Tuesday, December 16, 2008

The moves so far...

May as well update this thing from time to time.

My thoughts on the moves so far:

1. Sabathia: Great! Couldn't be happier about it. Are there some potential concerns, sure, he did have a ridiculous amount of innings the past two years. On the other hand CC has yet to show he can't handle it. I don't like the "poor postseason numbers" argument. It's a small sample size. 2007 could have been a case of "He's thrown way more innings than ever before and it's catching up". In 2008 he threw even more, and he was working on 3 days rest for something like 4 starts in a row. If it was pressure getting to him, why was he pitching well for the Brewers down the stretch in a tight pennant race? I think CC will be fine.

2. AJ Burnett: I've gone back and forth on Burnett since the season ended, but I'm currently in the pro Burnett corner. I wish it could have been for 4 years rather than 5, but otherwise I think the potential upside here trumps anything else. Does he miss starts most years? Yes, although I tend to think this has been overblown. He's still got excellent stuff. Also, I've seen people point out that, okay, maybe he misses a few starts during the season, but the possibility of his stuff (and his apparent ability to pitch well in big games, albeit never in the postseason...we're pretty much talking about his strong performances against the Yankees and Boston I think) in the playoffs could make up for that. The deal could work out great, it could be terrible, but I think given the choices, this was probably the best move.

3. Nick Swisher: I like this move, quite a bit actually. I think last year was more flukeish than anything. Swisher had some bad luck, for starters. He also wasn't comfortable leading off or playing centerfield. He also has stated that he felt he wasn't adjusted to playing for a new team, and claims he learned a lot last year.

From a pure statistical perspective, I expect Swisher to improve which means we'll get a solid OBP and solid power at first base with some solid defense as well. But one thing I like that I normally wouldn't care about is that Swisher seems really enthusiastic to be here. Maybe it's just his natural personality, but reading posts he has made on his website or hearing him in an interview, he doesn't sound like someone who is *cue robot voice* 'glad he is a Yankee and looking forward to the opportunity to win'. He sounds genuinely excited about being a Yankee. I'm looking forward to seeing Swisher in action.

4. Damaso Marte: Resigned him for 3 years. I'm alright with it, although this is another move I've flipped on. I did want Marte back this season so I don't think I would have just offered arbitration and let him go elsewhere, but I thought picking up his option for one year (albeit at a slightly higher salary for 2009) and taking the picks at the end of the season would have been a better option. I still think that might be the case, but I have no problem with Marte returning. Marte got lit up by Texas early in August, and then struggled a bit with the Angels and Twins later that month, which soured a lot of people on him, but he was very good from that point on. While the kids in the bullpen showed a lot last season, having one veteran that might actually be able to get the job done in a setup role is nice.

I think that's essentially it for moves (unless I'm forgetting one).

As far as other rumored moves:

I'd definitely trade Melky for Cameron. Melky is what he is at this point, and I think last years Melky is probably more like the real Melky. I also like Gardner, but I'm not sold on whether he'll be able to man CF full time. I like him better as the 4th outfielder. Cameron's problem is he costs 10 million for the one season, but I think it's a move that the Yankees should consider making. If Gardner/Melky are ineffective in center again, the team is one injury to a Posada/Matsui/Damon/A-Rod/etc. away from being crippled. Cameron gives you some insurance.

Teixeira: I just don't see this happening. Do I like Teixeira, yes. Signing him gives you a great hitter at first base for a long time (although he could of course decline). Then you can move Swisher to right field and either trade Nady or make him your fourth outfielder. The issue that a lot of people are failing to understand when arguing that the Yankees shouldn't trade for Cameron because they can use that 10 million toward Teixeira is that there's a lot more to it than just this year. If Teixeira approached the Yankees right now and said "Okay, I'll take a one year deal for 23 million, let's do that!" I have no doubt the Yankees would have him signed tomorrow. But tying up 70-75 million in 3 players for 7 years is not a good idea no matter how good they are. There's no flexibility there.

Manny: I really don't know. The Yankees could use another hitter, but is Manny really the answer? He's a great hitter, no question. But you have to trade someone to make room. If it's Nady, fine, but who plays right, Damon or Manny? Not sure either is ideal, that's a lot of ground for Manny to cover and that's a lot of guys going first to third on Damon's arm. So you can move Damon, your leadoff hitter, or you can move Matsui, who probably can't play the field full time and so would have to be traded to an AL team with an opening at DH that believes they can contend this year and has 13 million to spend. Oh, and Matsui has to agree to it. Doesn't seem too likely to me. Plus Manny's a headcase. And how well will he and Girardi really get along? Seems like a big personality clash waiting to happen there.

5th rotation spot: Ideally, just give it to Pettitte and call it a day. There seems to be concerns over Sheets medical records (not surprisingly) and while I was interested in him before Burnett signed, I'm less thrilled with the idea of two guys with injury question marks like that. I also don't like the idea of Lowe in that spot, I'd rather not give him a 4 year contract and it would essentially tie up all rotation spots for the next 4 years leaving no room for someone like Hughes.