Haven't had much to talk about for a while, but a few days ago the Yankees finally broke their offseason silence and made some big moves.
1. Yankees sign Hiroki Kuroda
May as well start with the more "basic" signing first. I love this move. Is Kuroda an ace? No. He is, however, a good pitcher who should give the Yankees 200ish innings with an ERA around 4 or lower. He's got good stuff and isn't simply a product of the NL West; he has good road numbers, complete with a solid strikeout rate and an elite walk rate. The only real question I'd have is with his home runs, which have fluctuated in his four years stateside. He had a high home run rate in 2011; however, it was actually higher on the road than at home, so it may have been a fluke. In any case, good signing, especially since it won't effect the team past this year anyway.
2. Yankees trade Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos
Whew, this was a crazy trade. When I first saw that the Mariners were finalizing a deal for a young impact bat, I immediately wondered if it could be Montero, and sure enough...
My last posts dealt with the idea of trading Montero. While I did mention Pineda as someone I would have considered trading Montero for, I didn't expect it to actually happen, even if it does make some sense for both teams. If the Yankees were going to trade Montero, though, this is the type of player they should have targeted...a young, high upside pitcher who has already pitched very well in the majors (but still has 5 years to go to reach free agency).
First off, what doesn't this mean? You can already see some of the spin that this means such and such for the future of the team, or how the Yankees must have been down on Montero. I do think it's entirely possible (especially given how September went) that the Yankees were more down on Montero the catcher than they were willing to let on. However, I think that's about the only thing it says. A lot of people have declared this means the Yankees didn't want a DH because A-Rod's going to be moved there in the next couple of years. However, that assumes the Yankees had no intention of ever keeping Montero, and I don't buy that for a second. There was never any indication they were interested in including him for any other pitchers traded...in fact, I think Pineda may have been one of the only possible pitchers he could have been traded for. Felix is unavailable and so is nearly every other ace or #2 type starter that it would have been reasonable to trade Montero for. If the Mariners had (very realistically) decided not to trade Pineda, I firmly believe Jesus Montero would be a Yankee next season and going forward. This trade was made because Pineda became available, not because the Yankees were trying to get rid of Montero.
Could this mean more DH time in the future for Alex Rodriguez? Absolutely. There's no immediate candidate to replace Montero at DH, now or in the future (more on that in another post in the next few days). However, does this mean they made the trade because they're expecting A-Rod to DH a ton soon? No, I don't believe that. The reasoning I brought up a couple months ago still stands.
So, what do I think about the trade? I'm not entirely sure. I'm tentatively in favor of it. I was a huge fan of Montero and didn't want him traded except for very specific circumstances...this was potentially one of them. If Montero is going to be a full time DH, that's less valuable than catching full time. Still valuable, but less so. Meanwhile, this gives the Yankees a #2 starter that is under team control for the next 5 years, who has a chance to become an ace. The possibility of getting Cole Hamels next year hasn't been eliminated either, although it seems less likely now. Imagine a top 3 of Sabathia/Hamels/Pineda? That's an insane top three that would make the Yankees the immediate favorites in any postseason series they're in. Of course, if the Yankees are serious about getting payroll under 189 million by 2014, then Hamels is almost certainly not possible. Regardless, this gives the Yankees more options. I hate to see Montero go, but if you're going to move him, this is the deal to do it in.
The "throw ins" are interesting as well. In the short term they clearly favor the Mariners, as Noesi is ready to contribute right now and Campos is years away. However, Campos actually has upside, with most saying he would have been a clear first round pick had he entered the draft this year. This is an interesting addition for the Yankees, brought on, I suspect, by the new CBA. The new CBA could significantly hurt the Yankees in terms of their farm system. They will have much less money that they can spend in the draft without sacrificing first round draft picks, and they're going to be extremely limited in how much they can spend on international free agents. In addition, because they're the Yankees, the team is always contending and rarely is able to trade players to rebuild their farm; the players they trade are usually younger guys traded away to help the major league team. This gives the Yankees a prospect that will fit into their top 10 (likely somewhere in the middle...5-7 or so). Noesi is a nice back end of the rotation/long reliever type, but he's an interchangeable part on this Yankee team. One out of Hughes/Garcia/Burnett seems certain to take the long relief role (I'll cover the 5th starter situation in another post soon), so Noesi was probably headed back to the minors anyway.
Finally, Pineda. I think there are a few legitimate concerns about him, and a few concerns that aren't fair. I've seen a few people bring up the fact that he has had elbow issues in the past. In 2009, he missed a good amount of the season with elbow soreness. However, from what I understand, it was at least somewhat precautionary. Elbow issues of any kind are a bad thing with pitchers, but the fact is he had elbow soreness 2 years and many innings ago and as far as I'm aware has never had the issue again. Besides, it was soreness, not elbow surgery. I'm not too concerned there.
The second concern I've seen raised is the home run rate. First off, let's be clear on this: Pineda is going to give up some home runs. He's a fly ball pitcher and Yankee Stadium has the short porch. That said, I think some of the concern is over the top. One of the reasons Yankee Stadium allows so many home runs is that the Yankees themselves are the best home run hitting team in baseball. That's somewhat of a "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?" argument, but it does have to factor in. Meanwhile, the Mariners are the second worst home run hitting team in the American League (and if Morneau had played a full year, they probably would be worse than the Twins). Again, part of this is due to their park, but the team itself simply has no power. That's only a small part of it though; of course it's easier to hit a home run in Yankee Stadium than it is at Safeco. Pineda, though, oddly enough, had a better home run rate on the road than he did at home. Whether this suggests he got a little lucky on the road or whether it suggests he got a little unlucky at home, I don't know. His minor league home run rate was actually quite good. I suspect the end result for Pineda is going to be a home run rate about what he did last year, or slightly higher. Last year his home run rate was 0.9 per 9 innings, I expect something close to that, perhaps as high as 1 per 9. I don't think he's going to skyrocket up to 1.2 per 9 like some seem to think. Time will tell there, but I'm not too concerned about the home run rate.
The final main complaint is about Pineda's poor second half. It's true that Pineda's second half was worse than his first, in terms of ERA. Some of his other numbers were not that different, though. His K/9 and BB/9 were close to the same, which suggests he may have just gotten unlucky. Also, Pineda went through three terrible starts in a row in mid July...if you take those out, his second half ERA was, I believe, under 4.00, and his overall ERA is closer to 3.00 than 4.00. The reason I mention that is we don't really know why he got knocked around in those three starts. If he just got knocked around for no particular reason, then yes, that's something we may have to see every year. If, however, Pineda had a mechanical issue he needed to work out or a minor injury he didn't disclose, it's not fair to expect starts like that every year. I'd also point out that toward the end of the year, the Mariners were attempting to limit Pineda's innings. He was skipped at least twice, pushed back a day here or there, and taken out after 90 pitches multiple times (even when pitching well). His final start came on 11 days rest and lasted 80 pitches. It's tough to take a lot out of that, when so many pitchers thrive with consistency.
What does Pineda do right? He has a fantastic strikeout rate. Even if it goes down slightly in the AL East (no guarantee, the hitters are certainly better but it doesn't necessarily mean they strike out less), it's still an elite strikeout rate. What is perhaps even more interesting is the excellent walk rate. That's great to see from such a young pitcher with such good stuff.
If Pineda can stay healthy, he should be a strong pitcher for the Yankees for many years. I think Montero is going to be a very good hitter, and it hurts to lose him, but the Yankees have greatly improved their rotation without having to give out an enormous long term contract. Now, they have the option to try to get payroll down or to hand out that big contract to make a "super rotation" comparable to the Phillies. This trade is going to take awhile to fairly judge, though.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Monday, October 10, 2011
Should Montero Be Traded?
Yesterday I pointed out how silly the claim of "The Yankees can't keep Montero if he's a DH!" is, and why it would be stupid to trade him for "anything they can get" as some have suggested. However, there's another question...should Montero be traded? A lot of people have this assumption that ace pitchers are always available at all times, but is that actually true? I went through all the teams and pinpointed players I'd even be willing to trade Montero for. Rule #1: If they're going to be a free agent, they obviously don't count. Rule #2: If they have only one year left on their contract, I'm not interested. Montero has too much potential for too little money to justify trading him for a one year rental at this point. While you can make a case for a top, top pitcher (ala Cliff Lee), there aren't any guys of that caliber with one year remaining.
