Tuesday, December 16, 2008

The moves so far...

May as well update this thing from time to time.

My thoughts on the moves so far:

1. Sabathia: Great! Couldn't be happier about it. Are there some potential concerns, sure, he did have a ridiculous amount of innings the past two years. On the other hand CC has yet to show he can't handle it. I don't like the "poor postseason numbers" argument. It's a small sample size. 2007 could have been a case of "He's thrown way more innings than ever before and it's catching up". In 2008 he threw even more, and he was working on 3 days rest for something like 4 starts in a row. If it was pressure getting to him, why was he pitching well for the Brewers down the stretch in a tight pennant race? I think CC will be fine.

2. AJ Burnett: I've gone back and forth on Burnett since the season ended, but I'm currently in the pro Burnett corner. I wish it could have been for 4 years rather than 5, but otherwise I think the potential upside here trumps anything else. Does he miss starts most years? Yes, although I tend to think this has been overblown. He's still got excellent stuff. Also, I've seen people point out that, okay, maybe he misses a few starts during the season, but the possibility of his stuff (and his apparent ability to pitch well in big games, albeit never in the postseason...we're pretty much talking about his strong performances against the Yankees and Boston I think) in the playoffs could make up for that. The deal could work out great, it could be terrible, but I think given the choices, this was probably the best move.

3. Nick Swisher: I like this move, quite a bit actually. I think last year was more flukeish than anything. Swisher had some bad luck, for starters. He also wasn't comfortable leading off or playing centerfield. He also has stated that he felt he wasn't adjusted to playing for a new team, and claims he learned a lot last year.

From a pure statistical perspective, I expect Swisher to improve which means we'll get a solid OBP and solid power at first base with some solid defense as well. But one thing I like that I normally wouldn't care about is that Swisher seems really enthusiastic to be here. Maybe it's just his natural personality, but reading posts he has made on his website or hearing him in an interview, he doesn't sound like someone who is *cue robot voice* 'glad he is a Yankee and looking forward to the opportunity to win'. He sounds genuinely excited about being a Yankee. I'm looking forward to seeing Swisher in action.

4. Damaso Marte: Resigned him for 3 years. I'm alright with it, although this is another move I've flipped on. I did want Marte back this season so I don't think I would have just offered arbitration and let him go elsewhere, but I thought picking up his option for one year (albeit at a slightly higher salary for 2009) and taking the picks at the end of the season would have been a better option. I still think that might be the case, but I have no problem with Marte returning. Marte got lit up by Texas early in August, and then struggled a bit with the Angels and Twins later that month, which soured a lot of people on him, but he was very good from that point on. While the kids in the bullpen showed a lot last season, having one veteran that might actually be able to get the job done in a setup role is nice.

I think that's essentially it for moves (unless I'm forgetting one).

As far as other rumored moves:

I'd definitely trade Melky for Cameron. Melky is what he is at this point, and I think last years Melky is probably more like the real Melky. I also like Gardner, but I'm not sold on whether he'll be able to man CF full time. I like him better as the 4th outfielder. Cameron's problem is he costs 10 million for the one season, but I think it's a move that the Yankees should consider making. If Gardner/Melky are ineffective in center again, the team is one injury to a Posada/Matsui/Damon/A-Rod/etc. away from being crippled. Cameron gives you some insurance.

Teixeira: I just don't see this happening. Do I like Teixeira, yes. Signing him gives you a great hitter at first base for a long time (although he could of course decline). Then you can move Swisher to right field and either trade Nady or make him your fourth outfielder. The issue that a lot of people are failing to understand when arguing that the Yankees shouldn't trade for Cameron because they can use that 10 million toward Teixeira is that there's a lot more to it than just this year. If Teixeira approached the Yankees right now and said "Okay, I'll take a one year deal for 23 million, let's do that!" I have no doubt the Yankees would have him signed tomorrow. But tying up 70-75 million in 3 players for 7 years is not a good idea no matter how good they are. There's no flexibility there.

Manny: I really don't know. The Yankees could use another hitter, but is Manny really the answer? He's a great hitter, no question. But you have to trade someone to make room. If it's Nady, fine, but who plays right, Damon or Manny? Not sure either is ideal, that's a lot of ground for Manny to cover and that's a lot of guys going first to third on Damon's arm. So you can move Damon, your leadoff hitter, or you can move Matsui, who probably can't play the field full time and so would have to be traded to an AL team with an opening at DH that believes they can contend this year and has 13 million to spend. Oh, and Matsui has to agree to it. Doesn't seem too likely to me. Plus Manny's a headcase. And how well will he and Girardi really get along? Seems like a big personality clash waiting to happen there.

5th rotation spot: Ideally, just give it to Pettitte and call it a day. There seems to be concerns over Sheets medical records (not surprisingly) and while I was interested in him before Burnett signed, I'm less thrilled with the idea of two guys with injury question marks like that. I also don't like the idea of Lowe in that spot, I'd rather not give him a 4 year contract and it would essentially tie up all rotation spots for the next 4 years leaving no room for someone like Hughes.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Offseason!

