Offseason!

Yay offseason!

Okay, not so much. Obviously the Yankees did not get it done this year, but we knew inevitably this would happen sooner or later. There were a lot of factors that fed into this...the Rays taking off this year rather than next year or in 2010 was one thing, the Yanks would have theoretically won the Wild Card if the Rays had won 88 games or less (which still would have been very impressive). Losing Wang for the year and Joba as a starter for the last two months were both huge, huge losses. Losing Posada's bat hurt as well, although Molina did a great job defensively and perhaps helped the pitching staff. Plus it didn't help that overall Cano pretty much sucked and Melky got really bad really fast. Other teams got hurt too, no excuses, but Wang and Posada missed most of the season rather than just a month or two, and their replacements were getting hurt as well. It makes things difficult. There were problems with the team anyway, but they shouldn't have been as inconsistent as they ended up being, and I suspect that if Wang, Posada, and Joba had stayed healthy, the Yankees might still be playing.

Or hey, maybe not. That's baseball.

So what do we have for next year?

I'd say the following players are sure things short of a trade (and I'm not gonna assume one at the moment):

1. Derek Jeter (Shortstop)
2. Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)
3. Johnny Damon (Left Field)
4. Hideki Matsui (DH)
5. Robinson Cano (Second Base)
6. Jorge Posada (Catcher)
7. Jose Molina (Backup Catcher)
8. Xavier Nady (Right Field probably)
9. Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder...I don't think he's a free agent yet)
10. Chien Ming Wang (Starter)
11. Joba Chamberlain (Starter)
12. Mariano Rivera (Closer)

And that's pretty much it. Those are the guys who, short of a trade, are guaranteed spots. I put Joba as a starter based on Cashman saying the plan now is for him to start all season, obviously that could change. I'm also not positive on Betemit's status, but I think he's signed through 2009. There's also some question on Posada, but for now I'm assuming he's a catcher.

That leaves a lot of work. Center field, first base, backup outfielder, additional bench player, three more starters, and probably 6 more guys in the bullpen. Obviously some will be filled with guys on the team. Phil Coke certainly looks likely to fill a bullpen spot, if he doesn't get turned into a starter. Brian Bruney also looked great and is a pretty good assumption for a bullpen spot. So let's add those two.

13. Phil Coke (Reliever)
14. Brian Bruney (Reliever)

Here's where we start venturing away from "Here are the sure things" into "What would you do?".

I think Brett Gardner is a good bet for some spot on this team. He's either going to be the starting centerfielder or the backup outfielder I suspect, depending on whether the Yankees sign a free agent centerfielder. Personally, I'd pass and give Gardner a shot. Risky, yes, because if he hits like he did when he first got called up, that's a huge hole that will do a lot of damage to the lineup. But if he can hit even halfway decent, his speed and strong defense will allow him to fill the centerfield and 9th in the order spots at least until Austin Jackson is ready. For me, I'm going to fill him into my starting centerfielder spot.

15. Brett Gardner (Centerfield)

The fourth outfielder should probably be either Melky or Christian. I've soured on Melky at this point, and I think it might be better to go with Christian, who can be used as a pinch runner as well.

16. Justin Christian (Backup Outfielder)

Let's see, back to that bullpen. Four more spots to fill, and no easy choices. Sanchez and Melancon both interest me, but they might not be ready. There's also Marte to consider, who has an option that may get picked up. He struggled in August but looked good in September. If Sanchez or Melancon seem ready, I'd let him walk and take the draft pick...if they're not, the Yanks might need him. Veras struggled toward the end of the year, but he was overall solid, and while he may not be a closer or even setup man, I think he can be a useful reliever. Edwar is more difficult, because he got REALLY terrible in August and September. Robertson didn't look fantastic but he did have a good strikeout rate; I'd give him another shot. A long man might be nice as well, but it could depend on who makes the team as a starter. I'll give it to Dan Giese for now because he did look solid enough and I think the potential starting rotation guys that don't make the team may be better served starting in AAA until they're needed.

17. Jose Veras (Reliever)
18. David Robertson (Reliever)
19. Damaso Marte (Reliever)
20. Dan Giese (Long Reliever)

That leaves us with three starters, a first baseman, and then the last bench guy. Start with an easy one, how about first base? Well, he may not want to come, but I throw money at Mark Teixeira. He's young enough, he's very good defensively, he's a good hitter as well.

