If the reports are true, Daisuke Matsuzaka has signed for 6 years, 52 million dollars. An absolutely, without question awful deal for him, and a fantastic one for Boston. Matsuzaka is making less than Gil Meche monetarily, with an extra year added. Horrible, horrible deal for him. If he was going to sign for so little money, there's no way he should have signed for 6 years. He could have gotten out after 4 or 5 and signed a huge deal. Now it's just an extra year of making crap money, and he'll be another year older and another year removed from the prime of his career.
Not to mention that this is a bad deal for him in the present market. It's probably going to be even worse in 4 or 5 years.
I know he didn't have much to work with due to the limitations of the system, but Boras got owned here. Badly.
This posting system needs to be fixed or done away with immediately.
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Sunday, December 10, 2006
The Posting System
It's now being reported that talks between the Boston Red Sox and Daisuke Matsuzaka have fallen apart, only a few days before the deadline to sign him. The source complains (which probably means the Red Sox leaked it...I know, I know, I'm as shocked as any of you) that Boras is unwilling to negotiate and "has no interest in getting around the flaws in the posting system".
In actuality the source isn't really wrong. The system is pretty flawed, and now Major League Baseball knows it. From everything rumored, Boston wants to sign Matsuzaka for something in the ballpark of 5 years/50 million (maybe a little less, maybe slightly more) while Boras expects 15-16 million. That's where the problems in the posting system come into play. Defenders of Boston in this case will point out that they already had to bid $51.1 million to even talk to the guy. Detractors will point out that 10 million is what #4 and 5 starters are being paid.
Clearly, Matsuzaka has been touted as an ace pitcher. Boston sees him as an ace, or at worst a #2 starter. They wouldn't have bid $51.1 million if they didn't. And in their mind, offering 50 million for 5 years means they're paying him $101.1 million over 5 years. For a guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors, that's insane. And yet, he wouldn't even see over half that money (not even including Boras' cut). Is that really fair?
The Yankees may be in a similar situation with Igawa, although it is slightly different there. Igawa isn't a free agent in 2008...Matsuzaka would be if he doesn't sign this contract. Igawa may get paid less than he should, but it would be during a time period he'd otherwise be pitching in Japan, as opposed to a time when he could be a free agent. Also, Igawa will be signed as a #5 starter/possible long reliever, not as an ace.
Personally, I think Matsuzaka, based on his stuff and where he will be expected to pitch in the rotation, deserves a lot closer to 15-16 million. Realistically though, thanks to the posting money, that's just not reasonable. However, I find it equally unreasonable to expect your ace starter to earn Ted Lilly money. Sure, that happens with American players (I'm looking at you, Johan Santana...imagine how much he'd make in free agency right now), but at least with them they can simply say "Nope" and go make a deal anywhere else they feel like. Japanese players are virtual slaves to the organization that wins the posting bid. They can either sign a crappy contract that isn't remotely comparable to players of similar ability, or they can refuse and return to Japan, where they didn't want to be pitching in the first place, with a fan base that likely will not respect their decision to "hold out for more cash".
And by the way, can anyone imagine how different baseball would be today if Dominican players weren't allowed to come to the United States and play unless their current team essentially sold them to whatever American team bids the highest? No free agency for David Ortiz, or Manny Ramirez, or Alfonso Soriano, or Albert Pujols, or Miguel Tejada, or (insert name of any of the many excellent Dominican players playing in Major League Baseball right now) . They wouldn't have even made it to the US until they were in their mid to late 20s, and then would have small contracts until they were at an age where they're declining.
I understand why the posting system came into existence, and can't entirely disagree with the need for some kind of rules to be in effect to prevent Japanese players from simply "retiring" and walking out of a contract in order to sign with a US team. But the way it's designed now isn't working either. Unless you think it's fair that if Daisuke Matsuzaka wants to come play in the United States for the next five years, he has to take less money than Gil Meche while dealing with higher expectations than anyone save A-Rod. I sure don't.