Yay offseason!

Okay, not so much. Obviously the Yankees did not get it done this year, but we knew inevitably this would happen sooner or later. There were a lot of factors that fed into this...the Rays taking off this year rather than next year or in 2010 was one thing, the Yanks would have theoretically won the Wild Card if the Rays had won 88 games or less (which still would have been very impressive). Losing Wang for the year and Joba as a starter for the last two months were both huge, huge losses. Losing Posada's bat hurt as well, although Molina did a great job defensively and perhaps helped the pitching staff. Plus it didn't help that overall Cano pretty much sucked and Melky got really bad really fast. Other teams got hurt too, no excuses, but Wang and Posada missed most of the season rather than just a month or two, and their replacements were getting hurt as well. It makes things difficult. There were problems with the team anyway, but they shouldn't have been as inconsistent as they ended up being, and I suspect that if Wang, Posada, and Joba had stayed healthy, the Yankees might still be playing.

Or hey, maybe not. That's baseball.

So what do we have for next year?

I'd say the following players are sure things short of a trade (and I'm not gonna assume one at the moment):

1. Derek Jeter (Shortstop)
2. Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)
3. Johnny Damon (Left Field)
4. Hideki Matsui (DH)
5. Robinson Cano (Second Base)
6. Jorge Posada (Catcher)
7. Jose Molina (Backup Catcher)
8. Xavier Nady (Right Field probably)
9. Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder...I don't think he's a free agent yet)
10. Chien Ming Wang (Starter)
11. Joba Chamberlain (Starter)
12. Mariano Rivera (Closer)

And that's pretty much it. Those are the guys who, short of a trade, are guaranteed spots. I put Joba as a starter based on Cashman saying the plan now is for him to start all season, obviously that could change. I'm also not positive on Betemit's status, but I think he's signed through 2009. There's also some question on Posada, but for now I'm assuming he's a catcher.

That leaves a lot of work. Center field, first base, backup outfielder, additional bench player, three more starters, and probably 6 more guys in the bullpen. Obviously some will be filled with guys on the team. Phil Coke certainly looks likely to fill a bullpen spot, if he doesn't get turned into a starter. Brian Bruney also looked great and is a pretty good assumption for a bullpen spot. So let's add those two.

13. Phil Coke (Reliever)
14. Brian Bruney (Reliever)

Here's where we start venturing away from "Here are the sure things" into "What would you do?".

I think Brett Gardner is a good bet for some spot on this team. He's either going to be the starting centerfielder or the backup outfielder I suspect, depending on whether the Yankees sign a free agent centerfielder. Personally, I'd pass and give Gardner a shot. Risky, yes, because if he hits like he did when he first got called up, that's a huge hole that will do a lot of damage to the lineup. But if he can hit even halfway decent, his speed and strong defense will allow him to fill the centerfield and 9th in the order spots at least until Austin Jackson is ready. For me, I'm going to fill him into my starting centerfielder spot.

15. Brett Gardner (Centerfield)

The fourth outfielder should probably be either Melky or Christian. I've soured on Melky at this point, and I think it might be better to go with Christian, who can be used as a pinch runner as well.

16. Justin Christian (Backup Outfielder)

Let's see, back to that bullpen. Four more spots to fill, and no easy choices. Sanchez and Melancon both interest me, but they might not be ready. There's also Marte to consider, who has an option that may get picked up. He struggled in August but looked good in September. If Sanchez or Melancon seem ready, I'd let him walk and take the draft pick...if they're not, the Yanks might need him. Veras struggled toward the end of the year, but he was overall solid, and while he may not be a closer or even setup man, I think he can be a useful reliever. Edwar is more difficult, because he got REALLY terrible in August and September. Robertson didn't look fantastic but he did have a good strikeout rate; I'd give him another shot. A long man might be nice as well, but it could depend on who makes the team as a starter. I'll give it to Dan Giese for now because he did look solid enough and I think the potential starting rotation guys that don't make the team may be better served starting in AAA until they're needed.

17. Jose Veras (Reliever)
18. David Robertson (Reliever)
19. Damaso Marte (Reliever)
20. Dan Giese (Long Reliever)

That leaves us with three starters, a first baseman, and then the last bench guy. Start with an easy one, how about first base? Well, he may not want to come, but I throw money at Mark Teixeira. He's young enough, he's very good defensively, he's a good hitter as well.

