Yesterday I pointed out how silly the claim of "The Yankees can't keep Montero if he's a DH!" is, and why it would be stupid to trade him for "anything they can get" as some have suggested. However, there's another question...should Montero be traded? A lot of people have this assumption that ace pitchers are always available at all times, but is that actually true? I went through all the teams and pinpointed players I'd even be willing to trade Montero for. Rule #1: If they're going to be a free agent, they obviously don't count. Rule #2: If they have only one year left on their contract, I'm not interested. Montero has too much potential for too little money to justify trading him for a one year rental at this point. While you can make a case for a top, top pitcher (ala Cliff Lee), there aren't any guys of that caliber with one year remaining.
Over in the NL West, the Rockies have nobody I'd be at all interested in. The Diamondbacks only have Ian Kennedy, and he's not worth Montero at this point, even if he did have a great year. The Padres pitchers always scare me because of the Petco factor, and the only guy that even particularly interests me there is Latos, and I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Over on the Giants, there are two pitchers of interest, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Matt Cain is out for me...while I like him, I think he's more of a #2/#3 type pitcher, and he's only signed through 2012. I wouldn't be against trading for him, but not at the cost of Montero. Lincecum could be a different story, he's an ace. His walk rate is a little high but otherwise he'd probably be a top of the rotation guy anywhere. He's under contract for two more seasons. I can't imagine the Giants would ever do it but I'd probably go for that one. With Posey and Belt around and no DH though, it doesn't make much sense for them. The Dodgers have one pitcher I'd jump on, Clayton Kershaw. I'd make that trade in a second, but the Dodgers have even less reason to do that than the Giants. Kershaw is only just becoming eligible for arbitration; he'll be a bargain for years to come. So, from the NL West, we have Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, and neither figures to be at all available.
Over in the NL Central, I don't think there's a single player I'd trade Montero for. Wainwright is coming off an injury, Carpenter is getting old and isn't as dominant (Game 5 of the NLDS aside). The Reds, Astros, and Pirates don't have anyone I'd be particularly interested in. I'd be a bit interested in Garza from the Cubs but certainly wouldn't trade Montero for him. That leaves the Brewers, but Marcum isn't worth Montero, and Greinke has concerns about pitching in New York and would be a free agent after 2012 anyway. That leaves only Gallardo, who is a bit more interesting as he's under contract through 2014, but he allows too many home runs and I just wouldn't trust him enough. So, nobody from the NL Central.
Over in the NL East, the Mets have nobody of interest. The Marlins and Braves both have an interesting pitcher, but they're coming off serious injuries to their arms/shoulders that would immediately stop me in my tracks. Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson could both be aces or definitive #2 starters, but there is no way I'd trade Montero for either under the current circumstances, not until we know they're healthy. Those types of injuries are huge question marks. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, and I'm back and forth on him. On the one hand, he's also coming off a major injury; however, he's actually returned and pitched some, and looked good doing it. He doesn't seem to have lost a step. The question is, are there more injuries in his future? I think I would reluctantly do it; the Nationals never would. The Phillies have three interesting pitchers, but Hamels only has one year remaining, so I wouldn't do that trade. Lee and Halladay I would, but they obviously wouldn't be available. So, from the NL West, you have Lee, Halladay, and Strasburg, and none of them would be available. Seeing a pattern? From the entire NL, not one pitcher worth trading Montero for figures to be available, and I don't mean that we're guessing they probably aren't available, I mean it makes no logical sense at all that they would be.
Moving to the American League, let's start with the AL East. First off, it bears mentioning that it'd be extremely difficult to make any kind of a trade in division. The Red Sox have Lester, but obviously would never make a deal with the Yankees for players of that caliber. The Orioles have nobody interesting. The Rays have a lot of interesting pitchers, however. Price and Moore are both of great interest, although it's extremely doubtful either would be at all available, and certainly not to the Yankees. The realistic guy there is James Shields. I could definitely see James Shields getting traded. The question is, is he worth trading Montero for? My gut is no. If you knew you were getting the James Shields of this year, then of course, but James Shields prior to this year was solid to bad every other year. Before this year you'd never consider trading Montero for him, and I'm not sure anything has really changed right now. Not that the Rays would be at all likely to trade Shields and his three remaining years in division. As for the Blue Jays, the only pitcher of any interest is Ricky Romero, who has a shockingly great contract for the Blue Jays (he's signed cheap through 2015 with a relatively cheap 2016 option). I'm not the biggest Romero fan around but based solely on how good that contract is and how effective he has been in the AL East, you'd have to at least consider it. So for the AL East, you have Lester, Price, Moore, and perhaps Romero, but none of them would figure to be available, and certainly not to the Yankees.