Here's an interesting little article about the relationship between Major League Baseball and the Dominican Republic: http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1028-25.htm
In actuality the source isn't really wrong. The system is pretty flawed, and now Major League Baseball knows it. From everything rumored, Boston wants to sign Matsuzaka for something in the ballpark of 5 years/50 million (maybe a little less, maybe slightly more) while Boras expects 15-16 million. That's where the problems in the posting system come into play. Defenders of Boston in this case will point out that they already had to bid $51.1 million to even talk to the guy. Detractors will point out that 10 million is what #4 and 5 starters are being paid.
Clearly, Matsuzaka has been touted as an ace pitcher. Boston sees him as an ace, or at worst a #2 starter. They wouldn't have bid $51.1 million if they didn't. And in their mind, offering 50 million for 5 years means they're paying him $101.1 million over 5 years. For a guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors, that's insane. And yet, he wouldn't even see over half that money (not even including Boras' cut). Is that really fair?
The Yankees may be in a similar situation with Igawa, although it is slightly different there. Igawa isn't a free agent in 2008...Matsuzaka would be if he doesn't sign this contract. Igawa may get paid less than he should, but it would be during a time period he'd otherwise be pitching in Japan, as opposed to a time when he could be a free agent. Also, Igawa will be signed as a #5 starter/possible long reliever, not as an ace.
Personally, I think Matsuzaka, based on his stuff and where he will be expected to pitch in the rotation, deserves a lot closer to 15-16 million. Realistically though, thanks to the posting money, that's just not reasonable. However, I find it equally unreasonable to expect your ace starter to earn Ted Lilly money. Sure, that happens with American players (I'm looking at you, Johan Santana...imagine how much he'd make in free agency right now), but at least with them they can simply say "Nope" and go make a deal anywhere else they feel like. Japanese players are virtual slaves to the organization that wins the posting bid. They can either sign a crappy contract that isn't remotely comparable to players of similar ability, or they can refuse and return to Japan, where they didn't want to be pitching in the first place, with a fan base that likely will not respect their decision to "hold out for more cash".
And by the way, can anyone imagine how different baseball would be today if Dominican players weren't allowed to come to the United States and play unless their current team essentially sold them to whatever American team bids the highest? No free agency for David Ortiz, or Manny Ramirez, or Alfonso Soriano, or Albert Pujols, or Miguel Tejada, or (insert name of any of the many excellent Dominican players playing in Major League Baseball right now) . They wouldn't have even made it to the US until they were in their mid to late 20s, and then would have small contracts until they were at an age where they're declining.
I understand why the posting system came into existence, and can't entirely disagree with the need for some kind of rules to be in effect to prevent Japanese players from simply "retiring" and walking out of a contract in order to sign with a US team. But the way it's designed now isn't working either. Unless you think it's fair that if Daisuke Matsuzaka wants to come play in the United States for the next five years, he has to take less money than Gil Meche while dealing with higher expectations than anyone save A-Rod. I sure don't.
Here's an interesting little article about the relationship between Major League Baseball and the Dominican Republic: http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1028-25.htm
Friday, December 8, 2006
Potential 2007 roster
Obviously, this isn't done, but just to see where the Yankees are at right now, a theoretical Opening Day roster (assuming everyone is healthy and Igawa gets signed):
1. Jorge Posada (C)
2. Andy Phillips (1B)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Derek Jeter (SS)
5. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
6. Hideki Matsui (LF)
7. Johnny Damon (CF)
8. Bobby Abreu (RF)
9. Jason Giambi (DH)
10. Melky Cabrera (Backup Outfielder)
11. Miguel Cairo (Backup Infielder)
12. Wil Nieves (Backup Catcher)
13. Kevin Thompson (Backup Outfielder)
14. Chien Ming Wang (SP)
15. Mike Mussina (SP)
16. Andy Pettitte (SP)
17. Randy Johnson (SP)
18. Carl Pavano (SP)
19. Kei Igawa (Long Relief/lefty out of bullpen)
20. Chris Britton (Middle Relief)
21. Mike Myers (Lefty One Out Guy)
22. Brian Bruney (Middle Relief)
23. Scott Proctor (Middle relief/Setup)
24. Kyle Farnsworth (Setup)
25. Mariano Rivera (Closer)
Obviously I'm guessing at the Yanks resigning Miguel Cairo (I think they can do better but I don't hate Cairo). And they can certainly improve at first base. Backup catcher is a tossup...Nieves isn't anything special, but the Yankees haven't had a backup catcher who can hit in awhile. It's a miracle that Posada stays as healthy as he does. Say what you will about injuries to anyone else on the team, a Posada injury could do serious damage to the Yankees, more than possibly anyone else save maybe a long term injury to Mariano Rivera. There's simply no replacement for Posada offensively. Zero. None. But traditionally the Yanks go with a John Flaherty/Kelly Stinnett/Sal Fasano type, so Nieves wouldn't be completely out of place.