21. Mark Teixeira (First Base)

How about those three starters? Again, one is an easy choice if he's willing to come here, and that's CC Sabathia. He gives the Yanks the ace they need, and costs only draft picks. I'm a bit concerned about overuse (over 250 innings pre playoffs? Yikes), but I'd still throw the money at him. That gives you CC as your number 1, Wang as your number 2. I'm making Joba the number 5 for these purposes due to his likely innings restrictions...he'll probably need to serve as the 5th starter to keep the innings down. So the Yanks still need a 3rd and 4th. First off, I'd like Mussina to return. I'm not so sure he will, however. If he agrees to then I absolutely resign him and plug him into the rotation. If he doesn't I suppose Andy Pettitte can replace him, but I'm somewhat concerned about Pettitte right now. For the other spot, you can use one of the kids (Aceves, Hughes), but you can argue relying on the kids without a real backup plan is what hurt the Yankees this year. Also Hughes might be best served by spending a little time in AAA. I'd like to sign an innings eater...perhaps Lowe or Garland. There's also a possibility that both Pettitte and Moose return, but I'd personally rather avoid Andy unless Mussina retires. I wouldn't want to sign both Lowe and Garland though, there's not much of a need for the Yankees to sign two middle rotation guys to "long term" contracts (by that I mean longer than the one or maybe two years Pettitte would probably want). Also, AJ Burnett has the most upside of any of these guys except CC, but may also cost more money/more years than is ideal, and the injury risk is there.

22. CC Sabathia (Starter)
23. Mike Mussina (Starter)
24. Derek Lowe (Starter)

And that last bench spot can go to anyone, it doesn't really matter at this point. Preferably a slugger of some kind, but I'm not sure who offhand.

This would give the Yanks a 2009 team of:

1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
4. Mark Teixeira (1B)
5. Xavier Nady (RF)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Jorge Posada (C)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Brett Gardner (LF)

Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien Ming Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Derek Lowe
5. Joba Chamberlain

Bullpen:

1. Mariano Rivera
2. Damaso Marte
3. Brian Bruney
4. Phil Coke
5. Jose Veras
6. David Robertson
7. Dan Giese

Bench:

1. Wilson Betemit
2. Justin Christian
3. Jose Molina
4. ?

Not too bad. The lineup isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the past, but it's potentially very solid and would help the improved starting rotation and (hopefully) improved bullpen.

Monday, March 31, 2008

Game #1 coming soon

Game #1 is in roughly 11 hours now. The final roster is set, and as it turns out, Rasner didn't make it after all, despite Girardi saying he wanted a long man. Instead both Ohlendorf and Bruney made it, while Albaladejo also made the team (although he'll likely be replaced as soon as Pettitte is ready). Patterson did not and was apparently never in the running, although he certainly thought he was. Girardi did imply that there would be a long man at some point, likely when the bullpen appears to be getting worn out, so it's possible we'll still see Rasner soon.

I found my overall predictions, so here they are based on not much more than gut instincts (I'm a stat guy in many ways, but I just don't have any real interest in forming some projection system to mathematically determine likely numbers...more power to those that do though, I enjoy seeing them). Obviously, these numbers aren't going to pan out, because guys will get hurt, guys will be ineffective, guys will get called up. But I don't predict for injuries or anything, so these are theoretical predictions if the 25 man roster as it stands right now (plus Pettitte and minus Albaladejo) plays the entire season intact. It won't, but I'm not predicting for that.

I'm also not entirely happy with some of them because I originally did it with the idea that Duncan and Betemit would split time at first. I altered my original predictions a bit to account for more playing time for Giambi, a lot less for Betemit, and probably a decent amount less for Duncan (especially since I also had to add Ensberg) but I didn't want to rework the whole thing, so they're not perfect. I also stuck Phil at 160 IP, no idea what his limit is.

Alex Rodriguez: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs
Bobby Abreu: .291/.398/.470, 19 Home Runs, 103 RBIs, 23 SBs
Hideki Matsui: .288/.370/.482, 23 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 3 SBs
Jorge Posada: .280/.384/.483, 21 Home Runs, 86 RBIs, 1 SB
Robinson Cano: .317/.362/.491, 18 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 5 SBs
Derek Jeter: .312/.380/.454, 14 Home Runs, 82 RBIs, 19 SBs
Jason Giambi: .252/.392/.502, 32 Home Runs, 91 RBIs, 0 SBs
Johnny Damon: .275/.358/.435, 14 Home Runs, 64 RBIs, 21 SBs
Melky Cabrera: .284/.341/.414, 11 Home Runs, 65 RBIs, 11 SBs
Shelley Duncan: .243/.320/.488, 11 Home Runs, 40 RBIs, 1 SB
Wilson Betemit: .249/.338/.451, 8 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 2 SBs
Jose Molina: .242/.281/.341, 2 Home Runs, 21 RBIs, 0 SBs
Morgan Ensberg: .250/.354/.445, 7 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 1 SB

Chien Ming Wang: 19-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 118 Ks, 211 IP
Andy Pettitte: 17-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 137 Ks, 210 IP
Phil Hughes: 12-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 142 Ks, 160 IP
Ian Kennedy: 12-8, 4.12 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 139 Ks, 165 IP
Mike Mussina: 11-9, 4.68 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 85 Ks, 130 IP
Joba Chamberlain: 9-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 145 Ks, 142 IP
Mariano Rivera: 3-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 70 Ks, 72 IP, 34 Saves
Kyle Farnsworth: 2-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 60 Ks, 61 IP
LaTroy Hawkins: 3-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 32 Ks, 58 IP
Ross Ohlendorf: 4-4, 4.15 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 55 Ks, 65 IP
Brian Bruney: 2-5, 4.40 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 70 Ks, 66 IP
Billy Traber: 1-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 22 Ks, 35 IP

Traber's numbers are also partly based on the idea that he'd be primarily a guy who faces lefties. If he gets into facing righties often I'd expect more innings but a higher ERA and WHIP.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Opening Day Nearing...