Over in the NL West, the Rockies have nobody I'd be at all interested in. The Diamondbacks only have Ian Kennedy, and he's not worth Montero at this point, even if he did have a great year. The Padres pitchers always scare me because of the Petco factor, and the only guy that even particularly interests me there is Latos, and I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Over on the Giants, there are two pitchers of interest, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Matt Cain is out for me...while I like him, I think he's more of a #2/#3 type pitcher, and he's only signed through 2012. I wouldn't be against trading for him, but not at the cost of Montero. Lincecum could be a different story, he's an ace. His walk rate is a little high but otherwise he'd probably be a top of the rotation guy anywhere. He's under contract for two more seasons. I can't imagine the Giants would ever do it but I'd probably go for that one. With Posey and Belt around and no DH though, it doesn't make much sense for them. The Dodgers have one pitcher I'd jump on, Clayton Kershaw. I'd make that trade in a second, but the Dodgers have even less reason to do that than the Giants. Kershaw is only just becoming eligible for arbitration; he'll be a bargain for years to come. So, from the NL West, we have Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, and neither figures to be at all available.
Over in the NL Central, I don't think there's a single player I'd trade Montero for. Wainwright is coming off an injury, Carpenter is getting old and isn't as dominant (Game 5 of the NLDS aside). The Reds, Astros, and Pirates don't have anyone I'd be particularly interested in. I'd be a bit interested in Garza from the Cubs but certainly wouldn't trade Montero for him. That leaves the Brewers, but Marcum isn't worth Montero, and Greinke has concerns about pitching in New York and would be a free agent after 2012 anyway. That leaves only Gallardo, who is a bit more interesting as he's under contract through 2014, but he allows too many home runs and I just wouldn't trust him enough. So, nobody from the NL Central.
Over in the NL East, the Mets have nobody of interest. The Marlins and Braves both have an interesting pitcher, but they're coming off serious injuries to their arms/shoulders that would immediately stop me in my tracks. Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson could both be aces or definitive #2 starters, but there is no way I'd trade Montero for either under the current circumstances, not until we know they're healthy. Those types of injuries are huge question marks. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, and I'm back and forth on him. On the one hand, he's also coming off a major injury; however, he's actually returned and pitched some, and looked good doing it. He doesn't seem to have lost a step. The question is, are there more injuries in his future? I think I would reluctantly do it; the Nationals never would. The Phillies have three interesting pitchers, but Hamels only has one year remaining, so I wouldn't do that trade. Lee and Halladay I would, but they obviously wouldn't be available. So, from the NL West, you have Lee, Halladay, and Strasburg, and none of them would be available. Seeing a pattern? From the entire NL, not one pitcher worth trading Montero for figures to be available, and I don't mean that we're guessing they probably aren't available, I mean it makes no logical sense at all that they would be.
Moving to the American League, let's start with the AL East. First off, it bears mentioning that it'd be extremely difficult to make any kind of a trade in division. The Red Sox have Lester, but obviously would never make a deal with the Yankees for players of that caliber. The Orioles have nobody interesting. The Rays have a lot of interesting pitchers, however. Price and Moore are both of great interest, although it's extremely doubtful either would be at all available, and certainly not to the Yankees. The realistic guy there is James Shields. I could definitely see James Shields getting traded. The question is, is he worth trading Montero for? My gut is no. If you knew you were getting the James Shields of this year, then of course, but James Shields prior to this year was solid to bad every other year. Before this year you'd never consider trading Montero for him, and I'm not sure anything has really changed right now. Not that the Rays would be at all likely to trade Shields and his three remaining years in division. As for the Blue Jays, the only pitcher of any interest is Ricky Romero, who has a shockingly great contract for the Blue Jays (he's signed cheap through 2015 with a relatively cheap 2016 option). I'm not the biggest Romero fan around but based solely on how good that contract is and how effective he has been in the AL East, you'd have to at least consider it. So for the AL East, you have Lester, Price, Moore, and perhaps Romero, but none of them would figure to be available, and certainly not to the Yankees.
Over in the AL Central, there is essentially one and only one pitcher that jumps out at me, and that's Justin Verlander. The Twins, Indians, Royals, and White Sox don't have anyone that interests me enough to trade Montero. Naturally, especially after the year Verlander had, I'd trade Montero for him, but of course the Tigers wouldn't.
Finally, the AL West. The Rangers have nobody interesting. CJ Wilson is a free agent and nobody else interests me enough to consider trading Montero for them. The A's have a couple interesting players and people have been linking the Yankees to Gio Gonzalez as recently as the trade deadline, but it's not a trade I'd make. The Angels have Weaver, who I might have been interested in, but his desire to stay on the West coast makes that a no go. I like Haren quite a bit and wanted the Yankees to get him last year, but at this point I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Finally, the Mariners. I might do it for Pineda, but the Mariners wouldn't go for that.
Which finally, leaves us with perhaps the only realistic option. Every single player I've said I would trade Montero for is almost certain to not be traded. The guys who could be traded only have one year left on their contracts, or simply aren't good enough (or have too many injuries in recent years) to justify it. However, the one player who could perhaps get traded, the one ace who doesn't play for a team with realistic expectations of contention, who has a large contract the team could want to move, is Felix Hernandez.
There are a few problems with Felix. For starters, he didn't look like his recent self this season. He looked more like the Felix of 2006-2008, who was very good but not really one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his strikeout rate was the best of his career and his walk rate remained low; this could just be a fluke. Also, with three years remaining on his contract, if the Mariners would even entertain offers for him (and it's a big if, albeit realistic unlike many of the other aces in baseball), it would certainly cost more than Montero. Montero would likely have to be included in any offer, since the Mariners badly need offense, but they'd want more. Montero and Nova is a realistic start to the offer, with probably one additional player (likely not Banuelos, as that would probably be too high of a price, but Hughes/Betances would be possibilities). I actually don't think I'd do a deal of Montero/Nova/Hughes for Felix. It would create too many holes on the major league team, and if the Yankees took on Felix' salary (18.5 million in 2012), they'd be right up against the payroll limit Hal and Hank seemingly set last year. While they could probably be convinced to go a little higher, you're not going to fill those multiple empty spots. Everyone is down on Hughes, but he at least fills a starting pitching role on the team; trading him plus Nova opens up two holes while only filling one, in what is a terrible free agent market for pitchers (and that's assuming CC resigns with the Yankees), in addition to opening up a hole at the DH position. Betances and Banuelos have a lot of potential but simply aren't ready. I would, however, probably do a deal that included Montero, one of the starters, and Betances or a lesser prospect. Betances has a world of potential but has to get his walks under control, and it's possible he never does that. I'd hate to do that deal since I don't want to see Montero traded, but realistically you have to give up something of worth.
All that said, in all of Major League Baseball, looking at every single team, I found one single pitcher who I would trade Montero for this offseason that has any shot of realistically being available, and even that's guessing with him; there's no real reason why the Mariners couldn't simply wait til the trade deadline, or really, wait until the trade deadline of the 2014 season to trade him. If he keeps pitching well his value isn't going to go down, and they don't figure to contend next year no matter what they trade Felix for. You could even make the argument they'd be better off waiting and trading him for younger players under team control longer, once they feel they're within a few years on contention. Perhaps they feel that way now, and if so, they could make the trade, but if they don't, I'd keep Montero. The options aren't that good and I'm not at all interested in trading away the best hitting prospect the Yankees have had in a very long time, who killed the ball in September, for a one year wonder or back end starting pitcher.
Over in the NL West, the Rockies have nobody I'd be at all interested in. The Diamondbacks only have Ian Kennedy, and he's not worth Montero at this point, even if he did have a great year. The Padres pitchers always scare me because of the Petco factor, and the only guy that even particularly interests me there is Latos, and I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Over on the Giants, there are two pitchers of interest, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Matt Cain is out for me...while I like him, I think he's more of a #2/#3 type pitcher, and he's only signed through 2012. I wouldn't be against trading for him, but not at the cost of Montero. Lincecum could be a different story, he's an ace. His walk rate is a little high but otherwise he'd probably be a top of the rotation guy anywhere. He's under contract for two more seasons. I can't imagine the Giants would ever do it but I'd probably go for that one. With Posey and Belt around and no DH though, it doesn't make much sense for them. The Dodgers have one pitcher I'd jump on, Clayton Kershaw. I'd make that trade in a second, but the Dodgers have even less reason to do that than the Giants. Kershaw is only just becoming eligible for arbitration; he'll be a bargain for years to come. So, from the NL West, we have Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, and neither figures to be at all available.
