Comparing the AL East teams

After constantly hearing how the Yankees are sure to finish dead last, I thought I'd compare the 5 AL East teams, position by position, to try to get a better idea of just how the Yankees line up, position by position, with the other teams in the division. The Rules: Anyone on the DL to start the season is not counted unless they are expected back very soon. Hence, Hughes will be considered as the #4 starter, but Teixeira will not be considered as the first baseman.

#1 Starter:

1. David Price, Rays: Probably the best starter in the division. Both Cy Young winners are in the AL East now, but Price is the one I see coming closer to repeating.

2. CC Sabathia, Yankees: Sabathia's durability finally showed some cracks last year, but even with injuries and missing 5-6 starts, he still threw 200 innings with an ERA in the low 3's.

3. RA Dickey, Blue Jays: The NL Cy Young winner had a fantastic year and I think, to some extent, it was for real. However, I just can't see him repeating that, and knuckleball or no, you're talking about a 38 year old moving to the American League. I think some people don't realize how good he was in 2010 and 2011...he's not a one year wonder. However, that strikeout rate that helped propel him to the Cy Young is way higher than anything he's done before. He could move up this list, but I can't reasonably put him above Price or Sabathia.

4. Jon Lester, Red Sox: Lester was not good at all last season, the story of a lot of Red Sox players. Lester's strikeout rate and home runs allowed have been trending in the wrong direction for years, but his biggest issue last year seemed to be a ton more hits falling in. I'm not so sure he returns to his former low 3 ERA self, but I do expect him to be much better than last year.

5. Jason Hammel, Orioles: The real question with Hammel is did he get very lucky last year, or did he figure something out? Here's a guy with a career ERA (AFTER last season) of 4.78. Before last year, he only managed to be even an average pitcher one time. His 2012 season was excellent, with a much better strikeout rate, many less hits allowed, and less home runs allowed than ever before. It is worth pointing out he had been in Colorado from 2009-2011. Do I think he's as good as he was last year, no. Do I think he's better than he was prior to 2012? I do, but I can't reasonably put him anywhere but fifth.

#2 Starter:

1. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees: I'm a big fan of Kuroda, and was thrilled when the Yankees signed him. He gave the Yankees a great season, and I feel comfortable putting him at the top of this list. The one real concern is his age, but he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down yet.

2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: Look, I'm not going to sit here and say Hellickson isn't for real. I thought that after his 36 innings in 2010. I thought that after he put up an ERA under 3 in 2011. Now, though, after 2 years and 402 career innings with an ERA of 3.06, at some point we have to acknowledge that he has some ability to "outpitch" his mediocre hit, walk, strikeout, and home run rates. Part of that is undoubtedly his home ballpark and the defense behind him, but he does still have a 3.32 ERA on the road in his career. However, because of those bad rates, I feel like, even if he does have a strong defense, a good home ballpark, and some ability to control his hits, he's walking a tightrope that sooner or later he'll fall off of.

3. Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays: Now here's a guy who finally may have put it together. His strikeout rate plummeted (although it's still strong), but perhaps that was actually to his benefit. His walk rate has been improving for years now. I don't feel comfortable putting him any higher than 3 when we're talking about 124 innings one year, but I do think it's possible he's a legitimate #2 starter.

4. Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles: Chen had a decent rookie season. His home run rate was too high, but everything else was pretty solid. I'm not sure he'll repeat it, but I'm interested to see how he does this year.

5. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: I'm not really a big Buchholz fan. His strikeout rate isn't very good, he has trouble staying healthy, his home run rate is mediocre to bad...he had some success in 2010 and 2011, but a lot of that seemed to be luck. I originally had him above Chen, but I ended up moving him down because Chen's walk rate was better than Buchholz has ever had, and his strikeout rate was better than Buchholz has had since 2008, not to mention he immediately threw more innings than Buchholz has ever managed. He could move up in the list, but I just don't trust him.

