Comparing the AL East Teams, Part 2

Yesterday I compared the starting rotations for the AL East teams; today I''ll look at the closers, and start the position rankings. Bullpens in general fluctuate so much that I'm reluctant to grade the rest of the bullpens...it's difficult to see who is going to pitch in what situation for many of them. The closers are fairly straight forward though.

Closer:

1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: It's interesting just how good the AL East is for closers. Every single team has a guy I consider a legitimate guy. In this case, the only thing that gives me pause about Mariano is last years injury; however, it shouldn't effect his pitching. I fully expect him to return to the old Mariano.

2. Fernando Rodney, Rays: I really, really hesitated on this one, because Fernando Rodney of 2007-2011 is easily the worst of the 5 pitchers we're looking at here. But he was so incredibly dominant last year that I can't put him lower. That said, there was definitely some luck involved, and his walk rate last year was mind boggingly lower than he's ever had before, i just can't see him repeating it. Still, with the Rays defense behind him and the possibility that he did figure something out, I'll rank him here.

3. Casey Janssen, Blue Jays: He took over partway through the year and pitched great. He's been borderline elite for two seasons now, and had a fantastic strikeout to walk ratio last year. The only thing that I'm concerned about is offseason shoulder surgery.

4. Joel Hanrahan, Red Sox: Hanrahan is a very good pitcher who has been a strong closer for two years now. He's moving to more of a hitters ballpark in a hitters league, but I do expect him to be good. That walk rate keeps me from moving him higher, though.

5. Jim Johnson, Orioles: Johnson had a great year in 2012, and I think he's better than most people think. That said, he doesn't strike guys out. I really considered moving him above Hanrahan, but I decided not to based on that. Honestly, though, the AL East is strong in closers.

Combined with the starting rotation, I'm fairly comfortable saying the Yankees and Rays are neck and neck for best pitching in the AL East, and I give the slight edge to the Yankees. I would also not be surprised at all if the Blue Jays ended the year with the best pitching; they have the talent. The Red Sox are a step behind but still have solid pitching. The Orioles have a decent bullpen but a lot of starters that probably overachieved last year; we'll see if I'm wrong about that, but I'd rank them last for now.

The hitting is likely a different story, so let's start ranking that. I'm going by CBSSports projected lineups as of a couple days ago, if I'm wrong about who is playing the position I'll correct it.

First Base:

1. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: First base is really ugly in the AL East, with Encarnacion being the only good one here. I don't think he quite repeats last year, but he's far and away the best first baseman in the division. I'd rank him higher even if Teixeira returns fairly quickly and shows no ill effects.

2. Mike Napoli, Red Sox: I'm a Napoli fan but the injury issue is a problem. Still, I think he's better than the other options here.

3. Chris Davis, Orioles: Chris Davis is not an amazing hitter. His average is at best acceptable and he doesn't get on base a ton. He does, however, hit home runs, and that alone puts him third on the list. I also think last years numbers were not that out of the ordinary and are repeatable for him.

4. Lyle Overbay/Kevin Youkilis, Yankees: I put both since the current word is to expect a platoon, with Youkilis playing first against lefties and Overbay against righties. I'll cover Youkilis more when we get to third base. Overbay is what he is; he's not very good at this stage, but he'll play some solid defense, and perhaps Yankee Stadium plus sitting more against lefties will help his overall numbers.

5. James Loney, Rays: Loney is more or less the same as Overbay, I just think Overbay has a bit more upside, and Loney is coming off a worse year.


Second Base:

1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: A legitimate MVP candidate. I'm undecided whether he'll take a bit of a hit this year due to a worse lineup around him (less chances to drive in runners, less chances of being driven in) or if he'll do just as well if not better by getting his numbers with RiSP up (he's done it in the past, so bad luck may have been involved). Either way he's the best second baseman in the division.

2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: The clear #2 second baseman after Cano. A great player who had a bit of an off year, but I expect him to keep doing what he does.

3. Kelly Johnson, Rays: I'm not a Kelly Johnson fan, at all, and I debated putting Bonifacio higher, but Johnson has a lot more power and will still steal you 10-15 bases. He won't get on base much and won't come anywhere close to even Pedroia's power, let alone Cano, but he's not worthless.

4. Emilio Bonifacio, Blue Jays: I don't really like Bonifacio, but he's going to give the Jays a lot of steals with an okay (not great, but not below .300 either) OBP. Nothing special but I'd still put him here.

5. Brian Roberts, Orioles: I REALLY wanted to rank Roberts higher, but he hasn't had anywhere in the ballpark of a full seasons stats since 2009. If you add up 2010-2012, you STILL don't get a full seasons stats, and when he's actually managed to play the last two years, he's been awful. He has the upside to be the #3 second baseman in the division, but he really has to stay healthy and actually show something before I can move him higher.

That's all for now, but I'll post more later.