Over in the NL Central, I don't think there's a single player I'd trade Montero for. Wainwright is coming off an injury, Carpenter is getting old and isn't as dominant (Game 5 of the NLDS aside). The Reds, Astros, and Pirates don't have anyone I'd be particularly interested in. I'd be a bit interested in Garza from the Cubs but certainly wouldn't trade Montero for him. That leaves the Brewers, but Marcum isn't worth Montero, and Greinke has concerns about pitching in New York and would be a free agent after 2012 anyway. That leaves only Gallardo, who is a bit more interesting as he's under contract through 2014, but he allows too many home runs and I just wouldn't trust him enough. So, nobody from the NL Central.
Over in the NL East, the Mets have nobody of interest. The Marlins and Braves both have an interesting pitcher, but they're coming off serious injuries to their arms/shoulders that would immediately stop me in my tracks. Josh Johnson and Tommy Hanson could both be aces or definitive #2 starters, but there is no way I'd trade Montero for either under the current circumstances, not until we know they're healthy. Those types of injuries are huge question marks. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, and I'm back and forth on him. On the one hand, he's also coming off a major injury; however, he's actually returned and pitched some, and looked good doing it. He doesn't seem to have lost a step. The question is, are there more injuries in his future? I think I would reluctantly do it; the Nationals never would. The Phillies have three interesting pitchers, but Hamels only has one year remaining, so I wouldn't do that trade. Lee and Halladay I would, but they obviously wouldn't be available. So, from the NL West, you have Lee, Halladay, and Strasburg, and none of them would be available. Seeing a pattern? From the entire NL, not one pitcher worth trading Montero for figures to be available, and I don't mean that we're guessing they probably aren't available, I mean it makes no logical sense at all that they would be.
Moving to the American League, let's start with the AL East. First off, it bears mentioning that it'd be extremely difficult to make any kind of a trade in division. The Red Sox have Lester, but obviously would never make a deal with the Yankees for players of that caliber. The Orioles have nobody interesting. The Rays have a lot of interesting pitchers, however. Price and Moore are both of great interest, although it's extremely doubtful either would be at all available, and certainly not to the Yankees. The realistic guy there is James Shields. I could definitely see James Shields getting traded. The question is, is he worth trading Montero for? My gut is no. If you knew you were getting the James Shields of this year, then of course, but James Shields prior to this year was solid to bad every other year. Before this year you'd never consider trading Montero for him, and I'm not sure anything has really changed right now. Not that the Rays would be at all likely to trade Shields and his three remaining years in division. As for the Blue Jays, the only pitcher of any interest is Ricky Romero, who has a shockingly great contract for the Blue Jays (he's signed cheap through 2015 with a relatively cheap 2016 option). I'm not the biggest Romero fan around but based solely on how good that contract is and how effective he has been in the AL East, you'd have to at least consider it. So for the AL East, you have Lester, Price, Moore, and perhaps Romero, but none of them would figure to be available, and certainly not to the Yankees.
Over in the AL Central, there is essentially one and only one pitcher that jumps out at me, and that's Justin Verlander. The Twins, Indians, Royals, and White Sox don't have anyone that interests me enough to trade Montero. Naturally, especially after the year Verlander had, I'd trade Montero for him, but of course the Tigers wouldn't.
Finally, the AL West. The Rangers have nobody interesting. CJ Wilson is a free agent and nobody else interests me enough to consider trading Montero for them. The A's have a couple interesting players and people have been linking the Yankees to Gio Gonzalez as recently as the trade deadline, but it's not a trade I'd make. The Angels have Weaver, who I might have been interested in, but his desire to stay on the West coast makes that a no go. I like Haren quite a bit and wanted the Yankees to get him last year, but at this point I wouldn't trade Montero for him. Finally, the Mariners. I might do it for Pineda, but the Mariners wouldn't go for that.
Which finally, leaves us with perhaps the only realistic option. Every single player I've said I would trade Montero for is almost certain to not be traded. The guys who could be traded only have one year left on their contracts, or simply aren't good enough (or have too many injuries in recent years) to justify it. However, the one player who could perhaps get traded, the one ace who doesn't play for a team with realistic expectations of contention, who has a large contract the team could want to move, is Felix Hernandez.
There are a few problems with Felix. For starters, he didn't look like his recent self this season. He looked more like the Felix of 2006-2008, who was very good but not really one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, his strikeout rate was the best of his career and his walk rate remained low; this could just be a fluke. Also, with three years remaining on his contract, if the Mariners would even entertain offers for him (and it's a big if, albeit realistic unlike many of the other aces in baseball), it would certainly cost more than Montero. Montero would likely have to be included in any offer, since the Mariners badly need offense, but they'd want more. Montero and Nova is a realistic start to the offer, with probably one additional player (likely not Banuelos, as that would probably be too high of a price, but Hughes/Betances would be possibilities). I actually don't think I'd do a deal of Montero/Nova/Hughes for Felix. It would create too many holes on the major league team, and if the Yankees took on Felix' salary (18.5 million in 2012), they'd be right up against the payroll limit Hal and Hank seemingly set last year. While they could probably be convinced to go a little higher, you're not going to fill those multiple empty spots. Everyone is down on Hughes, but he at least fills a starting pitching role on the team; trading him plus Nova opens up two holes while only filling one, in what is a terrible free agent market for pitchers (and that's assuming CC resigns with the Yankees), in addition to opening up a hole at the DH position. Betances and Banuelos have a lot of potential but simply aren't ready. I would, however, probably do a deal that included Montero, one of the starters, and Betances or a lesser prospect. Betances has a world of potential but has to get his walks under control, and it's possible he never does that. I'd hate to do that deal since I don't want to see Montero traded, but realistically you have to give up something of worth.
All that said, in all of Major League Baseball, looking at every single team, I found one single pitcher who I would trade Montero for this offseason that has any shot of realistically being available, and even that's guessing with him; there's no real reason why the Mariners couldn't simply wait til the trade deadline, or really, wait until the trade deadline of the 2014 season to trade him. If he keeps pitching well his value isn't going to go down, and they don't figure to contend next year no matter what they trade Felix for. You could even make the argument they'd be better off waiting and trading him for younger players under team control longer, once they feel they're within a few years on contention. Perhaps they feel that way now, and if so, they could make the trade, but if they don't, I'd keep Montero. The options aren't that good and I'm not at all interested in trading away the best hitting prospect the Yankees have had in a very long time, who killed the ball in September, for a one year wonder or back end starting pitcher.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
The Myth of the DH
Lately, I've seen a lot of people calling for Montero to be traded, and not just for an ace pitcher; for whatever the Yankees can get. The argument generally boils down to 2 points:
1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.
2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.
First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.
The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.
A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope).
Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open now because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all.
So when people say Montero needs to be traded because the DH spot needs to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through.
A better question is should Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).
1. Jesus Montero is nothing more than a DH, he doesn't play a position.
2. The Yankees need the DH spot open.
First off, it's clear Montero doesn't have the speed to play the outfield. There are serious concerns about his catching ability; he seems to have a good arm, but his ability to block balls is another story completely. He obviously won't be playing shortstop or second, and he probably doesn't have the reflexes to play third, even if his arm is accurate enough. Which leaves first base, which Mark Teixeira has locked up for another five years. To which I say...so what? It's not ideal, obviously. It'd be nice if he could effectively play a position the Yankees need. If he can't, however...well, last I checked, DH is a position too, one which the Yankees have open. If Montero can hit the way we hope he can (and he certainly seemed to show it in September), is it so bad? The Red Sox have had a set DH since 2003 in David Ortiz; how has that gone for them? Pretty well. So that really shouldn't factor in.