21. Mark Teixeira (First Base)

How about those three starters? Again, one is an easy choice if he's willing to come here, and that's CC Sabathia. He gives the Yanks the ace they need, and costs only draft picks. I'm a bit concerned about overuse (over 250 innings pre playoffs? Yikes), but I'd still throw the money at him. That gives you CC as your number 1, Wang as your number 2. I'm making Joba the number 5 for these purposes due to his likely innings restrictions...he'll probably need to serve as the 5th starter to keep the innings down. So the Yanks still need a 3rd and 4th. First off, I'd like Mussina to return. I'm not so sure he will, however. If he agrees to then I absolutely resign him and plug him into the rotation. If he doesn't I suppose Andy Pettitte can replace him, but I'm somewhat concerned about Pettitte right now. For the other spot, you can use one of the kids (Aceves, Hughes), but you can argue relying on the kids without a real backup plan is what hurt the Yankees this year. Also Hughes might be best served by spending a little time in AAA. I'd like to sign an innings eater...perhaps Lowe or Garland. There's also a possibility that both Pettitte and Moose return, but I'd personally rather avoid Andy unless Mussina retires. I wouldn't want to sign both Lowe and Garland though, there's not much of a need for the Yankees to sign two middle rotation guys to "long term" contracts (by that I mean longer than the one or maybe two years Pettitte would probably want). Also, AJ Burnett has the most upside of any of these guys except CC, but may also cost more money/more years than is ideal, and the injury risk is there.

22. CC Sabathia (Starter)
23. Mike Mussina (Starter)
24. Derek Lowe (Starter)

And that last bench spot can go to anyone, it doesn't really matter at this point. Preferably a slugger of some kind, but I'm not sure who offhand.

This would give the Yanks a 2009 team of:

1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
4. Mark Teixeira (1B)
5. Xavier Nady (RF)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Jorge Posada (C)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Brett Gardner (LF)

Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien Ming Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Derek Lowe
5. Joba Chamberlain

Bullpen:

1. Mariano Rivera
2. Damaso Marte
3. Brian Bruney
4. Phil Coke
5. Jose Veras
6. David Robertson
7. Dan Giese

Bench:

1. Wilson Betemit
2. Justin Christian
3. Jose Molina
4. ?

Not too bad. The lineup isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the past, but it's potentially very solid and would help the improved starting rotation and (hopefully) improved bullpen.

Game #1 coming soon

Game #1 is in roughly 11 hours now. The final roster is set, and as it turns out, Rasner didn't make it after all, despite Girardi saying he wanted a long man. Instead both Ohlendorf and Bruney made it, while Albaladejo also made the team (although he'll likely be replaced as soon as Pettitte is ready). Patterson did not and was apparently never in the running, although he certainly thought he was. Girardi did imply that there would be a long man at some point, likely when the bullpen appears to be getting worn out, so it's possible we'll still see Rasner soon.

I found my overall predictions, so here they are based on not much more than gut instincts (I'm a stat guy in many ways, but I just don't have any real interest in forming some projection system to mathematically determine likely numbers...more power to those that do though, I enjoy seeing them). Obviously, these numbers aren't going to pan out, because guys will get hurt, guys will be ineffective, guys will get called up. But I don't predict for injuries or anything, so these are theoretical predictions if the 25 man roster as it stands right now (plus Pettitte and minus Albaladejo) plays the entire season intact. It won't, but I'm not predicting for that.

I'm also not entirely happy with some of them because I originally did it with the idea that Duncan and Betemit would split time at first. I altered my original predictions a bit to account for more playing time for Giambi, a lot less for Betemit, and probably a decent amount less for Duncan (especially since I also had to add Ensberg) but I didn't want to rework the whole thing, so they're not perfect. I also stuck Phil at 160 IP, no idea what his limit is.

