Thursday, January 31, 2008

Morgan Ensberg

Add Ensberg to the list of players who could potentially make the 25 man. Will he? I'm not sure. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, then it's probably a no brainer. If he is, I think Ensberg still has a chance as he's probably the best hitter out of anyone else who could fill the final bench spot (if the Yankees decide to carry 12 pitchers), but it may not make much sense. He'd essentially fill the same role as Shelley Duncan, except he can play third base instead of the corner outfield spots.

I can see a scenario where you have both Duncan and Ensberg starting against a tough lefty (with one at first base and the other DHing, with both Giambi and Damon sitting), but I don't think that's too likely. Still, Ensberg is as much a possibility as any of the others based on his bat and potential.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Santana

The long national nightmare is almost over. After months of speculation, news stories, speculation, trade offers, speculation, and oh, did I mention speculation, Johan Santana has been freed from his confines in Minnesota and will be headed to New York. But not, as hoped/feared (depending on which side you take), as a member of the Yankees.

Seems to me that the Twins GM did overplay his hand. The Yankees apparently were out of it entirely at this point, and there are differing reports on whether Boston was really offering much at this point. I was never crazy about the Red Sox offer, but it was probably more of a sure thing than what the Twins had to settle for. And maybe it's just me, but I thought Hughes was the best player offered in any deal, and perhaps the Twins made an error in judgement by waiting too long, as that window closed prety quickly.

But right now I'm glad it went down the way it did. Boston doesn't get Santana and the Yankees get to keep Hughes (not to mention Melky, Kennedy, and any other prospects that might have been involved). Would Santana have been nice, sure, but on the other hand he also would have cost a lot of money and expected a long contract. If you're going to give it to any pitcher, it's got to be Santana, but still. I'm a big fan of Phil's, and I'm glad I'll get to see him pitch as a Yankee.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

The Relievers

First, rumors are that Cano and the Yankees are close on a deal for a 4 year, 30 million dollar contract, with the possibility of one or two option years. Without the option years it's somewhat pointless, just a means to avoid going to arbitration. With them, it could be a potentially very valuable deal. Smart move, in my opinion.

Last time I looked at the spots in the 25 man roster that were likely set in stone, as well as who might fill the final offensive spots. Now I'll take a look at which pitchers are going to be attending Spring Training (as of now) and who might find themselves on the major league roster to start the season. For the purposes of this, I didn't bother with Carl Pavano, Humberto Sanchez, or Andrew Brackman, all on the 40 man roster. Brackman won't even be ready for the minors until 2009 in all likelihood (certainly not to start the season), and Pavano probably won't be back with the Yankees at all, and again, certainly not before the end of the season. Sanchez is an interesting case as he could have an impact with the Yankees this season, but he won't be ready to start the season. I'll also seperate the guys into righties and lefties, simply because one of the lefties may end up making the team even though the righties are more plentiful and probably could be better.

RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS

Ross Ohlendorf: Ohlendorf received a September callup in 2007 and pitched very well (albeit in 6 innings). He struggled in his one inning in the playoffs, but the fact that he even made the roster should tell you something. Ohlendorf seems like a decent bet to make the team to start the season, although it's not out of the question that he could go back to the minors for a little while.

Edwar Ramirez: I really don't know what to make of Edwar. His changeup is just disgustingly good and his minor league numbers are fantastic. If he had a second good pitch I'd write the poor major league numbers off as extenuating circumstances and give him a shot right out of Spring Training. But realistically, Edwar's fastball just isn't that great. If hitters are able to sit on it, he's going to have a problem in the majors, no matter how great his changeup is. He's got as good a shot as anyone to make the team out of Spring Training, but he's another guy who I expect to be on a short leash. I'd love to see him succeed, especially with that great changeup, but he may need something more.

Brian Bruney: Bruney might be out of options, I'm actually not sure. When he can keep his control even somewhat in line, he does have very good stuff, and Yankee fans saw that from time to time last season. Unfortunately, he doesn't always manage that very well, and Yankee fans saw that as well. He's also got a good chance to make the team if he has a strong spring, but he, like almost everyone on this list, is going to be on a very short leash.

Mark Melancon: Added for the sake of completeness. He won't make the team out of Spring Training, that's pretty much a certainty. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him on the Yankees later this season, if he has a strong showing in the minors.

Chris Britton: Poor Chris couldn't buy a callup last season it seemed. And when he did make it, he pitched fairly well for the most part but still wasn't trusted. Perhaps Girardi will be different. Britton actually has some success in the AL East (he had a good season in Baltimore), so he really should get a shot at least.