The second point is the one brought up the most. "The Yankees will need the DH position for Jeter and A-Rod as they get older!". That is more or less a media driven false claim that people keep repeating. Let's start with Jeter. Jeter has another three years on his contract. He rebounded to have a solid year after a terrible start. Realistically, there were still some less than great signs; even post All Star Break, he didn't hit for much power. Jeter's never been a big power hitter, but this is low even for him. However, if he can keep hitting close to .300 with an OBP in the .360 and up range, the Yankees can get by on that. His defense could be another story. While I think people oversell the idea that Jeter is a terrible defender, and I find defensive stats to be somewhat flawed, even the eye test shows that Jeter doesn't quite get to balls that other shortstops get to, especially up the middle. If I had an Italian restaurant, I'd serve "Pasta Divingjeter". However, Jeter isn't a complete waste at short either; as we saw from Nunez this year, there is value in someone that makes the plays when the ball is hit to them, something that Jeter typically does. And frankly, people have been claiming for years now that the Yankees need to move Jeter off shortstop. It doesn't look likely to happen. Jeter's going to keep manning that shortstop position until someone pries it from his cold, dead fingers, and even if he starts rapidly declining even more, he's only under contract for three more years. Jeter isn't the problem. He's not injury prone, so he's probably going to get the usual five or so games at DH (this year he had ten, mainly due to a couple minor injuries). If he's not hitting well and Montero is, maybe those turn into bench days instead. It's not a big deal.
A-Rod could be a different story, mainly because of his injuries. Since 2007 Alex seems to have a big injury every year, and the DH spot could, in theory, keep him healthier. However, in this case, defense doesn't seem to be a big problem. Most defensive stats (if you want to buy into them) have had him as below average at third base throughout his career, but this year he was above average. When healthy, he still seems perfectly capable of holding down the position. When he's not healthy, well...that's the problem. But if he's seriously hurt, he can go on the DL. If he's not, then maybe he splits a little time with Montero at DH. Again, all of this is under the assumption Montero is hitting. If he is, then maybe you sit A-Rod instead of DHing him when he needs a day off from the field. Is that honestly a huge problem? It's not at all out of the question to think Montero could outhit A-Rod from here on out, as we've seen A-Rod declining. Since we're not even talking about 2012 but sometime in the vague future, it even seems likely (once again, I stress, this is all under the assumption that Montero at least somewhat hits like we hope).
Finally, one thing that needs to be pointed out...those talking about this don't seem to think A-Rod and Jeter will need to be DHing this coming year. It's all somewhere in the mysterious future when they wake up unable to play their position. That may never happen with Jeter, he might retire before he gets to that point. For A-Rod, with six years remaining on his contract, that could happen, and when that time comes, we'll see what happens, but are we seriously talking about leaving the DH spot open now because maybe four years from now Alex will have to be the DH? That makes no sense at all.
So when people say Montero needs to be traded because the DH spot needs to stay open for A-Rod and Jeter, don't listen. That's a crap argument that hasn't been thought through. It's parroting other people who needed something quick to write about. I'm not asking you to take my opinion as the definitive word; if you disagree with me, I'd be happy to hear why. Maybe I'm wrong. But the idea of needing to move Montero now because maybe someday A-Rod will have to DH, that doesn't even make logical sense to me, and I suspect it wouldn't make logical sense to anyone who thought it through.
A better question is should Montero be traded this offseason? I'll cover that question in my next post (probably tomorrow).
Friday, October 7, 2011
Potential Starters for 2012
So, we've established now that overall, the Yankees can pretty easily fill 23 of the 25 spots on their roster for 2012 (again, assuming no injuries or trades, which are both possibilities but are tough to predict right now). But that starting pitching looks really suspect right now, with Nova the only one that's even close to a sure thing, and we're really working off a small sample size of half a season, his first half wasn't too good. Obviously, the one name that jumps out is CC Sabathia. He has the ability to opt out and most feel that he will, especially with the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market. While he didn't look quite as good in September and October, resigning CC is a must. There simply aren't other options for aces right now, and even if the Yankees were to pull off a huge trade, you'd only be replacing him (and losing top prospects to do it). Besides, let's be honest...while he was far from sharp in Game 3, he was getting squeezed pretty badly on that outside corner to right handed hitters. That game might have gone very differently if he wasn't. Let's work under the assumption that the Yankees do bring Sabathia back...he seems to love it in New York and the Yankees really do need him back. That leaves one empty pitching spot on the roster (at least, as Hughes or even Burnett could end up bumped from the rotation...but I think that's unlikely at this point).
To be honest, if you're looking at the free agent market and want a pitcher who can pitch toward the top of the rotation, rather than a 4 or 5 starter at best, there's only a single guy who would likely be worth it, and that's CJ Wilson. There are a couple decent options such as Roy Oswalt, but he's getting older, has pitched his whole career in the NL, and has an option for 2012. Hiroki Kuroda is also a free agent but seems to prefer to stay on the West Coast. That leaves CJ Wilson and a whole lot of meh. I've gone back and forth on CJ Wilson, personally. Prior to this season I wanted no part of him, but he had a really good year. Here are the pros and cons on him.
Pros:
- Has thrown 200 innings the last two seasons (was a reliever before that)
- Strong strikeout rate
- Pitches in the AL in a hitters ballpark, so there's reason to think he could succeed anywhere
- Left handed pitcher, always a plus at Yankee Stadium
- Doesn't allow a lot of hits, while this can always change based on luck, it's good to see a consistently low hits per 9 rate.
- Limits home runs despite being in a hitters ballpark
Cons:
- Very high walk rate. 3.0 per 9 (his walk rate for 2011) is workable, but before that he was around 4.0 per 9 or more, and that's just too many, especially pitching in the AL West for the one above average offensive team in the division. His walk rate could go even higher in the AL East.
- Went from being a reliever to suddenly throwing 200 IP two years in a row, including 223 this season. He didn't seem to have a problem this year, so it may not matter, but anytime you see that innings jump there are going to be at least questions about arm troubles.
- Is more of a #2 starter who could be paid ace money, due to being the only good free agent pitcher on the market if Sabathia stays with the Yankees, and due to currently being on Texas, who has money to spend as evidenced by their pursuit of Cliff Lee.
If the Yankees were to sign CJ Wilson (and resign CC Sabathia), I think I'd be okay with it, but I wouldn't have a problem with it if they didn't. The walks are the big concern for me. Did we see Wilson figure it out this season? Or was it a fluke and he'll be back to walking 4 per 9 again? Also, I know people like to just say "Yankees have money, who cares", but these things do matter. There are limits on payroll as we've seen recently. The Yankees are losing Jorge Posada and should be able to replace him with the league minimum Jesus Montero, but that's about all they're losing right now, and they do have to be wary of the fact that after 2013, Robinson Cano might have to be resigned to an enormous, superstar level contract. In addition, Felix Hernandez always looms as a possibility, and his 20 million a year salary likely wouldn't be possible if CJ Wilson were signed.
Speaking of Felix, he seems to be the only ace type pitcher who even might be available via trade this offseason (which isn't to say he even will be available). The Yankees could probably put together a good package for him, especially since Montero looked so good in September. However, any trade for Felix would create other holes, such as at DH, that would need to be filled, with little money to do it.
If Wilson returns to the Rangers, that leaves the Yankees in a tough situation. In that case, they might be best served doing what they did this year...signing a pair of back end starters to take a chance on (ala Garcia and Colon) and having Betances and Banuelos ready should they develop the way we hope they do. Neither guy is ready to make the team out of Spring Training, but both could be ready soon after. This would enable the Yankees to get by for another year and go after Cole Hamels after the 2012 season, or to hope the kids develop to an extent that they can full all the necessary roles in the rotation. It's also possible the Yankees could make a more minor trade without using Montero, to try to get someone like Matt Garza or Matt Cain.
One wild card in the whole thing is Yu Darvish, who is expected to be posted this offseason by Japan. His stuff is off the charts, but there are of course potential problems there. For starters, he'd cost a lot of money since any team would have to pay the posting fee as well as signing him to a contract. Second, while I'm not of the "Japanese pitchers all suck!" mindset that a lot of people seem to have, I do think Japan is different from the US, and it'd really be preferable for any Japanese pitcher coming to the US to spend some time in the minor leagues, to adapt to pitching every 5 days instead of every 6, to learn to face hitters who are more likely to take a walk or hit for power. The problem is, with so much money invested in these players via the posting fee, there's a lot of pressure on the team that gets them to have them in the rotation immediately. I could see Yu Darvish doing that; Daisuke Matsuzaka is the general go to for "great stuff but struggled in the US", but I like Darvish better. Look him up on YouTube to see him pitch; it's pretty impressive. Darvish is very much a difficult guy to predict, though, because there's no guarantee the Yankees would even win the rights to him (a place where offering the biggest contract doesn't work), and even if they do, he could be anything from an ace to a guy with great stuff that can't quite adapt. It'd certainly be a risky move.