Alex Rodriguez: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs
Bobby Abreu: .291/.398/.470, 19 Home Runs, 103 RBIs, 23 SBs
Hideki Matsui: .288/.370/.482, 23 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 3 SBs
Jorge Posada: .280/.384/.483, 21 Home Runs, 86 RBIs, 1 SB
Robinson Cano: .317/.362/.491, 18 Home Runs, 101 RBIs, 5 SBs
Derek Jeter: .312/.380/.454, 14 Home Runs, 82 RBIs, 19 SBs
Jason Giambi: .252/.392/.502, 32 Home Runs, 91 RBIs, 0 SBs
Johnny Damon: .275/.358/.435, 14 Home Runs, 64 RBIs, 21 SBs
Melky Cabrera: .284/.341/.414, 11 Home Runs, 65 RBIs, 11 SBs
Shelley Duncan: .243/.320/.488, 11 Home Runs, 40 RBIs, 1 SB
Wilson Betemit: .249/.338/.451, 8 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 2 SBs
Jose Molina: .242/.281/.341, 2 Home Runs, 21 RBIs, 0 SBs
Morgan Ensberg: .250/.354/.445, 7 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 1 SB

Chien Ming Wang: 19-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 118 Ks, 211 IP
Andy Pettitte: 17-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 137 Ks, 210 IP
Phil Hughes: 12-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 142 Ks, 160 IP
Ian Kennedy: 12-8, 4.12 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 139 Ks, 165 IP
Mike Mussina: 11-9, 4.68 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 85 Ks, 130 IP
Joba Chamberlain: 9-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 145 Ks, 142 IP
Mariano Rivera: 3-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 70 Ks, 72 IP, 34 Saves
Kyle Farnsworth: 2-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 60 Ks, 61 IP
LaTroy Hawkins: 3-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 32 Ks, 58 IP
Ross Ohlendorf: 4-4, 4.15 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 55 Ks, 65 IP
Brian Bruney: 2-5, 4.40 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 70 Ks, 66 IP
Billy Traber: 1-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 22 Ks, 35 IP

Traber's numbers are also partly based on the idea that he'd be primarily a guy who faces lefties. If he gets into facing righties often I'd expect more innings but a higher ERA and WHIP.

Opening Day Nearing...

So as you can see I stopped doing the predictions, because frankly I've been too busy. I may still have them written down somewhere and if I do, I'll post them without any real explanation just for the heck of it.

The season starts Monday for the Yankees, and the roster is close to being finalized. I surprisingly (to me) wasn't that far off, although it isn't set yet. I had Nick Green rather than Morgan Ensberg, but the original post went up before Ensberg was even a possibility. And it looks like Rasner will make the roster, while Patterson has really opened some eyes and could get that last spot.

Looks to me like we have 24 spots essentuiually filled, and a three man race for the final spot.

1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Robinson Cano
4. Jorge Posada
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Jason Giambi
10. Wilson Betemit
11. Jose Molina
12. Shelley Duncan
13. Morgan Ensberg
14. Chien Ming Wang
15. Mike Mussina
16. Andy Pettitte
17. Ian Kennedy
18. Phil Hughes
19. Mariano Rivera
20. Joba Chamberlain
21. LaTroy Hawkins
22. Kyle Farnsworth
23. Billy Traber
24. Darrell Rasner
25. ?

Traber's the only non Igawa lefty left as far as I remember, with Henn on the DL and Phillips sent down. He's pretty much made the team unless Girardi changes his mind about carrying a lefty. As for the long man spot that Girardi has said he wants, Igawa hasn't pitched well at all, and Karstens appears to have been injured today, which leaves Rasner as the only real option (and the person I would have picked anyway).

That leaves one spot. Seems like it's a three man race at this point, between Ross Ohlendorf, Brian Bruney, and Scott Patterson. Ohlendorf seems least likely to me right now (with 2 more games remaining for that to change). He's pitched very well but has allowed the most hits out of the three (none have walked a lot of guys) and in theory could gain some benefit from being in AAA for a little bit. Patterson has pitched far and away better than any of the three, and better than anyone in camp too. It's not even close. But he's also never pitched above AA, so they may want to see what he can do in AAA first. Bruney has pitched very well and probably has the least to gain from being sent to the minors; at this point he'd just be sitting around waiting for a callup.

All three have options remaining as is my understanding, so that wouldn't factor in. I think it's between Bruney and Patterson right now, and it will depend solely on whether Patterson was ever really "in the race" or whether it was always intended he'd be sent down unless every other reliever was god awful. Ohlendorf still has a shot though.

The Moose

According to a few different people, Mark Feinsand and Peter Abraham amond others) Mike Mussina had Phil Hughes' locker moved from between Pettitte and Pavano to the spot next to his. Ian Kennedy is already on the other side of Mussina.