Over in the AL Central, there is essentially one and only one pitcher that jumps out at me, and that's Justin Verlander. The Twins, Indians, Royals, and White Sox don't have anyone that interests me enough to trade Montero. Naturally, especially after the year Verlander had, I'd trade Montero for him, but of course the Tigers wouldn't.
Finally, the AL West. The Rangers have nobody interesting. CJ Wilson is a free agent and nobody else interests me enough to consider trading Montero for them. The A's have a couple interesting players and people have been linking the Yankees to Gio Gonzalez as recently as the trade deadline, but it's not a trade I'd make. The Angels have Weaver, who I might have been interested in, but his desire to stay on the West coast makes that a no go. I like Haren quite a bit and wanted the Yankees to get him last year, but at this point I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Finally, the Mariners. I might do it for Pineda, but the Mariners wouldn't go for that.
Which finally, leaves us with perhaps the only realistic option. Every single player I've said I would trade Montero for is almost certain to not be traded. The guys who could be traded only have one year left on their contracts, or simply aren't good enough (or have too many injuries in recent years) to justify it. However, the one player who could perhaps get traded, the one ace who doesn't play for a team with realistic expectations of contention, who has a large contract the team could want to move, is Felix Hernandez.
There are a few problems with Felix. For starters, he didn't look like his recent self this season. He looked more like the Felix of 2006-2008, who was very good but not really one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his strikeout rate was the best of his career and his walk rate remained low; this could just be a fluke. Also, with three years remaining on his contract, if the Mariners would even entertain offers for him (and it's a big if, albeit realistic unlike many of the other aces in baseball), it would certainly cost more than Montero. Montero would likely have to be included in any offer, since the Mariners badly need offense, but they'd want more. Montero and Nova is a realistic start to the offer, with probably one additional player (likely not Banuelos, as that would probably be too high of a price, but Hughes/Betances would be possibilities). I actually don't think I'd do a deal of Montero/Nova/Hughes for Felix. It would create too many holes on the major league team, and if the Yankees took on Felix' salary (18.5 million in 2012), they'd be right up against the payroll limit Hal and Hank seemingly set last year. While they could probably be convinced to go a little higher, you're not going to fill those multiple empty spots. Everyone is down on Hughes, but he at least fills a starting pitching role on the team; trading him plus Nova opens up two holes while only filling one, in what is a terrible free agent market for pitchers (and that's assuming CC resigns with the Yankees), in addition to opening up a hole at the DH position. Betances and Banuelos have a lot of potential but simply aren't ready. I would, however, probably do a deal that included Montero, one of the starters, and Betances or a lesser prospect. Betances has a world of potential but has to get his walks under control, and it's possible he never does that. I'd hate to do that deal since I don't want to see Montero traded, but realistically you have to give up something of worth.
All that said, in all of Major League Baseball, looking at every single team, I found one single pitcher who I would trade Montero for this offseason that has any shot of realistically being available, and even that's guessing with him; there's no real reason why the Mariners couldn't simply wait til the trade deadline, or really, wait until the trade deadline of the 2014 season to trade him. If he keeps pitching well his value isn't going to go down, and they don't figure to contend next year no matter what they trade Felix for. You could even make the argument they'd be better off waiting and trading him for younger players under team control longer, once they feel they're within a few years on contention. Perhaps they feel that way now, and if so, they could make the trade, but if they don't, I'd keep Montero. The options aren't that good and I'm not at all interested in trading away the best hitting prospect the Yankees have had in a very long time, who killed the ball in September, for a one year wonder or back end starting pitcher.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Sunday, October 9, 2011
The Myth of the DH
Lately, I've seen a lot of people calling for Montero to be traded, and not just for an ace pitcher; for whatever the Yankees can get. The argument generally boils down to 2 points:
1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.