One other name that should be mentioned, since he could become a trade target this offseason, is James Shields. While I certainly wouldn't mind having him, I imagine the Yankees would have to greatly overpay, beyond everyone else, considering the Rays are a constantly contending team and wouldn't want to trade him to one of their two main competitors.
It's very difficult to predict at this point what the Yankees will do in terms of starting pitching. Resigning Sabathia is an obvious move, but beyond that, they have a number of things they could do with that last rotation spot.
To be honest, if you're looking at the free agent market and want a pitcher who can pitch toward the top of the rotation, rather than a 4 or 5 starter at best, there's only a single guy who would likely be worth it, and that's CJ Wilson. There are a couple decent options such as Roy Oswalt, but he's getting older, has pitched his whole career in the NL, and has an option for 2012. Hiroki Kuroda is also a free agent but seems to prefer to stay on the West Coast. That leaves CJ Wilson and a whole lot of meh. I've gone back and forth on CJ Wilson, personally. Prior to this season I wanted no part of him, but he had a really good year. Here are the pros and cons on him.
Pros:
- Has thrown 200 innings the last two seasons (was a reliever before that)
- Strong strikeout rate
- Pitches in the AL in a hitters ballpark, so there's reason to think he could succeed anywhere
- Left handed pitcher, always a plus at Yankee Stadium
- Doesn't allow a lot of hits, while this can always change based on luck, it's good to see a consistently low hits per 9 rate.
- Limits home runs despite being in a hitters ballpark
Cons:
- Very high walk rate. 3.0 per 9 (his walk rate for 2011) is workable, but before that he was around 4.0 per 9 or more, and that's just too many, especially pitching in the AL West for the one above average offensive team in the division. His walk rate could go even higher in the AL East.
- Went from being a reliever to suddenly throwing 200 IP two years in a row, including 223 this season. He didn't seem to have a problem this year, so it may not matter, but anytime you see that innings jump there are going to be at least questions about arm troubles.
- Is more of a #2 starter who could be paid ace money, due to being the only good free agent pitcher on the market if Sabathia stays with the Yankees, and due to currently being on Texas, who has money to spend as evidenced by their pursuit of Cliff Lee.
If the Yankees were to sign CJ Wilson (and resign CC Sabathia), I think I'd be okay with it, but I wouldn't have a problem with it if they didn't. The walks are the big concern for me. Did we see Wilson figure it out this season? Or was it a fluke and he'll be back to walking 4 per 9 again? Also, I know people like to just say "Yankees have money, who cares", but these things do matter. There are limits on payroll as we've seen recently. The Yankees are losing Jorge Posada and should be able to replace him with the league minimum Jesus Montero, but that's about all they're losing right now, and they do have to be wary of the fact that after 2013, Robinson Cano might have to be resigned to an enormous, superstar level contract. In addition, Felix Hernandez always looms as a possibility, and his 20 million a year salary likely wouldn't be possible if CJ Wilson were signed.
Speaking of Felix, he seems to be the only ace type pitcher who even might be available via trade this offseason (which isn't to say he even will be available). The Yankees could probably put together a good package for him, especially since Montero looked so good in September. However, any trade for Felix would create other holes, such as at DH, that would need to be filled, with little money to do it.
If Wilson returns to the Rangers, that leaves the Yankees in a tough situation. In that case, they might be best served doing what they did this year...signing a pair of back end starters to take a chance on (ala Garcia and Colon) and having Betances and Banuelos ready should they develop the way we hope they do. Neither guy is ready to make the team out of Spring Training, but both could be ready soon after. This would enable the Yankees to get by for another year and go after Cole Hamels after the 2012 season, or to hope the kids develop to an extent that they can full all the necessary roles in the rotation. It's also possible the Yankees could make a more minor trade without using Montero, to try to get someone like Matt Garza or Matt Cain.
One wild card in the whole thing is Yu Darvish, who is expected to be posted this offseason by Japan. His stuff is off the charts, but there are of course potential problems there. For starters, he'd cost a lot of money since any team would have to pay the posting fee as well as signing him to a contract. Second, while I'm not of the "Japanese pitchers all suck!" mindset that a lot of people seem to have, I do think Japan is different from the US, and it'd really be preferable for any Japanese pitcher coming to the US to spend some time in the minor leagues, to adapt to pitching every 5 days instead of every 6, to learn to face hitters who are more likely to take a walk or hit for power. The problem is, with so much money invested in these players via the posting fee, there's a lot of pressure on the team that gets them to have them in the rotation immediately. I could see Yu Darvish doing that; Daisuke Matsuzaka is the general go to for "great stuff but struggled in the US", but I like Darvish better. Look him up on YouTube to see him pitch; it's pretty impressive. Darvish is very much a difficult guy to predict, though, because there's no guarantee the Yankees would even win the rights to him (a place where offering the biggest contract doesn't work), and even if they do, he could be anything from an ace to a guy with great stuff that can't quite adapt. It'd certainly be a risky move.
One other name that should be mentioned, since he could become a trade target this offseason, is James Shields. While I certainly wouldn't mind having him, I imagine the Yankees would have to greatly overpay, beyond everyone else, considering the Rays are a constantly contending team and wouldn't want to trade him to one of their two main competitors.
It's very difficult to predict at this point what the Yankees will do in terms of starting pitching. Resigning Sabathia is an obvious move, but beyond that, they have a number of things they could do with that last rotation spot.
The Offseason Begins
Last night was a tough loss for the Yankees, and with it, the speculation begins as to what the Yankees will do to prepare for the 2012 season.
For starters, let's look at the guys, minus a trade or an injury, who will be guaranteed to be on the roster to start next season.
1. Derek Jeter
2. Robinson Cano (technically has to have his option picked up, an obvious no brainer)
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Brett Gardner
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. AJ Burnett
9. Phil Hughes
10. Ivan Nova
11. Mariano Rivera
12. David Robertson
13. Boone Logan
14. Rafael Soriano (unless he opts out, which would be a surprise)
15. Cory Wade
In addition to those guys, we have Martin. I would assume he'll be kept by the Yankees. While they only signed him to a one year deal, Martin is not eligible for free agency until after 2012, as he was previously nontendered by the Dodgers. I imagine he stays with the Yankees, but I put him seperately just in case.
16. Russell Martin
You also have Nick Swisher, who has a relatively cheap option. A few people are completely overreacting to a few small sample size games in October. Swisher had a rough start to the year but picked it up quite a bit after that. Especially considering the lack of good free agent outfielders aside from Carlos Beltran, this seems like an obvious move.
17. Nick Swisher
Jorge Posada is almost certainly gone now, after a great and underrated career with the Yankees. Assuming that is the case, it also seems obvious Jesus Montero will take his spot on the roster (again, barring a trade) as the full time DH and perhaps occasional catcher in an emergency.
18. Jesus Montero
I left Francisco Cervelli off the definites only as a "just in case", since he hasn't exactly been amazing, but he has been the backup catcher, Austin Romine isn't ready, and I find it unlikely they'd make Jesus Montero the backup catcher and still have him DH every day.
19. Francisco Cervelli
That leaves only 6 open roster spots...the starting nine is essentially already filled, assuming Martin and Swisher return and Montero is the DH. The backup infield spot and backup catcher are filled as well. That leaves two bench players (one backup outfielder, one other), two bullpen spots, and two starting pitching spots. There aren't nearly as many open spots as people may think. The bullpen spots could be filled by virtually anyone...Joba may fill one shortly after the season starts if he's healthy by then, the Yankees could sign a long man who could also start in case of injuries, they could try signing another lefty again (assuming Feliciano can't pitch), or they could just call someone up from the minors. The core of the bullpen remains intact. As for bench spots, I'd try hard to resign Jones, he can play left field adequately and he can hit lefties really well. For the last bench spot, I'd look for someone who can play third and hit a little bit, ideally.
I'll cover the starting pitcher spots in another post.
For starters, let's look at the guys, minus a trade or an injury, who will be guaranteed to be on the roster to start next season.
1. Derek Jeter
2. Robinson Cano (technically has to have his option picked up, an obvious no brainer)
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Brett Gardner
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. AJ Burnett
9. Phil Hughes
10. Ivan Nova
11. Mariano Rivera
12. David Robertson
13. Boone Logan
14. Rafael Soriano (unless he opts out, which would be a surprise)
15. Cory Wade
In addition to those guys, we have Martin. I would assume he'll be kept by the Yankees. While they only signed him to a one year deal, Martin is not eligible for free agency until after 2012, as he was previously nontendered by the Dodgers. I imagine he stays with the Yankees, but I put him seperately just in case.