So as you can see I stopped doing the predictions, because frankly I've been too busy. I may still have them written down somewhere and if I do, I'll post them without any real explanation just for the heck of it.

The season starts Monday for the Yankees, and the roster is close to being finalized. I surprisingly (to me) wasn't that far off, although it isn't set yet. I had Nick Green rather than Morgan Ensberg, but the original post went up before Ensberg was even a possibility. And it looks like Rasner will make the roster, while Patterson has really opened some eyes and could get that last spot.

Looks to me like we have 24 spots essentuiually filled, and a three man race for the final spot.

1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Robinson Cano
4. Jorge Posada
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Jason Giambi
10. Wilson Betemit
11. Jose Molina
12. Shelley Duncan
13. Morgan Ensberg
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Mike Mussina
16. Andy Pettitte
17. Ian Kennedy
18. Phil Hughes
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Joba Chamberlain
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Kyle Farnsworth
23. Billy Traber
24. Darrell Rasner
25. ?

Traber's the only non Igawa lefty left as far as I remember, with Henn on the DL and Phillips sent down. He's pretty much made the team unless Girardi changes his mind about carrying a lefty. As for the long man spot that Girardi has said he wants, Igawa hasn't pitched well at all, and Karstens appears to have been injured today, which leaves Rasner as the only real option (and the person I would have picked anyway).

That leaves one spot. Seems like it's a three man race at this point, between Ross Ohlendorf, Brian Bruney, and Scott Patterson. Ohlendorf seems least likely to me right now (with 2 more games remaining for that to change). He's pitched very well but has allowed the most hits out of the three (none have walked a lot of guys) and in theory could gain some benefit from being in AAA for a little bit. Patterson has pitched far and away better than any of the three, and better than anyone in camp too. It's not even close. But he's also never pitched above AA, so they may want to see what he can do in AAA first. Bruney has pitched very well and probably has the least to gain from being sent to the minors; at this point he'd just be sitting around waiting for a callup.

All three have options remaining as is my understanding, so that wouldn't factor in. I think it's between Bruney and Patterson right now, and it will depend solely on whether Patterson was ever really "in the race" or whether it was always intended he'd be sent down unless every other reliever was god awful. Ohlendorf still has a shot though.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

The Moose

According to a few different people, Mark Feinsand and Peter Abraham amond others) Mike Mussina had Phil Hughes' locker moved from between Pettitte and Pavano to the spot next to his. Ian Kennedy is already on the other side of Mussina.

I've always been a fan of Mussina. He gets a lot of criticism, some deserved, some not, but I'll always remember some of his biggest games for the Yankees. Remember the Jeter Flip? Moose was the one who had the Yankees in a position to win by pitching a shutout. Remember Aaron Boone hitting that home run off Wakefield? Of course you do, but it's unfortunate that less people remember the fact that if not for Mike Mussina brilliantly escaping an inherited first and third, nobody out jam followed by two more scoreless innings, the Yankees are headed home. Seriously, if Mike Mussina allows a sacrifice fly and then a double play, everyone would have said he did a good job, and yet the Yankees would have lost. But he got out of it without allowing a run. Everytime someone claims he can't pitch in big spots (and sometimes he has come up short, like...you know...most pitchers), there's an example of him being out of his element (relieving), pitching in one of the biggest games of his life in one of the toughest situations you'll ever see.

Anyway, I digress. Mussina had a good 2006, but otherwise has struggled for years now. Last year he was overall pretty terrible. But the bottom line is the Yankees need someone to fill a rotation spot. With Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba all on innings counts, Wang and Pettitte alone aren't going to cut it. Maybe you can find someone at this point that can put up slightly better numbers than Mussina (but I stress maybe, pickings are slim), but it may not be so easy to find that veteran presence. Wang's a kid too, in baseball years. Pettitte's a veteran presence, but he has his own problems to deal with. That leaves Mike Mussina, and you know what, Ian and Phil can do a heck of a lot worse. I think it's great to see Mussina step up, ready and willing to teach the kids whatever he can, and not just because someone tells him he should. One of these kids could be knocking him out of the rotation this year, but he's still willing to teach them. I think thats great. So thumbs up to Mike Mussina, and if Hughes and Kennedy can have anywhere close to the career and consistency Mussina has had prior to 2004, Yankee fans will be very, very happy with the results.

Dynasty? Really?



So apparently a book about the new Red Sox dynasty is coming out.