Jeff Marquez: Nope, he's likely to be back in the minors as a starter, although he could see time during the season in case of injuries.

Jose Veras: Here's another possibility after a decent September (he was better than his final numbers show, almost all of his earned runs came in a single game). He too made the playoff roster, so like Ohlendorf, that does show the Yankees are high enough on him that he likely has a shot at making the 25 man out of Spring Training.

Jonathan Albaladejo: For those who don't recall, he's the guy who came over from the Nationals in the Tyler Clippard trade. He did decent but not great in AA last season, but was excellent in AAA and had a strong September with the Nats. He's certainly a possibility to make it out of Spring Training, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him sent to AAA so the Yankees can see firsthand what they got before sending him to the majors (not unlike Chris Britton).

Jeff Karstens: If Kennedy and Joba are both on the roster, then forget it. If not, then Karstens is a possibility for a long relief role. I'm not a huge fan though, to be honest. He struggled greatly last year when not injured, and I don't think he's a great option out of the bullpen.

Darrell Rasner: Another guy Yankee fans have seen for the past couple of years, Rasner was actually taken off the 40 man, which may not be a good sign for how the organization views him. However, I like Rasner. Realistically the Yankee organization is not the place for him, since there are way too many starting options above him. However, if Kennedy (or Joba I suppose) starts the season in the minors, I think Rasner would be an excellent option for a long relief role.

Daniel McCutchen: Nope. He could end up as a reliever, but at the moment he's a starter. He'll head back to the minors for now, but it's not out of the question we could see him this year. I'd expect him in 2009 though.

Alan Horne: Here's an interesting one. Horne had an excellent season in the minors last year as a starter, and he could continue down that path. However, there are a few guys ahead of him, and Horne does have stuff that would probably translate well to the bullpen. I doubt he makes it out of Spring Training, I expect the Yankees to have him continue to pitch as a starter in the minors for the time being, but he's a guy we could see sometime during the season, as a reliever or starter depending on how he is needed.

Steven Jackson: I doubt he has any real shot at making the team as a reliever short of something very bizarre happening. Eventually I suppose it's a possibility, but he still has things to work on in the minors.

Steven White: Here's someone I think we will see sometime this season, and perhaps even right out of Spring Training if he does very well. White's been with the organization for a bit now and just finished a season at AAA. The Yankees are going to need to make a decision about him soon. He's probably going to be blocked as a starter unless a few injuries occur, so the Yanks may as well try him out in the bullpen.

Scott Patterson: Patterson has done very well in the minors so far, but he's not thought as highly of as many others. He should have a shot though if he does well in Spring Training, and unless he starts struggling in the minors, he's a good bet to at least be given a chance to do something in the majors at some point this season.

Daniel Giese: The nice thing about Giese is that he doesn't walk a lot of people (remember how frustrated we as Yankee fans would get when we had Farnsworth, Proctor, and Bruney all walking the ballpark?). He will give up his share of hits, but he's got a chance at making the bullpen. If not, we could still see him at some point this year.

Scott Strickland: Strickland is interesting in that he actually has some major league experience (although all in the NL), where he did pretty well. But he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2005, and there only for 4 innings. I expect him to head to AAA, but he could be an option at some point.

LEFT HANDED PITCHERS


Kei Igawa: At some point the Yankees are likely to do something with Igawa, they're paying him enough. He may initially be viewed as a starting option in cae of injury to multiple pitchers, but at some point they should try to either trade him or see if he can work in the bullpen at all. I'd be shocked if he made the team out of spring training, but we'll probably end up seeing him at some point this season, in some role.

Heath Phillips: I suppose he's a possibility, but it doesn't seem too likely.

Chase Wright: Here's someone we saw as a starter last season. I expect Chase to be converted to the bullpen, and it might be pretty soon, but I wouldn't expect him to make the team out of spring training.

Sean Henn: Henn occasionally showed some flashes of brilliance, but overall has struggled everytime he pitched in the majors. He's quickly running out of chances, and he may not even get one this time. However, he's probably a better bet to make the team (should they decide they need a left handed reliever) than Wright, Phillips, or Igawa.

Billy Traber: Traber may not be a great bet and normally would be ignored, however, if you look at his career splits against lefties, they're quite good. He may not be ideal, especially since the splits against righties are, well, not at all good. But if it's between him or Henn, he has a good chance at making the team.