And I stuck Thompson in for the 25th man, but that could also go to an Aaron Guiel type (my pick for the 25th man since he can play both outfield and first base, but Thompson is already on the team and all). Much as I love Bernie, it's one thing being asked to be the fourth outfielder and part time DH...it's quite another to ask him to be the 25th man on an American League team. Unless Torre uses him constantly instead of Melky, he'd never play.
So a potential everyday lineup of:
1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jason Giambi
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Robinson Cano
8. Jorge Posada
9. Andy Phillips
with the possibility of putting someone better than Andy in? Sounds good to me. The pitching staff has question marks but carrying 6 guys plus Karstens/Rasner/Sanchez/Hughes in the minors should help that and prevent a repeat of 2005's musical chairs game.
1. Jorge Posada (C)
2. Andy Phillips (1B)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Derek Jeter (SS)
5. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
6. Hideki Matsui (LF)
7. Johnny Damon (CF)
8. Bobby Abreu (RF)
9. Jason Giambi (DH)
10. Melky Cabrera (Backup Outfielder)
11. Miguel Cairo (Backup Infielder)
12. Wil Nieves (Backup Catcher)
13. Kevin Thompson (Backup Outfielder)
14. Chien Ming Wang (SP)
15. Mike Mussina (SP)
16. Andy Pettitte (SP)
17. Randy Johnson (SP)
18. Carl Pavano (SP)
19. Kei Igawa (Long Relief/lefty out of bullpen)
20. Chris Britton (Middle Relief)
21. Mike Myers (Lefty One Out Guy)
22. Brian Bruney (Middle Relief)
23. Scott Proctor (Middle relief/Setup)
24. Kyle Farnsworth (Setup)
25. Mariano Rivera (Closer)
Obviously I'm guessing at the Yanks resigning Miguel Cairo (I think they can do better but I don't hate Cairo). And they can certainly improve at first base. Backup catcher is a tossup...Nieves isn't anything special, but the Yankees haven't had a backup catcher who can hit in awhile. It's a miracle that Posada stays as healthy as he does. Say what you will about injuries to anyone else on the team, a Posada injury could do serious damage to the Yankees, more than possibly anyone else save maybe a long term injury to Mariano Rivera. There's simply no replacement for Posada offensively. Zero. None. But traditionally the Yanks go with a John Flaherty/Kelly Stinnett/Sal Fasano type, so Nieves wouldn't be completely out of place.
And I stuck Thompson in for the 25th man, but that could also go to an Aaron Guiel type (my pick for the 25th man since he can play both outfield and first base, but Thompson is already on the team and all). Much as I love Bernie, it's one thing being asked to be the fourth outfielder and part time DH...it's quite another to ask him to be the 25th man on an American League team. Unless Torre uses him constantly instead of Melky, he'd never play.
So a potential everyday lineup of:
1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jason Giambi
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Robinson Cano
8. Jorge Posada
9. Andy Phillips
with the possibility of putting someone better than Andy in? Sounds good to me. The pitching staff has question marks but carrying 6 guys plus Karstens/Rasner/Sanchez/Hughes in the minors should help that and prevent a repeat of 2005's musical chairs game.