Look, the Red Sox are an excellent team right now. And yes, they're the only team so far this decade to win it all more than once. But dynasty? Oh come on. The 2004 team and the 2007 team aren't even that similar. You have a few of the same core players (Ortiz, Manny, Varitek, Schilling) and a couple guys who are steady contributors but not the big time players (Wakefield, Timlin) but beyond that, not a heck of a lot. No Papelbon, no Pedroia in 2004. Youkilis wasn't a full time player. No Beckett, no Matsuzaka, no Lester, no Lowell, no Lugo, no Crisp, no Drew, no Okajima, the list goes on. Hell, Boston got swept in the first round in 2005, and then didn't even come in second in their division in 2006. Am I supposed to believe the amazing ability of the 2004 team carried over all the way to 2007 to form this new dynasty?

Could this team become a dynasty? Sure. I'm not trying to bash the Red Sox here, they have a very good team. But the 2004 team has little to do with the 2007 team, and even if they had almost the same players, it takes a lot more than two wins in four years to be a dynasty. The Blue Jays did better than that in the early 90s, winning back to back...are they a dynasty? Of course not.

Anyway, hey, spring training is here!

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez

2007 Stats: .314/.422/.645, 54 Home Runs, 156 RBIs, 24 Stolen Bases

Last year, Alex had one of the better seasons you'll ever see. He easily won the MVP...now, can he repeat it?

Probably not, but that's not exactly a knock on him. When someone has a year like that, it's not fair to expect them to put up those numbers again. That doesn't mean he can't have another MVP caliber season however, and I fully expect him to. I think he may have turned a bit of a corner last year in that he seemed to have stopped letting the crowd and media reactions dictate how he plays. In 2006 it was clear that he was effected by the booing, and while he didn't really have to deal with it much this past season (getting off to such a strong start in April with two walkoffs will do that for you), he had plenty of other things going on that the media wouldn't leave him alone about. It didn't appear to effect him at all, and if he can keep that going, there's no reason to think he can't continue to put up MVP caliber seasons for a bit longer.

Prediction: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs

Yeah, it's down a little, but I'd sign for those numbers right now, and really, who wouldn't?

Monday, February 11, 2008

Predictions

Leading up to the start of the season, I'm going to start taking a look at the players who will be on the team (barring injury, of course). A little early, sure, but pitchers and catchers are reporting soon, and I don't intend to do more than one a day (and I know I won't have one every single day), so now's a good time to start. I'll start out with guys we know (again, barring injury) will be on the team, and hopefully by the time I get to the end, some of the other spots will be a little clearer.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Morgan Ensberg

Add Ensberg to the list of players who could potentially make the 25 man. Will he? I'm not sure. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, then it's probably a no brainer. If he is, I think Ensberg still has a chance as he's probably the best hitter out of anyone else who could fill the final bench spot (if the Yankees decide to carry 12 pitchers), but it may not make much sense. He'd essentially fill the same role as Shelley Duncan, except he can play third base instead of the corner outfield spots.

I can see a scenario where you have both Duncan and Ensberg starting against a tough lefty (with one at first base and the other DHing, with both Giambi and Damon sitting), but I don't think that's too likely. Still, Ensberg is as much a possibility as any of the others based on his bat and potential.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Santana

The long national nightmare is almost over. After months of speculation, news stories, speculation, trade offers, speculation, and oh, did I mention speculation, Johan Santana has been freed from his confines in Minnesota and will be headed to New York. But not, as hoped/feared (depending on which side you take), as a member of the Yankees.

Seems to me that the Twins GM did overplay his hand. The Yankees apparently were out of it entirely at this point, and there are differing reports on whether Boston was really offering much at this point. I was never crazy about the Red Sox offer, but it was probably more of a sure thing than what the Twins had to settle for. And maybe it's just me, but I thought Hughes was the best player offered in any deal, and perhaps the Twins made an error in judgement by waiting too long, as that window closed prety quickly.

But right now I'm glad it went down the way it did. Boston doesn't get Santana and the Yankees get to keep Hughes (not to mention Melky, Kennedy, and any other prospects that might have been involved). Would Santana have been nice, sure, but on the other hand he also would have cost a lot of money and expected a long contract. If you're going to give it to any pitcher, it's got to be Santana, but still. I'm a big fan of Phil's, and I'm glad I'll get to see him pitch as a Yankee.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

The Relievers

First, rumors are that Cano and the Yankees are close on a deal for a 4 year, 30 million dollar contract, with the possibility of one or two option years. Without the option years it's somewhat pointless, just a means to avoid going to arbitration. With them, it could be a potentially very valuable deal. Smart move, in my opinion.

Last time I looked at the spots in the 25 man roster that were likely set in stone, as well as who might fill the final offensive spots. Now I'll take a look at which pitchers are going to be attending Spring Training (as of now) and who might find themselves on the major league roster to start the season. For the purposes of this, I didn't bother with Carl Pavano, Humberto Sanchez, or Andrew Brackman, all on the 40 man roster. Brackman won't even be ready for the minors until 2009 in all likelihood (certainly not to start the season), and Pavano probably won't be back with the Yankees at all, and again, certainly not before the end of the season. Sanchez is an interesting case as he could have an impact with the Yankees this season, but he won't be ready to start the season. I'll also seperate the guys into righties and lefties, simply because one of the lefties may end up making the team even though the righties are more plentiful and probably could be better.

RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS

Ross Ohlendorf: Ohlendorf received a September callup in 2007 and pitched very well (albeit in 6 innings). He struggled in his one inning in the playoffs, but the fact that he even made the roster should tell you something. Ohlendorf seems like a decent bet to make the team to start the season, although it's not out of the question that he could go back to the minors for a little while.

Edwar Ramirez: I really don't know what to make of Edwar. His changeup is just disgustingly good and his minor league numbers are fantastic. If he had a second good pitch I'd write the poor major league numbers off as extenuating circumstances and give him a shot right out of Spring Training. But realistically, Edwar's fastball just isn't that great. If hitters are able to sit on it, he's going to have a problem in the majors, no matter how great his changeup is. He's got as good a shot as anyone to make the team out of Spring Training, but he's another guy who I expect to be on a short leash. I'd love to see him succeed, especially with that great changeup, but he may need something more.

Brian Bruney: Bruney might be out of options, I'm actually not sure. When he can keep his control even somewhat in line, he does have very good stuff, and Yankee fans saw that from time to time last season. Unfortunately, he doesn't always manage that very well, and Yankee fans saw that as well. He's also got a good chance to make the team if he has a strong spring, but he, like almost everyone on this list, is going to be on a very short leash.

Mark Melancon: Added for the sake of completeness. He won't make the team out of Spring Training, that's pretty much a certainty. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him on the Yankees later this season, if he has a strong showing in the minors.

Chris Britton: Poor Chris couldn't buy a callup last season it seemed. And when he did make it, he pitched fairly well for the most part but still wasn't trusted. Perhaps Girardi will be different. Britton actually has some success in the AL East (he had a good season in Baltimore), so he really should get a shot at least.

Jeff Marquez: Nope, he's likely to be back in the minors as a starter, although he could see time during the season in case of injuries.

Jose Veras: Here's another possibility after a decent September (he was better than his final numbers show, almost all of his earned runs came in a single game). He too made the playoff roster, so like Ohlendorf, that does show the Yankees are high enough on him that he likely has a shot at making the 25 man out of Spring Training.

Jonathan Albaladejo: For those who don't recall, he's the guy who came over from the Nationals in the Tyler Clippard trade. He did decent but not great in AA last season, but was excellent in AAA and had a strong September with the Nats. He's certainly a possibility to make it out of Spring Training, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him sent to AAA so the Yankees can see firsthand what they got before sending him to the majors (not unlike Chris Britton).

Jeff Karstens: If Kennedy and Joba are both on the roster, then forget it. If not, then Karstens is a possibility for a long relief role. I'm not a huge fan though, to be honest. He struggled greatly last year when not injured, and I don't think he's a great option out of the bullpen.

Darrell Rasner: Another guy Yankee fans have seen for the past couple of years, Rasner was actually taken off the 40 man, which may not be a good sign for how the organization views him. However, I like Rasner. Realistically the Yankee organization is not the place for him, since there are way too many starting options above him. However, if Kennedy (or Joba I suppose) starts the season in the minors, I think Rasner would be an excellent option for a long relief role.

Daniel McCutchen: Nope. He could end up as a reliever, but at the moment he's a starter. He'll head back to the minors for now, but it's not out of the question we could see him this year. I'd expect him in 2009 though.

Alan Horne: Here's an interesting one. Horne had an excellent season in the minors last year as a starter, and he could continue down that path. However, there are a few guys ahead of him, and Horne does have stuff that would probably translate well to the bullpen. I doubt he makes it out of Spring Training, I expect the Yankees to have him continue to pitch as a starter in the minors for the time being, but he's a guy we could see sometime during the season, as a reliever or starter depending on how he is needed.

Steven Jackson: I doubt he has any real shot at making the team as a reliever short of something very bizarre happening. Eventually I suppose it's a possibility, but he still has things to work on in the minors.

Steven White: Here's someone I think we will see sometime this season, and perhaps even right out of Spring Training if he does very well. White's been with the organization for a bit now and just finished a season at AAA. The Yankees are going to need to make a decision about him soon. He's probably going to be blocked as a starter unless a few injuries occur, so the Yanks may as well try him out in the bullpen.

Scott Patterson: Patterson has done very well in the minors so far, but he's not thought as highly of as many others. He should have a shot though if he does well in Spring Training, and unless he starts struggling in the minors, he's a good bet to at least be given a chance to do something in the majors at some point this season.

Daniel Giese: The nice thing about Giese is that he doesn't walk a lot of people (remember how frustrated we as Yankee fans would get when we had Farnsworth, Proctor, and Bruney all walking the ballpark?). He will give up his share of hits, but he's got a chance at making the bullpen. If not, we could still see him at some point this year.

Scott Strickland: Strickland is interesting in that he actually has some major league experience (although all in the NL), where he did pretty well. But he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2005, and there only for 4 innings. I expect him to head to AAA, but he could be an option at some point.