#3 Starter:

1. Matt Moore, Rays: This was one of the tougher ones. I considered Pettitte here, but his injury last year, plus the defense behind him, made me move Moore to the first spot. I don't know that Moore will be as amazing as he's been hyped to be in the past, but I think he's going to be a very solid starter.

2. Andy Pettitte, Yankees: It's somewhat odd that after 4 straight years of ERAs over 4, Andy's last 200 innings, spread out over 3 years (with him not even playing in 2011) have seen an ERA barely above 3.00. He's limited his hits but otherwise hasn't done much else, which could suggest some luck is involved. Still, he's a proven guy who, when healthy, has been great since 2009. Unfortunately, at his age and coming off an injury, he does have to be considered a potential injury risk.

3. Ryan Dempster, Red Sox: I debated moving Dempster past Pettitte, based mainly on having less of an injury history (although he did have an issue last year, but it wasn't as bad as Pettitte's). I hesitated because of how bad he was with the Rangers last year (albeit in a small sample size). After an entire career in the NL, it might take him longer to adapt to the American League. I think his performance in the end will be somewhere in between his 2011 and 2012 numbers.

4. Mark Buehrle, Blue Jays: First off, I based the starters on who the teams have chosen to start in order...the Jays have Buehrle listed as their #3, so that's who goes here. I'm not a Buehrle guy at all. He's had plenty of success in his career, clearly, and he's a good bet to throw 200 innings, but he'll have a poor strikeout rate and a ton of hits allowed, and he doesn't actually have an incredibly low home run rate. He doesn't walk guys and he's durable, but that's about it.

5. Miguel Gonzalez, Orioles: Another Oriole who I think got very lucky last year. He's not a terrible pitcher and I could see him being better than Buehrle, but until he throws more than 105 innings, I can't put him any higher.

#4 Starter:

1. Josh Johnson, Blue Jays: I actually think he'll be much better than Mark Buehrle, but hey, he's listed as their #4 starter, so this is where he goes. The one issue with Josh Johnson is, obviously, health. However, while he does seem to be good for an injury every year, he's been a LITTLE more durable than people think. He's thrown 180+ innings 3 out of the past 4 years...not great, but certainly not the 100 innings or less I suspect most people think he puts up every year. His upside is clearly the highest of the #4 guys (and the #3 guys for that matter, except for perhaps Matt Moore). I think he's for real and I think he stays relatively healthy...he's the #1 here by a lot.

2. Phil Hughes, Yankees: I actually would have put Hughes lower, because while I've always been a big Hughes fan and rooted for him to succeed, he just has never quite put it all together. That said, the 180-190 innings with a low 4 ERA he gave the Yankees last year and in 2010 (his two mostly healthy years) are better than those ranked below him. He'll start the year on the DL but is already throwing, and is only expected to miss a start or two at most. The home run rate is terrible with Hughes, but the walkrate is solid to strong and he strikes out a good amount of guys. If he can start keeping the ball in the park he could be the Yankees second best starter after CC, but at this point that might require a move to a team with a bigger ballpark.

3. Alex Cobb, Rays: It's tough to determine whether Cobb should have been 2 or 3 here, since we don't have as big a track record, but I do like Cobb. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outpitched Hughes this year. That said, I don't think we're talking about a future ace here. He's a solid middle of the rotation guy.

4. Felix Doubront, Red Sox: Doubront had a great strikeout rate last year, but the bottom line is he gives up too many hits and walks way too many guys with a mediocre to bad home run rate. I could see him having a solid year if he can get the walks down to where they were in the minor leagues, but I can't place him any higher until we see something out of him.

5. Jake Arrieta, Orioles: Arrieta actually had really solid numbers last year...if you look at his strikeout to walk rate (3.11). Unfortunately, he also had a 6.20 ERA, allowed way too many hits, and enters the year with a career 5.33 ERA. There's only so much a great strikeout to walk rate can do for you until you start showing some results. I might have considered him higher if he had an ERA in, say, the mid 4's, but 6.20? Can't do it.