16. Russell Martin
You also have Nick Swisher, who has a relatively cheap option. A few people are completely overreacting to a few small sample size games in October. Swisher had a rough start to the year but picked it up quite a bit after that. Especially considering the lack of good free agent outfielders aside from Carlos Beltran, this seems like an obvious move.
17. Nick Swisher
Jorge Posada is almost certainly gone now, after a great and underrated career with the Yankees. Assuming that is the case, it also seems obvious Jesus Montero will take his spot on the roster (again, barring a trade) as the full time DH and perhaps occasional catcher in an emergency.
18. Jesus Montero
I left Francisco Cervelli off the definites only as a "just in case", since he hasn't exactly been amazing, but he has been the backup catcher, Austin Romine isn't ready, and I find it unlikely they'd make Jesus Montero the backup catcher and still have him DH every day.
19. Francisco Cervelli
That leaves only 6 open roster spots...the starting nine is essentially already filled, assuming Martin and Swisher return and Montero is the DH. The backup infield spot and backup catcher are filled as well. That leaves two bench players (one backup outfielder, one other), two bullpen spots, and two starting pitching spots. There aren't nearly as many open spots as people may think. The bullpen spots could be filled by virtually anyone...Joba may fill one shortly after the season starts if he's healthy by then, the Yankees could sign a long man who could also start in case of injuries, they could try signing another lefty again (assuming Feliciano can't pitch), or they could just call someone up from the minors. The core of the bullpen remains intact. As for bench spots, I'd try hard to resign Jones, he can play left field adequately and he can hit lefties really well. For the last bench spot, I'd look for someone who can play third and hit a little bit, ideally.
I'll cover the starting pitcher spots in another post.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The moves so far...
May as well update this thing from time to time.
My thoughts on the moves so far:
1. Sabathia: Great! Couldn't be happier about it. Are there some potential concerns, sure, he did have a ridiculous amount of innings the past two years. On the other hand CC has yet to show he can't handle it. I don't like the "poor postseason numbers" argument. It's a small sample size. 2007 could have been a case of "He's thrown way more innings than ever before and it's catching up". In 2008 he threw even more, and he was working on 3 days rest for something like 4 starts in a row. If it was pressure getting to him, why was he pitching well for the Brewers down the stretch in a tight pennant race? I think CC will be fine.
2. AJ Burnett: I've gone back and forth on Burnett since the season ended, but I'm currently in the pro Burnett corner. I wish it could have been for 4 years rather than 5, but otherwise I think the potential upside here trumps anything else. Does he miss starts most years? Yes, although I tend to think this has been overblown. He's still got excellent stuff. Also, I've seen people point out that, okay, maybe he misses a few starts during the season, but the possibility of his stuff (and his apparent ability to pitch well in big games, albeit never in the postseason...we're pretty much talking about his strong performances against the Yankees and Boston I think) in the playoffs could make up for that. The deal could work out great, it could be terrible, but I think given the choices, this was probably the best move.
3. Nick Swisher: I like this move, quite a bit actually. I think last year was more flukeish than anything. Swisher had some bad luck, for starters. He also wasn't comfortable leading off or playing centerfield. He also has stated that he felt he wasn't adjusted to playing for a new team, and claims he learned a lot last year.
From a pure statistical perspective, I expect Swisher to improve which means we'll get a solid OBP and solid power at first base with some solid defense as well. But one thing I like that I normally wouldn't care about is that Swisher seems really enthusiastic to be here. Maybe it's just his natural personality, but reading posts he has made on his website or hearing him in an interview, he doesn't sound like someone who is *cue robot voice* 'glad he is a Yankee and looking forward to the opportunity to win'. He sounds genuinely excited about being a Yankee. I'm looking forward to seeing Swisher in action.
4. Damaso Marte: Resigned him for 3 years. I'm alright with it, although this is another move I've flipped on. I did want Marte back this season so I don't think I would have just offered arbitration and let him go elsewhere, but I thought picking up his option for one year (albeit at a slightly higher salary for 2009) and taking the picks at the end of the season would have been a better option. I still think that might be the case, but I have no problem with Marte returning. Marte got lit up by Texas early in August, and then struggled a bit with the Angels and Twins later that month, which soured a lot of people on him, but he was very good from that point on. While the kids in the bullpen showed a lot last season, having one veteran that might actually be able to get the job done in a setup role is nice.
I think that's essentially it for moves (unless I'm forgetting one).
As far as other rumored moves:
I'd definitely trade Melky for Cameron. Melky is what he is at this point, and I think last years Melky is probably more like the real Melky. I also like Gardner, but I'm not sold on whether he'll be able to man CF full time. I like him better as the 4th outfielder. Cameron's problem is he costs 10 million for the one season, but I think it's a move that the Yankees should consider making. If Gardner/Melky are ineffective in center again, the team is one injury to a Posada/Matsui/Damon/A-Rod/etc. away from being crippled. Cameron gives you some insurance.
Teixeira: I just don't see this happening. Do I like Teixeira, yes. Signing him gives you a great hitter at first base for a long time (although he could of course decline). Then you can move Swisher to right field and either trade Nady or make him your fourth outfielder. The issue that a lot of people are failing to understand when arguing that the Yankees shouldn't trade for Cameron because they can use that 10 million toward Teixeira is that there's a lot more to it than just this year. If Teixeira approached the Yankees right now and said "Okay, I'll take a one year deal for 23 million, let's do that!" I have no doubt the Yankees would have him signed tomorrow. But tying up 70-75 million in 3 players for 7 years is not a good idea no matter how good they are. There's no flexibility there.
Manny: I really don't know. The Yankees could use another hitter, but is Manny really the answer? He's a great hitter, no question. But you have to trade someone to make room. If it's Nady, fine, but who plays right, Damon or Manny? Not sure either is ideal, that's a lot of ground for Manny to cover and that's a lot of guys going first to third on Damon's arm. So you can move Damon, your leadoff hitter, or you can move Matsui, who probably can't play the field full time and so would have to be traded to an AL team with an opening at DH that believes they can contend this year and has 13 million to spend. Oh, and Matsui has to agree to it. Doesn't seem too likely to me. Plus Manny's a headcase. And how well will he and Girardi really get along? Seems like a big personality clash waiting to happen there.
5th rotation spot: Ideally, just give it to Pettitte and call it a day. There seems to be concerns over Sheets medical records (not surprisingly) and while I was interested in him before Burnett signed, I'm less thrilled with the idea of two guys with injury question marks like that. I also don't like the idea of Lowe in that spot, I'd rather not give him a 4 year contract and it would essentially tie up all rotation spots for the next 4 years leaving no room for someone like Hughes.
My thoughts on the moves so far:
1. Sabathia: Great! Couldn't be happier about it. Are there some potential concerns, sure, he did have a ridiculous amount of innings the past two years. On the other hand CC has yet to show he can't handle it. I don't like the "poor postseason numbers" argument. It's a small sample size. 2007 could have been a case of "He's thrown way more innings than ever before and it's catching up". In 2008 he threw even more, and he was working on 3 days rest for something like 4 starts in a row. If it was pressure getting to him, why was he pitching well for the Brewers down the stretch in a tight pennant race? I think CC will be fine.
2. AJ Burnett: I've gone back and forth on Burnett since the season ended, but I'm currently in the pro Burnett corner. I wish it could have been for 4 years rather than 5, but otherwise I think the potential upside here trumps anything else. Does he miss starts most years? Yes, although I tend to think this has been overblown. He's still got excellent stuff. Also, I've seen people point out that, okay, maybe he misses a few starts during the season, but the possibility of his stuff (and his apparent ability to pitch well in big games, albeit never in the postseason...we're pretty much talking about his strong performances against the Yankees and Boston I think) in the playoffs could make up for that. The deal could work out great, it could be terrible, but I think given the choices, this was probably the best move.
3. Nick Swisher: I like this move, quite a bit actually. I think last year was more flukeish than anything. Swisher had some bad luck, for starters. He also wasn't comfortable leading off or playing centerfield. He also has stated that he felt he wasn't adjusted to playing for a new team, and claims he learned a lot last year.