Andy Pettitte signed
Buster Olney and The Houston Chronicle are both reporting that Andy Pettitte has signed with the New York Yankees. The deal is for 16 million, 1 year, with a player option for 2008.
Great move by the Yanks in my opinion. I mentioned it yesterday, but Andy was possibly the best option for the Yankees due to not wanting a 4 or 5 year contract. One year means Hughes has an open spot for 2008, and if Pettitte does go with the option, the Yankees will have more depth and can always move Pavano or someone else for Hughes (unless Igawa doesn't sign, in which case Randy Johnson's departure would leave an open spot).
Is 16 million a lot? Maybe, especially with the luxury tax, but overpaying for one year of Pettitte is fine by me. The Yankees have been hurt in the past not by paying too much cash, but by giving too many years. Very good deal.
Great move by the Yanks in my opinion. I mentioned it yesterday, but Andy was possibly the best option for the Yankees due to not wanting a 4 or 5 year contract. One year means Hughes has an open spot for 2008, and if Pettitte does go with the option, the Yankees will have more depth and can always move Pavano or someone else for Hughes (unless Igawa doesn't sign, in which case Randy Johnson's departure would leave an open spot).
Is 16 million a lot? Maybe, especially with the luxury tax, but overpaying for one year of Pettitte is fine by me. The Yankees have been hurt in the past not by paying too much cash, but by giving too many years. Very good deal.
Thursday, December 7, 2006
Winter Meetings Over
The Winter Meetings are over now. Not too many huge moves, but a few surprising ones. Ted Lilly to the Cubs makes sense, and nice job passing by Cashman...I don't even care about the money, but 4 years for a #5 starter when the Yanks have plenty of pitching depth in the minors is a bad thing. If you're going to block them with a big time starter, so be it, but if you're going to block them with Ted Lilly, there's a problem.
Gil Meche to the Royals. Apparently they drove up to his house and dumped a huge pile of money on his lawn. 5 years, 55 million (or 60, whatever it actually is) for someone with his numbers is insane, especially when those numbers came from a pitchers park. On the bright side, Yankee fans can rest easy. With every signing made this offseason, Carl Pavano's deal looks better and better. Sure, he's still been a total waste, but now 4 years 40 million is what they give to #5 starters. Imagine what he would have cost in this market.
For that matter, both Matsui and Damon's deals look insanely good now.
The Royals? Really? Speaking of, they have apparently signed Dotel to a 1 year, 5 million dollar contract. I guess that one can't bite them in the ass long term, and Dotel has the potential of course, but he didn't look good to end the year. It's not that it's necessarily a bad deal (especially in this market), but the Royals? Really?
Incidently, this can only help Gagne. Gagne's often injured too, but his upside has to be higher than Dotel's. Supposedly the Red Sox were balking at a one year, 5 million dollar contract for Gagne. I guess that makes sense though, they gave out 2 years and 4 million for a backup infielder, so 5 million for a closer is clearly too high a price.
Speaking of Boston, 5 years and 70 million for JD Drew? I mean, I thought they were so against going beyond 4 years...they're waiving that for Drew? Drew's a good enough player when healthy, but that's a lot.
Lugo was a good signing though. I'm not as high on him as some are, but he's still a good hitter and a clear upgrade for Boston.
Piazza to the A's is a good signing as well, I think.
Schmidt to Dodgers, okay. Surprised he only got 3 years though. I thought for sure he'd get 4 the way the market is going, but I think the Dodgers were smart to only go 3, even if they paid a lot per year.
And Bonds signs with the Giants for a year. Not surprising. What is surprising is their contract for Bengie Molina. I know catchers aren't exactly plentiful, but...wow. They couldn't get him cheaper or for less years? It didn't seem like many teams were out there begging for Bengie Molina to come be their full time catcher.
As for trades, the Braves and Mariners swapped Horacio Ramirez and Rafael Soriano. Not much more to say to that than wow. What were the Mariners smoking? Can I get some?
Garcia to the Phils, good move for them. I'll wait and see from the White Sox perspective. I know they needed to open a spot.