I've always been a fan of Mussina. He gets a lot of criticism, some deserved, some not, but I'll always remember some of his biggest games for the Yankees. Remember the Jeter Flip? Moose was the one who had the Yankees in a position to win by pitching a shutout. Remember Aaron Boone hitting that home run off Wakefield? Of course you do, but it's unfortunate that less people remember the fact that if not for Mike Mussina brilliantly escaping an inherited first and third, nobody out jam followed by two more scoreless innings, the Yankees are headed home. Seriously, if Mike Mussina allows a sacrifice fly and then a double play, everyone would have said he did a good job, and yet the Yankees would have lost. But he got out of it without allowing a run. Everytime someone claims he can't pitch in big spots (and sometimes he has come up short, like...you know...most pitchers), there's an example of him being out of his element (relieving), pitching in one of the biggest games of his life in one of the toughest situations you'll ever see.

Anyway, I digress. Mussina had a good 2006, but otherwise has struggled for years now. Last year he was overall pretty terrible. But the bottom line is the Yankees need someone to fill a rotation spot. With Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba all on innings counts, Wang and Pettitte alone aren't going to cut it. Maybe you can find someone at this point that can put up slightly better numbers than Mussina (but I stress maybe, pickings are slim), but it may not be so easy to find that veteran presence. Wang's a kid too, in baseball years. Pettitte's a veteran presence, but he has his own problems to deal with. That leaves Mike Mussina, and you know what, Ian and Phil can do a heck of a lot worse. I think it's great to see Mussina step up, ready and willing to teach the kids whatever he can, and not just because someone tells him he should. One of these kids could be knocking him out of the rotation this year, but he's still willing to teach them. I think thats great. So thumbs up to Mike Mussina, and if Hughes and Kennedy can have anywhere close to the career and consistency Mussina has had prior to 2004, Yankee fans will be very, very happy with the results.

Dynasty? Really?

So apparently a book about the new Red Sox dynasty is coming out.

Look, the Red Sox are an excellent team right now. And yes, they're the only team so far this decade to win it all more than once. But dynasty? Oh come on. The 2004 team and the 2007 team aren't even that similar. You have a few of the same core players (Ortiz, Manny, Varitek, Schilling) and a couple guys who are steady contributors but not the big time players (Wakefield, Timlin) but beyond that, not a heck of a lot. No Papelbon, no Pedroia in 2004. Youkilis wasn't a full time player. No Beckett, no Matsuzaka, no Lester, no Lowell, no Lugo, no Crisp, no Drew, no Okajima, the list goes on. Hell, Boston got swept in the first round in 2005, and then didn't even come in second in their division in 2006. Am I supposed to believe the amazing ability of the 2004 team carried over all the way to 2007 to form this new dynasty?

Could this team become a dynasty? Sure. I'm not trying to bash the Red Sox here, they have a very good team. But the 2004 team has little to do with the 2007 team, and even if they had almost the same players, it takes a lot more than two wins in four years to be a dynasty. The Blue Jays did better than that in the early 90s, winning back to back...are they a dynasty? Of course not.

Anyway, hey, spring training is here!

Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez

2007 Stats: .314/.422/.645, 54 Home Runs, 156 RBIs, 24 Stolen Bases

Last year, Alex had one of the better seasons you'll ever see. He easily won the MVP...now, can he repeat it?

Probably not, but that's not exactly a knock on him. When someone has a year like that, it's not fair to expect them to put up those numbers again. That doesn't mean he can't have another MVP caliber season however, and I fully expect him to. I think he may have turned a bit of a corner last year in that he seemed to have stopped letting the crowd and media reactions dictate how he plays. In 2006 it was clear that he was effected by the booing, and while he didn't really have to deal with it much this past season (getting off to such a strong start in April with two walkoffs will do that for you), he had plenty of other things going on that the media wouldn't leave him alone about. It didn't appear to effect him at all, and if he can keep that going, there's no reason to think he can't continue to put up MVP caliber seasons for a bit longer.

Prediction: .306/.411/.598, 45 Home Runs, 142 RBIs, 22 SBs

Yeah, it's down a little, but I'd sign for those numbers right now, and really, who wouldn't?

Predictions

Leading up to the start of the season, I'm going to start taking a look at the players who will be on the team (barring injury, of course). A little early, sure, but pitchers and catchers are reporting soon, and I don't intend to do more than one a day (and I know I won't have one every single day), so now's a good time to start. I'll start out with guys we know (again, barring injury) will be on the team, and hopefully by the time I get to the end, some of the other spots will be a little clearer.