From a pure statistical perspective, I expect Swisher to improve which means we'll get a solid OBP and solid power at first base with some solid defense as well. But one thing I like that I normally wouldn't care about is that Swisher seems really enthusiastic to be here. Maybe it's just his natural personality, but reading posts he has made on his website or hearing him in an interview, he doesn't sound like someone who is *cue robot voice* 'glad he is a Yankee and looking forward to the opportunity to win'. He sounds genuinely excited about being a Yankee. I'm looking forward to seeing Swisher in action.
4. Damaso Marte: Resigned him for 3 years. I'm alright with it, although this is another move I've flipped on. I did want Marte back this season so I don't think I would have just offered arbitration and let him go elsewhere, but I thought picking up his option for one year (albeit at a slightly higher salary for 2009) and taking the picks at the end of the season would have been a better option. I still think that might be the case, but I have no problem with Marte returning. Marte got lit up by Texas early in August, and then struggled a bit with the Angels and Twins later that month, which soured a lot of people on him, but he was very good from that point on. While the kids in the bullpen showed a lot last season, having one veteran that might actually be able to get the job done in a setup role is nice.
I think that's essentially it for moves (unless I'm forgetting one).
As far as other rumored moves:
I'd definitely trade Melky for Cameron. Melky is what he is at this point, and I think last years Melky is probably more like the real Melky. I also like Gardner, but I'm not sold on whether he'll be able to man CF full time. I like him better as the 4th outfielder. Cameron's problem is he costs 10 million for the one season, but I think it's a move that the Yankees should consider making. If Gardner/Melky are ineffective in center again, the team is one injury to a Posada/Matsui/Damon/A-Rod/etc. away from being crippled. Cameron gives you some insurance.
Teixeira: I just don't see this happening. Do I like Teixeira, yes. Signing him gives you a great hitter at first base for a long time (although he could of course decline). Then you can move Swisher to right field and either trade Nady or make him your fourth outfielder. The issue that a lot of people are failing to understand when arguing that the Yankees shouldn't trade for Cameron because they can use that 10 million toward Teixeira is that there's a lot more to it than just this year. If Teixeira approached the Yankees right now and said "Okay, I'll take a one year deal for 23 million, let's do that!" I have no doubt the Yankees would have him signed tomorrow. But tying up 70-75 million in 3 players for 7 years is not a good idea no matter how good they are. There's no flexibility there.
Manny: I really don't know. The Yankees could use another hitter, but is Manny really the answer? He's a great hitter, no question. But you have to trade someone to make room. If it's Nady, fine, but who plays right, Damon or Manny? Not sure either is ideal, that's a lot of ground for Manny to cover and that's a lot of guys going first to third on Damon's arm. So you can move Damon, your leadoff hitter, or you can move Matsui, who probably can't play the field full time and so would have to be traded to an AL team with an opening at DH that believes they can contend this year and has 13 million to spend. Oh, and Matsui has to agree to it. Doesn't seem too likely to me. Plus Manny's a headcase. And how well will he and Girardi really get along? Seems like a big personality clash waiting to happen there.
5th rotation spot: Ideally, just give it to Pettitte and call it a day. There seems to be concerns over Sheets medical records (not surprisingly) and while I was interested in him before Burnett signed, I'm less thrilled with the idea of two guys with injury question marks like that. I also don't like the idea of Lowe in that spot, I'd rather not give him a 4 year contract and it would essentially tie up all rotation spots for the next 4 years leaving no room for someone like Hughes.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Offseason!
Yay offseason!
Okay, not so much. Obviously the Yankees did not get it done this year, but we knew inevitably this would happen sooner or later. There were a lot of factors that fed into this...the Rays taking off this year rather than next year or in 2010 was one thing, the Yanks would have theoretically won the Wild Card if the Rays had won 88 games or less (which still would have been very impressive). Losing Wang for the year and Joba as a starter for the last two months were both huge, huge losses. Losing Posada's bat hurt as well, although Molina did a great job defensively and perhaps helped the pitching staff. Plus it didn't help that overall Cano pretty much sucked and Melky got really bad really fast. Other teams got hurt too, no excuses, but Wang and Posada missed most of the season rather than just a month or two, and their replacements were getting hurt as well. It makes things difficult. There were problems with the team anyway, but they shouldn't have been as inconsistent as they ended up being, and I suspect that if Wang, Posada, and Joba had stayed healthy, the Yankees might still be playing.
Or hey, maybe not. That's baseball.
So what do we have for next year?
I'd say the following players are sure things short of a trade (and I'm not gonna assume one at the moment):
1. Derek Jeter (Shortstop)
2. Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)
3. Johnny Damon (Left Field)
4. Hideki Matsui (DH)
5. Robinson Cano (Second Base)
6. Jorge Posada (Catcher)
7. Jose Molina (Backup Catcher)
8. Xavier Nady (Right Field probably)
9. Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder...I don't think he's a free agent yet)
10. Chien Ming Wang (Starter)
11. Joba Chamberlain (Starter)
12. Mariano Rivera (Closer)
And that's pretty much it. Those are the guys who, short of a trade, are guaranteed spots. I put Joba as a starter based on Cashman saying the plan now is for him to start all season, obviously that could change. I'm also not positive on Betemit's status, but I think he's signed through 2009. There's also some question on Posada, but for now I'm assuming he's a catcher.
That leaves a lot of work. Center field, first base, backup outfielder, additional bench player, three more starters, and probably 6 more guys in the bullpen. Obviously some will be filled with guys on the team. Phil Coke certainly looks likely to fill a bullpen spot, if he doesn't get turned into a starter. Brian Bruney also looked great and is a pretty good assumption for a bullpen spot. So let's add those two.
13. Phil Coke (Reliever)
14. Brian Bruney (Reliever)
Here's where we start venturing away from "Here are the sure things" into "What would you do?".
I think Brett Gardner is a good bet for some spot on this team. He's either going to be the starting centerfielder or the backup outfielder I suspect, depending on whether the Yankees sign a free agent centerfielder. Personally, I'd pass and give Gardner a shot. Risky, yes, because if he hits like he did when he first got called up, that's a huge hole that will do a lot of damage to the lineup. But if he can hit even halfway decent, his speed and strong defense will allow him to fill the centerfield and 9th in the order spots at least until Austin Jackson is ready. For me, I'm going to fill him into my starting centerfielder spot.
15. Brett Gardner (Centerfield)
The fourth outfielder should probably be either Melky or Christian. I've soured on Melky at this point, and I think it might be better to go with Christian, who can be used as a pinch runner as well.
16. Justin Christian (Backup Outfielder)
Let's see, back to that bullpen. Four more spots to fill, and no easy choices. Sanchez and Melancon both interest me, but they might not be ready. There's also Marte to consider, who has an option that may get picked up. He struggled in August but looked good in September. If Sanchez or Melancon seem ready, I'd let him walk and take the draft pick...if they're not, the Yanks might need him. Veras struggled toward the end of the year, but he was overall solid, and while he may not be a closer or even setup man, I think he can be a useful reliever. Edwar is more difficult, because he got REALLY terrible in August and September. Robertson didn't look fantastic but he did have a good strikeout rate; I'd give him another shot. A long man might be nice as well, but it could depend on who makes the team as a starter. I'll give it to Dan Giese for now because he did look solid enough and I think the potential starting rotation guys that don't make the team may be better served starting in AAA until they're needed.
17. Jose Veras (Reliever)
18. David Robertson (Reliever)
19. Damaso Marte (Reliever)
20. Dan Giese (Long Reliever)
That leaves us with three starters, a first baseman, and then the last bench guy. Start with an easy one, how about first base? Well, he may not want to come, but I throw money at Mark Teixeira. He's young enough, he's very good defensively, he's a good hitter as well.