LEFT HANDED PITCHERS


Kei Igawa: At some point the Yankees are likely to do something with Igawa, they're paying him enough. He may initially be viewed as a starting option in cae of injury to multiple pitchers, but at some point they should try to either trade him or see if he can work in the bullpen at all. I'd be shocked if he made the team out of spring training, but we'll probably end up seeing him at some point this season, in some role.

Heath Phillips: I suppose he's a possibility, but it doesn't seem too likely.

Chase Wright: Here's someone we saw as a starter last season. I expect Chase to be converted to the bullpen, and it might be pretty soon, but I wouldn't expect him to make the team out of spring training.

Sean Henn: Henn occasionally showed some flashes of brilliance, but overall has struggled everytime he pitched in the majors. He's quickly running out of chances, and he may not even get one this time. However, he's probably a better bet to make the team (should they decide they need a left handed reliever) than Wright, Phillips, or Igawa.

Billy Traber: Traber may not be a great bet and normally would be ignored, however, if you look at his career splits against lefties, they're quite good. He may not be ideal, especially since the splits against righties are, well, not at all good. But if it's between him or Henn, he has a good chance at making the team.

That's everyone. So who do the Yankees go with? I honestly don't know. I think Ohlendorf is going to make the team, so that's one of the three remaining spots. I'm also going to guess Bruney makes it, because I believe he's out of options. If it was me, I'd probably cut ties with him or at least try to send him down to the minors, but we'll see. That leaves one spot. I'd rather see a guy like Britton, Albaladejo, or Veras get a shot (or perhaps Edwar), but if the Yankees choose to go with a lefty, I'll guess that Traber makes it.

So my best guess for a final roster:

1. Jorge Posada
2. Robinson Cano
3. Derek Jeter
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Johnny Damon
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Shelley Duncan
11. Jason Giambi
12. Jose Molina
13. Nick Green
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Phil Hughes
17. Joba Chamberlain
18. Mike Mussina
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Kyle Farnsworth
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Ian Kennedy
23. Ross Ohlendorf
24. Brian Bruney
25. Billy Traber

Nick Green could be replaced with Alberto Gonzalez, Kennedy could be replaced by Rasner or Karstens, and those last three could be switched out with any number of guys, but I think that's a good possibility for the opening day roster, if there are no more trades and people stay healthy.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Opening Day Roster?

We're not there yet, but we're getting closer, so let's take a look at who will be on the team, who is likely to be on the team, and who might fill those remaining spots on the 25 man roster come the start of the 2008 season. This, of course, is assuming no more trades and everyone stays healthy.



LOCKS

Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Jose Molina, Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Wilson Betemit

The first 17 guys are fairly obvious and don't really need any explanation. The only one I want to add anything to is Betemit. Cashman seemed to imply there was going to be a race for the 1st base spot, which Betemit will likely be a part of...however, it's a certainty that even if someone else ends up as the full time first baseman (as opposed to the platoon that currently seems likely), Betemit will be on the team in some role.

NEAR LOCKS
These guys are almost certainly going to be on the team, but there's just enough of a question mark that I didn't want to include them above.

Shelley Duncan: Assuming health, Shelley's almost certain to make the team. Currently, it seems that he'll end up as part of a first base platoon with Wilson Betemit...his ability to also play the outfield in an emergency is helpful as well. However, if someone else (Juan Miranda for example) manages to win the first base job, Duncan isn't an absolute lock (like Betemit is) to be on the 25 man in some way. It's extremely likely Duncan breaks camp with the team, but you never know.

Joba Chamberlain: Again, almost certain that Joba enters the 2008 season on the major league team in some capacity, either as a reliever or a starter. However, it's not absolutely out of the question that, in an attempt to have him ease back into the starters role, to work on the changeup, and to keep his innings down, that the Yankees could send him down to AAA for a month to start the season. At the end of 2007 I thought this was the best option, but the Yankees seem to imply that he will definitely be on the team in some capacity right from day one. However, just in case, I include him here.

Mike Mussina: I include him here only because of that slight possibility he looks so god awful in spring training, while Joba and Kennedy look so dominant, that the Yankees just cut their losses. Extremely, extremely unlikely, but there it is.

That gives us 20 guys. 12 hitters, 8 pitchers (including 5 starters). So how about those other 5 spots?



THE OTHER SPOTS

Ian Kennedy: This is tough to call. The thing is, Kennedy's ready. He's probably even more ready than Joba in terms of needing less development (Joba's changeup could use some work). Plus he threw more innings than Joba this past season, so he's more capable than him (and probably even Hughes) to pitch a full season. He also doesn't have the stuff of either Hughes or Joba, and he's not a potential ace. Since Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes are all definite locks for the rotation, and Mussina is almost certainly there too, it depends on what the Yankees do with Joba. If Joba starts the year in the bullpen to keep his innings down, then it's a no brainer that Kennedy makes the team. If the Yankees change their mind and send Joba to AAA to start the season, Kennedy makes the team. But if Joba does begin the year as a starter, as the Yankees keep saying, then I honestly don't know. It just seems a waste to make Kennedy a reliever, but he really doesn't seem to have much to do in the minors. My guess is Kennedy makes the team in some way, but he may get shoved into the spot starter/long relief role until someone falters, which I don't think is a great idea.