And the big moves from the Yankees are...nothing. Yet. Rumors are flying about Pettitte though. I think Pettitte would be a great signing, and the best possible fit for the Yankees this offseason. Not because of a nostalgia trip, but because he's a solid pitcher, he'd had success in New York before, and most importantly he doesn't want a 4 year or even 3 year contract. 1 year would be fantastic, giving the Yanks depth while leaving a spot for Hughes next year. 2 years would be workable, if Hughes is ready to go in 2008, the Yanks can always trade Pavano for a bag of baseballs or something, assuming a 2008 rotation of Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes, and Igawa. So yes, I think the Yanks should definitely go for Pettitte.
Gil Meche to the Royals. Apparently they drove up to his house and dumped a huge pile of money on his lawn. 5 years, 55 million (or 60, whatever it actually is) for someone with his numbers is insane, especially when those numbers came from a pitchers park. On the bright side, Yankee fans can rest easy. With every signing made this offseason, Carl Pavano's deal looks better and better. Sure, he's still been a total waste, but now 4 years 40 million is what they give to #5 starters. Imagine what he would have cost in this market.
For that matter, both Matsui and Damon's deals look insanely good now.
The Royals? Really? Speaking of, they have apparently signed Dotel to a 1 year, 5 million dollar contract. I guess that one can't bite them in the ass long term, and Dotel has the potential of course, but he didn't look good to end the year. It's not that it's necessarily a bad deal (especially in this market), but the Royals? Really?
Incidently, this can only help Gagne. Gagne's often injured too, but his upside has to be higher than Dotel's. Supposedly the Red Sox were balking at a one year, 5 million dollar contract for Gagne. I guess that makes sense though, they gave out 2 years and 4 million for a backup infielder, so 5 million for a closer is clearly too high a price.
Speaking of Boston, 5 years and 70 million for JD Drew? I mean, I thought they were so against going beyond 4 years...they're waiving that for Drew? Drew's a good enough player when healthy, but that's a lot.
Lugo was a good signing though. I'm not as high on him as some are, but he's still a good hitter and a clear upgrade for Boston.
Piazza to the A's is a good signing as well, I think.
Schmidt to Dodgers, okay. Surprised he only got 3 years though. I thought for sure he'd get 4 the way the market is going, but I think the Dodgers were smart to only go 3, even if they paid a lot per year.
And Bonds signs with the Giants for a year. Not surprising. What is surprising is their contract for Bengie Molina. I know catchers aren't exactly plentiful, but...wow. They couldn't get him cheaper or for less years? It didn't seem like many teams were out there begging for Bengie Molina to come be their full time catcher.
As for trades, the Braves and Mariners swapped Horacio Ramirez and Rafael Soriano. Not much more to say to that than wow. What were the Mariners smoking? Can I get some?
Garcia to the Phils, good move for them. I'll wait and see from the White Sox perspective. I know they needed to open a spot.
And the big moves from the Yankees are...nothing. Yet. Rumors are flying about Pettitte though. I think Pettitte would be a great signing, and the best possible fit for the Yankees this offseason. Not because of a nostalgia trip, but because he's a solid pitcher, he'd had success in New York before, and most importantly he doesn't want a 4 year or even 3 year contract. 1 year would be fantastic, giving the Yanks depth while leaving a spot for Hughes next year. 2 years would be workable, if Hughes is ready to go in 2008, the Yanks can always trade Pavano for a bag of baseballs or something, assuming a 2008 rotation of Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes, and Igawa. So yes, I think the Yanks should definitely go for Pettitte.
Wednesday, December 6, 2006
Go Yanks!
So I decided to start a blog to put my opinions, mainly on the Yanks but really on any MLB related subject, because...I felt like it.
I'm a lifelong Yankee fan (win or lose, no bandwagon stuff here). I'll post about stuff not necessarily related to the Yankees at times, but I'm mainly going to talk about them.
I'm a lifelong Yankee fan (win or lose, no bandwagon stuff here). I'll post about stuff not necessarily related to the Yankees at times, but I'm mainly going to talk about them.
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