2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.
First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.
The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.
A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope).
Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open now because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all.
So when people say Montero needs to be traded because the DH spot needs to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through.
A better question is should Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).
1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.
2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.
First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.
The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.
A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope).
Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open now because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all.
So when people say Montero needs to be traded because the DH spot needs to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through.
A better question is should Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).
Friday, October 7, 2011
Potential Starters for 2012
So, we've established now that overall, the Yankees can pretty easily fill 23 of the 25 spots on their roster for 2012 (again, assuming no injuries or trades, which are both possibilities but are tough to predict right now). But that starting pitching looks really suspect right now, with Nova the only one that's even close to a sure thing, and we're really working off a small sample size of half a season, his first half wasn't too good. Obviously, the one name that jumps out is CC Sabathia. He has the ability to opt out and most feel that he will, especially with the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market. While he didn't look quite as good in September and October, resigning CC is a must. There simply aren't other options for aces right now, and even if the Yankees were to pull off a huge trade, you'd only be replacing him (and losing top prospects to do it). Besides, let's be honest...while he was far from sharp in Game 3, he was getting squeezed pretty badly on that outside corner to right handed hitters. That game might have gone very differently if he wasn't. Let's work under the assumption that the Yankees do bring Sabathia back...he seems to love it in New York and the Yankees really do need him back. That leaves one empty pitching spot on the roster (at least, as Hughes or even Burnett could end up bumped from the rotation...but I think that's unlikely at this point).
To be honest, if you're looking at the free agent market and want a pitcher who can pitch toward the top of the rotation, rather than a 4 or 5 starter at best, there's only a single guy who would likely be worth it, and that's CJ Wilson. There are a couple decent options such as Roy Oswalt, but he's getting older, has pitched his whole career in the NL, and has an option for 2012. Hiroki Kuroda is also a free agent but seems to prefer to stay on the West Coast. That leaves CJ Wilson and a whole lot of meh. I've gone back and forth on CJ Wilson, personally. Prior to this season I wanted no part of him, but he had a really good year. Here are the pros and cons on him.
Pros:
- Has thrown 200 innings the last two seasons (was a reliever before that)
- Strong strikeout rate
- Pitches in the AL in a hitters ballpark, so there's reason to think he could succeed anywhere
- Left handed pitcher, always a plus at Yankee Stadium
- Doesn't allow a lot of hits, while this can always change based on luck, it's good to see a consistently low hits per 9 rate.
- Limits home runs despite being in a hitters ballpark
Cons:
- Very high walk rate. 3.0 per 9 (his walk rate for 2011) is workable, but before that he was around 4.0 per 9 or more, and that's just too many, especially pitching in the AL West for the one above average offensive team in the division. His walk rate could go even higher in the AL East.
- Went from being a reliever to suddenly throwing 200 IP two years in a row, including 223 this season. He didn't seem to have a problem this year, so it may not matter, but anytime you see that innings jump there are going to be at least questions about arm troubles.
- Is more of a #2 starter who could be paid ace money, due to being the only good free agent pitcher on the market if Sabathia stays with the Yankees, and due to currently being on Texas, who has money to spend as evidenced by their pursuit of Cliff Lee.
If the Yankees were to sign CJ Wilson (and resign CC Sabathia), I think I'd be okay with it, but I wouldn't have a problem with it if they didn't. The walks are the big concern for me. Did we see Wilson figure it out this season? Or was it a fluke and he'll be back to walking 4 per 9 again? Also, I know people like to just say "Yankees have money, who cares", but these things do matter. There are limits on payroll as we've seen recently. The Yankees are losing Jorge Posada and should be able to replace him with the league minimum Jesus Montero, but that's about all they're losing right now, and they do have to be wary of the fact that after 2013, Robinson Cano might have to be resigned to an enormous, superstar level contract. In addition, Felix Hernandez always looms as a possibility, and his 20 million a year salary likely wouldn't be possible if CJ Wilson were signed.