#5 Starter:

1. Chris Tillman, Orioles: Hey, the Orioles are out of the basement! First off, this was probably the toughest group to pick. This is less a thumbs up for Tillman and more an indictment of the group as a whole. That said, I do think Tillman is headed in the right direction. Like practically every Oriole starter, I don't expect a repeat of 2012, but I also think he'll be much better than he was from 2009-2011. The walk rate may go back up (or perhaps he figured something out), and he'll probably give up more hits, but I don't think you'll see a hit rate well over 10 per 9 again.

2. Ivan Nova, Yankees: This could actually be David Phelps instead, once Hughes comes back, but my guess is Nova gets the initial shot. I actually like Phelps a bit better, but whatever. Nova had a bad 2012 after a strong 2011, but he actually seemed to make some strides in his strikeout rate. His biggest problem last year was home runs, but this is a guy with a career minor league home run rate of 0.6 per 9, with a very strong home run rate in 2011 as well. I'm not sure the strikeout rate is real, but I don't believe last years home run rate was either, so I think he'll be better. I've never been a Nova fan, but he could be a decent #5 starter.

3. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays: Mostly based on a decent strikeout rate, because he doesn't have much else going for him. If not for Lackey's health issues he wouldn't even be this high.

4. John Lackey, Red Sox: He has the potential to be the highest in this group, but there are serious problems here. He's had a terrible ERA in his Red Sox career and is coming off missing an entire season. In one way he's almost the anti Josh Johnson in terms of reputation, as prior to 2011 I recall him having a reputation of being a durable guy, but actually looking at it, he's missed time in 4 of his last 5 seasons (including all of last year) and the one time he actually threw 200 innings during that span, they were mediocre. He's gotta come back and show something before I can move him higher.

5. The Artist Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona (AKA Roberto Hernandez), Rays: So let me get this straight, here. The Yankees lose a couple guys to free agency and a couple to injury, and it's the end of the world. The Rays lose their centerfielder and their second best starter who pitched as well as an ace at times, replacing the latter with FAUSTO CARMONA, and nobody says a word? Rays win a billion games and easily destroy the Yankees? Oh, okay. Carmona sucks. He'll get a slight boost from a strong defense but he's bad.

The Overall Rotations:

1. Yankees: This was VERY close with the Rays, and I nearly gave the Rays the edge because of their better defense (I'm not including home ballpark because I'm not really trying to compare who pitches in a better park here, the Yankee opponents will have to pitch in Yankee Stadium too, and the Rays opponents will pitch at their home park as well. Defense is different though, it's team specific). The Yankees have their ace in Sabathia, two very solid starters in Kuroda and Pettitte, and a few high upside guys in Hughes and Nova with a solid #6 in Phelps. I give them the slight edge.

2. Rays: The Rays pitchers have a great defense behind them, the best pitcher in the AL East, one of the highest upside guys in the AL East, and a couple of solid guys who benefit from that defense. They also have Fausto Carmona. So they're #2.

3. Blue Jays: The Jays made some great moves to improve their staff, and I would not be surprised if they ranked #1. Johnson isn't quite as horribly injury prone as some think (albeit not durable), Dickey isn't the one year wonder a lot of people think, and Morrow could realistically have made some strides. There are just so many question marks in every single guy in that rotation though that I can't reasonably put them above the Yankees or Rays.

4. Red Sox: I definitely think we'll see better seasons from Lester and Buchholz this year, and a healthy Lackey, even if he's not good, could at least keep the Red Sox from running out terrible pitchers as they were forced to do in September 2011. In the end though, they just don't have the depth or the upside of the three rotations above them.

5. Orioles: Their rotation is really not very good. They could get some help from the minors, but they had a ton of starters get ridiculously lucky last year, and the only one I think even has a chance of repeating what he did is Chen (and he was solid, not dominant). Not a fan at all.

That's it for tonight, next time I'll look at the bullpen and maybe the offenses as well.