21. Mark Teixeira (First Base)
How about those three starters? Again, one is an easy choice if he's willing to come here, and that's CC Sabathia. He gives the Yanks the ace they need, and costs only draft picks. I'm a bit concerned about overuse (over 250 innings pre playoffs? Yikes), but I'd still throw the money at him. That gives you CC as your number 1, Wang as your number 2. I'm making Joba the number 5 for these purposes due to his likely innings restrictions...he'll probably need to serve as the 5th starter to keep the innings down. So the Yanks still need a 3rd and 4th. First off, I'd like Mussina to return. I'm not so sure he will, however. If he agrees to then I absolutely resign him and plug him into the rotation. If he doesn't I suppose Andy Pettitte can replace him, but I'm somewhat concerned about Pettitte right now. For the other spot, you can use one of the kids (Aceves, Hughes), but you can argue relying on the kids without a real backup plan is what hurt the Yankees this year. Also Hughes might be best served by spending a little time in AAA. I'd like to sign an innings eater...perhaps Lowe or Garland. There's also a possibility that both Pettitte and Moose return, but I'd personally rather avoid Andy unless Mussina retires. I wouldn't want to sign both Lowe and Garland though, there's not much of a need for the Yankees to sign two middle rotation guys to "long term" contracts (by that I mean longer than the one or maybe two years Pettitte would probably want). Also, AJ Burnett has the most upside of any of these guys except CC, but may also cost more money/more years than is ideal, and the injury risk is there.
22. CC Sabathia (Starter)
23. Mike Mussina (Starter)
24. Derek Lowe (Starter)
And that last bench spot can go to anyone, it doesn't really matter at this point. Preferably a slugger of some kind, but I'm not sure who offhand.
This would give the Yanks a 2009 team of:
1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
4. Mark Teixeira (1B)
5. Xavier Nady (RF)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Jorge Posada (C)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Brett Gardner (LF)
Rotation:
1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien Ming Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Derek Lowe
5. Joba Chamberlain
Bullpen:
1. Mariano Rivera
2. Damaso Marte
3. Brian Bruney
4. Phil Coke
5. Jose Veras
6. David Robertson
7. Dan Giese
Bench:
1. Wilson Betemit
2. Justin Christian
3. Jose Molina
4. ?
Not too bad. The lineup isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the past, but it's potentially very solid and would help the improved starting rotation and (hopefully) improved bullpen.
Okay, not so much. Obviously the Yankees did not get it done this year, but we knew inevitably this would happen sooner or later. There were a lot of factors that fed into this...the Rays taking off this year rather than next year or in 2010 was one thing, the Yanks would have theoretically won the Wild Card if the Rays had won 88 games or less (which still would have been very impressive). Losing Wang for the year and Joba as a starter for the last two months were both huge, huge losses. Losing Posada's bat hurt as well, although Molina did a great job defensively and perhaps helped the pitching staff. Plus it didn't help that overall Cano pretty much sucked and Melky got really bad really fast. Other teams got hurt too, no excuses, but Wang and Posada missed most of the season rather than just a month or two, and their replacements were getting hurt as well. It makes things difficult. There were problems with the team anyway, but they shouldn't have been as inconsistent as they ended up being, and I suspect that if Wang, Posada, and Joba had stayed healthy, the Yankees might still be playing.
Or hey, maybe not. That's baseball.
So what do we have for next year?
I'd say the following players are sure things short of a trade (and I'm not gonna assume one at the moment):
1. Derek Jeter (Shortstop)
2. Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)
3. Johnny Damon (Left Field)
4. Hideki Matsui (DH)
5. Robinson Cano (Second Base)
6. Jorge Posada (Catcher)
7. Jose Molina (Backup Catcher)
8. Xavier Nady (Right Field probably)
9. Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder...I don't think he's a free agent yet)
10. Chien Ming Wang (Starter)
11. Joba Chamberlain (Starter)
12. Mariano Rivera (Closer)
And that's pretty much it. Those are the guys who, short of a trade, are guaranteed spots. I put Joba as a starter based on Cashman saying the plan now is for him to start all season, obviously that could change. I'm also not positive on Betemit's status, but I think he's signed through 2009. There's also some question on Posada, but for now I'm assuming he's a catcher.
That leaves a lot of work. Center field, first base, backup outfielder, additional bench player, three more starters, and probably 6 more guys in the bullpen. Obviously some will be filled with guys on the team. Phil Coke certainly looks likely to fill a bullpen spot, if he doesn't get turned into a starter. Brian Bruney also looked great and is a pretty good assumption for a bullpen spot. So let's add those two.
13. Phil Coke (Reliever)
14. Brian Bruney (Reliever)
Here's where we start venturing away from "Here are the sure things" into "What would you do?".
I think Brett Gardner is a good bet for some spot on this team. He's either going to be the starting centerfielder or the backup outfielder I suspect, depending on whether the Yankees sign a free agent centerfielder. Personally, I'd pass and give Gardner a shot. Risky, yes, because if he hits like he did when he first got called up, that's a huge hole that will do a lot of damage to the lineup. But if he can hit even halfway decent, his speed and strong defense will allow him to fill the centerfield and 9th in the order spots at least until Austin Jackson is ready. For me, I'm going to fill him into my starting centerfielder spot.
15. Brett Gardner (Centerfield)
The fourth outfielder should probably be either Melky or Christian. I've soured on Melky at this point, and I think it might be better to go with Christian, who can be used as a pinch runner as well.
16. Justin Christian (Backup Outfielder)
Let's see, back to that bullpen. Four more spots to fill, and no easy choices. Sanchez and Melancon both interest me, but they might not be ready. There's also Marte to consider, who has an option that may get picked up. He struggled in August but looked good in September. If Sanchez or Melancon seem ready, I'd let him walk and take the draft pick...if they're not, the Yanks might need him. Veras struggled toward the end of the year, but he was overall solid, and while he may not be a closer or even setup man, I think he can be a useful reliever. Edwar is more difficult, because he got REALLY terrible in August and September. Robertson didn't look fantastic but he did have a good strikeout rate; I'd give him another shot. A long man might be nice as well, but it could depend on who makes the team as a starter. I'll give it to Dan Giese for now because he did look solid enough and I think the potential starting rotation guys that don't make the team may be better served starting in AAA until they're needed.
17. Jose Veras (Reliever)
18. David Robertson (Reliever)
19. Damaso Marte (Reliever)
20. Dan Giese (Long Reliever)
That leaves us with three starters, a first baseman, and then the last bench guy. Start with an easy one, how about first base? Well, he may not want to come, but I throw money at Mark Teixeira. He's young enough, he's very good defensively, he's a good hitter as well.
21. Mark Teixeira (First Base)
How about those three starters? Again, one is an easy choice if he's willing to come here, and that's CC Sabathia. He gives the Yanks the ace they need, and costs only draft picks. I'm a bit concerned about overuse (over 250 innings pre playoffs? Yikes), but I'd still throw the money at him. That gives you CC as your number 1, Wang as your number 2. I'm making Joba the number 5 for these purposes due to his likely innings restrictions...he'll probably need to serve as the 5th starter to keep the innings down. So the Yanks still need a 3rd and 4th. First off, I'd like Mussina to return. I'm not so sure he will, however. If he agrees to then I absolutely resign him and plug him into the rotation. If he doesn't I suppose Andy Pettitte can replace him, but I'm somewhat concerned about Pettitte right now. For the other spot, you can use one of the kids (Aceves, Hughes), but you can argue relying on the kids without a real backup plan is what hurt the Yankees this year. Also Hughes might be best served by spending a little time in AAA. I'd like to sign an innings eater...perhaps Lowe or Garland. There's also a possibility that both Pettitte and Moose return, but I'd personally rather avoid Andy unless Mussina retires. I wouldn't want to sign both Lowe and Garland though, there's not much of a need for the Yankees to sign two middle rotation guys to "long term" contracts (by that I mean longer than the one or maybe two years Pettitte would probably want). Also, AJ Burnett has the most upside of any of these guys except CC, but may also cost more money/more years than is ideal, and the injury risk is there.
22. CC Sabathia (Starter)
23. Mike Mussina (Starter)
24. Derek Lowe (Starter)
And that last bench spot can go to anyone, it doesn't really matter at this point. Preferably a slugger of some kind, but I'm not sure who offhand.
This would give the Yanks a 2009 team of:
1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
4. Mark Teixeira (1B)
5. Xavier Nady (RF)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Jorge Posada (C)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Brett Gardner (LF)
Rotation:
1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien Ming Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Derek Lowe
5. Joba Chamberlain
Bullpen:
1. Mariano Rivera
2. Damaso Marte
3. Brian Bruney
4. Phil Coke
5. Jose Veras
6. David Robertson
7. Dan Giese
Bench:
1. Wilson Betemit
2. Justin Christian
3. Jose Molina
4. ?
Not too bad. The lineup isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the past, but it's potentially very solid and would help the improved starting rotation and (hopefully) improved bullpen.
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