Speaking of Felix, he seems to be the only ace type pitcher who even might be available via trade this offseason (which isn't to say he even will be available). The Yankees could probably put together a good package for him, especially since Montero looked so good in September. However, any trade for Felix would create other holes, such as at DH, that would need to be filled, with little money to do it.
If Wilson returns to the Rangers, that leaves the Yankees in a tough situation. In that case, they might be best served doing what they did this year...signing a pair of back end starters to take a chance on (ala Garcia and Colon) and having Betances and Banuelos ready should they develop the way we hope they do. Neither guy is ready to make the team out of Spring Training, but both could be ready soon after. This would enable the Yankees to get by for another year and go after Cole Hamels after the 2012 season, or to hope the kids develop to an extent that they can full all the necessary roles in the rotation. It's also possible the Yankees could make a more minor trade without using Montero, to try to get someone like Matt Garza or Matt Cain.
One wild card in the whole thing is Yu Darvish, who is expected to be posted this offseason by Japan. His stuff is off the charts, but there are of course potential problems there. For starters, he'd cost a lot of money since any team would have to pay the posting fee as well as signing him to a contract. Second, while I'm not of the "Japanese pitchers all suck!" mindset that a lot of people seem to have, I do think Japan is different from the US, and it'd really be preferable for any Japanese pitcher coming to the US to spend some time in the minor leagues, to adapt to pitching every 5 days instead of every 6, to learn to face hitters who are more likely to take a walk or hit for power. The problem is, with so much money invested in these players via the posting fee, there's a lot of pressure on the team that gets them to have them in the rotation immediately. I could see Yu Darvish doing that; Daisuke Matsuzaka is the general go to for "great stuff but struggled in the US", but I like Darvish better. Look him up on YouTube to see him pitch; it's pretty impressive. Darvish is very much a difficult guy to predict, though, because there's no guarantee the Yankees would even win the rights to him (a place where offering the biggest contract doesn't work), and even if they do, he could be anything from an ace to a guy with great stuff that can't quite adapt. It'd certainly be a risky move.
One other name that should be mentioned, since he could become a trade target this offseason, is James Shields. While I certainly wouldn't mind having him, I imagine the Yankees would have to greatly overpay, beyond everyone else, considering the Rays are a constantly contending team and wouldn't want to trade him to one of their two main competitors.
It's very difficult to predict at this point what the Yankees will do in terms of starting pitching. Resigning Sabathia is an obvious move, but beyond that, they have a number of things they could do with that last rotation spot.
To be honest, if you're looking at the free agent market and want a pitcher who can pitch toward the top of the rotation, rather than a 4 or 5 starter at best, there's only a single guy who would likely be worth it, and that's CJ Wilson. There are a couple decent options such as Roy Oswalt, but he's getting older, has pitched his whole career in the NL, and has an option for 2012. Hiroki Kuroda is also a free agent but seems to prefer to stay on the West Coast. That leaves CJ Wilson and a whole lot of meh. I've gone back and forth on CJ Wilson, personally. Prior to this season I wanted no part of him, but he had a really good year. Here are the pros and cons on him.
Pros:
- Has thrown 200 innings the last two seasons (was a reliever before that)
- Strong strikeout rate
- Pitches in the AL in a hitters ballpark, so there's reason to think he could succeed anywhere
- Left handed pitcher, always a plus at Yankee Stadium
- Doesn't allow a lot of hits, while this can always change based on luck, it's good to see a consistently low hits per 9 rate.
- Limits home runs despite being in a hitters ballpark
Cons:
- Very high walk rate. 3.0 per 9 (his walk rate for 2011) is workable, but before that he was around 4.0 per 9 or more, and that's just too many, especially pitching in the AL West for the one above average offensive team in the division. His walk rate could go even higher in the AL East.
- Went from being a reliever to suddenly throwing 200 IP two years in a row, including 223 this season. He didn't seem to have a problem this year, so it may not matter, but anytime you see that innings jump there are going to be at least questions about arm troubles.
- Is more of a #2 starter who could be paid ace money, due to being the only good free agent pitcher on the market if Sabathia stays with the Yankees, and due to currently being on Texas, who has money to spend as evidenced by their pursuit of Cliff Lee.