That's everyone. So who do the Yankees go with? I honestly don't know. I think Ohlendorf is going to make the team, so that's one of the three remaining spots. I'm also going to guess Bruney makes it, because I believe he's out of options. If it was me, I'd probably cut ties with him or at least try to send him down to the minors, but we'll see. That leaves one spot. I'd rather see a guy like Britton, Albaladejo, or Veras get a shot (or perhaps Edwar), but if the Yankees choose to go with a lefty, I'll guess that Traber makes it.

So my best guess for a final roster:

1. Jorge Posada
2. Robinson Cano
3. Derek Jeter
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Johnny Damon
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Shelley Duncan
11. Jason Giambi
12. Jose Molina
13. Nick Green
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Phil Hughes
17. Joba Chamberlain
18. Mike Mussina
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Kyle Farnsworth
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Ian Kennedy
23. Ross Ohlendorf
24. Brian Bruney
25. Billy Traber

Nick Green could be replaced with Alberto Gonzalez, Kennedy could be replaced by Rasner or Karstens, and those last three could be switched out with any number of guys, but I think that's a good possibility for the opening day roster, if there are no more trades and people stay healthy.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Opening Day Roster?

We're not there yet, but we're getting closer, so let's take a look at who will be on the team, who is likely to be on the team, and who might fill those remaining spots on the 25 man roster come the start of the 2008 season. This, of course, is assuming no more trades and everyone stays healthy.



LOCKS

Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Jose Molina, Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Wilson Betemit

The first 17 guys are fairly obvious and don't really need any explanation. The only one I want to add anything to is Betemit. Cashman seemed to imply there was going to be a race for the 1st base spot, which Betemit will likely be a part of...however, it's a certainty that even if someone else ends up as the full time first baseman (as opposed to the platoon that currently seems likely), Betemit will be on the team in some role.

NEAR LOCKS
These guys are almost certainly going to be on the team, but there's just enough of a question mark that I didn't want to include them above.

Shelley Duncan: Assuming health, Shelley's almost certain to make the team. Currently, it seems that he'll end up as part of a first base platoon with Wilson Betemit...his ability to also play the outfield in an emergency is helpful as well. However, if someone else (Juan Miranda for example) manages to win the first base job, Duncan isn't an absolute lock (like Betemit is) to be on the 25 man in some way. It's extremely likely Duncan breaks camp with the team, but you never know.

Joba Chamberlain: Again, almost certain that Joba enters the 2008 season on the major league team in some capacity, either as a reliever or a starter. However, it's not absolutely out of the question that, in an attempt to have him ease back into the starters role, to work on the changeup, and to keep his innings down, that the Yankees could send him down to AAA for a month to start the season. At the end of 2007 I thought this was the best option, but the Yankees seem to imply that he will definitely be on the team in some capacity right from day one. However, just in case, I include him here.

Mike Mussina: I include him here only because of that slight possibility he looks so god awful in spring training, while Joba and Kennedy look so dominant, that the Yankees just cut their losses. Extremely, extremely unlikely, but there it is.

That gives us 20 guys. 12 hitters, 8 pitchers (including 5 starters). So how about those other 5 spots?



THE OTHER SPOTS

Ian Kennedy: This is tough to call. The thing is, Kennedy's ready. He's probably even more ready than Joba in terms of needing less development (Joba's changeup could use some work). Plus he threw more innings than Joba this past season, so he's more capable than him (and probably even Hughes) to pitch a full season. He also doesn't have the stuff of either Hughes or Joba, and he's not a potential ace. Since Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes are all definite locks for the rotation, and Mussina is almost certainly there too, it depends on what the Yankees do with Joba. If Joba starts the year in the bullpen to keep his innings down, then it's a no brainer that Kennedy makes the team. If the Yankees change their mind and send Joba to AAA to start the season, Kennedy makes the team. But if Joba does begin the year as a starter, as the Yankees keep saying, then I honestly don't know. It just seems a waste to make Kennedy a reliever, but he really doesn't seem to have much to do in the minors. My guess is Kennedy makes the team in some way, but he may get shoved into the spot starter/long relief role until someone falters, which I don't think is a great idea.

Beyond Ian, the Yankees will carry at least one more hitter. This one depends on a lot of factors, though. The possibilities, going by the 40 man roster and the 26 non roster invitees:

Juan Miranda: He would make the team as the first baseman, if he made it at all. I doubt he does. I could definitely see Miranda getting a mid season callup if he does well, but I doubt he starts the year in the majors. However, Cashman hinted that he was in the mix for the first base job, so he should be brought up.