Beyond Ian, the Yankees will carry at least one more hitter. This one depends on a lot of factors, though. The possibilities, going by the 40 man roster and the 26 non roster invitees:

Juan Miranda: He would make the team as the first baseman, if he made it at all. I doubt he does. I could definitely see Miranda getting a mid season callup if he does well, but I doubt he starts the year in the majors. However, Cashman hinted that he was in the mix for the first base job, so he should be brought up.

Jason Lane: He's another candidate for the first base job. I just don't see it happening, though. He hasn't played much first base, and I don't see him beating out Duncan or Betemit. If Duncan isn't ready to start the season, Lane would probably make it in his spot, but otherwise, I doubt it.

Bernie Castro: A candidate for the utility job, if Betemit is the first baseman (or a major part of a platoon). Very unlikely, really only played second base in the past. But he was invited, so there you are.

Cody Ransom: Another non roster invitee and candidate for the utility job. He's got a better shot than Castro, but I still think it's unlikely.

Nick Green: One of the two major candidates for the utility job, I suspect. He's done this before, and it's probably between him and Alberto Gonzalez.

Alberto Gonzalez: As mentioned, it may be between him and Green for the utility job. Neither guy has shown much hitting wise, and both are good defensively. The question is, do you want to go for the younger guy with more theoretical potential (since we already know what we'll get from Green)? Or do you want Gonzalez to stay in AAA and see if he can get any better? The problem is he really isnt likely to get many at bats as a utility infielder for the Yankees, especially since there are three first baseman already (Duncan, Betemit, Giambi). All of his at bats would have to come from replacing Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano, three guys who rarely miss games and are too important to the offense to afford them missing many games. To me, it depends on how you view Gonzalez. If you think he can get better, leave him in AAA. If you think what he is now is what you're going to get, give him a shot at the majors.

So based on everything above, that gives us a theoretical opening day roster of:

1. Jorge Posada
2. Robinson Cano
3. Derek Jeter
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Johnny Damon
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Shelley Duncan
11. Jason Giambi
12. Jose Molina
13. Alberto Gonzalez/Nick Green
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Phil Hughes
17. Joba Chamberlain
18. Mike Mussina
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Kyle Farnsworth
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Ian Kennedy (in some role)

I'd say except for the possibility of Kennedy opening the season in AAA, and the fact that Spring Training may determine whether Gonzalez or Green breaks camp with the major league team, those 22 are very likely.

In my next post I'll look at the pitching possibilities for the final three bullpen spots.

Arbitration figures!

So the Yankees have four players who were eligible for arbitration. They already reached a deal with Wilson Betemit, leaving three left.

Brian Bruney wants $845,000, the Yankees are offering $640,000. I imagine they'll come to an agreement relatively soon. Overall Bruney really wasn't that good last year, and aside from small sample sizes, has yet to be anywhere. I think $640,000 is more than reasonable, but they're close enough that they should be able to find a middle ground.

Chien Ming Wang wants 4.6 million, the Yankees are offering 4 million. Again, they're pretty close together here, I imagine they'll come to a deal.

The big question is Robinson Cano. Cano wants 4.55 million...the Yankees are offering only 3.2 million. That's a huge gap, and really kind of surprises me. I expected the Yankees to make similar offers to Wang and Cano, but that's quite a bit off. In 2006 Cano was contending for a batting title at the end of the season, and this past year, he was one of the best hitters on the team after the all star break, putting up very good numbers while playing a strong second base. I'd like to say they come to a deal without going to a hearing, but they're off by an awful lot. I don't know that 4.55 million is a great number, but I imagine it's more likely to be chosen over 3.2 million, which just seems low.

Of course, the other question is "Hey, why not sign these guys to long term deals?" I like Cashman a lot, but the idea of never giving extensions or not signing the younger guys to longer deals is one I disagree with. Look, I understand the idea behind not doing it, and I don't want extensions to become common, nor do I want every young guy signed to long contracts when we really don't know what we'll get from them. But Cano and Wang have been very good, consistently, for 2 and a half years now. Cano in particular just isn't going to be replaced anytime soon...how can you? A longer deal not only buys out a couple of his free agent years at a cheaper price while also making him happy (presumably, I suppose it's possible he doesn't WANT a longer deal), but it avoids the need to go to arbitration every off season, which can save money in and of itself. Maybe the Yankees want to give it another season, I don't know, but these types of things can hurt the team. Same with the extensions...remember how Posada and Mariano wanted extensions at the beginning of 2007? Short of a serious career ending injury (which can happen anytime anyway) everyone knew the Yanks would be trying to resign both guys. If they went for an extension, they probably could have gotten Mariano to come back for quite a bit less money per year, and they probably could have given Posada a 3 year extension instead of signing him to a 4 year contract. Maybe this ends up hurting the Yankees too, maybe not, but in my mind, sometimes it's okay to consider long term deals or extensions.