If the Yankees were to sign CJ Wilson (and resign CC Sabathia), I think I'd be okay with it, but I wouldn't have a problem with it if they didn't. The walks are the big concern for me. Did we see Wilson figure it out this season? Or was it a fluke and he'll be back to walking 4 per 9 again? Also, I know people like to just say "Yankees have money, who cares", but these things do matter. There are limits on payroll as we've seen recently. The Yankees are losing Jorge Posada and should be able to replace him with the league minimum Jesus Montero, but that's about all they're losing right now, and they do have to be wary of the fact that after 2013, Robinson Cano might have to be resigned to an enormous, superstar level contract. In addition, Felix Hernandez always looms as a possibility, and his 20 million a year salary likely wouldn't be possible if CJ Wilson were signed.
Speaking of Felix, he seems to be the only ace type pitcher who even might be available via trade this offseason (which isn't to say he even will be available). The Yankees could probably put together a good package for him, especially since Montero looked so good in September. However, any trade for Felix would create other holes, such as at DH, that would need to be filled, with little money to do it.
If Wilson returns to the Rangers, that leaves the Yankees in a tough situation. In that case, they might be best served doing what they did this year...signing a pair of back end starters to take a chance on (ala Garcia and Colon) and having Betances and Banuelos ready should they develop the way we hope they do. Neither guy is ready to make the team out of Spring Training, but both could be ready soon after. This would enable the Yankees to get by for another year and go after Cole Hamels after the 2012 season, or to hope the kids develop to an extent that they can full all the necessary roles in the rotation. It's also possible the Yankees could make a more minor trade without using Montero, to try to get someone like Matt Garza or Matt Cain.
One wild card in the whole thing is Yu Darvish, who is expected to be posted this offseason by Japan. His stuff is off the charts, but there are of course potential problems there. For starters, he'd cost a lot of money since any team would have to pay the posting fee as well as signing him to a contract. Second, while I'm not of the "Japanese pitchers all suck!" mindset that a lot of people seem to have, I do think Japan is different from the US, and it'd really be preferable for any Japanese pitcher coming to the US to spend some time in the minor leagues, to adapt to pitching every 5 days instead of every 6, to learn to face hitters who are more likely to take a walk or hit for power. The problem is, with so much money invested in these players via the posting fee, there's a lot of pressure on the team that gets them to have them in the rotation immediately. I could see Yu Darvish doing that; Daisuke Matsuzaka is the general go to for "great stuff but struggled in the US", but I like Darvish better. Look him up on YouTube to see him pitch; it's pretty impressive. Darvish is very much a difficult guy to predict, though, because there's no guarantee the Yankees would even win the rights to him (a place where offering the biggest contract doesn't work), and even if they do, he could be anything from an ace to a guy with great stuff that can't quite adapt. It'd certainly be a risky move.
One other name that should be mentioned, since he could become a trade target this offseason, is James Shields. While I certainly wouldn't mind having him, I imagine the Yankees would have to greatly overpay, beyond everyone else, considering the Rays are a constantly contending team and wouldn't want to trade him to one of their two main competitors.
It's very difficult to predict at this point what the Yankees will do in terms of starting pitching. Resigning Sabathia is an obvious move, but beyond that, they have a number of things they could do with that last rotation spot.
The Offseason Begins
Last night was a tough loss for the Yankees, and with it, the speculation begins as to what the Yankees will do to prepare for the 2012 season.
For starters, let's look at the guys, minus a trade or an injury, who will be guaranteed to be on the roster to start next season.
1. Derek Jeter
2. Robinson Cano (technically has to have his option picked up, an obvious no brainer)
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Brett Gardner
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. AJ Burnett
9. Phil Hughes
10. Ivan Nova
11. Mariano Rivera
12. David Robertson
13. Boone Logan
14. Rafael Soriano (unless he opts out, which would be a surprise)
15. Cory Wade
In addition to those guys, we have Martin. I would assume he'll be kept by the Yankees. While they only signed him to a one year deal, Martin is not eligible for free agency until after 2012, as he was previously nontendered by the Dodgers. I imagine he stays with the Yankees, but I put him seperately just in case.