Jason Lane: He's another candidate for the first base job. I just don't see it happening, though. He hasn't played much first base, and I don't see him beating out Duncan or Betemit. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, Lane would probably make it in his spot, but otherwise, I doubt it.

Bernie Castro: A candidate for the utility job, if Betemit is the first baseman (or a major part of a platoon). Very unlikely, really only played second base in the past. But he was invited, so there you are.

Cody Ransom: Another non roster invitee and candidate for the utility job. He's got a better shot than Castro, but I still think it's unlikely.

Nick Green: One of the two major candidates for the utility job, I suspect. He's done this before, and it's probably between him and Alberto Gonzalez.

Alberto Gonzalez: As mentioned, it may be between him and Green for the utility job. Neither guy has shown much hitting wise, and both are good defensively. The question is, do you want to go for the younger guy with more theoretical potential (since we already know what we'll get from Green)? Or do you want Gonzalez to stay in AAA and see if he can get any better? The problem is he really isnt likely to get many at bats as a utility infielder for the Yankees, especially since there are three first baseman already (Duncan, Betemit, Giambi). All of his at bats would have to come from replacing Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano, three guys who rarely miss games and are too important to the offense to afford them missing many games. To me, it depends on how you view Gonzalez. If you think he can get better, leave him in AAA. If you think what he is now is what you're going to get, give him a shot at the majors.

So based on everything above, that gives us a theoretical opening day roster of:

1. Jorge Posada
2. Robinson Cano
3. Derek Jeter
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Johnny Damon
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Shelley Duncan
11. Jason Giambi
12. Jose Molina
13. Alberto Gonzalez/Nick Green
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Phil Hughes
17. Joba Chamberlain
18. Mike Mussina
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Kyle Farnsworth
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Ian Kennedy (in some role)

I'd say except for the possibility of Kennedy opening the season in AAA, and the fact that Spring Training may determine whether Gonzalez or Green breaks camp with the major league team, those 22 are very likely.

In my next post I'll look at the pitching possibilities for the final three bullpen spots.

Arbitration figures!

So the Yankees have four players who were eligible for arbitration. They already reached a deal with Wilson Betemit, leaving three left.

Brian Bruney wants $845,000, the Yankees are offering $640,000. I imagine they'll come to an agreement relatively soon. Overall Bruney really wasn't that good last year, and aside from small sample sizes, has yet to be anywhere. I think $640,000 is more than reasonable, but they're close enough that they should be able to find a middle ground.

Chien Ming Wang wants 4.6 million, the Yankees are offering 4 million. Again, they're pretty close together here, I imagine they'll come to a deal.

The big question is Robinson Cano. Cano wants 4.55 million...the Yankees are offering only 3.2 million. That's a huge gap, and really kind of surprises me. I expected the Yankees to make similar offers to Wang and Cano, but that's quite a bit off. In 2006 Cano was contending for a batting title at the end of the season, and this past year, he was one of the best hitters on the team after the all star break, putting up very good numbers while playing a strong second base. I'd like to say they come to a deal without going to a hearing, but they're off by an awful lot. I don't know that 4.55 million is a great number, but I imagine it's more likely to be chosen over 3.2 million, which just seems low.

Of course, the other question is "Hey, why not sign these guys to long term deals?" I like Cashman a lot, but the idea of never giving extensions or not signing the younger guys to longer deals is one I disagree with. Look, I understand the idea behind not doing it, and I don't want extensions to become common, nor do I want every young guy signed to long contracts when we really don't know what we'll get from them. But Cano and Wang have been very good, consistently, for 2 and a half years now. Cano in particular just isn't going to be replaced anytime soon...how can you? A longer deal not only buys out a couple of his free agent years at a cheaper price while also making him happy (presumably, I suppose it's possible he doesn't WANT a longer deal), but it avoids the need to go to arbitration every off season, which can save money in and of itself. Maybe the Yankees want to give it another season, I don't know, but these types of things can hurt the team. Same with the extensions...remember how Posada and Mariano wanted extensions at the beginning of 2007? Short of a serious career ending injury (which can happen anytime anyway) everyone knew the Yanks would be trying to resign both guys. If they went for an extension, they probably could have gotten Mariano to come back for quite a bit less money per year, and they probably could have given Posada a 3 year extension instead of signing him to a 4 year contract. Maybe this ends up hurting the Yankees too, maybe not, but in my mind, sometimes it's okay to consider long term deals or extensions.