year remaining, so I wouldn't do that trade. Lee and Halladay I would, but they obviously wouldn't be available. So, from the NL West, you have Lee, Halladay, and Strasburg, and none of them would be available. Seeing a pattern? From the entire NL, not one pitcher worth trading Montero for figures to be available, and I don't mean that we're guessing they probably aren't available, I mean it makes no logical sense at all that they would be.
Moving to the American League, let's start with the AL East. First off, it bears mentioning that it'd be extremely difficult to make any kind of a trade in division. The Red Sox have Lester, but obviously would never make a deal with the Yankees for players of that caliber. The Orioles have nobody interesting. The Rays have a lot of interesting pitchers, however. Price and Moore are both of great interest, although it's extremely doubtful either would be at all available, and certainly not to the Yankees. The realistic guy there is James Shields. I could definitely see James Shields getting traded. The question is, is he worth trading Montero for? My gut is no. If you knew you were getting the James Shields of this year, then of course, but James Shields prior to this year was solid to bad every other year. Before this year you'd never consider trading Montero for him, and I'm not sure anything has really changed right now. Not that the Rays would be at all likely to trade Shields and his three remaining years in division. As for the Blue Jays, the only pitcher of any interest is Ricky Romero, who has a shockingly great contract for the Blue Jays (he's signed cheap through 2015 with a relatively cheap 2016 option). I'm not the biggest Romero fan around but based solely on how good that contract is and how effective he has been in the AL East, you'd have to at least consider it. So for the AL East, you have Lester, Price, Moore, and perhaps Romero, but none of them would figure to be available, and certainly not to the Yankees.
Over in the AL Central, there is essentially one and only one pitcher that jumps out at me, and that's Justin Verlander. The Twins, Indians, Royals, and White Sox don't have anyone that interests me enough to trade Montero. Naturally, especially after the year Verlander had, I'd trade Montero for him, but of course the Tigers wouldn't.
Finally, the AL West. The Rangers have nobody interesting. CJ Wilson is a free agent and nobody else interests me enough to consider trading Montero for them. The A's have a couple interesting players and people have been linking the Yankees to Gio Gonzalez as recently as the trade deadline, but it's not a trade I'd make. The Angels have Weaver, who I might have been interested in, but his desire to stay on the West coast makes that a no go. I like Haren quite a bit and wanted the Yankees to get him last year, but at this point I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Finally, the Mariners. I might do it for Pineda, but the Mariners wouldn't go for that.
Which finally, leaves us with perhaps the only realistic option. Every single player I've said I would trade Montero for is almost certain to not be traded. The guys who could be traded only have one year left on their contracts, or simply aren't good enough (or have too many injuries in recent years) to justify it. However, the one player who could perhaps get traded, the one ace who doesn't play for a team with realistic expectations of contention, who has a large contract the team could want to move, is Felix Hernandez.
There are a few problems with Felix. For starters, he didn't look like his recent self this season. He looked more like the Felix of 2006-2008, who was very good but not really one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his strikeout rate was the best of his career and his walk rate remained low; this could just be a fluke. Also, with three years remaining on his contract, if the Mariners would even entertain offers for him (and it's a big if, albeit realistic unlike many of the other aces in baseball), it would certainly cost more than Montero. Montero would likely have to be included in any offer, since the Mariners badly need offense, but they'd want more. Montero and Nova is a realistic start to the offer, with probably one additional player (likely not Banuelos, as that would probably be too high of a price, but Hughes/Betances would be possibilities). I actually don't think I'd do a deal of Montero/Nova/Hughes for Felix. It would create too many holes on the major league team, and if the Yankees took on Felix' salary (18.5 million in 2012), they'd be right up against the payroll limit Hal and Hank seemingly set last year. While they could probably be convinced to go a little higher, you're not going to fill those multiple empty spots. Everyone is down on Hughes, but he at least fills a starting pitching role on the team; trading him plus Nova opens up two holes while only filling one, in what is a terrible free agent market for pitchers (and that's assuming CC resigns with the Yankees), in addition to opening up a hole at the DH position. Betances and Banuelos have a lot of potential but simply aren't ready. I would, however, probably do a deal that included Montero, one of the starters, and Betances or a lesser prospect. Betances has a world of potential but has to get his walks under control, and it's possible he never does that. I'd hate to do that deal since I don't want to see Montero traded, but realistically you have to give up something of worth.
All that said, in all of Major League Baseball, looking at every single team, I found one single pitcher who I would trade Montero for this offseason that has any shot of realistically being available, and even that's guessing with him; there's no real reason why the Mariners couldn't simply wait til the trade deadline, or really, wait until the trade deadline of the 2014 season to trade him. If he keeps pitching well his value isn't going to go down, and they don't figure to contend next year no matter what they trade Felix for. You could even make the argument they'd be better off waiting and trading him for younger players under team control longer, once they feel they're within a few years on contention. Perhaps they feel that way now, and if so, they could make the trade, but if they don't, I'd keep Montero. The options aren't that good and I'm not at all interested in trading away the best hitting prospect the Yankees have had in a very long time, who killed the ball in September, for a one year wonder or back end starting pitcher.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
The Myth of the DH
Lately, I've seen a lot of people calling for Montero to be traded, and not just for an ace pitcher; for whatever the Yankees can get. The argument generally boils down to 2 points:
1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.
2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.
First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.
The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.
A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope).
Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open now because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all.
So when people say Montero needs to be traded because the DH spot needs to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through.
A better question is should Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).
1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.
2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.
First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.
The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.
A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope).
Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open now because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all.
So when people say Montero needs to be traded because the DH spot needs to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through.
A better question is should Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).
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