16. Russell Martin
You also have Nick Swisher, who has a relatively cheap option. A few people are completely overreacting to a few small sample size games in October. Swisher had a rough start to the year but picked it up quite a bit after that. Especially considering the lack of good free agent outfielders aside from Carlos Beltran, this seems like an obvious move.
17. Nick Swisher
Jorge Posada is almost certainly gone now, after a great and underrated career with the Yankees. Assuming that is the case, it also seems obvious Jesus Montero will take his spot on the roster (again, barring a trade) as the full time DH and perhaps occasional catcher in an emergency.
18. Jesus Montero
I left Francisco Cervelli off the definites only as a "just in case", since he hasn't exactly been amazing, but he has been the backup catcher, Austin Romine isn't ready, and I find it unlikely they'd make Jesus Montero the backup catcher and still have him DH every day.
19. Francisco Cervelli
That leaves only 6 open roster spots...the starting nine is essentially already filled, assuming Martin and Swisher return and Montero is the DH. The backup infield spot and backup catcher are filled as well. That leaves two bench players (one backup outfielder, one other), two bullpen spots, and two starting pitching spots. There aren't nearly as many open spots as people may think. The bullpen spots could be filled by virtually anyone...Joba may fill one shortly after the season starts if he's healthy by then, the Yankees could sign a long man who could also start in case of injuries, they could try signing another lefty again (assuming Feliciano can't pitch), or they could just call someone up from the minors. The core of the bullpen remains intact. As for bench spots, I'd try hard to resign Jones, he can play left field adequately and he can hit lefties really well. For the last bench spot, I'd look for someone who can play third and hit a little bit, ideally.
I'll cover the starting pitcher spots in another post.
For starters, let's look at the guys, minus a trade or an injury, who will be guaranteed to be on the roster to start next season.
1. Derek Jeter
2. Robinson Cano (technically has to have his option picked up, an obvious no brainer)
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Brett Gardner
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. AJ Burnett
9. Phil Hughes
10. Ivan Nova
11. Mariano Rivera
12. David Robertson
13. Boone Logan
14. Rafael Soriano (unless he opts out, which would be a surprise)
15. Cory Wade
In addition to those guys, we have Martin. I would assume he'll be kept by the Yankees. While they only signed him to a one year deal, Martin is not eligible for free agency until after 2012, as he was previously nontendered by the Dodgers. I imagine he stays with the Yankees, but I put him seperately just in case.
16. Russell Martin
You also have Nick Swisher, who has a relatively cheap option. A few people are completely overreacting to a few small sample size games in October. Swisher had a rough start to the year but picked it up quite a bit after that. Especially considering the lack of good free agent outfielders aside from Carlos Beltran, this seems like an obvious move.
17. Nick Swisher
Jorge Posada is almost certainly gone now, after a great and underrated career with the Yankees. Assuming that is the case, it also seems obvious Jesus Montero will take his spot on the roster (again, barring a trade) as the full time DH and perhaps occasional catcher in an emergency.
18. Jesus Montero
I left Francisco Cervelli off the definites only as a "just in case", since he hasn't exactly been amazing, but he has been the backup catcher, Austin Romine isn't ready, and I find it unlikely they'd make Jesus Montero the backup catcher and still have him DH every day.
19. Francisco Cervelli
That leaves only 6 open roster spots...the starting nine is essentially already filled, assuming Martin and Swisher return and Montero is the DH. The backup infield spot and backup catcher are filled as well. That leaves two bench players (one backup outfielder, one other), two bullpen spots, and two starting pitching spots. There aren't nearly as many open spots as people may think. The bullpen spots could be filled by virtually anyone...Joba may fill one shortly after the season starts if he's healthy by then, the Yankees could sign a long man who could also start in case of injuries, they could try signing another lefty again (assuming Feliciano can't pitch), or they could just call someone up from the minors. The core of the bullpen remains intact. As for bench spots, I'd try hard to resign Jones, he can play left field adequately and he can hit lefties really well. For the last bench spot, I'd look for someone who can play third and hit a little bit, ideally.
I'll cover the starting pitcher spots in another post.
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